Drivers of global energy export dependency: A decomposition analysis

Abstract

Exploring energy export dependency under the carbon neutrality target is crucial for energy security and low-carbon transition. Currently, few studies have examined drivers of energy export dependency; furthermore, most of them failed to capture the impact of technology on energy change and were unable to explain the causal factors of energy intensity decline. This study analyzed the trends and drivers of energy export dependency in 40 major countries from 2000 to 2019 through a decomposition approach, and explained the decline of energy intensity caused by technological progress. The empirical results indicate that energy prices and energy export importance are the key drivers of the increase in energy export dependency in OECD countries, while technological progress can effectively reduce the energy export dependency of non-OECD countries by decreasing energy intensity. In addition, OECD countries pay attention to capital-energy substitution capacity, while non-OECD countries attach importance to the improvement of technical efficiency. These findings provide a scientific reference for energy transition and sustainable development in various countries.