Export Commodity Research Articles

The dynamics of bonds, commodities and bitcoin based on NARDL approach

Asset market dynamic interconnectedness poses significant challenges to investors, fund managers, and policymakers, particularly in periods of prolonged uncertainty and economic crisis. This study investigates the asymmetric connection between the Bitcoin, gold, and oil markets and the bond markets in the United States, Australia, China, and the European Union. The study employed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) on data ranging from January 1, 2017, to January 26, 2023, that accounted for the COVID-19 pandemic period and the Russian-Ukraine war. The results indicate that a fall in the Bitcoin price leads to a rise in bond prices, most profoundly in the European Union, where a 1% rise in the Bitcoin price leads to a 0.032% fall in bond prices. Similarly, the oil price index indicated a negative asymmetric shock in bond prices, with the most profound rise in the US bond market. The gold market index exhibited a positive connection to the bond market (US bond market falls by 0.476%) as the market overreacts to a fall in prices rather than a rise, and often in the long run rather than the short run, except for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin and oil markets act as strong safe-havens, while gold plays the role of a weak hedge during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. While our results are consistent over multiplier impact and stability tests, fund managers may find these significant due to the involvement of Russia and Ukraine as the two largest producers and exporters of several important commodities and energy. We discuss practical implications of our findings.

The Roles of Export of Coffee Commodity and Macroeconomics Factors on Unemployment in Indonesia

Coffee as the second largest agricultural commodity export has contributed to the economies of various countries, including Indonesia. In addition to looking at the role of coffee commodity exports, an analysis of macroeconomic factors' impact on Indonesia's unemployment rate is also analyzed. Because it is known that the unemployment rate is not only caused by one sector but some things influence it, including macroeconomic factors. This study analyzes the role of coffee commodity exports and macroeconomic factors, including GDP, inflation, and interest rates, on Indonesia's unemployment rate. The data used in this study is interpolated secondary data for the period 2000 to 2021. The estimation method used in this study is Robust Least Square (ROBUSTLS) which will then be estimated again using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method as a robustness test. The estimation results using the ROBUSTLS method prove that coffee commodity exports and macroeconomic factors significantly affect Indonesia's unemployment rate in aggregate. This form of influence is negative for coffee commodity exports (ExpCof), gross domestic product (GDP), and interest rate (IR). While inflation (Inf) has a positive impact on the unemployment rate (Ump). These findings are reinforced by the estimation results using the ARDL method with the result that ExpCof, GDP, and Inf have a significant relationship to Ump, while Inf is not as significant as the findings from the estimation results using the ROBUSTLS method.

An Overview of Global Non-Oil Commodities Export Competitiveness: A Comparative Analysis

This study provides a comparative evidence of global non-oil commodities export competitiveness. Analytically, this study employs descriptive statistics to highlights and overview the global non-oil commodities export competitiveness. The study used the reports of the world competitiveness index, world merchandise exports and imports by commodity, world economic forum ranking and the African industrial competitiveness for the comparative analysis. The findings show that United States, Singapore, China, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Netherlands are the most competitive economies in terms of non-oil commodities export, while, Mauritius, South Africa, Morocco, Seychelles, Tunisia and Algeria are the most competitive economies given the Africa ranking. The study presented significant recommendations: product quality, production capacity, export capacity, export market shares/size, market access and technological upgrading and innovation dynamic are considered as the main pillars that determine countries non-oil commodities competitiveness in the global market towards economic growth.

Commodity prices and domestic credit in Central and Eastern Europe: Are there asymmetric effects?

