China Exports Research Articles

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's overseas renewable energy development finance: Effects and features

This study investigates the features and effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's policy banks' overseas renewable energy development finance in BRI countries. To this end, this study uses the financing for energy projects' data in China's Global Energy Finance database and performs regression analysis using Differences-in-differences (DID) and Difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) methods. The main findings are as follows. First, compared with non-renewable energy finance, the BRI can increase the number of renewable energy projects financing by China's policy banks in BRI countries; however, this positive effect is mainly reflected in hydropower projects and Southeast Asia. Second, from the perspective of the providers' features, the BRI has a more significant role in promoting the financing of renewable energy by China Export and Import Bank. In terms of recipients' features, China's development finance is mainly directed to high credit risk, low-income countries and regions that traditional donors have disregarded; thus, the policy banks tend to cooperate with government recipients. Third, the BRI has facilitated China's policy banks' renewable energy finance in high carbon intensity countries, breaking the carbon lock-in effect and strengthening renewable energy financing through the establishment of energy partnerships, reflecting the features of joint contribution and cooperation. Our findings alleviate some scholars' concerns about the environmental effects of the BRI to a certain degree and show that proactive policies of investing countries can guide development finance to contribute to the global energy transition and climate goals.

Research on the Problems and Countermeasures of China's Wooden Furniture Product Exports

After the reform and opening up, China's wooden furniture industry has made great progress. The production of wooden furniture has continued to grow, and the total amount of exports is also steadily increasing. Wooden furniture is also an integral part of our daily life. As China's economy continues to develop, the demand for wooden furniture is increasing and the proportion of its exports is rising year on year. Since China's accession to the WTO, China's exports of wooden furniture have gradually expanded and China's influence and competitiveness in the international market has increased. However, there are still many problems in China's wooden furniture export trade, including the export market being too congregated and facing trade barriers; facing competitive pressure from the markets of emerging countries, led by Vietnam; increasing export costs and low added value of products; and a single product structure and weak brand awareness. The main reason for these problems is that the export value of Chinese wooden furniture products is small, the export scale is not large, and the export scale fluctuates; the export product structure is simple, of which bedroom wooden furniture occupies a large proportion; the export market structure is too aggregated, mainly in the United States. Therefore, China's wooden furniture industry should continue to optimize the market structure of products, and actively respond to trade barriers; actively respond to the challenges from the international market, to strengthen international competitiveness; constantly adjust the product structure, establish and strengthen brand awareness, to create high-quality, high value-added wooden furniture products, in order to promote the development of wooden furniture export trade.

The Role of Cultural and Institutional Distances in International Trade

Despite the effectiveness of the observed barriers such as taxes and quotas to adjust bilateral trade, they are still not well supported by governments in general and the World Trade Organization in particular. Therefore, in recent years, unobserved barriers have been critical tools to modify the trade flows between nations worldwide. China’s exports account for a massive proportion of global trade. However, the role of cultural and institutional distance in China’s trade flow has not been much explored. This study analyzes the impact of cultural and institutional differences on China's exports between 2006-2017 by adopting a system-GMM estimator. The main findings are, first, that cultural and institutional differences between China and its trading partners reduce China's exports. Second, cultural and institutional distances have the strongest influence on China's exports to high-income countries, followed by low-income countries, and finally middle-income countries. Third, manufactured products are the most sensitive to cultural and institutional distances. Based on these findings, several policies for China, as well as for emerging economies in general, are suggested for reducing cultural and institutional distances and boosting their exports. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-02-015 Full Text: PDF

Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Countries’ Trade Flows: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis

In this study, the effects of geopolitical risks (GPR) on countries’ trade flows are examined with the nonlinear ARDL method by using the data of 11 countries for 1993M01 – 2021M08 periods. According to the findings, positive GPR shocks reduced exports in Turkey, Russia, China, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they reduced imports in Turkey, Russia, South Africa, and Israel. Negative GPR shocks increased exports in Russia, China, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they increased imports in Mexico, China, and Argentina. It was determined that the effects of GPR on exports are symmetrical in Turkey, Russia, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they are asymmetrical in Mexico, South Korea, India, Brazil, China, and Indonesia. Moreover, we find that the effects of geopolitical risks on imports are symmetrical in all countries. Increases in the REER decreased exports in Turkey, Mexico, India, China, Indonesia, South Africa, Argentina, and Israel, whereas they increased imports in Turkey, South Korea, Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia and decreased imports in Argentina and Israel. Increases in the world income increased exports of all countries, whereas increases in the countries’ own national income increased imports in Turkey, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, India, Brazil, Argentina, and Israel.

