Export Dependence Research Articles

УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРАРНЫХ РЕГИОНОВ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВНЕШНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТИ

The increasing sanctions attacks, the transformation of foreign economic supply chains, and restrictions on access to global financial markets have a significant impact on the parameters of sustainable development of the national economy and its regions. At the same time, these processes, which belong to the category of macroeconomic external shocks, manifest themselves very heterogeneously in the context of the regional economic systems of the Russian Federation, which have different potential for resistance and adaptation to new conditions. Of particular interest is the potential for shock resistance (resilience) of regions with agricultural specialization, which form the potential for food security of the country and determine the key frontiers of the quality of life of the population. The novelty of the study is the proposed three-dimensional model, which assumes the need to study the processes under study through the prism of the manifestation of three key components (indicators). The first one characterizes the readiness of the research object for systemic transformations (Res_eff), and the two following ones (export dependence and import dependence) (Res_uyazv), combined into a single, aggregated indicator, form the potential for assessing the vulnerability of regions in the context of the transformation of foreign economic relations. The ratio of these indicators to each other determines the value of the integral indicator of the shock resistance of the region. Based on the developed methodological tools, as well as relying on descriptive data analysis methods to identify regions of Volga Federal District with an increased level of agro-industrial specialization, two regional groups with similar characteristics of aggregated resistance were identified. The first group, with a moderate level of shock resistance, included the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan. These entities are characterized by an increased risk of sustainable development in the context of sanctions attacks. The second group with a high level of resistance (Res ≥2) included Saratov, Penza and Orenburg regions, forming the framework of agricultural subjects of Volga Federal District with the highest level of shock resistance.

Trade dependence and cultural distance: An analysis of economic interactions and humanistic exchanges between China and ASEAN countries

AbstractThis study examines the influence of trade dependence, encompassing both export and import dependence, and economic dependence on cultural distance within the context of China and ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2020. Employing random‐effects models and, we investigate the impact of these dependencies on cultural distance and explore the moderating effects of humanistic exchange. Our findings reveal that trade dependence, export dependence, import dependence, and economic dependence exert negative effects on cultural distance between China and ASEAN countries. These findings are supported by the robustness test. We further analyze the moderating effects of humanistic exchange on the relationship between trade dependence, economic dependence, and cultural distance, confirming significant moderating effects specifically for trade dependence. Additionally, we observe that regional trade agreements and cultural exchange programs have heterogeneous effects on the relationship between trade and economic dependence and cultural distance, particularly among China and ASEAN countries with established agreements and programs.

Analyzing Türkiye’s Import Dependency of Exports: A Sectoral Approach

The high import dependency of exports is an important cause of external vulnerability for economies pursuing an export-led growth strategy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the import dependency of exports in Türkiye, which adopts the export-led growth model, and to identify the sectors that will contribute to reducing the import dependency of exports. This study investigates Türkye’s time-varying import dependency of exports from January 2013 to January 2024 using ISIC Rev.4 classification and state space model. The findings reveal that while the import dependency of exports was on a downward trend from early 2013 until September 2019, this trend reversed after this date and the import dependency of exports started to increase rapidly. A one percentage increase in the deviation of exports from their potential increases the import dependency of exports by 0.65% on average. The highest import dependence of exports is observed in the Manufacturing sector. When examining manufacturing sub-sectors, Textile, Wearing Apparel and Basic Metals show the highest dependency increase, while Beverages, Tobacco Products and Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media sub-sectors exhibit the lowest. From this point of view, in order to reduce the import dependency of exports, policies such as increasing export potential, reducing deviations from potential and encouraging vertical integration with the domestic industrial structure, as well as providing tax advantages to encourage the use of domestic intermediate goods especially in sectors with high import dependency can be recommended. Furthermore, technological innovations that allow using domestically produced intermediate goods and capital goods also may create permanent effects on decreasing import dependency.

