Export Revenues Research Articles

Potential Domestic Energy System Vulnerabilities from Major Exports of Green Hydrogen: A Case Study of Australia

Australia has clear aspirations to become a major global exporter of hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels and as part of the drive to reduce CO2 emissions, as set out in the National Hydrogen Strategy released in 2019 jointly by the federal and state governments. In 2021, the Australian Energy Market Operator specified a grid forecast scenario for the first time entitled “hydrogen superpower”. Not only does Australia hope to capitalise on the emerging demand for zero-carbon hydrogen in places like Japan and South Korea by establishing a new export industry, but it also needs to mitigate the built-in carbon risk of its export revenue from coal and LNG as major customers, such as Japan and South Korea, move to decarbonise their energy systems. This places hydrogen at the nexus of energy, climate change mitigation and economic growth, with implications for energy security. Much of the published literature on this topic concentrates on the details of what being a major hydrogen exporter will look like and what steps will need to be taken to achieve it. However, there appears to be a gap in the study of the implications for Australia’s domestic energy system in terms of energy security and export economic vulnerability. The objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for the implications of becoming a major hydrogen exporter on Australia’s energy system. Various green hydrogen export scenarios for Australia were compared, and the most recent and comprehensive was selected as the basis for further examination for domestic energy system impacts. In this scenario, 248.5 GW of new renewable electricity generation capacity was estimated to be required by 2050 to produce the additional 867 TWh required for an electrolyser output of 2088 PJ of green hydrogen for export, which will comprise 55.9% of Australia’s total electricity demand at that time. The characteristics of comparative export-oriented resources and their interactions with the domestic economy and energy system are then examined through the lens of the resource curse hypothesis, and the LNG and aluminium industries. These existing resource export frameworks are reviewed for applicability of specific factors to export-oriented green hydrogen production, with applicable factors then compiled into a novel conceptual framework for exporter domestic implications from large-scale exports of green hydrogen. The green hydrogen export superpower (2050) scenario is then quantitatively assessed using the established indicators for energy exporter vulnerability and domestic energy security, comparing it to Australia’s 2019 energy exports profile. This assessment finds that in almost all factors, exporter vulnerability is reduced, and domestic energy security is enhanced by the transition from fossil fuel exports to green hydrogen, with the exception of an increase in exposure of the domestic energy system to international market forces.

A STUDY ON ADOPTION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN SMALL ENTERPRISES

The Small businesses are considered the backbone of industrial development. They represent the economic development model and act as the engine of growth for the same, focusing on high contribution to domestic production, significant export revenues and influential contribution to foreign exchange. Small enterprises have to compete and survive with large enterprises, which is currently one of their biggest problems. One of the reasons for this disadvantage is that small enterprises lack information technology advantages. Mostly, these enterprises fail to use information technology in business operations, severely limiting their performance and survival. Businesses must have the adequate IT infrastructure to give them a competitive advantage. This leads to a mechanism that provides the right information at the right time and place. As the use of IT accelerates in business, rapid implementation of IT enabled services in small businesses is required. Information systems are important applications of information technology in business management. However, there are still problems in the implementation of IT by these small enterprises. This paper attempts to highlight the main factors and advantages in implementing and adopting information technology in small enterprises.

How are Russia’s industries adapting to Western economic pressure? The case of gold

ABSTRACT In this article the author draws on materials including government policies, corporate and media reports, and analysis of industry trends, to describe the development of Russia’s gold industry since 2000. The growth of the sector exemplifies the Putin administration’s determination to increase production and exports in the natural resource sectors, and offers further evidence of how Russia’s ‘limited access’ system of political economy functions. The author then examines how the industry has responded to Western pressure since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This provides insight in to how the sector is faring, how it is re-orienting to non-European markets, and the practical measures corporations have taken to evade sanctions and find new suppliers. The author argues that if this industry, and other metals and mining industries, can succeed in these efforts, they will provide a boost to Russia’s effort to sure up essential export revenues.