Fluctuations in commodity prices can have an impact on a firm’s costs and revenues, national income, or a country’s creditworthiness, leading to increased borrowing and levels of domestic credit. These effects need not be symmetric; it is possible that losses due to a commodity price decrease might be worse than the gains that result from an equivalent price increase. In addition, these dynamics might differ between frequently studied commodity exporters and energy importers such as those in Central and Eastern Europe. Here, an index of commodity prices and their volatility are included in a time-series model alongside the traditional macroeconomic determinants for 11 of these EU members. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions reveal that shocks to commodity prices spill over most strongly to inflation in Latvia and credit growth in Poland and Slovakia—the two countries that have seen continuous increases in credit. Cointegration analysis shows that while GDP growth and inflation drive credit levels in many cases, commodity price increases lead to increased credit shares in the Czech Republic, Latvia and Lithuania. A nonlinear model finds that commodity price increases also increase credit in Romania, while decreases lead to increased credit shares in Hungary. Commodity price volatility leads to credit increases in Latvia and Lithuania, confirming that these two Baltic countries are most affected by macroeconomic shocks.

ESG guidelines for agribusiness

Brazil is one of the main players in global agribusiness and leads the production and export of agricultural commodities. Companies that adopt strategies and business models, aligned with ESG guidelines, will differentiate themselves and create security for the maintenance and growth of the business. This article investigates how ESG (Environmental Social and Governance) guidelines can contribute to integration systems in Brazilian agribusiness. The work is a systematic literature review using the Parsifal® Software which resulted in 126 analyzed articles. We contribute to theory with 126 guidelines for ESG in agribusiness and to managerial practice with techniques and applications. We suggest future studies that address empirical evidence demonstrating ESG performance in different business models, as well as investigating how ESG impacts risk management to generate financial performance.

Blue Swimming Crab’s Conservation Area Determination in The North of Java Sea Using Reproductive Indicator

Despite being operated on a small scale, Blue Swimming Crab (BSC), Portunus pelagicus fishery substantially contributes to Indonesia's fisheries as the country's third-largest export commodity after tuna and shrimp. The high of BSC’s demand led to pressure on its stock. Hence a conservation area is needed to be set up, in this study, was proposed using reproduction indicators. with the case study of BSC Stock in Keboromo Waters, Pati Regency, North Central Java. The samples were collected from 38 sampling points at a distance of 2-12 miles from the coastline during November-December 2022 using collapsible crab traps. A reproduction observation on female crabs was carried out on their carapace width and gonad maturity stage. The data then were analyzed for the percentage of egg-berried females (EBF), size at first maturity (Lm) and first captured (Lc), and their spawning potential Ratio (SPR). This study found that the mature crabs (GMS2) in November and December were higher than in other stages while the proportion of ovigerous females (EBF) in December was higher than in November. At several sampling points, the size at first captures (Lc) was higher than that at first maturity (Lm) indicating a decrease in resource stocks due to a delay in the recruitment process. SPR of 19% showed that reproductive potential should be maintained before recruitment is limited, therefore based on the existence of EBF in particular sampling points it is recommended three conservation areas as a temporary no-take zone in BSC fishing ground in Keboromo Watres, Pati Regency.

Quality and fatty acid profiles of fish oil from tuna by-products extracted using a dry-rendering method

Abstract. Djamaludin H, Sulistiyati TD, Chamidah A, Nurashikin P, Roifah M, Notonegoro H, Ferdian PR. 2023. Quality and fatty acid profiles of fish oil from tuna by-products extracted using a dry-rendering method. Biodiversitas 24: 5757-5763. Tuna is an export commodity with a high-fat content, making it a valuable source of fish oil. However, a substantial portion of tuna, including viscera, eyes, and liver, some parts are underutilized, leading to waste. The study aims to determine the impact of extraction temperature (50°C, 60°C, and 70°C) on the yield, peroxide value, free fatty acids (%), p-anisidine value, and total oxidation value of the extracted oil from tuna (Euthynnus sp.) by-products. This research used the dry-rendering method to extract crude oil from tuna by-products and analyze quality characteristics and fatty acids. The results from the proximate value indicated that the crude lipid content in tuna by-products ranged from 13.03% to 19.01%. Extraction temperature significantly affected the yield, with the highest yield at 70°C correlating with the highest lipid content in innards. The lowest peroxide value is obtained from an extraction temperature of 50°C from all parts of tuna by-products, ranging from 2.01 to 2.09 meq/kg. Free fatty acid (%) levels in this study met the International Fish Oil Standards (IFOS), and different temperature treatments had a significant effect (P<0.05). The lowest value of p-anisidine, 6.11 meq/kg, was obtained from an extraction temperature of 50°C for innards samples, and the p-anisidine value increased with temperature, reflecting secondary oxidation products. The total oxidation lowest value was obtained from extraction at 50°C (14.84 meq/kg) from viscera by IFOS (?20 meq/kg), and it was within acceptable limits. The fatty acid profile of the crude extract of tuna by-product oil resulting from extraction at a temperature of 50°C, where extraction results at 50°C obtained a fatty acid profile of saturated fatty acids>mono-unsaturated fatty acids>polyunsaturated fatty acids, with significant levels of omega-3 fatty acids such as eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid.