Forecasting the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on China’s Cotton Exports by Modified Discrete Grey Model with Limited Data

The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has created dramatic challenges for public health and textile export trade worldwide. Such abrupt changes are difficult to predict due to the inherently high complexity and nonlinearity, especially with limited data. This article proposes a novel modified discrete grey model with weakening buffer operators, called BODGM (1,1), for forecasting the impact of pandemic-induced uncertainty on the volatility of cotton exports in China under limited samples. First, the Mann–Kendall test examines how pandemic-induced uncertainty affects cotton exports, based on China’s monthly cotton export data from June 2014 to August 2022. Second, buffer operators are employed to weaken the nonlinear trends and correct the tentative predictions of the discrete grey model. Then, the BODGM (1,1) model was validated by comparison with four alternative models. The results indicate that the BODGM (1,1) model was particularly promising for identifying mutational fluctuations in cotton exports and outperformed the GM (1,1), DGM (1,1), ARIMA and linear regression models in fitting and prediction accuracy under volatility and limited data. The BODGM (1,1) model forecast results for China showed that cotton export volume was expected to show signs of recovery over the next 12 months. The findings of this study may provide a basis for formulating trade policies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on export resources and build their resilience to future pandemics.

China’s marine manufacturing export growth: Policy, status, and driving components

This paper is the first to quantify the evolution of the scale, structure, and competitiveness of China's marine manufacturing exports based on a product-level database. The results show that although the scale of China's marine exports increased rapidly between 2002 and 2010, it slowed down after 2010. Meanwhile, the shipbuilding industry has always occupied the leading position in marine manufacturing exports, but export competitiveness has experienced a significant developmental bottleneck in recent years. Moreover, by decomposing the intrinsic driving factors of marine manufacturing exports, we find that only the scale effect promoted the export of marine products. China has not effectively developed marine manufacturing exports due to the domination of traditional industries, low technology conversion, and insufficient policy support. Therefore, we put forward relevant policy suggestions and countermeasures to address the weak exports of China’s marine industry.

The Belt, the Road, and the carbon emissions in China

This paper explores the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's exports and the domestic carbon emissions induced by the exports. We employ a decomposition framework to assess the driving factors of the change of CO2 emissions induced by China's exports to different destinations and evaluate the main contributions of the gap between the BRI countries and non-BRI (NBRI) countries. The decomposition results show that while the scale effect was the dominant force behind the pre-BRI emission growth, the contribution of the composition effect became more prominent after the inception of the Initiative. Our econometric analysis suggests that the Initiative leads to an increase in the share of carbon-intensive products in China's exports to the BRI countries by nearly 5 percentage points, which is approximately one quarter of the share of carbon-intensive exports to the BRI countries. A further investigation reveals that China's international project contracting is the main channel that has resulted in the increase of the share of carbon-intensive exports in China's exports to the BRI countries.

The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited: The Case of the East African Community

AbstractChina's increasing exports have prompted research to examine whether Chinese exports displace those that originate from elsewhere. In this paper we focus on the growth of China's exports to the East African Community (EAC) countries and show how they have affected exports from the European Union (EU). Our methodological contribution to the literature is a set of total and relative displacement estimates based on different specifications of the gravity model where we control for country–year fixed effects so as to avoid the error of not accounting for time‐varying “multilateral resistance.” Our empirical findings do not support the hypothesis that Chinese exports have displaced exports from other countries including those from the EU. These results suggest that competition in the EAC market has not been a zero‐sum game among different exporting countries.

Research on the Impact of ASEAN Countries' Digital Economy Development on China's Export Trade Benefits

Research on the Impact of ASEAN Countries' Digital Economy Development on China's Export Trade Benefits

A study on the interaction effect of institutional quality and OFDI on Chinese export trade--case analysis based on RCEP member countries

OFDI is an important approach for China to realize economic integration with all countries in the world, and has a vital significance for China's "going-out" strategy. Based on the foreign trade panel data of China and RCEP member countries from 2009 to 2019, this paper explores the trade effect of OFDI and foreign exports, and studies the role and effect of host country institutional quality in the trade effect of OFDI. Further study is made on the influence of six governmental governance indicators of RCEP member state system quality on Chinese export trade. The results show that China's OFDI has complementary effects on the export trade of RCEP member countries, that is, OFDI has promoting effects on China's export trade in RCEP trade. The sound institutional quality of RCEP member countries strengthens the positive effect of OFDI on export trade; Six sub-indexes of institutional quality have promoted the export trade of our country significantly. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions to circumvent the system risks of RCEP member states from the perspective of regulatory authorities and enterprises. Conclusion can provide reference for the system development of our country.

