Export Prospects Research Articles

Defence industrial restructuring in Europe

Across Europe defence costs are being cut and industry is restructuring at a rapid pace. Defence producers have to consider at least the trends in defence planning and force posture, the evolution of public expenditure and of military expenditure, military techology development and the prospects for successful exports. However, six years after the end of the Cold War it is not unreasonable to ask governments to clarify their thinking on the issue of security and defence policy.

The Russian Forest Sector: Production, Consumption, and Export Prospects

The forest sector of Russia is described at the country level of detail, including a description of the growth of the forest resource over time and of the historical utilization of the forest resource, with a focus on the shares of output allocated for domestic consumption and for export. The resource available for the future then is presented in terms of economic accessibility. Longer-term export opportunities are identified using a scenario analysis generated by the Russian Forest Sector Assessment Model. 14 figures, 12 references.

US North Slope gas and Asian LNG markets

Prospects for export of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Alaska's North Slope are assessed. Projected market conditions to 2010 show that new LNG capacity beyond announced expansions will be needed to meet regional demand and that supplies will probably come from outside the region. The estimated delivered costs of likely suppliers show that Alaska North Slope gas will not be competitive. The alternative North Slope gas development strategies of transport and sale to the lower 48 states and use on the North Slope for either enhanced oil recovery or conversion to liquids are examined. The alternative options require delaying development until US gas prices increase, exhaustion of certain North Slope oil fields, or advances occur in gas to liquid fuels conversion technology.

Developments in the Global Supply of Arms: Opportunity and Motivation

Likely trends in the supply side of the arms trade are examined, considering the opportunities and motives available to key actors and the changing international system that constrains their options. Among suppliers, the United States remains predominant, if somewhat more commercially than hegemonically oriented than in the past. Despite reassertive efforts and lower prices in the arms field, Russian export prospects are questionable, given uncertainties over budgetary investments, lagging technology, and potentially unreliable parts production or supply. West European sales are likely to remain confined to niches, since there still are no single unified European Union production and marketing mechanisms. China, the least predictable supplier, remains on an economic arms sales push. The depressed market for third-tier suppliers seems likely to persist. The global move to restructure defense industries is likely to lead to a shift from overproduction of finished arms, with many dual-use products emerging instead.

Measures of External Competitiveness for Germany

This paper assesses Germany's external competitive position from several angles. It first examines movements in several real exchange rate indices. The analysis of competitiveness is then supplemented by using the so-called constant market share approach, and finally by examining briefly both pressures on profit margins in the tradable goods sector as well as export prospects. A key conclusion of the analysis is that the deterioration of Germany's external competitiveness suggested by some commonly used indicators of the real appreciation of the deutsche mark, such as those based on relative unit labor costs in manufacturing, is generally exaggerated.

Measures of External Competitiveness for Germany

This paper assesses Germany's external competitive position from several angles. It first examines movements in several real exchange rate indices. The analysis of competitiveness is then supplemented by using the so-called constant market share approach, and finally by examining briefly both pressures on profit margins in the tradable goods sector as well as export prospects. A key conclusion of the analysis is that the deterioration of Germany's external competitiveness suggested by some commonly used indicators of the real appreciation of the deutsche mark, such as those based on relative unit labor costs in manufacturing, is generally exaggerated.

The Energy Industries of the Former USSR: A Mid-Year Survey

A specialist on the energy industries of the former USSR assesses trends in the production of oil, natural gas, coal, and electrical power during 1992 and thereafter, and surveys prospects for performance based on developments through June of 1993. Particular attention is devoted to the impacts of changing organizational and pricing policies on energy production, the effects of disrupted interenterprise linkages as a result of the USSR's disintegration, and the possible effects on export prospects of changes in the level of domestic consumption and foreign demand. Coverage includes information about major joint-venture extraction projects and proposed export pipelines. 9 tables, references.

Evaluating collaborative programmes

International collaboration in the development and production of defence equipment is said to reduce procurement costs and improve export prospects. However, critics argue that joint ventures cost more than national programmes, are more prone to cost escalation and take longer to complete. These claims are evaluated by comparing collaborative and national military aircraft using a variety of performance indicators. The evidence suggests that for military aircraft collaboration leads to cost savings and greater scales of output, with only limited support for the view that joint projects take longer to develop. There is little evidence that collaborative projects perform better in export markets than their national rivals.