How taste proximity affects consumer quality valuation of imported varieties: Evidence from the French food sector

AbstractConsumer tastes vary by country and influence food trade patterns. While previous literature highlights different cultural elements as either trade promoters or barriers, divergences in consumer tastes may also generate differences in the perception of the quality of products. As a consequence, consumer taste in destination countries is likely to affect the demand for imported products in a different manner according to the origin and the quality of products imported. Based on firm‐product level data on French exports, this study analyses how differences in taste proximity with French consumers across destination markets affect the export revenues of vertically differentiated varieties. To identify taste proximity, we rely on data gathered from TripAdvisor on the type of cuisine offered in restaurants all over the world. The results of this study suggest that quality of French products is more strongly appreciated and consumers are more willing to spend on high‐quality products in countries with a taste similar to that of French consumers.

Predicting The Share of Tourism Revenues In Total Exports

Tourism revenues are a significant source of income under the current account service item of countries. These revenues are not included in exports, despite being compared with the export revenues of the countries and in economics the ratio of tourism revenues to export revenues is used as an indicator. In developing economies, tourism revenues play a role in closing the current account deficit. The prediction of this rate in countries with foreign trade deficit is important in developing tourism, export and import policies for the future. In this study, multiple linear regression method (MLR), one of the traditional methods, and the artificial neural network method (ANN), one of the machine learning methods were used to estimate the rate of tourism revenues of the sample country Turkey to its export revenues. In the model of the study covering 2004-2020 period, the number of tourists received, total income from tourism, average expenditure by tourists per capita, population, total export revenue, growth rate, Euro/TL and US Dollar/TL rates were chosen as independent variables. As a result of the study, the R2 value was found to be 91.7% for ANN and 90.8% for MLR which were very close to the ideal value. According to the predicts made on the model developed based on this, the rate of Turkey's tourism income to total export income in 2025 is estimated as 31.83% according to ANN; 32.73% according to MLR while in 2030, it is estimated to be 33.25% according to ANN and 36.78% according to MLR.

Risk Management in Agricultural Business: Insurance as a Viable Option in Nigeria

Agriculture contributes to the economy, provides employment, export revenue earnings and poverty eradication. Although huge capital investment is usually involved, however, a crisis in the sector is capable of crippling the nation.
 Agriculture depends heavily on nature and because of the unpredictability of nature, a lot of natural disasters capable of taking investors out of the business are associated with farming.
 Agricultural risks are usually multi-perils, and characterized by high severity and frequency.
 The need to identify, analyze and consider economic and effective control of the risks can not be overemphasized. Hence, different control measures such as avoidance of risk, loss reduction, loss prevention, retention and risk transfer options were discussed in the paper.
 Insurance, a risk management strategy that involves the transfer of the associated uncertainties of an event or activity to a professional risk carrier was identified as a viable option that could effectively mitigate the inherent natural disasters threatening national food security. Stakeholders, especially extension personnel and those saddled with the operation of the Agricultural Insurance Scheme are admonished to create awareness and educate agro-prenuers on the scheme.

Restructuring the health education cluster in a public university

Research methodology This case was developed from the author’s personal experience as a participant in one of the health taskforce subcommittees. The author also sought the inputs of the Vice President of Health and Medical Education, the Dean of the Health Sciences College, the Student Affairs Assistant Dean of the Pharmacy College and the previous Vice President of Health and Medical Education. Moreover, secondary data were obtained from the office of the Vice President of Health and Medical Education at Qatar University (QU). Case overview/synopsis The government of Qatar has consistently provided generous funding for QU over the years. However, recent economic challenges, such as drops in oil prices, have had a negative impact on the country’s GDP and export revenue. In response, QU began to implement a new organizational structure. Specifically, the university proposed merging the three health-related colleges (health sciences, medicine and pharmacy) into a single cluster called the health education cluster. This decision was supported by a broad benchmark of approximately 40 universities worldwide, as well as input from various stakeholders within the university. Forming a cluster was expected to benefit the organization as a whole. However, the decision faced resistance and challenges that required investigation by top management. Would the new organizational structure be accepted by all? Was it feasible to have a single cluster that encompassed three distinct departments within the organization? These are examples of the questions that this case study addresses. Complexity academic level This compact case is suitable for a case study in basic undergraduate, postgraduate and advanced courses in Strategic Management at a business school. The case highlights the need to restructure an organization and the use of strategy formulation and implementation in the framework of management.