Analysis of Curly Red Chili Farming at Farmer-Level in Kerinci Highland

Curly red chili (Capsicum annum L.) is a horticultural commodity with high economic value and a big role in domestic needs, export commodities, and the food industry. Chili production at Kerinci farmer level still needs to be increased due to low knowledge of chili cultivation technology, pest attacks, and the use of superior varieties. This research aims to determine cultivation technology and farming analysis of curly red chili in Kerinci Highlands. The research was carried out at the chili production center in Sungai Lintang Village, Kayu Aro Barat District, Kerinci Regency, from October to December 2022. Brief understanding of rural areas by meeting with village community leaders and chili producers followed by interviews with selected respondents using a questionnaire of 30 farmers consisting of three groups. Each group consists of 10 farmers based on the chili planting time in early 2022. Analysis of chili farming that uses plastic mulch with productivity of 8,860 kg/ha and without plastic mulch with 6,480 kg/ha. Economically, chili farming at the farmer level in Kerinci is profitable with an R/C ratio of 1.47 and a B/C ratio of 2.47 for respondents using plastic mulch and an R/C ratio of 0.83 and B/C ratio of 1.83 for respondents without plastic mulch.

The Yield Curve Control of the Central Bank of Japan and the Yen Price

Faced with the persistent turmoil in financial markets and the ongoing expansion of deflationary pressures in the economy, the Central Bank of Japan officially adopted the policy of controlling the yield curve of government bonds in September 2016. Once this policy was released, it caused a wide range of heated discussions, and many scholars put forward their views on the specific connotation of this policy. It forms critical help in distinguishing the yield curve control policy in the United States. Meanwhile, this policy not only led to a rapid depreciation of the Japanese currency but also significantly impacted various aspects, such as Japan's commodity exports, government debt burden, private sector consumption and expansion scale, and central bank independence. This paper further explores the correlation between the yield curve control policy and the yen price, concluding that there is a significant negative correlation between the two variables through empirical analysis. The yield curve control policy implemented by the Bank of Japan also provides valuable insights for China in formulating its monetary policy. It highlights the importance of exploring an interest rate decision-making model tailored to the country's specific circumstances, which can better promote China's economic development and achieve high-quality economic growth.

INDONESIA'S POLICY OF PALM OIL EXPORTS BANNED IN THE CURRENT WORLD ENERGY CRISIS

This paper aims to determine the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the ban on exports of palm oil commodities, and the energy crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war on the Indonesian and world economies. The research was conducted because it wanted to know the impact of the policies carried out by the Indonesian government as the largest producer of palm oil in the world and whether it produced a spillover effect on the economy. The objective is to examine the policies set by the government, namely tariff or non-tariff barriers, and their impact on trade. The Indonesian government implemented a policy banning palm oil exports from reducing the sharply rising local palm oil prices and meeting domestic demand. The policy was implemented in March 2022 and required further research to analyze its impact. This study used the GTAP database analysis tool in 2011. This study includes shocks in tariff and non-tariff barriers on palm oil commodities. The shock that was included to represent the energy crisis was a ban on exports and imports to Russia and a ban on food exports in Ukraine. The study results using the GTAP analysis tool, namely the determination of the export ban on palm oil commodities, had a positive impact, namely reducing the price of domestic palm oil, but the negative impact was the level of output, and the number of workers fell. Increasing export tariffs is not effective and increases domestic palm oil prices. Government policies that are carried out must ensure that domestic palm oil has stocks that meet consumption at affordable prices. The government must implement policies that protect consumers and producers of palm oil. Policies that the government can carry out are mitigating safety nets and distributing aid directly to affected society.

