Abstract
This study examined the export dynamics of major fruits and their processed products, employing the Markov Chain Technique to assess trade patterns and pinpoint promising export markets. The analysis underscored the growth potential in secondary agriculture, particularly through value addition. In 2022-23, fresh fruit exports generated ₹5,658.9 crore, while processed fruit exports amounted to ₹5,944.49 crore, with respective compound annual growth rates of 16.31 and 13.62 per cent over the past two decades. The importance of value addition was evident in the substantial export revenue from processed mango products, which brought in ₹2,937.17 crore compared to ₹378.49 crore for fresh mangoes alone. Key stable markets for processed mangoes include the U.K., Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia, while the UAE served as a crucial market for both fresh and processed mangoes. Fresh grapes also contributed significantly to exports, earning ₹2543.42 crore with an impressive growth rate of 18.58 per cent; primary export markets for grapes include the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and the UAE. Overall, secondary agriculture presents significant untapped potential for processed products, offering valuable opportunities to improve farmers' livelihoods.
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