Impact of International Maritime Security Threats on Economic Development of Coastal Areas in Delta and Rivers States

With pervasive international maritime security threats in the region, especially sea piracy and oil theft, Nigeria loses huge sums of money in export revenues and this reverberates on the wellbeing of residents of coastal areas whose major means of livelihood depends on the maritime sector. The purpose of this paper was to assess the impact of international maritime security threats on economic development in coastal areas of Delta and Rivers States with particular reference to unemployment and poverty levels in the areas. This paper is built around the structural conflict theory of Marxism paradigm at state-level of analysis, which is vital in the understanding of how international maritime security is related to the exploitative nature of the capitalist system, which enabled economically advanced countries to buy cheap stolen crude oil from coastal areas in Nigeria. The sample size of the study was 385 respondents drawn from a population of 9,925 people comprising of staff from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nigeria Customs Service, Nigeria Police Force and Nigeria Maritime Administration and Safety Agency in delta and Rivers States. The population of the study equally includes staff drawn from Togolese, Benin republic and Senegalese embassies Abuja as well as operators of shipping businesses, fishing groups and oil servicing firms in Warri, Port Harcourt, Oporoza and Bonny. Primary data were collected from close-ended and open-ended questionnaire and in-depth interview. Also, data were collected from secondary source. Data from questionnaire were analysed using simple percentages and absolute frequencies, while data from in-depth interview were analysed using narrative analytic technique. Data from secondary source were analysed using relational-content analysis. Findings showed that international maritime security threats in Nigeria maritime domain increases poverty and unemployment levels in coastal areas of Delta and Rivers States as well as transnational cooperation as well as collaboration are among the effective measures in combating negative impacts of international maritime security threats in Nigeria coastal waters on coastal areas in delta and Rivers States. Among other things, it was recommended that the federal government should urgently activate the use of relevant international instruments for combating sea piracy and oil theft in the coastal areas in Rivers and Delta States for enhanced economic development.

Lobster Position Estimation Using YOLOv7 for Potential Guidance of FANUC Robotic Arm in American Lobster Processing

The American lobster (Homarus americanus) is the most valuable seafood on Canada’s Atlantic coast, generating over CAD 800 million in export revenue alone for New Brunswick. However, labor shortages plague the lobster industry, and lobsters must be processed quickly to maintain food safety and quality assurance standards. This paper proposes a lobster estimation orientation approach using a convolutional neural network model, with the aim of guiding the FANUC LR Mate 200 iD robotic arm for lobster manipulation. To validate this technique, four state-of-the-art object detection algorithms were evaluated on an American lobster images dataset: YOLOv7, YOLOv7-tiny, YOLOV4, and YOLOv3. In comparison to other versions, YOLOv7 demonstrated a superior performance with an F1-score of 95.2%, a mean average precision (mAP) of 95.3%, a recall rate of 95.1%, and 111 frames per second (fps). Object detection models were deployed on the NVIDIA Jetson Xavier NX, with YOLOv7-tiny achieving the highest fps rate of 25.6 on this platform. Due to its outstanding performance, YOLOv7 was selected for developing lobster orientation estimation. This approach has the potential to improve efficiency in lobster processing and address the challenges faced by the industry, including labor shortages and compliance with food safety and quality standards.

Impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on sugar producers in Ukraine.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages can promote health and raise revenue. Whether these taxes negatively impact domestic sugar producers, an argument often made by opponents, is understudied. We extended a simulation model based on a uniform specific volume-based tax of UAH 4/L in Ukraine. We estimated best- and worst-case scenarios for reductions in domestic sugar demand to be 162 and 23 000 metric tons. This is at worst ∼0.5% of current exports, meaning decreases in domestic demand could easily be absorbed by export markets given export trends. Due to highly protectionist sugar sector policy, sugar producers would not be able to fully substitute domestic sales revenues through increased export revenues, but the worst-case revenue gap was <0.5% of total sectoral output in recent years. Overall, introducing a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ukraine is likely to have a very limited impact on domestic sugar producers.

Effects of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in a commodity-exporting developing economy

This paper assesses the effects and transmission mechanisms of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in Mongolia, a commodity-exporting developing economy, using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Results show that boom and bust cycles in commodity and international financial markets lead to business and financial cycles in the economy as these shocks account for 30, 45, and 60 percent of domestic output, real exchange rate, and lending rate fluctuations, respectively. Commodity demand shocks have more persistent and robust effects on domestic cycles than commodity supply shocks. Trade and financial (resource export revenues, lending rate, and exchange rate) channels are essential in transmitting the shocks. Buoyant commodity demand and global liquidity shocks lead to a significant fall in the domestic lending rate, while positive commodity supply and global liquidity shocks appreciate the real exchange rate.

Assessment of soil loss using RUSLE around Mongolian mining sites: a case study on soil erosion at the Baganuur lignite and Erdenet copper–molybdenum mines

Mining constitutes an integral part of Mongolia’s national economy and dominates the country’s export revenue. At the same time, a wide range of mining impacts on soil, water resources, the atmosphere and the biosphere have been documented across the country. This case study addresses the long-term soil degradation around two mining sites located in the semi-arid steppe zone of Mongolia: the open-cast lignite mine of Baganuur about 140 km east of Ulaanbaatar, and the open-pit copper–molybdenum mine of Erdenet about 240 km northwest of Ulaanbaatar, both of which started commercial extraction in the late 1970s. For the assessment of soil erosion, the RUSLE model was applied in different seasons for the period from 1989 to 2018 at 3-year intervals, considering both climatic variation and the expansion of the mines based on maps and satellite imagery. Rainfall erosivity was identified as the most dominant factor driving soil erosion in the study regions, with mining leading to local increases in soil erodibility. The highest soil erosion rates were found in both areas in July 2018, reaching 7.88 t ha–1 month–1 in the Erdenet area and 9.46 t ha–1 month–1 in the Baganuur area. The spatial patterns of soil erosion showed higher soil loss rates were in the vicinity of the mines and adjoining industrial sites. Particularly high soil losses were identified in July 1998, July and August in 2013 and July 2018 in both mining areas. The combination of the RUSLE model, remote sensing and ground truth data as and their processing by GIS was found to be a time-saving and cost-effective technique for continuous monitoring of soil erosion and planning of preventive measures in and around mining areas.

Modeling cross-seasonal fuel savings from load shifting in the Saudi industrial sector and interlinkages to export revenues

We use a national Saudi power system dispatch optimization model to assess the implications of load shifting from the industrial sector. This model quantifies the fuel offtake, emission, and cost implications of shifting industrial loads from peak summer to off-peak winter months with industrial electricity tariffs and production levels unchanged. Then, the power sector results are used to assess macro implications –in the form export revenues. Our analysis shows that load shifting can save between $7.9 million and $17.7 million per year at the prevailing administered fuel prices and could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 584 thousand tons. Furthermore, the total cost savings range from $127.2 million to $239.4 million per year when the opportunity costs of saved fuel (mostly crude oil) are considered. These potential savings represent 8.1% of the annual fuel costs of the system. Furthermore, we recommend shifting at least 15% of total industrial load to increase fuel savings if natural gas prices are reformed. We conclude by discussing potential policy enablers and barriers to adopting load shifting in Saudi Arabia.