Exploration of challenges and readiness MSMEs coffee business in the age of global trade based on carbon footprint (Ecolabel)

Indonesia’s export-oriented products and industries face technological barriers, especially agriculture, and plantations, to declare eco-label products in world trade competition. In fact, exports from this sector are one of the contributing factors to Indonesia’s GDP. The third rank of Indonesia’s mainstay agricultural and plantation sector export commodities is coffee. This study aims to comprehensively determine the challenges and readiness of coffee micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Java in the global trade era based on carbon footprint. This study uses in-depth interviews with 7 coffee MSME actors in West and East Java. We use SWOT analysis to explore strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The results showed that only 4 out of 7 coffee MSME actors knew about carbon footprint. This is due to limited knowledge of carbon reduction, carbon tax, and the advantage of the certification. Carbon footprint certification is considered an investment. Even though the certification process will be costly, meticulous, and lengthy, it can be an opportunity for the domestic products to be competitive with global products. The government must really know which business sectors will be subject to carbon tax so that they are right on target. They must consolidate with all related parties such as business owners, farmers, academics, and associations.

Alaban wood (Vitex pinnata) as a promising feedstock in the community-scale charcoal industry: A case study of KPHP Kendilo, Indonesia

Indonesian forest production management unit, also called KPHP, have initiated various programs to develop the prosperity of local societies around forest area, including their independence in the energy sector. Charcoal is an ancient green energy which is still traditionally produced by those people for daily usage. Currently, the demand of charcoal for many modern industries in the world has been growing, showing its high potential as future export commodities since Indonesia has a richness in the forest biomass resources for charcoal feedstock. Therefore, we conducted a suitability analysis of the community-scale charcoal production at KPHP Kendilo, one of the forest management units located in East Kalimantan province. Alaban wood (Vitex pinnata) is considered the most potential biomass in this area, indicating its high availability in nature for charcoal feedstok. It was converted by a drum kiln technique using ratio of fuel wood and raw material at 1 : 2 (dry matter) for approximately 4 hours. It showed that the plant having diameter of above 15 cm possessed the highest charcoal yield (6.83 ton/ha), with appropriate energy properties (7,001 kcal/kg). Finally, this study points out the promising of Alaban wood in KPHP Kendilo for charcoal production in the rural communities.

The Prospects of Lampung's Pepper Export to the Global Market: An Analysis Using the ARIMA Model

Pepper is one of Lampung's leading export commodities. It can be seen from the contribution of Lampung Province's pepper, which accounted for 42 percent of Indonesia's overall pepper exports. However, pepper production and export volume in Lampung Province continue to decline annually. This study aims to analyze the prospect of Lampung’s pepper export to the international market for ten years, from 2023 - 2033. This research used ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) t model tool using E-views statistical software to forecast the trend of export of Lampung pepper to the International market. The data used was secondary data from the quarterly export of Lampung’s pepper from 2002 to 2022. The study suggested that Lampung's pepper exports are projected to decrease from 2023 to 2033, with a decrease of 10 percent each year. Finally, in 2033, Lampung's pepper exports to the international market only reached 998 tons.

