Export Restrictions Research Articles

Indonesia’s nickel export restriction policy: alternative on environmental approach for Article XI:1 GATT justification

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse the aspects of the demonstration process of Indonesia's regulation on nickel export restriction for its eligibility to be excluded from Article XI:1 GATT. It also analyses the possibility of the use of an environmental approach in the demonstration process and for an alternative measure in its implementation.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a normative research method in conducting its analysis. It analyses Indonesia's nickel export restriction policy based on the European Union's claim regarding quantitative restriction, with the international trade governance in the WTO framework, and certain international trade principles. The study also involves certain WTO jurisprudence to give a comprehensive analysis to the case.FindingsThis paper finds that Indonesia still needs to provide a complete and comprehensive demonstration to prove its eligibility for exclusion from Article XI:1. Demonstrating merely based on an economic approach is inadequate to convince the panel in Indonesia – measure relating to raw material for justification under Article XI:2. This study further finds that both parties generally focus on the economic aspect, which leaves room for conflict of interest. Other aspects with a lower probability of conflict of interest, such as the environmental approach, could be an alternative for the implementation.Originality/valueThis paper fulfils the need to provide a scientific analysis of the application of Indonesia's nickel export restriction policy, including its proceedings in WTO's dispute settlement body, which is essential for international trade governance enforcement.

Trade policy announcements can increase price volatility in global food commodity markets

Many countries use trade policy to insulate their domestic markets from price volatility. However, there is a widespread concern that such policies—particularly export restrictions—may amplify global price volatility, adversely affecting other countries. Here, using an original dataset on trade policy announcements on wheat and maize encompassing the food price crises of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011, we show that the announcement of trade policy changes can increase global price volatility. This effect applies not only to export restrictions but also to import liberalization measures and is most pronounced when markets are tight (stocks are low). Policymakers should work towards increasing stock levels to mitigate price volatility effects of trade policy changes. When markets are tight, export restrictions and import liberalizations should be avoided.

IMPACT OF SANCTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES

The purpose of this study is to assess the prospects for the functioning of the Russian economy in the context of the imposed sanctions based on a generalization of international experience. Materials and methods. The main methods were a comparative analysis of the development of countries under sanctions restrictions and a retrospective analysis of the formation of oil and gas revenues in the Russian Federation. Results. Using the example of Iran, it has been established that a high share of oil and gas budget revenues and a favorable oil price environment allows maintaining the existing economic model, however, the tightening of sanctions is gradually having a more negative impact on the welfare of the population in Iran, as well as on the state of the country's budget. The paper also examines the measures taken by the Bank of Russia in 2022 in order to ensure the stability of the country's financial system; it was found that the impact of sanctions was largely delayed due to the focus of the European Union on the priority satisfaction of its own energy needs. Conclusions. The main result of the study is the position that in assessing the effect of sanctions on the development of oil-producing countries, it is necessary to assess the equivalence between import and export restrictions in order to further assess the private effects on the welfare of the population and budget losses. The stabilization of the exchange rate allows the Russian government to lock in inflation expectations for the moment and support consumption, but this comes at the expense of financial suppression of domestic development instruments. The consequences of such decisions in the medium term may be the fall of the ruble and further weakening of the ability to finance public spending.

Interventionist industry policy to support local value-adding: Evidence from the Eastern Indonesian seaweed industry

Indonesia has long considered the use of trade restrictions to encourage the development of domestic value-adding in primary production. In 2015, these were suggested as a strategy to support the development of a national seaweed processing industry, however, such policies were ultimately not implemented on a national level. In August 2022, the eastern Indonesian province of Nusa Tenggara Timor implemented a ban on trade of raw seaweed outside of the province, aiming to increase supply of seaweed to local processors and encourage further investment in local processing capacity, with the ultimate goal of supporting increased value-adding and the development of the local seaweed processing sector. The policy was accompanied by establishment of government mandated price floors for the three seaweed processors located in the province. This article examines the execution and potential implications of this new policy with several findings. First, there is a lack of clarity in the definition of ‘value-adding’ and the types of processing developments that the regulation seeks to incentivise. Second, the province does not consistently have the capacity to process all of the seaweed it produces, exacerbating the negative impacts of trade restrictions on farmers. Third, the purpose of the price floor and its relationship to market prices in other regions is unclear and prevents differentiation by product quality, reducing incentives for farmers to increase production quantities and qualities. Fourth, the province is experiencing difficulty enforcing the seaweed export restrictions such that the ban has incentivized an increase in unofficial seaweed trade out of the province. The article recommends the regulation be revised or revoked and other strategies to support value adding in the region be considered.

Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? If So, Why? And What Is Next?

ABSTRACT: Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new era. Increasing anxiety about the labor market effects of import competition from low-wage countries, especially China, laid the groundwork but was not the catalyst for the reversal in attitudes toward globalization. Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic provided novel arguments against free trade based on global supply chain resilience, but neither the pandemic nor short-run policy response had enduring effects on trade flows. We demonstrate that global trade was remarkably resilient during the pandemic and that supply shortages would likely have been more severe in the absence of international trade. After a temporary decline in 2020, global trade in goods and services increased sharply in 2021. Russia's invasion of Ukraine raised new concerns about national security and the exposure of supply chains to geopolitical risk. This was followed by demands to diversify away from "non-friendly" countries and toward the employment of trade policy, export restrictions in particular, to halt China's technological development. The future of globalization is highly uncertain at this point, but these new policies will likely slow global growth, innovation, and poverty reduction even if they benefit certain industries in certain countries. Regarding resilience, the main goal of recent trade policy changes, measures of trade volatility or concentration can be helpful, but resilience will be elusive as long as we lack benchmarks against which policy performance can be measured.

The impact of technology export regulations on corporate R&D investments

We use a difference-in-difference research design to examine the effect of an exogenous shock to a firm’s R&D investment from Chinese regulations regarding technology exports revised in 2008. We document that these technology export restrictions (TERs) decrease a firm’s R&D investment. Specifically, the TERs reduce corporate R&D investment by 114 percent compared with that by an average firm in the sample. Additional analysis suggests that the TERs also reduce outbound direct investment and the number of firms’ patent applications. Overall, TERs prevent firms from investing in innovation projects. Hence, relaxing TERs would enhance corporate R&D investment and promote general economic development.

Scope Interpretation of Article Xi of the GATT—In Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic

In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out around the world. In order to combat the epidemic and ensure the operation of public health systems, more than 200 countries in the world have issued policies and carried out other related measures to interfere with the production and sales of medicines for COVID-19 treatment and to restrict the export of medical supplies such as masks, ventilators and protective suits. However, most of these measures seem to violate the general quantitative restriction rule of Article XI of the GATT, which makes people re-examine the interpretation and scope of application of this rule. As far as I’m concerned, this pandemic has made it clear that the prohibition under Article XI:1 GATT is overly broad, and the exceptions under Article XI:2(a) is overly narrow. This essay will analysis the scope interpretation of Article XI of the GATT in two parts. Firstly, by reviewing the Japan-Trade in Semi-Conductors case, the first part suggests that the interpretation of Article XI:1 GATT is very broad and most of the export restriction measures during the pandemic may be clarified as “other measures” further proves that. Secondly, it will consider the view that the pandemic made it clear that the exceptions under Article XI:2(a) overly narrow since the export restriction measures imposed on medical products can hardly see to be “temporarily” and the products can also difficultly see to be “essential”.

The WTO and Vaccine Supply Chain Resilience during a Pandemic

ABSTRACT Cross-border supply chains and international trade enabled the manufacturing and delivery of billions of vaccine doses to inoculate the world against the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). At the same time, the pandemic revealed how the World Trade Organization (WTO) must change to become more useful in the face of a public health emergency. This paper describes the market failures—especially on the supply side—justifying the domestic subsidies and contracting arrangements used to accelerate vaccine research and development and to increase the scale of vaccine production to save lives, livelihoods, and economic activity during a pandemic. It highlights the trade-offs associated with the US subsidies and the priority-rated contracts written for vaccines through the Defense Production Act under Operation Warp Speed. This case study reveals a rich environment in which cross-border supply chains exacerbate input shortages in ways that constrain vaccine production, highlighting the need for the WTO to embrace new forms of international policy coordination for pandemic preparedness and response. As part of a pandemic treaty, the paper proposes a plurilateral agreement on vaccine supply chain resilience that would include novel and enforceable disciplines for export restrictions, provisions to trigger coordinated subsidies across countries to jointly scale up vaccine output and input production capacity, and market surveillance initiatives on supply chain transparency.

Running red lights: Risk recognition versus follow-up implementation in the case of Germany's pandemic preparation.

The discrepancy between formal arrangements to ensure health security, as assessed in the Global Health Security Index, and COVID-19 outcomes points to a broader problem where formal risk recognition is de-coupled from potentially resource-intensive follow-up policy implementation. Germany is an extreme example of this. Pre-COVID-19, Germany's Federal Office of Civilian Protection conducted two pandemic preparation exercises based on scenarios which closely mirrored the current COVID-19 pandemic: (a) a multi-jurisdictional, multi-agency crisis management exercise assuming a global influenza pandemic and (b) a joint federal and expert-agency based risk-analysis assuming the outbreak of a modified severe acute respiratory symptom virus. While informing legal and institutional reforms, key recommendations on storing personal protective equipment (PPE) and disinfectants for front-line staff were subsequently ignored. PPE shortages initially put staff at risk, led to export restrictions on PPE, and later on hampered the country's ability to address a second wave of the pandemic. This short paper calls for a fuller exploration of factors which hinder ''implementation post-cognition.''.