Impacts of the CBAM on EU trade partners: consequences for developing countries

ABSTRACT This article analyses the impact of the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on European Union (EU) trade partners, focusing especially on its potential socio-economic and external consequences for developing and emerging economies (EMDEs). It uses trade data and Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) matrices to investigate the geographically and sectorally uneven distribution of CBAM’s potential impacts. The introduction of the CBAM by the EU is still under discussion. This mechanism, which seeks to reduce the incentives for firms to outsource their carbon emissions and promote a more generalised low-carbon transition, might disproportionally expose some non-EU economies. In absolute terms, Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine are the main EU trade partners in CBAM products, and hence the most exposed countries in external and socio-economic dimensions. In relative terms, the degree of exposure of economies that export CBAM products to Europe varies substantially, with many developing economies having more than 2% of their exports and 1% of their production impacted by this measure. East European economies, mainly in the Balkans, as well as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Cameroon in Africa, are the most exposed as far as the external dimension is concerned. In socio-economic terms, we can also include Morocco and Tajikistan to the group of most exposed economies. In the end, promoting the substitution of highly polluting technologies with green technologies seems notably easier in Europe than in EMDEs. Many jobs, tax revenues, and export revenues will be lost if the CBAM is implemented without taking into account the specificities of the EU’s trading partners. We discuss options to mitigate adverse consequences on EMDEs.

Macroeconomic effects of the expected future decline in oil revenues for the Russian economy under capital control

Since the beginning of Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the Russian economy has faced a large number of sanctions from unfriendly states. At the beginning of 2023, Russia’s export revenues remain high. However, there are high risks of revenues decline over the horizon of several years due to restrictions on the part of unfriendly countries. Based on a general equilibrium model for the Russian economy, we analyze the impact of an anticipated shock from a reduction in future energy export revenues. First, the paper shows that the anticipated shock of a fall in export revenues leads to a short-term and medium-term increase in domestic investment. Under a closed financial account, the effect of growth in investment remains even if other export doesn’t react to currency appreciation, while under an open financial account, investment decreases. This indicates the important role of the rainy day savings factor for investment dynamics, when the possibility of savings in external financial markets is limited. Second, in the short and medium term, the impact of revenues decline is highly dependent on whether the financial account is open or closed. Under a closed financial account, the drop in macroeconomic indicators turns out to be sharp and localized in the vicinity of the period of export revenues fall. Third, the central bank’s interest rate moves in exactly opposite directions under inflation targeting regime in response to the unanticipated and anticipated export revenues shock.

Modelling the Gross Domestic Product and the Per Capita Income of Türkiye using Autoregressive Deep Learning Networks

The gross domestic product and the per capita income are leading indicators regarding the income and the wealth of nations. The gross domestic product and the per capita income can be modelled dependent on various econometric data such as the export revenue, tourism revenue, trade deficit and the industrial revenue. In this work, an alternative and novel method is presented for the modelling of the gross domestic product and the per capita income. In this study, the gross domestic product and the per capita income are modelled autoregressively employing deep learning networks namely autoregressive deep learning networks. The input data of the developed deep learning networks are taken as the past values of the modelled variable making the deep learning networks effectively autoregressive models. As application examples of the autoregressive deep learning models, the gross domestic product and the per capita income data of Türkiye for the period of 1960-2021 are separately modelled. The autoregressive deep learning networks are developed in Python programming language. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the developed models are also computed. The plots of the results of the developed autoregressive deep learning models and the performance metrics of the models show that the developed autoregressive deep learning models can be utilized to accurately model the gross domestic product and the per capita income.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HIGH-TECH PRODUCT IMPORTS AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY

The aim of this study is to explain how the current account balance of the Turkish economy is affected by high technology product imports and this trade within the framework of causality analysis. One of the most important factors affecting the current account balance of a country is the import item. As a result of the lower export revenues of the country in return for the imports, the current account balance is adversely affected. The factor that provides the highest return in the production process of the country is the production of high-tech products. While some countries are at the top in the production of high-tech products, others are in the position of importers. Countries that are importers of high-tech products generally have current account deficit problems. However, all countries are trying to build their production structures to produce high-tech products. In this study, the relationship between high technology product imports and current account deficit in the Turkish economy was tested with Granger Causality Analysis. The current account deficit data obtained from the CBRT and the import level of high technology products obtained from TURKSTAT are used monthly between 2013-2021. As a result of the analysis carried out, no causal relationship could be determined between the import of high technology products and the current account deficit.

The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities

Any disruptive changes in the competitive environment, such as the U.S.-China trade war, may influence the price volatility of crude oil and agricultural commodities. This study examines the volatility linkage between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets in the context of the U.S.-China trade war and compares the impact of the trade war with that of other exogenous shocks. The results show that the volatility of soybeans exhibits the highest level of responsiveness to the U.S.-China trade war - which is not surprising given that the U.S. agribusiness trade to China is dominated by soybeans - followed by coffee and cotton. The sizes and dynamics of the impacts of shocks are largely commodity-specific. Notably, the trade war impacts most agricultural commodities more extensively than other exogenous shocks, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recession. These findings matter not only for the decision-making of investors and portfolio managers but also for commodity-exporting and importing countries because changes in the volatility dynamics of crude oil and agricultural commodities often impact export revenues and import expenditures and consequently feed through exports to the global supply chain under exogenous shocks such as the U.S.-China trade war.

Uranium and the Macro-Economy in Niger: An Empirical Investigation

Like many commodities, uranium price is notoriously volatile, and such volatility can have serious economic consequences for countries that export them. Niger, which is the fourth-largest producer of uranium in the world, has been dealing with uranium price fluctuations since the start of its production in 1972. Since 2011, Niger is also an oil-exporting country. However, Niger is still one of the poorest countries in the world, and policymakers are keen on learning the impact of natural resource revenue on the economy. Policymakers are particularly interested in knowing whether uranium export has been a curse instead of a blessing. As such, the present study seeks to analyze, empirically, the impact of uranium price fluctuations on key macroeconomic variables in Niger. More precisely, the objective of this article is to document the existence of Dutch "disease" or lack thereof in the economy. The study uses VAR and VECM methodologies and utilizes Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, and impulse response functions to guide the analysis. These approaches allow for an empirical deeper dive into the impact of the uranium sector on the economy. The article uses annual time series data covering the period from 1977 to 2015. The data comes from three main sources, including the World Development Indicators (WDI) database, the Central Bank of West African Countries dataset (EDEN), and Niger's National Institute of Statistics (INS) dataset. The results show that Niger's economy suffered from Dutch disease from uranium export. Indeed, the Granger causality tests show that uranium export revenue cannot be used to forecast real income in Niger. Furthermore, impulse response functions confirm the above result as a shock to uranium price and the resultant effects on money supply, inflation, and the real exchange rate is consistent with the Dutch "disease" theory. In general, uranium export revenue was the source of macroeconomic imbalances observed in the country during the period considered by the study. Now that Niger is also an exporter of oil in addition to uranium, policymakers should avoid the trap of Dutch "disease" by investing natural resources revenue strategically. Given Niger's development challenges, using natural resources revenue for public investment in infrastructure, health, and education should be a priority.

Exporters' reaction to positive foreign demand shocks

AbstractI use the quasi‐natural experiment of the 2018 African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in China to analyze swine exporters' reaction to a foreign market's positive demand shock. I use the universe of Spanish firms' export transactions to China and other countries and compare the performance of swine and other exporters before and after the ASF. The ASF almost tripled Spanish swine exporters' sales to China. The increase in exports to China positively impacted export revenue and survival in other foreign markets. This positive impact was especially intense for small swine exporters.