The Ongoing Crisis in the Sugar Industry: The Implications of Legislation and a Need for Deregulation

The proposed research project is based on a multidisciplinary approach in order to analyse the law governing the sugar industry and the implications thereof. The proposed research project focuses on the current market operation within Pakistan, critically contrasting it with the model implemented within different jurisdictions for effective market operation of the sugar industry. It highlights the inefficaciousness and longstanding practices of the market players, how these are supported by existing legal structures, and how these undermine competition. While the sugar industry is highly significant towards the economy of Pakistan and regardless of the so-called stringent legislative control, which have without a doubt failed, this study shall focus on unveiling the adverse implications of these rules and regulations and analyse a more viable model for an effective market operation.
 INTRODUCTION
 The sugar industry plays a crucial role in Pakistan’s economy, but government regulations have made it highly regulated, inefficient, and anti-competitive. This article explores the historical development of the sugar industry in Pakistan, focusing on the legislative framework that has shaped it up to 2021. It considers relevant laws, case law, and findings from the Sugar Inquiry Report (Sugar Inquiry Commission, 2020). To gain a comprehensive understanding, the study includes key informant interviews with stakeholders along the sugar supply chain and experts. These interviews assess the proposed reforms’ prudency, efficiency, and adequacy, aiming to determine their effectiveness and viability. Ultimately, the article will propose reforms tailored to Pakistan based on this research.
 PRE-PARTITION
 From the late 1800s to the early 1930s, the sugar industry in the Dutch East Indies, particularly on the island of Java, went through significant developments. Initially, sugar was a crucial export commodity for the colony, primarily directed towards European markets. However, in the 1880s, the Java-based sugar factories lost contact with these markets. Around the turn of the 20th century, the United States became a major recipient of Java’s sugar exports due to disruptions in Caribbean sugar supplies caused by the Cuban revolution and the Spanish-American war. However, by the early 1910s, Java shifted its focus to Asian markets, particularly the Indian Subcontinent, China, and Japan (Knight, 2010). 
 The development and maintenance of the sugar industry became crucial for the Indian subcontinent, and historical records indicate that India had a well-established sugar industry dating back centuries. Around the same time, with the decline of indigo cultivation in North Bihar and increased emphasis on cane production, modern sugar factories began to emerge.

Income inequality and export‐oriented commercialization in colonial Africa: Evidence from six countries

AbstractLimited knowledge of African historical inequality trajectories hampers our understanding of inequality outcomes today and leads to a major omission in debates about global inequality. Economies in colonial Africa were characterized by a process of export‐oriented commercialization. We hypothesize that this process itself, the capital intensity of the commodities produced, and the relative importance of European and Asian expatriates and settlers in the economy shaped heterogeneous inequality outcomes. We evaluate these hypotheses using 33 social tables from six predominately agricultural countries between 1914 and 1969. Social tables capture income across the full distribution, aggregated in classes. We assess and improve the commensurability of the different social tables. We then apply different inequality metrics, and find that Gini and Theil coefficients and Inequality Extraction Ratios rose over time. Gini coefficients moved in conjunction with the real value of commodity exports per capita. Using Theil decompositions, we observe a trade‐off between inequality among African classes on the one hand, and among non‐Africans and between races on the other. Whenever present, non‐Africans captured a large share of the export profits. Inequality patterns towards the end of the period suggest that capital‐intensive commodities were associated with higher levels of inequality in the agricultural sector.

Australian energy policy decisions in the wake of the 2022 energy crisis

Large economies are trying to shift their energy procurement from fossil dependence to renewable sources. In 2022 global commodity markets saw rapid price increases due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic barriers on Russian commodity exports. Australia was not immune to these commodity price rises. Throughout the last decade Australia has become increasingly exposed to global energy prices through its commodity exports of LNG and thermal coal. Over this same decade Australia also experienced energy and climate policy discontinuity, and therefore policy uncertainty. These factors combined with a continued reliance on aging thermal plant resulted in a perfect storm of events which saw Australian electricity and gas prices reach all-time highs across the east-coast. The outcome resulted in long-term government intervention in markets to stabilise prices. This article will argue domestic factors helped fuel record high electricity and gas prices but have since subsided or are in the process of being mitigated. As a result, policymakers should reconsider how interaction occurs with electricity and gas markets to stabilise prices. Another decade of energy and climate policy discontinuity would not be a helpful development for the desired energy transition. A survey of market participants exemplifies concern that this outcome is materialising.