China and the Andean Community: Opportunities and Risks out of the Decoupling Process

Even if China and the United States (US) are not heading toward a redux of classic military, Cold war logic, they are locked in an economic confrontation that has quickly turned into a dispute over prospective economic supremacy and heavily driven by technological advances. While the first area of intervention was international trade, progressively, the protectionist policies both nations began to implement were directed toward a broader plan to secure a leading edge in the future of technological development. Then, technological decoupling might be a more accurate term to describe the key courses of action to be followed in the forthcoming hegemonic struggle. In this setting, the question arises, what are the risks and opportunities for China in its relation with the Andean Community (CAN)? The departing argument is that the economic tensions between the world’s largest economies will cause growing competition. On the one hand, this will provide CAN an opportunity to improve their participation in the global economy, but on the other hand, risks for China for securing resources. The results show that Andean Community (CAN) trade relations with both the US and China follow a typical centre-periphery model. Still, it is noteworthy that China’s imports from CAN are almost entirely basic goods, while the US purchases significant amounts of goods that make part of the region’s productive diversification efforts since the 1990s. Regarding the opportunities for CAN, through a novel methodology, it was found that there are effectively some added-value manufactures that can substitute trade between China and the US. They represent a huge opportunity for the Andean nations to shift away from primary export dependency to manufactured goods. Regarding risks for China, on the one hand, the largest competition is expected in minerals such as molybdenum and tungsten; and agricultural products such as buckwheat and fish fats. On the other hand, the US has the lead in current LAC exports, given that it exceeds China’s current purchases

The ‘Good Kiwi’ and the ‘Good Environmental Citizen’?: Dairy, national identity and complex consumption-related values in Aotearoa New Zealand

Alongside concerns for animal welfare, concerns for land, water, and climate are undermining established food identities in many parts of the world. In Aotearoa New Zealand, agrifood relations are bound tightly into national identities and the materialities of export dependence on dairying and agriculture more widely. Dairy/ing identities have been central to national development projects and the politics that underpin them for much of New Zealand’s history. They are central to an intransigent agrifood political ontology. For the last decade, however, they have been challenged by the identity politics of ethical food consumption. This paper explores the ensuing contests and asks how they are reshaping agrifood identities. We draw on interviews with 15 participants in Aotearoa New Zealand who have made dietary transitions that reduce or exclude dairy products. Our aim is not to identify a new post-dairying identity or claim a reconfigured national identity, but to examine the collision of production-consumption values in the context of a dominant place-based food identity. We ask how participants navigate contradictory commitments to becoming ‘good environmental citizens’ whilst remaining ‘good national citizens’. The paper offers insights for examining similar struggles elsewhere and the potential to shift agrifood relations and undermine entrenched political ontologies through ethical food consumption values.

Foreign Ownership and International Trade Performance in China

AbstractWe investigate the causal relationship between foreign ownership and international trade performance by comparing foreign‐acquired firms with similar domestic‐acquired firms in China with regard to changes in their post‐acquisition international trade performance. Our findings indicate that foreign ownership significantly enhanced the probability of both exporting and importing, and strongly increased trade value. Foreign ownership took effect from the year of the acquisition and persisted for at least 2 years. It stimulated both processing trade and ordinary trade, and expanded products and trading partners. Post‐acquisition trade performance also exhibited heterogeneity based on the different pre‐acquisition and post‐acquisition ownership. As for the underlying mechanisms, we show that firms experienced significant output expansion, increased export dependence, and eased financial constraints after foreign acquisition.

СУЧАСНИЙ СТАН ЕКСПОРТУ ТА ІМПОРТУ УКРАЇНИ ТА КРАЇН АЗІЙСЬКОГО КОНТИНЕНТУ

One of the important sources of financing the state budget is foreign trade. Even before the start of fullscale aggression, Ukraine had certain tasks to diversify regional foreign trade priorities. The expansion and deepening of foreign economic cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union, the start of work on new Asian markets, significantly overshadowed first the drop in trade volumes, and then the cessation of trade with Russia. The article examines in detail the foreign trade relations of Ukraine and the countries of the Asian continent. Consider the system of legal regulation of foreign trade relations of Ukraine and the countries of the Asian continent. The main indicators of trade in goods and services of Ukraine and Asian countries were examined in detail, and the commodity structure of trade in goods and services of Ukraine and Asian countries was analyzed. Certain conclusions and recommendations are provided: Ukraine has a generally favorable position in trade in goods with these countries, except for China. This is evidenced by the constant positive balance in trade with Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia. Trade with China has a permanent negative balance. At the same time, a significant threat is the significant coverage ratio in trade with these countries. The value of this indicator significantly exceeds the safety limit and indicates the high dependence of Ukrainian exports on the markets of these countries. Ukraine conducts active trade in services with Asian countries, but the composition of the main partners in trade in services has changed. It remains Turkey, as well as Cyprus, UAE, Israel. In trade in services, the situation for Ukraine is unfavorable, which is evidenced by a constant negative balance and an extremely low level of the coverage ratio. The composition of trade in services is traditional both for Ukraine and for partner countries: Ukraine exports transport services to Cyprus, the UAE and Turkey, Ukraine imports travel-related services from Cyprus, the UAE and Turkey, as well as transport services from the UAE and Turkey and Israel. These services fully correspond to the geographical location of the countries.

