Export Growth Research Articles

Uncertainty of the Export VAT Rebate Policy: Measurement and Its Effects

Abstract Based on the export VAT rebate rate data from 2004 to 2015, this paper measures the uncertainty of Chinese export VAT rebate policy by using unexpected fluctuation of export VAT rebate rate, and finds that the index varies across products, years and industries. Then, the paper studies the influence of the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy on China’s export growth from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The research results show that this uncertainty reduces the expected profit of export enterprises and their optimal output, and significantly reduces the growth rate of the ordinary export that applies the export VAT rebate method, but it has no impact on the processing export. By decomposing total value of exports, it is found that the growth in the number of ordinary export relationship and average sales decrease with the increase of uncertainty, while the average price growth rate increases slightly, and these effects are only reflected in the newly entered export relations. The findings suggest that when the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy is high, enterprises are more cautious about entering the ordinary export market and more likely to adopt a low-quantity-high-price strategy.

Temporal Analysis of Livestock Production and Exports and its Significance for Food Security

Background: Livestock provides diverse food and non-food products, supports rural households along with serving as a secondary source of income for small and marginal farmers. Livestock aids in food production, enriches soil fertility and supply raw material to various industries. Livestock directly contributes to nutritional security by providing essential proteins and micronutrients, preventing under-nutrition and deficiencies.This paper delves into the changing scenario of India’s livestock sector by examining production, export patterns of livestock products and the role of livestock in food and nutritional security. Methods: Available secondary data on production of livestock products in India have been divided into four sub periods: sub period-I (1980-81 to 1989-90), sub period-II (1990-91 to 1999-00), sub period-III (2000-01 to 2009-10) and sub period-IV (2010-11 to 2021-22) and have been analyzed along with export data covering the period 1991-2021 andpopulation data from first livestock census (1951) after independence to 20th livestock census (2019). Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) using trend equation and instability index using Cuddy Della Valle Index has been worked out for the data. Result: Production of egg, milk and meat has shown consistent growth of around 6%, 5% and 8%, respectively over the past five decades with low to moderate overall instability (~8-21%). But wool production has turned negative in the last two decades despite India being the world’s third-largest sheep population. The growth in exports of dairy and meat products has gained momentum after globalization with a significant overall growth rate of 10.37% and 7.10% for the period under study. But in terms of instability dairy exports are more volatile (68.11%) compared to meat products (30.39%). Exports of poultry products showed negative growth rates with the highest instability (86.77%) over the entire study period.

Export Performance Analysis on Indonesian Yellowfin Thunas (HS 030342) in the United States Market

Tuna is a major fish commodity that has high economic value that dominates the export market of Indonesian fishery industry products. This study was carried out to analyze competitiveness, comparative advantage, trading patterns and trends of Indonesian tuna exports in the United States market from 2013-2022 using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Constant Market Share (CMS). The results showed that Indonesia's RCA value is above one (>1) during the 2013-2022 period, meaning that Indonesian tuna has competitiveness, the RSCA value is also above one (>0), meaning that Indonesian tuna has a comparative advantage. According to the CMS analysis, Indonesia’s growth of standard exports to the United States is still lower than the growth of world standard exports to the United States so that Indonesia's export performance is still relatively low. The distribution effect of the Indonesian tuna market shows a positive value which means that Indonesia has succeeded in showing good product distribution performance to the market. The effect of commodity composition and the effect of competitiveness of Indonesian tuna shows a negative value so that Indonesia is considered to have not met the market and is less competitive.

Comments by Nam Seok Kim, on How Does Trade Liberalization in Imports Affect China's Export Growth Pattern?

Comments by Nam Seok Kim, on How Does Trade Liberalization in Imports Affect China's Export Growth Pattern?

How Does Trade Liberalization in Imports Affect China's Export Growth Pattern?