The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Export Trade between China and ASEAN

Facing with the complicated global situation, many countries change the economic policies at any time. The uncertainty of economic policies will increase, and the uncertainty risk will increase accordingly. The trade share between China and ASEAN was the largest in recent years, which showed the closeness and importance of the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN. The macro-economy policies, trade policies and regional cooperation of China and ASEAN, will affect interests of both parties. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the impact of the uncertainty of China's economic policy on the export trade between China and ASEAN. By using the uncertainty index of China's economic policy measured by Baker et al (2016)^[1] in 2003-2020, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of the uncertainty of China's economic policy on the export volume of China to ASEAN. The results show that, the uncertainty of China's economic policy has a negative impact on China's export trade to ASEAN. Therefore, to better safeguard the export trade between China and ASEAN, methods such as joining the regional economic integration organization, optimizing the export industry structure, enhancing the innovation ability, and improving the institutional environment should be adopted to reduce the losses caused by the uncertainty risks of economic policies.

THE IMPACT OF TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON THE QUALITY OF CHINA'S MANUFACTURING EXPORTS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON CHINA'S EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES

Previous studies believe that the decline in trade policy uncertainty will lead to a decline in the quality of export products, mainly because the decline in trade policy uncertainty is mainly reflected in the decline in tariff levels, so that enterprises that produce a large number of low-quality products are easier to enter the export market, but China's medium and high-tech products even in the case of tariff decline, due to weak competitiveness, so the export quantity is relatively small, so the overall average quality of export products declines. This paper uses China's export trade with the US manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2013 as the object, uses the double difference method to verify the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China's manufacturing products, and deeply explores the differences in manufacturing at different technology levels. The study finds that, unlike previous studies, this paper finds that the decline of trade policy uncertainty is conducive to the improvement of manufacturing export product quality, mainly because fierce market competition will force the manufacturing industry to improve the quality of export products, and the study also finds that the decline of trade policy uncertainty mainly promotes the improvement of product quality of low-tech manufacturing products, and has little impact on the manufacturing industry with medium and high technology levels.

The Impact of the "Belt and Road" Initiative on China's Export Trade

The Impact of the "Belt and Road" Initiative on China's Export Trade

Analyzing the risk contagion effect of stock market and foreign exchange market in the context of Sino-US trade frictions based on the perspective of behavioral finance

For the empirical study in this paper, the trade friction variables represented by the effectively applied weighted average tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China and technical barriers to trade have a negative impact on the size of China's export trade, and the impact of technical barriers to trade has a lag. In the analysis of the impact of trade structure, from the perspective of technology intensity, the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China's exports to the United States of low- and medium-technology industries is significantly greater than that of high-technology industries, mainly due to the high technology level of high-technology products, strict standard requirements, strong innovation capacity, the impact of trade frictions is not significant; from the perspective of product end-use, investment goods are significantly more affected by Sino-US trade frictions than consumer goods, and the impact on industrial manufactured products is much greater than primary products, the results of the difference is mainly affected by the nature of the product, export volume and the area of friction.

Divergent Development experiences: A general outlook of China and Latin America’s Development trends

Following a definition of development that brings back the role of productive capabilities and endorses structural change, this paper examines two key elements and their trends: industrialization and trade patterns. Through the analysis of economic factors covering the period 1980-2019, this paper aims to offer insights into the elements that have led to divergent development outcomes in China and Latin America, paying particular attention to the cases of Chile and Mexico. Indicators including yearly GDP growth, the share of the world GDP, and per-capita GDP will be used to show that China has outpaced Latin America in terms of growth. Moreover, it will also be demonstrated that while Latin America is experiencing a deindustrialization trend, evidenced by a decline in the manufacturing sector and low levels of high-technology exports, China has experienced rapid industrialization. Moreover, China's exports serve as an illustration of a country that transitioned from producing and exporting low-value manufactured items to more complex goods with higher added value, while Chile has not been able to leave behind its reliance on natural resources. In the case of Mexico, although its exports are not concentrated in primary commodities, they are built on a maquiladora model that relegates it to the bottom of industrial value chains.

