Export Price Index Research Articles

Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index-which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices-as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.

Research on exchange rate pass‐through effect based on artificial intelligence approach

SummaryArtificial intelligence is widely believed to reshape many industries in the future. This paper analyzes the chaotic characteristics of Chinese export price index, exchange rate data, and studies the predictive ability of the neural network model in exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) prediction. The Hermite neural network model, one of artificial intelligence models, is selected to forecast the rate of pass‐through effect. Hermite neural network model demonstrates a superior forecasting accuracy, and its forecasting error is less than that of the general neural network model.

Is Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Hypothesis valid in Turkey

Purpose- In so far as financial development that supports the supply-side view as well as the country’s competitiveness, a rapid increase in import price index in comparison to the export price index brings forth the deterioration regarding trade. A similar case also exists in Turkey. The aim of the study is to test the relationship between foreign trade balance and terms of trade in Turkey. Methodology- In this study, the monthly data of terms of trade and foreign trade balance for the period 2005: M1 - 2017: M4 are analyzed for Turkey, and the validity of Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Hypothesis is tested. Findings- The deviations in the short run converge to the long-term equilibrium in approximately 6 months period. In addition, considering the normalized long-term relationship, the 1-unit increase in the terms of trade would cause an average increase of $ 321,335 in the estimated dependent variable, namely, the foreign trade balance. Conclusion- There exists a long-term relationship between the variables, namely, terms of trade and foreign trade balance. Moreover, there is a short-term unilateral causality from foreign trade balance to terms of trade.

RECONSTRUCTION OF EXPORT SERIES FOR PERU BEFORE THE GREAT DEPRESSION

AbstractThis article discusses the available sources of information on the value and volume of Peru’s exports and estimates the current value of exports, the index of export prices and the quantum of exports using a wide variety of sources. By relying on several sources, I estimate the first complete series of the current value of exports for Peru for 1830-1930. Importantly, I adjust other studies’ estimates by taking into account the deficiencies of foreign sources and by distinguishing between exports of specie and of minerals. The estimations show that exports experienced substantial growth in the 1850s and 1860s, during the Guano Era. Exports stagnated in the 1870s and dropped during the War of the Pacific (1879-1883) before recovering in the late 19thand early 20thcenturies, especially during World War I.

Crude oil prices spur gains for U.S. import and export price indexes, despite the appreciating dollar: 2016 annual summary

Crude oil prices spur gains for U.S. import and export price indexes, despite the appreciating dollar: 2016 annual summary

ANALISIS EKSPOR-IMPOR DAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN PADA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

This study aims to assess and analyze the Effect of Export, Impor and Consumer Price Index in economic growth in Indonesia from 2000 to 2014. This research uses quantitative descriptive approach with the nature of verification explanatory method. The data used are secondary data in the form of Export, Import, and the Consumer Price Index of Indonesian Economic Growth (GDP) in 2000-2014. The results showed that export push the GDP more effectively: compared to import sector and CPI. Regression analysis showed that the constant value of GDP was 0.526. Also, the Export Coefficients value is 0.015, the Import Coefficients value is -0,026 and CPI is -0.2303. Meaning that 1 percent of the value of exports will increase GDP by 1.5 percent, 1 percent of imports will lower the value of GDP by 2.6 percent and 1 percent of the CPI will lower the value of GDP by 23.03 percent. This means that Exports variable boots GDP more effective from Import sector and the Consumer Price Index. Significance test results showed that the variables of export, import and CPI jointly influence economic growth (GDP) with the alpha (a) of 5% as shown by the F-statistic significant value of 0.74, greater than a=0,05. In other words, the independent variabel (exports, imports and CPI) jointly affect the dependent variable (GDP)

An Analysis of Export of Indian Agriculture Commodities

The present work has attempted to examine the relationship between agricultural export and the effective factors influencing the same relationship in India. The review of literature has provided an overview of growth of agricultural exports across the countries and different methods used to calculate the export supply function of agricultural products. This study is based on the neoclassical trade theory which is evaluated in a neoclassical production function framework, incorporating an additional factor of production (exports) into the production function. The study has attempted to analyze the long run and the short run relationship between agricultural exports as dependent variable and exchange rate, export price index, gross domestic product and domestic production of agricultural product as independent variables based on annual data during 1980- 2010. Also, World Trade Organization as a dummy variable has been taken as a determinant of India’s agricultural exports. The autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model are used to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables. Further, paired t-test is used to investigate the impact of WTO on growth of agricultural export in India. Dynamic econometric model is estimated to test for time series properties, unit root test and cointegration (ARDL procedure). The results of cointegration test showed that the variables are cointegrated. The results of long-run estimated coefficients of export supply function showed that exchange rate had a statistically significant and negative impact on agricultural export. The long-run coefficient of domestic production of agricultural product and export price index have positive sign and are significant at 5% level respectively. The long-run coefficients of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and WTO as dummy variable had positive and negative sign respectively but are insignificant. In brief, the coefficient of the ECM is very high at (-) 0.54 implying a fairly high speed of adjustment to the long-run disequilibrium after a shock. The Coefficient of the ECM term suggested that adjustment process was fast and 54% of the previous year’s disequilibrium in equity prices from its equilibrium path will be corrected in the current year. It is also observed that dummy variable is not significant in long run but it is statistically significant in short term. Key words: agricultural exports, production function, Gross Domestic Product, WTO