Abstract Optimizing export growth patterns and improving the quality of export trade have become prominent issues that need to be addressed urgently in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty. This study utilizes matched data from the CEPII database (1995–2020) and WTO tariff database, adopts a product-level perspective based on the triple margins of exports, and uses an individual-time two-way fixed-effects model to investigate the impact of import trade liberalization on China's export growth pattern. The research findings are as follows: (1) Increasing levels of import trade liberalization are beneficial for enhancing the extensive margin, intensive margin, and quantity margin of products, while exerting a restraining effect on the price margin. This strengthens the price advantage of Chinese products, indicating that import trade liberalization helps optimize China's export growth pattern. (2) Compared with the intensive margin, import trade liberalization has a more significant promoting effect on the extensive margin. (3) The conclusions drawn from heterogeneity analysis suggest that trade liberalization has a more pronounced effect on the extensive margin, intensive margin, and quantity margin of products in medium-high technology industries, differentiated products, and intermediate goods. This study holds important theoretical and practical significance for evaluating the economic benefits of expanding imports, optimizing China's export growth pattern, and improving the quality of export trade.

Export Instability, Investment, Export Growth and Economic Growth in India

The “Export-led Growth Hypothesis,” as it is known in the literature, is still a popular issue in both theoretical and empirical research. According to the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH), a key factor in determining growth is the expansion of exports. It asserts that growing capital and labour inputs into the economy as well as exports can contribute to a country’s overall growth. The association between economic development, export growth, export fluctuation, and real effective exchange rate (REER) in India from 2001 to 2021 is examined in this paper using a multiple linear regression analysis model. Additionally, the impacts of foreign exchange, export fluctuation on investment, and import of capital goods have also been studied. The autocorrelation is also tested using the Durbin-Watson (D-W) test. Investigation of the association between income growth and exports in the context of India reveals that the country’s exports haven’t increased significantly enough to prove the theory of export-led growth. For instance, ceteris paribus, one per cent change in exports over time is expected to result in a 0.007 per cent increase in GDP. Weaker global demand, inflation, dropping exports, and growing global trade conflict all contribute to a weaker-than-expected positive link between GDP and exports. However, the findings have also shown that one per cent rise in instability increases GDP by 5.04 per cent. Furthermore, research has indicated that export instability does contribute to import for capital goods and demonstrates the relationship between investment and export instability is positive but not statistically significant. The result for policy is that, in order to decrease the negative impacts of export fluctuations, India should concentrate on those goods in which it has a competitive edge. The primary factors of the excessive volatility and restricted growth must be fully investigated in order to mitigate instability, and inherent flaws must be addressed.

아태지역 ODA사업 지원을 위한 대상국 선정 및 지원 사업 연구

Purpose: This study aimed t o e stablish strategies for strengthening t ransport networks in the Asia-Pacific region and select countries for support to improve port and logistics infrastructure. Research design, data, and methodology: Cluster analysis was used to select the target countries for support. The analysis was based on 15 variables, including GDP, economic growth, population, import and export growth, tariff rates, import tax rates, and container volumes, derived from literature studies of 53 UN ESCAP member countries. Cluster analysis was performed using a primary cluster analysis utilizing the quantitative variables and a secondary cluster analysis with qualitative variables. Results: The analysis identified 10 countries (Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Vanuatu) as candidates for support. For each of the 10 selected countries, 10 support projects were proposed, considering the current status of shipping and ports in the country and national infrastructure development plans. Conclusions: The smooth progress of a project requires a consideration of the form and type of ODA support, support port facilities that can handle various cargo, and propose solutions to the problem of volume generation.

Export Diversification Drive: The Role of Nigerian Manufacturing Sector

This research delves into the enigmatic relationship between Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and the nation’s drive for export diversification. Leveraging a regression analysis and time series data from 1985 to 2022, it paints a nuanced picture of their complex interplay. The analysis confirms the stationarity of all variables at first differenced. Additionally, the Johansen co-integration test reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between them, suggesting that while their short-term fluctuations may diverge, they are ultimately bound by a deeper interdependence. The analysis exposes a weak and negative association between the two, hinting at the meagre contribution of the manufacturing sector to export diversification during the studied period. This underscores the need for a critical reevaluation and targeted interventions to unlock the sector’s potential as a powerful engine of export growth. Therefore, the study advocates for a paradigm shift in approach. Instead of government’s piecemeal efforts, it should champion the creation of a robust and vibrant manufacturing ecosystem, pulsating with innovation and productivity. This vision will envision modern factories humming with cutting-edge processes, meticulously crafting highquality goods capable of holding their own on the global stage. From value-added agricultural products to sophisticated machinery, the potential portfolio of Nigerian exports is vast and brimming with promise.