Enabling Net-Zero GHG Emissions in the UK Metals and Transport Industries through a Circular Supply Chain Framework

The UK metals industry is indispensable in achieving the country’s net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target by 2050, especially considering the heavy reliance of the transport sector on metals. This paper proposes strategies based on recycling and refining locally sourced scrap metals to build a robust circular supply chain. Findings revealed that 16% of global crude steel is used in transport and this accounts for 8% of the world’s GHG emissions. Domestically, iron and steel account for 14% of the UK industrial emissions, with over 8 million metric tons of scrap metals exported annually. Insights from stakeholders revealed export dependency and infrastructure gaps impeding circularity. Collaborative efforts between industry, government, and recyclers are vital. Investing in electric arc furnaces and storage can enable the processing of domestic metal scrap for high-quality yield. A closed-loop flow of battery-critical metals will also support sustainable manufacturing of electric vehicles. Ultimately, this paper advocates systemic efforts across policy, technology, infrastructure, and partnerships to realise a sustainable supply chain in the metals industry aligned with the decarbonisation and circular economy goals.

Threats of export dependence for the Russian industry in conditions of economic isolation by unfriendly states

Threats of export dependence for the Russian industry in conditions of economic isolation by unfriendly states

Import Dependence of Exports, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in the Turkish Economy: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis

This study aims to investigate the impact of import dependence on exports on the relation between aggregate demand and functional distribution of income in the Turkish economy. To achieve this, the model proposed by Stockhammer, Hein, and Grafl (2011) was employed and applied to the Turkish economy throughout 1988-2019. The findings indicate that the demand regime was wage-led in Türkiye throughout the sample period, and the integration of import content of exports into the analysis renders the demand regime even slightly more wage-led. Subperiod analyses show that even though the negative effect of a higher labor share in total income on net exports has doubled in absolute value from the 1995-98 subperiod to the 2008-18 subperiod, the positive effect of a higher labor share on private consumption expenditures did not only counterbalance but exceeded it, while its negative effect on private investment remained relatively small and constant over the subperiods. Our findings also show that the integration of import content of exports into the analysis also rendered all the subperiods moderately more wage-led.

Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat İlişkileri: Dalgalı Döviz Kuru Rejimi̇ Beklentileri̇ Karşılıyor mu?

Türkiye has implemented different exchange rate regimes and foreign trade policies throughout its 100-year history. The foreign trade deficit has been a persistent issue since the establishment of the free-market economy and its opening to foreign capital and aid. Since 1980, export-oriented industrialization policies and the withdrawal of the fixed exchange rate regime have not effectively reduced the foreign trade deficit. This study used the VAR model to examine the relationship between the real effective exchange rate, exports, and imports from March 2001 to June 2023. To investigate the causality between variables, Granger causality test is performed; impulse response functions are used to establish the direction of the variables' reaction to shocks; and variance decomposition is used to evaluate the distribution of impact over periods. The study's findings contradict economic theory's predictions about exchange rate, export, and import linkages. The Granger causality test failed to identify a causal relationship between the real effective exchange rate and exports and imports, leading to the conclusion that the level of the exchange rate has no influence on exports and imports. The bidirectional causation between exports and imports, with import changes largely explained by exports, confirms Türkiye's export dependence on imports

Drivers of global energy export dependency: A decomposition analysis

Exploring energy export dependency under the carbon neutrality target is crucial for energy security and low-carbon transition. Currently, few studies have examined drivers of energy export dependency; furthermore, most of them failed to capture the impact of technology on energy change and were unable to explain the causal factors of energy intensity decline. This study analyzed the trends and drivers of energy export dependency in 40 major countries from 2000 to 2019 through a decomposition approach, and explained the decline of energy intensity caused by technological progress. The empirical results indicate that energy prices and energy export importance are the key drivers of the increase in energy export dependency in OECD countries, while technological progress can effectively reduce the energy export dependency of non-OECD countries by decreasing energy intensity. In addition, OECD countries pay attention to capital-energy substitution capacity, while non-OECD countries attach importance to the improvement of technical efficiency. These findings provide a scientific reference for energy transition and sustainable development in various countries.