Real GDI, Productivity, and the Terms of Trade in Canada

In this paper, a quarterly dataset of productivity is built for the Canadian business sector, and the Diewert and Yu () estimates of annual productivity growth are revised and updated to reflect changes in the new Canadian system of national economic accounts. The quarterly data are then used to study the contribution of total factor productivity and the terms of trade to growth of real gross domestic income. In most years of the 2000s, the contribution of the terms of trade became significant in real income growth, whereas that of total factor productivity growth was stagnant. Improvement in the terms of trade arises froma decline in the import price index and an increase in the export price index.

Un modelo de oferta exportable para productos no tradicionales del Perú: periodo 2004 - 2016

In the last fifteen years, non-traditional exports from Peru have gone from a value of US $ 2 044 million in the year 2000, to US $ 10 857 in 2015; which means a total growth of 430% and an average annual growth of 28%. This is partly due to the diversification of the exportable supply, the competitive advantages that each export sector has and to the Trade Agreements (Free Trade Agreements) of Peru with different countries and economic blocs. This document presents an econometric model for non-traditional exports from Peru in the period January 2004-April 2016, and because they are time series, first tests of unit roots and stationarity are performed on each of the economic series involved in the model of exportable supply, using the contrasts of Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and KPSS, which turned out to be all, integrated in order 1. To verify the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships between the economic series, two methodologies are used. Relatively recent cointegration: Johansen and Pesaran, Shin and Smith, resulting in the fact that there is effectively cointegration between the economic series and, therefore, the corresponding Error Correction Models are formulated. The results show that the variables Export Price Index and Importer Income (External Income) are determinants to explain the behavior of non-traditional exports from Peru.

A Study on the Effects of FTA and Economic Integration on Throughput of Korea and China

Trade relation of Korea and China has been growing explosively since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992. Now, China is important to the role of market in Korea. Therefore, it is very important to develop economy and trade relations. So in this study, we analyzed the impacts of FTA and economic integration on trade value using HS 85’s panel data of 45 countries trading with Korea from 1992 until 2013 by gravity model. It can be inferred how many impacts of Korea and China’s FTA on throughput. As a result, GDP and population were accorded with the basic gravity model; there was statistical significance in trade index (export similarity index; ESI, export and import price index) except trade complementarity index (TCI) as trade diversion effects. Finally, we proved trade-generating effect about FTA and economic integration as trade creation effects.

Non-price competitiveness of exports from emerging countries

We construct a relative export price index that adjusts for changes in non-price factors (e.g. quality or taste) and changes in the set of competitors for nine emerging economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey). The index is calculated using highly disaggregated (6-digit Harmonized System, HS) trade data from UN Comtrade for the period between 1996 and 2012. Our method highlights the crucial importance of non-price competitiveness in assessing emerging countries’ performance on external markets, as well as notable differences in non-price competitiveness dynamics across exporters. China shows a huge gain in international competitiveness due to non-price factors, while the role of the exchange rate in explaining China’s competitive position may have been overstressed. Similarly, Brazil, India and Turkey show discernible improvements in their competitive position when accounting for non-price factors. Oil exports account for strong improvement in Russia’s non-price competitiveness, as well as losses of competitiveness for Indonesia. Mexico’s competitiveness deteriorates prior to 2006 and improves afterwards.

Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis

The growing concern over the threat to world food security calls for a re-examination of the factors that affect agricultural productivity. This threat becomes more worrisome because of the high prevalence of diseases associated with hunger and poor nutrition intake. This paper examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Carbon emission was used to capture the effect of climate change. We examine the effect of climate change on the short-run and long-run productivity using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Our regression result reveals that climate change has a long run impact on agricultural productivity. Other variables that significantly affect agricultural productivity are oil export, subsidy and consumer price index. To ensure food security and sustainable agricultural production in the future, the authors recommend that efforts should be geared towards reducing carbon emission. According to them, this can be achieved by placing disincentives like carbon tax on emission beyond the limits agreed at the Lima 2014 climate summit. Other methods proposed by the authors include: deemphasizing the importance of crude oil in the Nigerian economy, a reduction or an outright removal of agricultural subsidies and shielding farmers from adverse market conditions.