Investigating the Nexus between Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Goods Imports: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

This research found the empirical analysis between capital goods imports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) of Pakistan by applying the annual time series data from 1975 to 2020. The importance of this area of research arises from its role in the balance of payments by incorporating foreign direct investment in the capital goods import demand model. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the long run relationship between dependent and independent variables. Furthermore, fully modified least square (FMOLS) and Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) techniques are also applied to check the robustness of the estimated long-run results. The findings indicate that capital goods import is positively influenced by foreign direction in the case of Pakistan. Moreover, domestic income, and relative price both have theoretically correct signs. On the other hand, the coefficient of export is negatively associated with import demand, which means that capital goods imports are not used in the promotion of export growth in Pakistan. We recommend that an import substitution policy should be encouraged to divert FDI toward the promotion of export growth and hence reduce the trade deficit in Pakistan.

Growth and Variability in Major Fruit Spice Cultivation and Export from India

Growth and Variability in Major Fruit Spice Cultivation and Export from India

Competitive Textile Exports: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and China in the United States of America Market

The clothing and textile industry is crucial to Pakistan's economy, significantly contributing to GDP and employment. Pakistan, with its strong expertise in cotton manufacturing, faces intense competition from China in the lucrative United States market. This study aims to evaluate Pakistan's textile and clothing exports to the United States and analyze its competitive advantages against China. Utilizing two analytical techniques, the Trade Competitiveness Index and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), this research assesses Pakistan's positioning in the US market relative to China. Secondary data from authoritative sources such as WITS and UN Comtrade, along with scholarly articles, serve as the basis for the analysis. The study focuses on three key textile divisions (SITC 26, SITC 65, and SITC 84) and examines their impact on US imports. Key findings indicate that while Pakistan has demonstrated growth in textile exports, particularly in textile fabrics (SITC 26) and clothing (SITC 84), it still lags behind China in overall export volume and market share. The RCA analysis reveals that Pakistan possesses a comparative advantage in specific textile categories, though China's market dominance remains unchallenged. The research identifies several challenges for Pakistan, including inefficient resource use, energy supply issues, high production costs, and outdated equipment. However, opportunities for improvement lie in enhancing quality standards, compliance with international trade requirements, and strategic policy enhancements. The study provides actionable recommendations to strengthen Pakistan’s competitiveness, such as modernizing production equipment, optimizing resource use, and exploring new markets. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and businesses aiming to strengthen Pakistan's textile exports and navigate the highly competitive global textile landscape.

Comparative analysis of the economic effects of special economic zones in China and Korea: evidence from a PSM difference-in-difference method

ABSTRACT This paper examines the economic effects of the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) on the export of industrial complexes in China and Korea, focusing on the synergistic economic effects between different types of SEZs, using the Propensity Score Matching difference-in-difference method. We use panel data of 284 Chinese cities and 162 Korean cities between 2000 and 2019, focusing on 93 industrial complexes in China, and 569 industrial complexes in Korea. We compare the effects of Free Trade Zones (FTZs) with other special economic zones, including Bonded Areas (BA) in China and Free Economic Zones (FEZ) and Foreign Investment Regions (FIZ) in Korea. The establishment of SEZs has a significant positive impact on the export growth of industrial complexes in both China and Korea. In Korea, a significant synergy effect on export is found between the FTZ and the FIZs. There is no synergy effect found between FEZs and other economic zones. After the implementation of the FTZ policy in China, the export of BA’s industrial complexes with ports and airports significantly increased, indicating that the FTZs have a positive synergy effect on the BAs with convenient transportation.