Real-time monitoring of food price policy interventions during the first two years of COVID-19

COVID-19 has resulted in a shock to agrifood systems around the world, with the potential for low- and middle-income countries to be particularly affected. Although policy responses were more muted than during the 2007–2008 world food crisis, efforts to insulate from supply shocks and ensure local availability during COVID-19 have generally included export restrictions and import tariff reductions, among other responses. In an effort to enable rapid market monitoring and realignment, we develop a new indicator defined as a monthly nominal rate of protection “express” which seeks to indicate how policies enacted are affecting prices domestically in real-time in order to understand how they responded. This analysis examines changes to this indicator during the first two years of the pandemic in 24 low- and middle-income countries for the most-consumed staple cereals of the poor and food insecure. We show that gaps between domestic and international prices declined by a median of 20.3 percentage points compared to the same months in recent previous years. While policies were enacted to mitigate price increases that would have eventually been transmitted to poor consumers, other factors related to international demand and supply chain disruptions may also have contributed to the observed trend in the analyzed countries. Moreover, impacts on prices varied across countries and commodities, depending on region, net trade, and previous gap levels. Finally, this indicator can contribute to examining primary drivers of changes and conducting causal analysis to facilitate adequate agrifood policy responses to support economic recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.

ՀԱՑԱՀԱՏԻԿԻ ԱՐՏԱԴՐՈՒԹՅԱՆ ՊԵՏԱԿԱՆ ԿԱՐԳԱՎՈՐՄԱՆ ՈՒՂԻՆԵՐԸ ՀՀ ՊԱՐԵՆԱՅԻՆ ԱՆՎՏԱՆԳՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԱՊԱՀՈՎՄԱՆ ՀԱՄԱՏԵՔՍՏՈՒՄ

Food security of the population is one of the main challenges of the 21st century, which, due to the events of recent years (Artsakh war, pandemic, Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions, export restrictions) and their consequences, has become more acute. The stability of the grain sector in the country is of particular importance from the point of view of improving the food security in Armenia. Based on the study of international practice of state support for agricultural production, the results of analysis on the effectiveness of the state support tools traditionally used in different countries, as well as evaluating the state support for the development of grain production in RA, we have developed a model of state regulation of grain production, where the application of a number of realistic methods and measures is emphasized. The results of the studies document that, despite the government’s efforts to expand grain production, the grain sown areas are decreasing year by year, yield growth is not ensured, and the total growth is decreasing. Studying the international experience of state support for agricultural production, analyzing the results of the effectiveness of the state support tools traditionally used in different countries, as well as evaluating the state support for the development of grain production in RA for 2010-2021, we propose to revise the state regulation tools. In particular, to create a grain commission, form a guarantee and collateral price institute, set grain production and distribution quantities, strengthen contractual relations, form a commodity credit company and a grain price stabilization fund, apply commodity intervention, as well as promote economy-infrastructure intervention. We believe that the mentioned fundamental measures will contribute to the prospective development of grain production, ensure realistic results in the medium term, strengthen the cooperation between the state, production and science, as well as increase the self-sufficiency level of grain and, most importantly, will contribute to ensuring the food security of the Republic of Armenia.

Elevational Impact on Konjac Price Amidst Export Restrictions to China

Porang or konjac (Amorphophallus muelleri) farmers have complained about the drastic decline in the selling price of konjac. The export restriction of Indonesia’s konjac to China had resulted the excessive supply. The lower price, the weaker of bargaining power of farmer. Thus, threatened the sustainability of exports and farmers’ prosperity. Farmers were dependent on middlemen because of the lack of transportation and harvesting facilities. The study was conducted on the differences in the elevation of locations, considered Pangandaran and Purworejo Regency in September to December 2023. The analytical method used was Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Variables that significantly influence the selling price were farmers’ knowledge of konjac trade between Indonesia and China, elevation (MASL), processed konjac, duration of storage, and education level. Farmers who know that China banned export tend to sell konjac prices at very low prices because they were unable to comply with standard operating procedures for cultivation technique and post-harvest. Exports in the form of tubers have been very at risk of contamination and tuber rot. Konjac was not recommended to be stored long after harvest. Processed konjac into chips has been effective in reducing the water content so that the quality of konjac does not decrease.

