Uranium and the Macro-Economy in Niger: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

Like many commodities, uranium price is notoriously volatile, and such volatility can have serious economic consequences for countries that export them. Niger, which is the fourth-largest producer of uranium in the world, has been dealing with uranium price fluctuations since the start of its production in 1972. Since 2011, Niger is also an oil-exporting country. However, Niger is still one of the poorest countries in the world, and policymakers are keen on learning the impact of natural resource revenue on the economy. Policymakers are particularly interested in knowing whether uranium export has been a curse instead of a blessing. As such, the present study seeks to analyze, empirically, the impact of uranium price fluctuations on key macroeconomic variables in Niger. More precisely, the objective of this article is to document the existence of Dutch "disease" or lack thereof in the economy. The study uses VAR and VECM methodologies and utilizes Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, and impulse response functions to guide the analysis. These approaches allow for an empirical deeper dive into the impact of the uranium sector on the economy. The article uses annual time series data covering the period from 1977 to 2015. The data comes from three main sources, including the World Development Indicators (WDI) database, the Central Bank of West African Countries dataset (EDEN), and Niger's National Institute of Statistics (INS) dataset. The results show that Niger's economy suffered from Dutch disease from uranium export. Indeed, the Granger causality tests show that uranium export revenue cannot be used to forecast real income in Niger. Furthermore, impulse response functions confirm the above result as a shock to uranium price and the resultant effects on money supply, inflation, and the real exchange rate is consistent with the Dutch "disease" theory. In general, uranium export revenue was the source of macroeconomic imbalances observed in the country during the period considered by the study. Now that Niger is also an exporter of oil in addition to uranium, policymakers should avoid the trap of Dutch "disease" by investing natural resources revenue strategically. Given Niger's development challenges, using natural resources revenue for public investment in infrastructure, health, and education should be a priority.