Linking Brazilian Regions to Value Chains: Is There a Potential for Regional Development?

This paper examines the subnational dimension of regional value-added transfers in multiscalar value chains in Brazil by analyzing the local content embedded in trade. This study reveals distinct spatial-based connectivity patterns within subnational and global value chains. An input–output model is employed to estimate the trade in value added from different Brazilian regions. The findings demonstrate that economically advanced regions, such as Southeastern Brazil, are both globally and nationally integrated and therefore stand to benefit from both types of integration. Conversely, subnational peripheries in the North and Northeastern states of Brazil play a crucial role in supplying raw materials for both domestic and global flows. These regions exhibit a clear profile of export dependency with low value-added content in trade. Consequently, our trade measures highlight a spatial concentration of development opportunities characterized by a distinct core–periphery pattern within the country. This imbalance in territorial capacity limits the potential for these regions to derive economic development benefits from integration into value chains.

The effect of interconnectivity on stock returns during the Global Financial Crisis

This paper examines the role of interconnectivity in global stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) using a comprehensive dataset of 8,827 firms traded in developed and emerging markets. Our contribution includes two key findings. We first use a difference-in-differences approach to show that stocks in countries with higher trade openness ex-ante to the GFC experienced lower average and annual cumulative returns of 9.08 p.p. and 36.32 p.p., respectively, compared to stocks traded in less exposed countries, one year after the crisis outbreak. Second, we employ complex network theory to analyze the role of network interconnectedness in our baseline results. To construct the network of interdependence between stock returns, we utilize a regularized Vector Autoregression Model, which enables us to overcome the limitations of commonly used correlation networks. Our findings suggest that while a firm’s high connectivity before the crisis can alleviate adverse shock effects resulting from export dependence, this effect may be weakened if the firm’s performance is closely linked to central firms.

Comparative analysis of shrimp, cocoa and banana exports from Ecuador for the years 2018 - 2022 and their impact on the trade balance

In the present work, exports from Ecuador are analyzed, mainly products such as shrimp, cocoa and bananas. The objective of this study is the following: Carry out a comparative analysis of shrimp, cocoa and banana exports from Ecuador in the period 2018 - 2022 and the incidence that this has on the trade balance. The investigative approach used has been mixed, from the qualitative point of view, the characteristics and qualities of the market were studied in terms of the oil and non-oil part. In relation to the quantitative, data representing figures related to: oil exports, non-oil exports, imports, monetary value, deficit, surplus, etc., obtained by the Central Bank of Ecuador, were studied. show in volume and production capacity. Ecuador reflects a high level of export dependency on agricultural products such as bananas, shrimp, and cocoa beans. Agricultural products represent approximately 11% of Ecuador's total exports to China, mainly distributed in four tariff parts such as shrimp, fishmeal, cocoa beans and bananas. The production of shrimp, bananas and cocoa currently represents one of the main sources of income for the country, due to the fall in the price of oil and the levels of exports of oil products. Ecuador's main market is the United States, China and followed by Vietnam and Peru.

German capitalism and migrant work in meat. How COVID allowed to break the path-dependent labour exploitation

Major COVID-19 outbreaks in slaughterhouses brought the extent of migrant labour exploitation in the German meat sector to the limelight. Adopting a historical-institutionalist perspective, we argue that the COVID-19 pandemic marked a critical juncture for migrant workers, albeit with highly contingent effects. Only in the meat sector could political salience enable a far-reaching policy response. By contrast, precisely to avoid any broader effects of the pandemic in terms of food supply, the social protection of seasonal workers was temporarily even lowered. While the reform’s precise effects remain to be seen, our comparative case study shows that member states have regulatory options to shape the effects of European integration. We understand the reform resistance and path dependence of the meat sector in the context of German capitalism’s export dependence. While undervaluation in the Euro regime is normally discussed as cause for wage restraint, underpaid migrant work as analysed in this paper appears as an additional explanation.

Will the imposition of carbon tariffs enhance or worsen the carbon performance of China's export industries? A reality check based on 28 manufacturing industry segments.