지식재산권보호가 중국의 수출에 미치는 영향: 산업별⋅국가별 비교 분석

This paper analyze the impact of countries' intellectual property protections on China’s exports. We construct panel data of China's export and 120 countries’s intellectual property protection level during the period of 2012~2020. First, the entire industry was analyzed, and only high-tech industries which intellectual property rights are important were analyzed. And also compare whether there was a difference in the protection of intellectual property rights by dividing trade partners into OECD and non-OECD countries. As a result, the higher the level of intellectual property protection in the imported country, the more positive in China's total exports and the high-tech industrial exports, which can be seen that the market expansion of intellectual property protection is effective. In the case of non -OECD member countries, the level of intellectual property protection has been significantly affected by China's total exports, and when targeting the entire industry, the impact of intellectual property protection level is larger than the high–tech industry.

The Effect of Logistics Performance Index of RCEP Countries on China's Export Trade

The signing of RCEP has created new opportunities for the development of China's export trade, and international logistics capacity is an important factor affecting the conduct of international trade. This paper qualitatively describes and analyzes the LPI index and its sub-indicators of RCEP member countries, and empirically investigates the impact of logistics performance level on China's export trade through an extended gravity model. The study shows that there are large differences in logistics performance levels among RCEP member countries, especially in South Asia, where the quality of logistics infrastructure and customs efficiency are the most lagging behind, which are the key factors pulling down the logistics performance index; the signing of RCEP has effectively promoted China's foreign trade level, but there are great differences in export amounts to different countries, and the logistics performance levels of importing countries and China's export trade are significant positive correlation, the improvement of logistics performance is conducive to promoting China's export trade to RCEP member countries, and from the viewpoint of logistics links, the role of logistics infrastructure quality is the strongest, and the influence of cargo transportation timeliness is the weakest.

Will the imposition of carbon tariffs enhance or worsen the carbon performance of China's export industries? A reality check based on 28 manufacturing industry segments.

Carbon tariffs are directly linked to carbon performance and have an impact on export sectors. This paper examines the relationship between carbon tariffs and carbon performance based on China's manufacturing sector, helping to visually quantify the impact of carbon tariffs and to adopt more favourable strategies to address the impact. This paper uses data from 28 manufacturing industry segments in China from 2009 to 2019, estimating carbon performance using an SBM model incorporating non-desired outputs. The panel Tobit model is also used to explore the driving role of carbon tariffs and related variables on carbon performance. The results show the following: First of all, China's manufacturing carbon performance is generally on an upward trend but is mainly driven by improvements in the light textile and machinery manufacturing industries. Secondly, in terms of drivers of carbon performance, the imposition of carbon tariffs will increase the carbon performance of China's manufacturing sector. Furthermore, R&D investment is positively correlated with carbon emission performance. The significant positive impact of export dependence is manifested in the light and textile industry. Energy intensity has a significant positive impact on the textile industry and a significant negative impact on the resource processing industry. Environmental regulations have a negative impact on the light textile industry. China should optimize the industrial chain of resource processing industry. At the same time, China should increase R&D investment in emission reduction and product upgrades, encourage the export of light and textile industrial products, increase the import of resource processing industrial products. Also, the government should formulate environmental regulatory policies that are close to the nature of the industry.

Home Bias: How Has It Affected the Border Effects of China’s Trade?

ABSTRACT This study aimed to analyze the impact of home bias on China’s trade border effects by constructing a pure exchange computable general equilibrium model. The results indicate that the border effects of external import, export, and trade in China are 6.96 times, 4.62 times, and 5.60 times their respective counterparts in interregional trade. On elimination of national bias, the border effects of China’s external import, export, and trade fell by 96.37%, 93.71%, and 95.18%, respectively, while border effects of China’s interregional trade became 8.06%. By eliminating regional bias, the border effects of China’s external imports, exports, and trade decreased by 3.63%, 6.29%, and 4.82%, respectively.

ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ОБЪЕМОВ ЭКСПОРТА КИТАЯ

The paper analyzes the value volumes of China's exports for 2011-2021 by constructing an econometric model of a time series. The polynomial equation of the trend of the third degree is constructed by introducing fictitious variables. The result of the work is a forecast for 2022