The role of BLS import and export price indexes in the real GDP

The role of BLS import and export price indexes in the real GDP

The Impact of the Capital and Financial Account Balance on Jordanian Export Price Index (2000-2014)

Standard figures have a role in the assessment of changes in the prices of commodities, as well as the figures of agricultural and industrial production and exports. A standard figure can be defined as a statistical figure which is used in measuring the relative change in the prices or quantities of a certain phenomenon from one time to another, or from one place to another. Standard figures are used in statistical applications in research, in which the various conditions of the different countries are evaluated through the study of the several variables in the future. This study aims at exploring the nature financial and capital accounts at the central bank of Jordan, as well as identifying their effects on the standard figure of the prices of Jordanian exports for the period (2000-2014), by employing the SPSS software and the t-test. The results of the study showed the existence of a positive correlation (α =0.05) between the financial account and the standard figure of the prices of Jordanian exports for the period (2000-2014) , which applies also to the capital account and its correlation to the standard figure of the prices of Jordanian exports for the period (2000-2014). The value of the total correlation coefficient was (0.744) , and the variable of the financial account has an effect and a high predictable power concerning the standard figure of the prices of Jordanian exports for the period (20002014), and the absence of an effect and a predictable power for the financial account on the standard figure of the prices of the Jordanian exports for the period (2000-2014)>

Summary Measure for Price and Non‐price Competitiveness for ASEAN+3

In this paper we apply a comprehensive measure that allows us to distinguish price and non‐price aspects of competitiveness. Our measure is computationally demanding but has the advantage of building on a single data source of highly disaggregated trade data. We extend the methodology pioneered by Feenstra (1994), and Broda and Weinstein (2006), and construct an export price index that adjusts for changes in the set of competitors (variety) and changes in non‐price factors (quality in a broad sense) for six ASEAN members (the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) plus China, Japan and Korea. Based on trade data from UN COMTRADE at the Harmonized System six‐digit level over the period 2000−2011, we find notable differences between price and non‐price competitiveness across markets. China and Vietnam show huge gains in international competitiveness due to non‐price factors, while we observe some deterioration in the non‐price competitiveness of Japan and Singapore. However, these relative developments do not reflect the existing differences in the absolute levels of the quality of exported goods by those countries.

URUGUAY AND THE FIRST GLOBALIZATION: ON THE ACCURACY OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE, 1870-1913

ABSTRACTIn order to understand Uruguay’s long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan export series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of export records, first, according to import partners’ records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and an export price index which present a more unstable and less dynamic export evolution than that of neighbouring Argentina.

THE CHANGES OF FOREIGN TRADE CONDITIONS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESS IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

This paper analyses the changes of foreign trade conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises after Lithuanian becoming the member of the EU. Small and medium-sized enterprises, presently, play the main role in the Lithuanian economy. Lithuania is a small open market, thus its economy largely depends on foreign trade. Small and medium-sized enterprises play the main role in Lithuanian foreign trade. Lithuanian integration into the EU opened huge possibilities for Lithuanian foreign trade. It was determined that in recent years export of Lithuanian small and medium-sized enterprises goods into EU countries and import from the EU comprised the biggest share of all export and import. However, in Lithuania is observing unevenness of small and medium-sized enterprises foreign trade development by counties. The analysis of scientific ideas and attitudes helped to distinguish various attitudes of scientists towards problems of the gains from small and medium-sized enterprises foreign trade. In the scientific literature benefit of foreign trade for country is evaluated using indicator of trade conditions which is calculated as proportion of country’s export price index and import price index. This indicator helps to form country’s foreign trade policy. The aim of the research is to examine the changes of foreign trade conditions of Lithuanian SME in the context of European economic integration and foresee the ways of improvement. Seeking for this aim, in the paper are presented the basic indices of estimation of foreign trade conditions; analysis of foreign trade condition’s indices of Lithuanian small and medium-sized enterprises. Lithuanian foreign trade conditions of SME are estimated by counties and ways of improvement of foreign trade conditions’ situation are presented in this paper. The object of this research is Lithuanian foreign trade conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises. The methods of research are: analysis and synthesis of the scientific literature discussing the problems of foreign trade conditions; the systematic statistical data analysis of Lithuanian foreign trade of small and medium-sized enterprises. The analysis showed that interregional contradictions increase due to uneven development of territories. Therefore, regional policy performed by the state must pay attention to peculiarities of their development. Complex of means for security of stability and sustainability of development of Lithuanian regions is necessary. In decreasing interregional contradictions special role may be played by purposeful support provided to export by the state that would help to diversify its marketable structure and extend assortment of imported ready production. Encouraging export development it would be purposeful to improve export credit insurance system. These means would help to develop export of small and medium-sized enterprises.

