Export Price Index Research Articles

MSCI全球指数与韩国股指波动对韩国贸易的影响

This study aims to analyse the impact of the stock market on Korea’s import and export trade, mainly through the MSCI Global and KOSPI indices as stock market proxies, and Korea’s total imports, total exports, import price indices, economic sentiment indices, and business surveys indices as proxies for import and export trade. Using a time-varying vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, it was found that the MSCI Global and KOSPI indices have a short-term positive effect on Korea’s total imports and total exports, but the KOSPI has a negative effect on total exports. For price indices, the MSCI Global Index has a positive effect on the import price index, while the KOSPI has a negative effect at a 1-month lag. For the export price index, the MSCI Global Index has a negative impact at 1-month lag but a positive impact at 3-month lag. For the Economic Sentiment Index, both indices have a negative impact at the 1-month lag. For the business survey index, both have a positive impact. In addition, the study analyses data from three different points in time: the US subprime crisis in 2008, the European credit crisis in 2015 and the New Crown epidemic in 2020. The results show that in all three financial events, the MSCI Global Index had a positive impact on Korea’s total exports and imports in the short term, while the KOSPI had a positive impact on total imports and a negative impact on total exports. For the import price index, the MSCI Global Index has a short-term positive impact while the KOSPI has a negative impact. For the export price index, both indices have a negative impact during financial events. For the economic sentiment index, the MSCI Global Index has a negative impact in the first lag and turns to a positive impact in the second lag, while the opposite is true for the KOSPI. Finally, in all three financial events, both indices had a short-term positive impact on the business survey index.

US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective

Since the US initiated the trade war and sought the decoupling of trade between China and the US, the US economic and financial situation has taken a sharp turn and inflation has remained high. So, this article studied the inflation analysis of the United States from the perspective of Sino-US trade and made a forecast. This paper constructs an ARIMAX model to empirically analyze the relationship between US-China trade and US inflation. The study shows that there is a significant positive correlation between China's export price index and the US CPI, which shows that China and the US are important stakeholders of each other. Because the United States is one of the largest economies, its economic development is of great significance to the world economic pattern and affects the whole world. Through the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States, the inflation rate of the United States will be reduced, and the economic growth of the United States will be promoted.

Retrospective Computations of Price Index Numbers: Theory and Application

Due to outdated weighting information, a Laspeyres‐based consumer price index (CPI) is prone to accumulating upward bias. Therefore, the present study introduces and examines simple and transparent revision approaches that retrospectively address the source of the bias. They provide a consistent long‐run time series of the CPI and require no additional information. Furthermore, a coherent decomposition of the bias into the contributions of individual product groups is developed. In a case study, the approaches are applied to a Laspeyres‐based CPI. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions. The proposed revision approaches are adoptable not only to most national CPIs but also to other price‐level measures such as the producer price index or the import and export price indices.

Endogenous product adjustment and exchange rate pass-through

We document how product quality responds to exchange rate movements and quantify the extent to which these quality changes affect the aggregate pass-through into export prices. We analyze the substantial sudden appreciation of the Swiss franc post removal of the 1.20-CHF-per-euro lower bound in 2015 using export data representing a large share of the universe of goods exports from Switzerland. We find that firms upgrade the quality of their products after the appreciation. Furthermore, they disproportionately remove lower-quality products from their product ranges. This quality upgrading and quality sorting effect accounts for a substantial share of the total pass-through one year after the appreciation. We cross-check our results with the microdata underlying the Swiss export price index, which includes an adjustment factor for quality based on firms' reported product replacements, and obtain similar results.

PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, NILAI TUKAR, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, DAN INDEKS HARGA PERDAGANGAN BESAR TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA TAHUN 2009-2021

This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply, exchange rate, foreign direct investment and wholesale trade price index on exports in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach. The method used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The data obtained are secondary data published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in the form of money supply, the wholesale and export price index, the Ministry of Trade in the form of exchange rates and the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) in the form of foreign direct investment. The results of this study indicate that the money supply has a positive and significant effect on Indonesian exports in the short and long term. Meanwhile, the exchange rate and foreign direct investment have a negative and significant impact on Indonesia's exports in the short and long term. Also, the wholesale price index has a positive and significant impact on Indonesian exports in the short term.

