Analyzing the risk contagion effect of stock market and foreign exchange market in the context of Sino-US trade frictions based on the perspective of behavioral finance

Abstract

For the empirical study in this paper, the trade friction variables represented by the effectively applied weighted average tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China and technical barriers to trade have a negative impact on the size of China's export trade, and the impact of technical barriers to trade has a lag. In the analysis of the impact of trade structure, from the perspective of technology intensity, the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China's exports to the United States of low- and medium-technology industries is significantly greater than that of high-technology industries, mainly due to the high technology level of high-technology products, strict standard requirements, strong innovation capacity, the impact of trade frictions is not significant; from the perspective of product end-use, investment goods are significantly more affected by Sino-US trade frictions than consumer goods, and the impact on industrial manufactured products is much greater than primary products, the results of the difference is mainly affected by the nature of the product, export volume and the area of friction.