TREND AND GROWTH OF INDIA’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN THE POST-REFORM PERIOD

The study is focused on evaluating the growth and trend of India's agricultural exports after the implementation of economic reforms. The changes in the composition and volume of agricultural exports and imports in the post-reform period, especially after the economic reforms of 1991, demonstrate significant shifts in India's agricultural trade. The liberalization measures adopted during this period, with the aim of integrating the Indian economy into the global market, have deeply influenced the agricultural sector. The post-reform period has seen substantial growth and diversification in India’s agricultural trade, influenced by liberalized trade policies, global market dynamics, and technological advancements. While opportunities for expansion remain, addressing challenges such as climate change, market access, and sustainability will be crucial for future growth. The results indicate that India's agricultural exports have experienced remarkable growth from 1990–1991 to 2020–2021. India's agricultural exports grew from $3.35 billion in 1990-91 to $35.93 billion in 2019-20, marking a nearly 12-fold increase over 30 years. The country is currently facing significant challenges such as low productivity and high logistics costs, limited value addition, challenges in export promotion and branding, non-tariff barriers, and quality issues.

Impact of exchange rates, Inflation, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness on exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia

Globalization and economic integration have an impact on increasing trade volume and economic growth in various countries, especially those that are open in their economies. This situation also provides ease of capital mobility between countries, which makes investment not only rely on domestic investment but also on foreign direct investment. Exchange rates and inflation also affect export growth, imports, and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of exchange rate, inflation, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and economic openness on export and import growth. This study used time series data during the period 1980–2021, sourced from UNCTAD, ASYB, and Indonesian Central Bank (BI). The analysis model used is multiple linear regression with the help of EViews software, which first tests classical assumptions so that the regression results are Best Linier Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The results show that foreign direct investment and government spending can significantly increase the rate of exports and imports. Meanwhile, the depreciating rupiah against the US dollar cannot encourage an increase in both exports and imports. Furthermore, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness can significantly increase economic growth. The other variables, net exports and inflation, have no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth rate.

Reshaping the Industrial Policy Framework of Turkiye: Integrating Exports at the Core of AI-Driven Development

This study explores the evolving landscape of industrial policy amid deglobalization, protectionism, and the technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence (AI). The shift in industrial policies across the US and EU, driven by geopolitical tensions, climate change, and economic rivalry, has resulted in increased protectionist measures. The US, once an advocate of free-market principles, now implements policies like the CHIPS Act to enhance domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on China. For developing countries like Turkiye, integrating exports into industrial policy is crucial. Despite Turkiye's significant export growth, challenges such as low R&D spending and a small share of high-tech exports persist. The article emphasizes the need for a dedicated institution, the Industrial Policy Institutes of Turkey (TEPE), to focus on innovation, competitiveness, and sustainable development. TEPE would encompass various sub-institutions dedicated to high technology, energy, defense, and digitalization. AI can play a strategic role in analyzing sectors, optimizing supply chains, and enhancing export competitiveness. By leveraging AI, Turkiye can transform its industrial policies and position itself more robustly in the global market, ensuring economic resilience and growth.

РОЗВИТОК МІЖНАРОДНИХ ТОРГІВЕЛЬНИХ ВІДНОСИН В КОНТЕКСТІ МІЖНАРОДНОГО МЕНЕДЖМЕНТУ

Introduction. Integration into the global economy and active participation in international trade contribute to economic development, job creation, and improved living standards. The application of international management in this context helps companies to effectively manage their international operations, adapt to different cultural and regulatory environments, and ensure sustainable development in the global economy. The purpose of the article. International trade is an important element of the global economic system that affects the development and welfare of countries. The main purpose of this article is to study the essence of international trade and its role in the system of international management. Formulation of the goal allowed us to identify a number of tasks to clarify the essence of international trade and the main factors of its development, to analyze the trends in Ukraine's trade with the European Union and the rest of the world. Metods. The study of international trade development in the context of international management requires the use of empirical research methods and analysis of statistical data that allow for a comprehensive analysis of market dynamics, the commodity structure of international trade, and the impact of global processes. Results. The article proves that international trade is a central link in the complex system of the global economy and plays a key role in the interaction between countries and regions of the world, influencing their economies, politics and society. It is also determined that international trade provides countries with access to a variety of goods and services that they do not produce or cannot produce on their own. The paper substantiates the importance of import and export growth in developed countries and identifies the interrelationships between different regions of the world. An important aspect of Ukraine's international trade based on Ukraine's relations with the European Union is also highlighted. The steps that Ukraine is taking to maintain such relations are also outlined. Based on the analysis, it is proved that Ukraine's exports are growing, especially in the context of trade with the EU, but there are certain dynamics and peculiarities in interaction with other regions of the world. Conclusiоns. The development of Ukraine's export potential and integration into the global economy are possible only if the structure of international trade is radically improved. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to use various forms of international economic cooperation.