Revisiting the Dynamic Response of Chinese Price Level to Crude Oil Price Shocks Based on a Network Analysis Method

Crude oil price shocks have led to a fluctuation in commodity prices through the industrial chain and supply–demand relationships, which can substantially influence a country’s economy. In this paper, we propose a transmission model of oil price shocks to Chinese price levels and explore the direct and indirect impacts of crude oil price shocks on various Chinese price indices, combining the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and network analysis method. The empirical data are the Brent, WTI, Dubai, and Daqing spot crude oil prices and eight categories of Chinese price indices from January 2011 to March 2020. We found the following results: (1) Consumer price index (CPI) and the price index for means of agricultural production (MAPPI) cannot be directly impacted by crude oil price fluctuations, while they could be indirectly affected. (2) The duration and degree of the impacts of oil prices on each price index vary, and the export price index (EPI) is the most significantly affected. (3) The proportion of the indirect impact in the total impact of crude oil price shocks ranges from 0.03% to 100.00%. Thus, indirect influence cannot be ignored when analyzing the influence of crude oil price fluctuation on Chinese price level.

Substitution Bias in the Measurement of Import and Export Price Indices: Causes and Correction

Abstract The import and export price indices of an economy are usually compiled by some Laspeyres type index. It is well known that such an index formula is prone to substitution bias. Therefore, also the terms of trade (ratio of export and import price index) are likely to be distorted. The underlying substitution bias accumulates over time. The present article introduces a simple and transparent retroactive correction approach that addresses the source of the substitution bias and produces meaningful long-run time series of import and export price levels and, therefore, of the terms of trade. Furthermore, an empirical case study is conducted that demonstrates the efficacy and versatility of the correction approach.

Unit Value Indexes for Exports – New Developments Using Administrative Trade Data

Abstract U.S. import and export price indexes replaced unit value indexes forty years ago, given quality concerns of mismeasurement due to unit value bias. The administrative trade data underlying the unit values have greatly improved since that time. The transaction records are now more detailed, available electronically, and compiled monthly with little delay. The data are used by academic researchers to calculate price measures, and unit value indexes based on trade data are used by other national statistical offices (NSOs). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is now evaluating whether replacing price indexes with unit value indexes for homogeneous products calculated from administrative trade data could expand the number of published official import and export price indexes. Using export transactions, the research calculates detailed unit value indexes from 200 + million trade records from 2012–2017 for 123 export product categories. Results show that 27 of the 123 unit value indexes are homogeneous and closely comparable to published official price indexes. This article presents the concepts and methods considered to calculate and evaluate the unit value indexes and to select the product categories that are homogeneous. Compared to official price indexes, export unit value indexes for the 27 5-digit BEA (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) end-use product categories would deflate real exports of these goods by 13 percentage points less over the period. Incorporating these 27 indexes into the top-level XPI would increase the value of real exports of all merchandise goods by 2.6 percentage points at the end of 2017.

New Phenomena in the Price Movement of Manufactured Goods in Contemporary International Trade

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to identify trends in the movement of processed goods prices in international trade in 2014-2020 and to explain them in the context of structural transformations occurring in the exports’ sector of the countries under study. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research on export price trends was conducted based on the export price indices of processed goods and indices of manufacture to manufacture terms of trade. Then, the analysis of changes in the structure of exports of processed goods by the degree of processing of the countries and groups of countries studied was made. Findings: The results indicate the existence of relatively high dynamics of export prices of processed goods of China and India, i.e., developing countries, so far competing with low prices in exports. This phenomenon occurred under the conditions of an apparent increase in the share of high-skill and technology-intensive manufactures in the total exports of these countries in the last quarter of a century, as shown in the study. Practical Implications: The results of this research have important implications for economic policy-making in developing countries. They confirm that goods characteristics (export structure) are still an important determinant of export prices. Originality/Value: The present study demonstrates new phenomena in the price movement of manufactured goods in international trade that deviate from previous trends analyzed and reported in the literature. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussion on the increasing technological sophistication of developing countries' exports improving their terms of trade.

An analysis of export of indian agriculture commodities

The present work has attempted to examine the relationship between agricultural export and the effective factors influencing the same relationship in India. The review of literature has provided an overview of growth of agricultural exports across the countries and different methods used to calculate the export supply function of agricultural products. This study is based on the neoclassical trade theory which is evaluated in a neoclassical production function framework, incorporating an additional factor of production (exports) into the production function. The study has attempted to analyze the long run and the short run relationship between agricultural exports as dependent variable and exchange rate, export price index, gross domestic product and domestic production of agricultural product as independent variables based on annual data during 1980- 2010. Also, World Trade Organization as a dummy variable has been taken as a determinant of India's agricultural exports. The autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model are used to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables. Further, paired t-test is used to investigate the impact of WTO on growth of agricultural export in India. Dynamic econometric model is estimated to test for time series properties, unit root test and cointegration (ARDL procedure). The results of cointegration test showed that the variables are cointegrated. The results of long-run estimated coefficients of export supply function showed that exchange rate had a statistically significant and negative impact on agricultural export. The long-run coefficient of domestic production of agricultural product and export price index have positive sign and are significant at 5% level respectively. The long-run coefficients of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and WTO as dummy variable had positive and negative sign respectively but are insignificant. In brief, the coefficient of the ECM is very high at (−) 0.54 implying a fairly high speed of adjustment to the long-run disequilibrium after a shock. The Coefficient of the ECM term suggested that adjustment process was fast and 54% of the previous year's disequilibrium in equity prices from its equilibrium path will be corrected in the current year. It is also observed that dummy variable is not significant in long run but it is statistically significant in short term.