Exponential Smoothing State Space Innovation Model for Forecasting Export Commodity Price Index in Nigeria

Exponential Smoothing State Space Innovation Model for Forecasting Export Commodity Price Index in Nigeria

Optimization of virtual water flows in agriculture by changing cropping patterns using an integrated approach

Utilizing available water resources efficiently is crucial to address both our present and future requirements and plays a vital role in safeguarding food security. This current investigation deals with assessment and optimizing water footprint (WF) and virtual water flow (VWF) for primary crops in Banas River Basin (BRB) using AquaCrop model with local datasets and district-level estimates. VWF in the basins were estimated by multiplying the WF of crops with the amount exported/imported, which is determined based on the difference between production and consumption in the basin. The possibility of changing the cropping patterns was evaluated for the potential reduction of the blue WF. Annual WF from primary crops in the basin amounts to 19,255 MCM/yr (70 % green, 21 % blue and 10 % grey WF, respectively). Banas basin is a net exporter of agriculture commodities with nearly 7391 MCM/yr of water flowing out of the basin due to agricultural exports of which approximately 265 MCM/yr is virtual blue water outflow. Crops having low economic water productivity of blue water are being grown in vast areas resulting in a high blue WF. The optimizing the cropping pattern can result in a 5–42 % lower blue water footprint with 11–39 % higher economic output under different scenarios with and without considering the consumption needs. Changing the cropping pattern and making trade plan to optimize the crop import/exports can be viable option for tackling the blue water scarcity issues in the basin. WF can be managed sustainably by improving water resource allocation for better economic, social, and environmental productivity and going for less aggressive agricultural production.

Inflation and Energy Crisis under Ukraine Conflict

The Western energy embargo and sanctions against Russia have disrupted the supply and demand structure of the global energy market, which has had a significant impact on it. The process of reorganizing the new market structure will be fraught with uncertainty. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has disrupted supplies of basic goods worldwide, driven up prices, slowed trade, and reduced incomes. The hardest hurt are developing nations that rely heavily on imported food and energy. Although certain commodity exporters could be able to increase exports to take advantage of rising global prices, they could see a reorganization of their trade patterns, which would lead to a lesser integration into global value chains. Consumers around the world are suffering, with the most negative effects being seen by the most disadvantaged. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the world's economic order has been changed, this paper analyzes the economic indicators of the United States, Europe, and developing countries, describes the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the energy crisis, inflation, and national industry, and people's living standards caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the United States, Europe, and developing countries, and the geo-strategic competition of major countries politicizes and securitizes energy trade, resulting in disorder in the global energy market and threatening global economic stability.

The potential of shallot skin powder and actinomycetes metabolites as antimicrobe and antibiofilm in the treatment of eel (Anguilla bicolor bicolor) infected with Aeromonas hydrophila

BackgroundEel (Anguilla bicolor bicolor) is an Indonesian export commodity. However, it is facing a problem related to Aeromonas hydrophila, which can cause motile aeromonas septicemia (MAS) and produce biofilm formation. Problem with antibiotic resistance challenges the need of an alternative treatment. Therefore, it is important to explore a solution to treat infection and the biofilm formed by A. hydrophila.ObjectivesIn this study, we used shallot skin powder and actinomycetes metabolite 20 PM as antimicrobe and antibiofilm to treated eels infected with A. hydrophila.ResultsShallot skin powder (6.25 g 100 g−1 feed) and Actinomycetes 20 PM metabolite (2 mL 100 g−1 feed) were found to be effective as antimicrobe and antibiofilm agent in treating eels infected with A. hydrophila. Eel treated with antibiotic, shallot skin powder, and actinomycetes metabolite had 80%, 66%, and 73% survival rates, respectively. Other indicators such as red blood cell count, hemoglobin, and hematocrit were increased, but white blood cell count and phagocytic activity were dropped. Biofilm destruction were analyzed using scanning electron microscopy to determined antibiofilm activity of actinomycetes metabolite against biofilm of A. Hydrophila.ConclusionsShallot skin powder and actinomycetes metabolite were potential to treat infection of A. hydrophila in eel as an alternative treatment to antibiotics.