An Application of the Kaldor-Dixon-Thirlwall Model for Regional Economic Growth in Mexico

This paper analyzes the links between exports and regional economic growth in Mexico. The Kaldor-Dixon-Thirlwall theoretical model and the econometric methodology of Durbin spatial panel models are used, which were estimated for the periods 2008-2019 and 2008-2023. The econometric results show, among other findings, that the relationship between regional growth and state export growth is null and non-significant, while trade openness and its absolute growth are positive and significant. The weak relationship between exports and regional growth implies that industrial policy proposals other than traditional ones should be promoted. A limitation of this study is the absence of data on regional imports, which could have enabled a more comprehensive examination of theoretical frameworks. Nonetheless, the study's significance lies in highlighting the limited role of the export sector in driving regional growth in Mexico, attributed to the weakening of national productive links.

The flip side of the China syndrome: Local labor market effects in China

AbstractUS–China trade is widely thought to have contributed significantly to the decline in US manufacturing employment, sometimes called the China syndrome. Flipping the point of view, we examine its impact on Chinese local labor markets between 2000 and 2010. In prefectures most exposed to export growth, there is a pronounced increase in manufacturing employment, primarily among young, low‐educated, rural people and more for blue‐collar workers. Beyond manufacturing, there is a decline in agricultural, yet an expansion in service employment, exhibiting substantial heterogeneity across demographics. The export‐driven structural transformation is profound and long‐lasting out to 2020. Among nonworking people, export growth primarily increases school attendance and the share of people relying on family support, suggesting an income effect.

Does financial development and economic growth matter for services export? Cross-country evidence from OECD countries

The unprecedented growth in the export of services and its accompanying economic incentives has invited discussions on service export determinants. Against this background, the present article is an attempt to test whether the contemporary theories on causal links between exports, financial development and growth hold for services export. For realizing the objective, we employed the panel cointegration technique for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over a period of 23 years (2000–22). Findings of both first and second generation cointegration test indicate a long run equilibrium between services export, financial development and growth. However, there are differences in the short and long association, as outcomes of panel auto autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show financial development to be significant determinant of services export only over long run. Additionally, granger causality test suggests a feedback mechanism prevalent between services export-financial development, services export-growth and financial development-growth. The empirical evidence offered in the study elucidates the significance of continuously developing the financial markets and institutions for achieving sustained growth in export of services. The bi-directional relationship between the variables also presents an opportunity to strengthen economic growth and financial development process through policies aimed at expanding services export.

Micro and Small Enterprises’ Export Competencies and Cooperation in Indonesia

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) have an important role in Indonesia to play not only as a source of employment but also growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and exports, specially manufactured goods such as garments, food, footwear, electronics, and crafts. To support MSME exports, the Indonesian government hopes to build stronger collaboration with them. Many journal articles regarding exports of MSMEs have been executed in developing countries. However, no research has been conducted concerning the cooperative role of MSMEs in supporting their exports. Therefore, this descriptive study filled the gap by analyzing the cooperation of MSMEs in supporting their exports in Indonesia by analyzing secondary data from the 2019 Profile of Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) in the Manufacturing Industry from the Indonesian Statistics (BPS) and online database from the Indonesian Minister of Cooperative and Small and Medium Enterprise. Although the data does not provide further information regarding how many MSEs are members of cooperatives who export, the scatter plot in this study shows that there is a positive relationship between the number of MSEs who export and the number of MSEs who are members of cooperatives. Even though other factors had a stronger influence on export competencies, cooperatives still supported MSEs to export their goods. This study contributes to more substantial empirical evidence on the relationship between cooperatives and MSMEs in Indonesia and developing countries.