ВЛИЯНИЕ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ ВНЕШНЕЙ СРЕДЫ НА БИЗНЕС-ПРОЦЕСС НАУКОЕМКИХ ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ

The article is devoted to the study of the impact of external environment uncertainty on individual links of the business process of knowledge-intensive industrial enterprises in modern Russia. The foreign economic activities of such enterprises face external market constraints and they have to change their business processes to minimize losses and maintain competitiveness.The problem is to identify the most sensitive to the imposed restrictions and the associated uncertainty of the links of the busi-ness process. The article analyzes the context of the market situation and reveals that in relation to Russia, a number of countries actively introduced export and import restrictions on high-tech products. The statistics of trade turnover of high-tech products according to the list of the Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activities with major Western partners was collected,the analysis of which illustrated the stagnation of foreign trade in high-tech products during the 2018-2021 period. Partly because of this, Russian economy is reorienting high-tech exports and imports to Asian countries, as well as carrying out measures to en-sure import substitution of high-tech products. The article outlines the studied area of management of knowledge-intensive in-dustrial enterprises to model a typical business process – decision-making in production, innovation and personnel policy. The model of business process consisting of production and organizational cycle is built, management flows and interrelations are mapped. The links of the business process sensitive to uncertainty are highlighted: drawing up a contract, procurement, R&D and maintenance. Risks which cause sensitivity of these links of business process are described. It is concluded that in the manage-ment of business process of knowledge-intensive industrial enterprises the process link must be replaceable and sustainable, which will allow to avoid serious risks.

ВІЙНА ЯК ЧИННИК ПІДВИЩЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕБЕЗПЕКИ В УКРАЇНІ

The work examines the impact of the war on the state of the macroeconomic environment of the country and the daily life of people within it from the point of view of determining the degree of manifestation of socio-economic danger. The importance and relevance of the conducted analysis is substantiated, since its results are aimed at improving measures to reduce the level of socio-economic danger not only in the war, but also in the post-war periods. The study of existing scientific developments made it possible to note that modern theoretical achievements are more oriented to the study of approaches to the preservation of social and economic security through the use of potential opportunities of all factors within the limits of a certain economic system. At the same time, the presented scientific publications do not fully take into account the negative impact of external factors, in this case – war. The article presents the essential characteristics of socio-economic danger as the antithesis of security, it is noted that aspects of security and danger always coexist within the borders of any country, therefore it should be about increasing the level of security against the background of reducing the manifestations of danger. The tools for researching the state of the national economy are characterized, namely, complex diagnostic systems and indicators for determining the degree of manifestations of threatening processes in the economy. Based on the use of the latter, the most acute problems in the national economy were identified, related to the acceleration of the transformation of threats, as forms of manifestation of danger, from potential to real. In the work, it is calculated that in the war year 2022 there will be a significant drop in real GDP by almost a third. Tax revenues to the state budget have decreased significantly, especially taxes on the profits of enterprises. The reasons for the decline in production include the destruction of production facilities and energy infrastructure, logistical restrictions, including export restrictions, and the reduction of activity in almost all branches of the economy. Despite the destructive nature of the war, Ukrainian society quickly adapted to the difficulties of the war period and found reserves (internal and external) to counteract the danger from the aggression of the Russian Federation and accelerate the steps to victory.

The Impact of Log Export Restrictions on China’s Log Import

The Impact of Log Export Restrictions on China’s Log Import

The significance of sustainability of grain production in the consumer basket

This scientific article reveals the importance of ensuring the stability of grain production in the consumer basket and the activities of grain processing enterprises, the dynamics of wheat production in agricultural holdings of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the years 2000-2022 and the quality of grain. grain products are discussed theoretically and experimentally, research and analysis of research results are conducted. Conservation and stability of all cultivated cereal crops and their intended use is one of the main challenges facing the national economy today, as a result of which the whole world is threatened by food shortages. Because of the international situation, disruptions in global production chains and logistical problems, many countries impose export restrictions on food commodities, so the role and importance of the agricultural sector in ensuring food security for the global population is increasing day by day. Wheat, in particular, is one of the most common cereal crops. Wheat bread is highly valued for its taste, nutritional value and digestibility, so it is still a staple in the consumer basket. The urgent issue is to ensure the stability of grain production in our country through the rational use of the available resources and capacities, guaranteed supply of the population with agricultural products, to further increase productivity and interest, introduction of the achievements of science and modern approaches in the sphere.