Agricultural Export Prospects for Sub‐Saharan Africa

Agricultural Export Prospects for Sub‐Saharan Africa

Identifying the best market prospects for US agricultural exports

Market prospects for US agricultural exports through 1994 were predicted using econometric models which estimated US export growth rate as a function of the countries' trade-related and macroeconomic variables. The models used include an approximation of the predictive model proposed by the FAS in 1990 (MFAS) and one which reflects the authors' view that additional variables need consideration (SR). The SR model turned out to be the better-fitting specification and predicted the top markets to be Mexico, Hong Kong, Guyana, Canada, Japan, Turkey, France, Thailand, South Korea, and Costa Rica. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Hungary's export prospects in the EC market

Political changes in Eastern Europe will help to cement improving economic relations between those countries and the EC, accelerating a trend that flows in part from the continuing economic difficulties in Eastern Europe. Hungary has little alternative but to seek to continue strengthening these ties. Membership in the EC could lead to an expansion of Hungarian exports to the Communities of some 48 percent, with the main gains occurring for meats, iron and steel, fruit and vegetables, textiles, and clothing. Even if membership is unattainable, Hungary stands to gain considerably from an improvement in its standing in the EC pyramid of privileges, and must seek some closer relationship with the EC, encompassing agriculture as well as manufactures, and tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

Natural Gas Liquids: Canadian Supply And Demand Prospects In The 1990s

Introduction After a decade of major capacity expansions in natural gas processing, the Western Canadian natural gas liquids (NGLs) sector faces an uncertain future. Riding on the buoyant prospects for natural gas exports, the NGLs production will peak in the 1990s; the uncertainty is in NGLs demand. NGLs may be used in miscible flooding schemes for enhanced oil recovery, as diluents for the pipelining of heavy oil and bitumen, as petrochemical feedstocks and directly as fuel or in blends with other fuels. Western Canada ought to be poised for significant expansions in most petroleum and petrochemical sectors. Therefore, the NGLs demand prospects in the 1990s ought to be good. However, with unpredictable world oil prices such expansion plans may recede into the next century, leaving western Canada awash in surplus NGLs. With the help of two models developed at the Alberta Research Council, this paper examines the Western Canadian NGLs prospects in the 1990s. The two models are a continental natural gas model (AGAS) and a Canadian liquid fuels model (ALF01). Natural Gas Model Description AGAS is an optimizing, multi-period, clairvoyant energy supply demand model. Because of its large size, linear programming is the only practical optimization technique. A linear programming model simulates a perfect market economy, which maximizes the sum of the producer and consumer surpluses. While it can only approximate reality, the solution represents an upper bound on what the energy sector can achieve, provided that the proper policy and economic choices are taken. By taking ‘snapshots’ of the energy sector of the economy at various time intervals, we can trace its behavior over time. Normally, the model has a 24-year time horizon, covering 8 time periods of 3 years each. All investment and production decisions are solved simultaneously over time; thus the model has perfect foresight. While this knowledge is never completely available, the model permits us to test various scenarios involving different perceptions of future developments. AGAS is a partial equilibrium model for natural gas supply and demand in North America. Supply functions are estimated for four gas supply regions. Demand curves are specified for each time period and in each of nine consuming regions. The existing gas processing and pipeline network, with capacities and tariffs, is specified. Separate gas deliverability profiles are specified for each producing region. Policy constraints, such as export and import limits, reserve or deliverability tests, can be incorporated into the model. Investment decisions, including the development of new gas supplies and the building of new gas processing plants and pipelines, the level of production of gas from each producing region for each time period, the capacity utilization level of existing facilities, the level of consumption of gas in each consuming region, the city gate price for gas in each consuming region — all these are determined endogenously. The model seeks that development and production profile of the natural gas industry in North America that maximizes the present value of the sum of consumer and producer surpluses generated over the time horizon of the model.

Soviet energy export prospects

The Soviet Union produces 20% of world energy but since 1988 this is in decline. Awakening consumerism and a sea-change in the structure of foreign trade and internal investment are placing this key industry into unprecedented uncertainty. The difference between success and failure goes beyond the 1988 peak of six million barrels daily of exports in oil equivalent. The article quantifies the key areas of energy uncertainty as equal in volume to total OPEC output and sees the long-term changes of success more than ever dependent on coordinated planning and investment as well as on market reality.

Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe: Its Genesis, Adjustment Process, and Impact on Developing Countries

ABSTRACTIncreasing strains on self‐sufficiency within the block of East European command economies resulted in the dramatic decision to change over to an economic system largely based on market forces. The painfulness of the ensuing transformation process will be mitigated somewhat by supportive economic policies of the West, including the European Community which is itself aiming at complete economic integration by the end of 1992. The consequences for the developing countries of these far‐reaching policy changes in East and West are likely to be negative, at least in the immediate future. This is true for the volume of development assistance given by East and West, as well as for the export prospects of developing countries. Favourable effects might at best be expected in the longer run.

Non-Discriminatory Discrimination: Special and Differential Treatment Under the GATT for Developing Countries

Developing countries have long been strong supporters of a non-discriminatory rule-based multilateral system, on the grounds that as economically small units they would otherwise be subject to bilateral pressure from larger powers. At the same time, they have equally been committed to special-and-differential (S & D) treatment for themselves under GATT rules. Their approach has been to argue that trade problems of developing countries are special from those of developed countries; balance-of-payments problems, viewed by them as endemic to low-income countries, make liberalisation difficult, and import substitution strategies suggest that liberalisation is, anyway, undesirable. Poor export prospects (export pessimism) imply they need different treatment from developed countries in order to grow; that is, trade preferences in developed country markets. Special and differential also became a bloc-wide strategy jointly pursued, reflecting the premise that developing countries are jointly and simultaneously special and differential in their trade problems. This is, however, changing. In the Uruguay Round developing countries have shown themselves remarkably adept at moving away from the earlier, somewhat passive, bloc-wide S & D approach. In a surprising range of negotiating groups, countries have actively pursued country over bloc-wide interests, and in an active way involving a willingness to take on new GATT disciplines. While S & D is far from having been abandoned as a principle of the trading system, the approach seems to be one of protecting and preserving what is there, rather than pushing for further enhancement. The reasons for these changes are, as always, multi-faceted. Strong growth performance in the more outward-oriented developing countries (Korea, and other NICs) has weakened the intellectual commitment to import substitution. What exactly S & D has yielded developing countries in concrete trade policy terms has also been queried. And over the years, the differences between developing countries (large/small, middle-income/least-developed, industrialised/commodity exports, agricultural importers/exporters, and others) have grown, to the point that in the Uruguay Round a grand coalition of all developing countries does not exist in any active sense.

Review of: Sinclair Road, “Oil Export and Revenue Prospects For the Middle East” (London: Committee for Middle East Trade (COMET), 1989), 44 pp., £20.00.

(1990). Review of: Sinclair Road, “Oil Export and Revenue Prospects For the Middle East” (London: Committee for Middle East Trade (COMET), 1989), 44 pp., £20.00. Energy Sources: Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 523-523.

Book Review: Prospects for Polish and Soviet Coal Exports

Book Review: Prospects for Polish and Soviet Coal Exports

Erratum

This article has been withdrawn as it was published elsewhere and accidentally duplicated. The original article can be seen here: 10.1108/eb008365. When citing the article, please cite: Ralph C. Hook, Jr., Michael R. Czinkota, (1988) “EXPORT ACTIVITIES AND PROSPECTS OF HAWAIIAN FIRMS”, International Marketing Review, Vol. 5 Iss: 4, pp. 51 - 5.

China's potential as an energy exporter

Growth of China's economy has been severely handicapped by serious domestic energy shortages. However, its requirement for foreign exchange to purchase essential Western technology necessitates the export of energy minerals, thus exacerbating the domestic situation. During the first half of the 1980s, oil exports accounted for about one-quarter of total visible exports, but the oil price slump in 1986 led to a drastic reduction in export revenue. To offset the loss, a major incursion into the international coal market was planned. This paper reviews the prospects for China's exports of crude oil and coal to the turn of the century and, in addition, reviews the potential export status of the fledgling natural gas and uranium industries.

Erratum

This article has been withdrawn as it was published elsewhere and accidentally duplicated. The original article can be seen here: 10.1108/eb008365. When citing the article, please cite: Ralph C. Hook, Jr., Michael R. Czinkota, (1988) “EXPORT ACTIVITIES AND PROSPECTS OF HAWAIIAN FIRMS”, International Marketing Review, Vol. 5 Iss: 4, pp. 51 - 5.