The equilibrium level and forecasting performance of nominal effective exchange rate indexes using an export and import price-based relative PPP model

While the majority of studies on purchasing power parity (PPP) and exchange rate forecasting focus on bilateral exchange rates, the purpose of this article is to analyse the aggregate nominal effective exchange rate index of six major currencies. Export and import price indexes are used to construct relative PPP-based equilibrium exchange rates. Applying an alternative approach based on the exchange rate deviations from equilibrium, we find half-lives of less than 1 year in some cases. Additionally, we report success rates of correctly predicting the direction of the exchange rate indexes as high as 70%. The success rates improve for longer horizons and when the investigation is restricted to large deviations from PPP-equilibrium. Finally, and most importantly, for the period following the start of the global financial crisis (2007 to 2012), the model outperforms the random walk for four of the six exchange rate indexes. The findings provide important implications for international market participants who are interested in a general guide about a currencies aggregate equilibrium level as well its future movements.

(Asymmetric Hedging Behavior between Export and Import Companies and the Financial Market Stability)

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 수출입기업이 선물환 시장에서 보이는 비대칭성의 원인을 분석하고, 비대칭성을 완화할 수 있는 제도적 보완책을 제안하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 수출입기업의 위험을 분해함으로써 두 기업집단에 노출된 위험의 이질성을 밝히고 비대칭적 헤지거래가 기업들의 합리적인 의사결정의 결과임을 보인다. 수출물가지수와 수입물가지수를 이용한 결과에 의하면, 수출기업은 수입기업에 비해 약 47.8% 가량 더 큰 위험에 노출되어 있을 뿐만 아니라 ‘가격위험’과 ‘환위험’으로 분해한 결과, 수출기업 총 위험의 약 44%가 환위험에 해당하는 반면, 수입기업은 총위험의 약 11%만이 환위험에 해당한다. 따라서 수출입 기업의 비대칭적 헤지거래는 이러한 위험의 구조적 차이에 의해 충분히 설명될 수 있다. 추가적으로 수출물품과 수입물품의 가격탄력성 차이와 관계된 수출입 기업의 가격책정정책이 이러한 위험의 비대칭성을 유발함을 설명한다. 마지막으로, 본고는 비대칭 헤지거래에 의한 물가상승압력 및 외환시장 교란의 가능성을 소개하고 이를 극복하기 위한 정책방안을 제안한다. English Abstract: This paper investigates the asymmetric hedging behavior between export and import companies in the Won-Dollar forward market and provides us with the policies to mitigate drawbacks by such an asymmetric hedging pattern. By decomposing the embedded risk of each company, we show its heterogeneous nature and verify that such an asymmetric hedging results from a rational decision of the Korean export and import companies. According to the results that use export and import price indices, the level of the embedded risk in export companies is about 47.8 percent higher than that of risk embedded in import companies. In addition, we decompose the embedded risk of export and import companies into “the price change related risk” and “the exchange rate related risk”, and find out that about 44 percent of the total risk of export companies is “exchange rate risk”, whereas only about 11 percent of that of import companies is. Thus, the asymmetric hedging behavior between export and import companies can be mostly explained y the different pattern in their risk composition. Lastly, we explain the possibility of the inflation pressure and currency market distortion by the asymmetric hedging behavior and introduce the several policies to overcome such negative effects.

Contributions to a History of Prices in Norway: Monthly Price Indices, 1777-1920

This study reports the outcome of an eort to collect market price data for Norway with a view to constructing monthly price indices from the year 1777 to 1920. The material covers data on commodity prices from agriculture, shery, dairying, manufacturing and mining. Indices of the wholesale and producer price index families are constructed, using the repeat sales method for constructing the underlying price series. Separate indices for commodity exports and imports are also presented. The new wholesale price index, as well as the export and import price indices, are linked to existing price indices after 1920 and brought forward to the end of 1940. The price indices shed new light on two great wartime inationary episodes in Norway: 1807-1817 and 1913-1920. In spite of a 61-fold increase in the price level in the rst period and a 4-fold increase in the second, it is found that, after ination had been brought under control, prices reverted to a level consistent with the purchasing power parity principle.