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles. Given that shifts in export and import prices have asymmetric effects on the economy, global economic activity shocks, which simultaneously affect export and import prices, are largely undetected in the terms of trade measure but have large effects on domestic business cycles.

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles.

The weak rupiah: catching the tailwinds and avoiding the shoals.

The Indonesian rupiah depreciated 50% between July 2011 and February 2020. Blanchard et al. (Are capital inflows expansionary or contractionary? Theory, policy implications, and some evidence. NBER Working Papers 21619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 2015) showed that capital outflows from emerging markets can reduce output by increasing the cost of financial intermediation and can increase output by increasing net exports. Regression results indicate that Indonesian banks are exposed to depreciations, but that exports are not stimulated by depreciations. The findings also indicate that Indonesia’s export price index is positively correlated with commodity prices and negatively correlated with manufactured goods prices. Exporting more manufactures would reduce Indonesia’s exposure to volatile commodity prices and allow depreciations to stimulate exports. This paper considers several steps that Indonesia could take to increase its manufacturing exports.

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.

Comparative Study of GCV-MCP Hybrid Smoothing Methods for Predicting Time Series Observations

Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) has been considered a popular model for choosing the complexity of statistical models, it is also well known for its optimal properties. Mallow’s CP criterion (MCP) has been considered a powerful tool which is used to select smoothing parameters for spline estimates with non-Gaussian data. Most of the past works applied Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) and Mallow’s CP criterion (MCP) smoothing methods to time series data, this methods over fits data in the presence of Autocorrelation error. A new Smoothing method is proposed by taking the hybrid of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) and Mallow’s CP criterion (MCP). The predicting performance of the Hybrid GCV-MCP is compared with Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) and Mallow’s CP criterion (MCP) using data generated through a simulation study and real-life data on all SITC export and import price index in Nigeria between the years, 2001-2018, performed by using a program written in R and based on the predictive Mean Score Error (PMSE) criterion. Experimental results obtained show that the predictive mean square error (PMSE) of the three smoothing methods decreases as the sample size and smoothing parameters increases. The study discovered that the Hybrid GCV-MCP smoothing methods performed better than the classical GVV and MCP for both the simulated and real life data.

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not All Alike

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles.

Changes in trade variety, substitutability, and terms of trade effect: Evidence from south korea

This paper quantifies the effects of both import and export varieties on a nation's terms of trade. Using the most disaggregate trade data (HS 10 digit) for South Korea over the period 1992–2015, I find that the growth in import variety caused a drop in the import price index by 2.44% per year and the growth in export variety caused a rise in the export price index by 1.46% per year. I identify that the effects of import and export varieties on the terms of trade are different due to the differences in variety change and substitutability. The conventional terms of trade that do not take into account changes in the varieties of import and export underestimated the true terms of trade by 3.9% per year. This implies that the growth of real income and productivity for the South Korean economy would be underestimated by the conventional terms of trade.

Exportaciones de productos no tradicionales en el Perú en una estructura VAR multivariado

Between 2000 and 2017, non-traditional exports in Peru have shown an accelerated growth mainly explained by the agricultural sector, followed by the fishing, textile, chemical and steel-metallurgical sectors, presenting a surprising growth of 470.95% in this period. The objective of the study is to find the macroeconomic determinants of exports of non-traditional products to Peru through the search of the long-term relationship, using the Johansen methodology and the implementation of the Error Correction Vector Model to find the short dynamics and long term for exports of non-traditional products. The results show that the determinants of exports are US gross production, bilateral real exchange rate index and export index, which have a cointegration relationship. Finally, it was found that gross US production has a positive influence, the bilateral real exchange rate index has a negative influence and the export price index has a negative influence on exports of non-traditional products in Peru.

Commodity Terms of Trade

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.

The Effect of Export Volume, Export Price Index and Treasury Bond Interest Rate on Export Amount

The Effect of Export Volume, Export Price Index and Treasury Bond Interest Rate on Export Amount