Features of the Car Import into Primorsky Region

Primorsky Region is actively involved into foreign trade with neighboring Asian countries. For past 30 years, the Region has been an important trade and logistics link in the chain of Russian automobile imports, and the center for sales and service of imported passenger cars in the Far East. Because of the export restrictions from a several countries that directly affected the car market, there have been changes in recent months in the field of car imports that are significant for all market participants — consumers, intermediaries, manufacturers-exporters. The purpose of the study is to update trends in the import of passenger cars in the Primorsky Region and assess current events in terms of the developing this area of economic activity. The article reflects the features of car imports from Japan and the Republic of Korea up to 2021, analyzes the changes that have occurred in the field of car imports in the Primorsky Region in 2022-2023, and considers the aspect of increasing car imports from China that is relevant for the current stage of the car market development. The articles main conclusion is that the car market that had developed in the Primorsky Region by 2021, offering mainly used Japanese cars, will diversify its structure and sales conditions from 2022, including through the cars import from China. At the same time, Vladivostok has many reasons to maintain its status as a center of automobile trade in the Far East.

Possibilities of using wood and wood materials in the construction of the Republic of Karelia

The timber industry complex in the Republic of Karelia is one of the leading industrial complexes in the region. In modern conditions, the timber industry of the republic is experiencing difficulties due to export restrictions on the exportation of manufactured products. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential of the timber industry of the Republic of Karelia and identify the possibilities of using wood and wood materials in construction in the republic and in neighbouring regions of the North-West of the Russian Federation. The data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Republic of Karelia were used as the main sources of empirical indicators. The methods of economic and mathematical modelling, retrospective and statistical analysis are used as research methods in the article. Based on the results of the analysis, the main directions of wood use in construction in the territory under consideration and in the territory of neighbouring regions are determined. Special attention is paid to the development of enterprises of deep processing of wood and the use of products of a high degree of factory readiness in construction.

Потенциал развития экспорта российской и казахстанской агропродукции в Китай

Due to their vast territory suitable for agriculture, surplus production of agricultural products and geographical proximity to the northern and western provinces of China, Russia and Kazakhstan can take significant positions in the growing Chinese market. The development of international transport corridors with access to China will contribute to the increase of the competitive capabilities of the two countries and the growth of export volumes. In this context, the interstate railway corridor with Dostyk border station (Kazakhstan) as a connecting link seems very promising. The development of this direction of agro-logistics will contribute to the inclusion of Siberian and Ural regions of the Russian Federation in international trade, will be an important factor in the international role of the Republic of Kazakhstan by attracting transit cargo from Russia. The transport corridor through Dostyk is also relevant in the context of sanctions against Russia and the need to reorient trade flows with unfriendly countries to other directions. The article identifies the types of agricultural products and regions of the cargo area that are the most promising for exports from Russia and Kazakhstan through Dostyk. To assess the potential for the development of this transport corridor, the analysis of agricultural cargo export flows from Russia and Kazakhstan to China in terms of ports and border crossings is presented, the problems and bottlenecks of agro-export logistics of Russia and Kazakhstan are studied, the economic efficiency of traditional railway and container transportation is compared, and the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products supplies to China through Dostyk in comparison with other logistics directions is estimated. The findings indicate that the regions of the cargo zone of Russia and Kazakhstan have high shipping potential for railway deliveries to China through Dostyk. However, its implementation is possible under a number of conditions: changes in railway transportation tariffs and removal of export restrictions, while intensifying negotiations between countries with China to reduce the level of customs and administrative barriers.

Лесной комплекс Дальневосточного федерального округа: тенденции развития в 2022–2023 гг.

An assessment is made of the impact of ongoing sanctions shocks, as well as internal export restrictions on the national and Far Eastern forest complexes. It is shown that the crisis of 2022 only aggravated the situation previously formed by institutional innovations in the forest regions of the Far East. The crisis did not have a catastrophic impact on the state of timber industry enterprises, which managed to both partially maintain external demand and partially offset the ban on wood exports by supplying the domestic market. In 2023 compared to 2022, despite the increase in profitability from the supply of products to the foreign market as a result of the rising dollar exchange rate, improving conditions in the Chinese market due to the easing of covid restrictions, the negative effect of sanctions shocks (market closures, restrictions in logistics, reduction in imports of equipment and materials) have intensified. As a result, there was an increase in losses of enterprises due to delays in the transportation of timber cargo, an increase in transport costs, the cost and delivery time of imported spare parts, which led to a decrease in production activity in the main forest regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, which has negative social consequences, especially in remote settlements. In conditions of low population density, the development of domestic demand for timber products in the Far East, even with government support, is uncompetitive in comparison with external demand, which is increasingly oriented toward the monopsony Chinese market