Exportaciones de productos no tradicionales en el Perú en una estructura VAR multivariado

Abstract

Between 2000 and 2017, non-traditional exports in Peru have shown an accelerated growth mainly explained by the agricultural sector, followed by the fishing, textile, chemical and steel-metallurgical sectors, presenting a surprising growth of 470.95% in this period. The objective of the study is to find the macroeconomic determinants of exports of non-traditional products to Peru through the search of the long-term relationship, using the Johansen methodology and the implementation of the Error Correction Vector Model to find the short dynamics and long term for exports of non-traditional products. The results show that the determinants of exports are US gross production, bilateral real exchange rate index and export index, which have a cointegration relationship. Finally, it was found that gross US production has a positive influence, the bilateral real exchange rate index has a negative influence and the export price index has a negative influence on exports of non-traditional products in Peru.