Carbon tariffs are directly linked to carbon performance and have an impact on export sectors. This paper examines the relationship between carbon tariffs and carbon performance based on China's manufacturing sector, helping to visually quantify the impact of carbon tariffs and to adopt more favourable strategies to address the impact. This paper uses data from 28 manufacturing industry segments in China from 2009 to 2019, estimating carbon performance using an SBM model incorporating non-desired outputs. The panel Tobit model is also used to explore the driving role of carbon tariffs and related variables on carbon performance. The results show the following: First of all, China's manufacturing carbon performance is generally on an upward trend but is mainly driven by improvements in the light textile and machinery manufacturing industries. Secondly, in terms of drivers of carbon performance, the imposition of carbon tariffs will increase the carbon performance of China's manufacturing sector. Furthermore, R&D investment is positively correlated with carbon emission performance. The significant positive impact of export dependence is manifested in the light and textile industry. Energy intensity has a significant positive impact on the textile industry and a significant negative impact on the resource processing industry. Environmental regulations have a negative impact on the light textile industry. China should optimize the industrial chain of resource processing industry. At the same time, China should increase R&D investment in emission reduction and product upgrades, encourage the export of light and textile industrial products, increase the import of resource processing industrial products. Also, the government should formulate environmental regulatory policies that are close to the nature of the industry.

Is the environment a victim of the economic downturn? Evidence from China's manufacturing firms

AbstractThis paper investigates whether pollution-intensive industries develop faster in a time of economic downturn. Using firm-level panel data from 2005 to 2013, we find supporting empirical results in an analysis of China's manufacturing industries in the 2008 economic crisis. We find that pollution-intensive firms tended to produce more compared with non-pollution-intensive firms in the 2008 economic crisis, with the pre-crisis period as a baseline. We further find that this effect is more pronounced in areas with higher export dependence and a smaller proportion of production from pollution-intensive industries. The relatively faster production expansion in pollution-intensive industries is more evident for state-owned enterprises.

The Impact of Country Risks on the Dependence Patterns of International Cobalt Trade: A Network Analysis Method

Cobalt is a key resource for the global energy transition, and the differences in the natural endowment of cobalt have led to frequent cobalt trade among countries. This study aims to reveal the dependence patterns of cobalt trade among countries and the impact of country risks (including political and economic risks) on the patterns. First, a cobalt import dependence network (CIDN) and a cobalt export dependence network (CEDN) are established using the network analysis method. Furthermore, this study uses network indicators to reveal the dependence patterns of cobalt trade among countries, and construct diversification indices of trade relations to further analyze the import source risk and the market concentration of cobalt trade. The results indicate that most cobalt importers have a high import source risk, and most cobalt exporters have a high market concentration. Finally, based on the panel regression methods, we reveal an interesting result showing that the dependence patterns of cobalt trade are significantly influenced by country risks. Specifically, on the one hand, for importers, an increase in political risk or economic risk has a negative impact on their dependence patterns of cobalt trade. On the other hand, for exporters, an increase in political risk or economic risk has different effects on their dependence patterns of cobalt trade. This study suggests that countries should pay more attention to the role of country risks in driving the dependence patterns when making cobalt trade policies.

일본 수출규제 이후 자동차 산업의 무역경쟁력 변화에 관한 연구

Purpose This study analyzed how Japan’s export regulations affected the imports and exports of the automobile industry, and examined whether there was a change in the trade competitiveness of the automobile industry. Design/Methodology/Approach In order to examine the degree of improvement in the automobile industry’s imports, exports, and trade competitiveness with Japan in Korea, the world and Japanese import and export statistical data of the automobile industry were aggregated for five periods. In addition, the change trend in the dependence on imports and exports of automobiles and parts to Japan was examined. In addition, the change in competitiveness of the Korean automobile and parts industry to Japan was examined using the trade specialization index. Findings As a result of the analysis, it was found that the trade deficit of automobiles and parts with Japan in 2021 fell compared to 2017 and 2019. In the case of import and export dependence, there was little change in export dependence, but it was confirmed that there was a significant decrease in import dependence. Korea’s dependence on exports of automobiles and parts to Japan has decreased slightly, but its dependence on imports has decreased by 10 times, which can be interpreted as Japan receiving more trade losses in the automobile industry due to the Korea-Japan trade dispute. Research Implications In the passenger car sector, it can be evaluated that there has been a result of the boycott of Japanese products, and efforts to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic cars and diversify import lines should continue to continue this in the future. In addition, in order to continue this performance in automobile parts, efforts should be made to improve product competitiveness and import dependence in more diverse item groups in the parts.