Explanatory Value Research Articles

Too Objective for Culpability?

To help explain in a principled way why criminal law doctrine tends to abstract away from motives and other individualized circumstances, I have defended an insufficient regard theory of criminal culpability that is more objective in certain respects than other views in the same camp. This has led Alec Walen to object that my view is too objective to be an account of culpability and is better understood as a theory of criminal wrongs. This challenge is important not least because it requires getting clearer about what wrongness and culpability are and what roles they play on a legal moralist picture of the criminal law. Here, I argue that Walen’s objection is mistaken. Once we get clearer on what distinguishes wrongness and culpability, it becomes clear that my account is best seen as a theory of culpability. This is so even though it calculates degrees of culpability in a more objective way than other insufficient regard views. Besides just defending my account from Walen’s objection, this paper aims to make a positive contribution by developing a more sophisticated version of the Manifestation Account I proposed earlier. To do this, I focus on the main area of criminal law doctrine where culpability comes apart from wrongness – namely, excuse cases. My earlier Manifestation Account is implausible – or at least limited – because it has nothing distinctive to say about how to determine the culpability of excused misconduct. Accordingly, the theory would be, if not outright false, at best incompatible with the orthodox view in criminal law theory, which takes excuses to accept wrongdoing but deny culpability. To solve this problem and enhance the Manifestation Account’s explanatory value, I show how to extend the theory to account for the culpability of wrongs where a putatively excusing condition is in play. This not only fills a gap in the Manifestation Account but has the further benefit of providing a unified reasons-based account of the main categories of misconduct in the criminal law, which shows what separates criminal wrongness from culpability both in justification cases and excuse cases. The hope is that this effort will shed light on the distinct roles of wrongness and culpability in legal moralist theories of the criminal law and provide a better understanding of degrees of culpability for criminal wrongs – not only when justifications are at issue, but also when excuses are involved.

Does Teachers’ Spirituality Make a Difference? The Explanatory Value of Spirituality and Religiosity for Teachers’ Professional Beliefs on Teaching and Learning

While it is often theoretically presumed that religious and spiritual beliefs are important determinants for teachers’ professional thinking and acting, there is only scarce empirical evidence of this. Using structural equation modeling to explain professional beliefs about teaching and learning among N = 1,441 German schoolteachers, our study yielded virtually no explanatory value for religiosity, but certainly one for non-transcendet spiritual beliefs as predictors. Our research results differ from findings in some studies from the U.S. that showed substantial correlations between teachers’ religious and professional beliefs. Some possible reasons are reflected in the discussion section. Highlights Teachers’ religiosity and spirituality are weakly related to professional beliefs. “Connectedness with oneself” explains the sense of professional self-efficacy. “Connectedness with others” explains an idealistic self-concept. “Connectedness with others” explains student-centered attitudes. Control variables/factors explain teachers’ professional beliefs to some extent.

Empire, Hegemony, Hyperpower?

Empire and Hegemony are among the crucial notions of science of international relations. Many scholars were investigating those concepts, and attempted to define them and estimate whether they retain explanatory value in contemporary situations of accelerated evolution of international system. Within the system governed by anarchy, those two prepositions were considered partial resolution to destructive tendencies generated within the international environment. Albeit those resolutions, it seems similar, their application required different conditions in order to become effective. Every mentioned above system is a complex and adequate answer to challenge posed by different set of features and variables generated by particular iteration of international system. The question remains: preconditions to occurrence of which system will be generated by late-Westphalian and subsequent generation of international environment? Contemporary iteration projects many individual characteristics, with regard to complexity, globalization and historical acceleration. One of the possible solutions to this issue is the recently introduced concept of Hyperpower, which could be positioned as a system in between those mentioned above. However its creation embraces new quality of international relations not yet encountered during course of history. This paper will be dedicated to the investigation of this concept and its usefulness for scientific analysis of contemporary international relations. Hyperpower embraces geopolitics and transnational in equal measures. It is product of a so-called “virtualization of state” and encompasses tools for effective interaction in both spheres of international environment. It is a generally much more passive system than mentioned above. Its activation consumes astounding amount of resources. Therefore, its primary application is in most cases passive, strictly limited to the shaping of the perception of remaining elements of international system. Keywords: Hyperpower, Hegemony, Empire, late-Westphalian international environment

Analysis of FRAME data (A-FRAME): An analytic approach to assess the impact of adaptations on health services interventions and evaluations.

Tracking adaptations during implementation can help assess and interpret outcomes. The framework for reporting adaptations and modifications-expanded (FRAME) provides a structured approach to characterize adaptations. We applied the FRAME across multiple health services projects, and developed an analytic approach to assess the impact of adaptations. Mixed methods analysis of research diaries from seven quality improvement (QI) and research projects during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the FRAME as a codebook, discrete adaptations were described and categorized. We then conducted a three-step analysis plan: (1) calculated the frequency of adaptations by FRAME categories across projects; (2) qualitatively assessed the impact of adaptations on project goals; and (3) qualitatively assessed relationships between adaptations within projects to thematically consolidate adaptations to generate more explanatory value on how adaptations influenced intervention progress and outcomes. Between March and July 2020, 42 adaptations were identified across seven health services projects. The majority of adaptations related to training or evaluation (52.4%) with the goal of maintaining the feasibility (66.7%) of executing projects during the pandemic. Five FRAME constructs offered the most explanatory benefit to assess the impact of adaptations on program and evaluation goals, providing the basis for creating an analytic approach dubbed the "A-FRAME," analysis of FRAME data. Using the A-FRAME, the 42 adaptations were consolidated into 17 succinct adaptations. Two QI projects discontinued altogether. Intervention adaptations related to staffing, training, or delivery, while evaluation adaptations included design, recruitment, and data collection adjustments. By sifting qualitative data about adaptations into the A-FRAME, implementers and researchers can succinctly describe how adaptations affect interventions and their evaluations. The simple and concise presentation of information using the A-FRAME matrix can help implementers and evaluators account for the influence of adaptations on program outcomes.

COVID-19 vaccination willingness in peri-urban Tanzanian communities: Towards contextualising and moving beyond the individual perspective

With only 5.1% of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Tanzania has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the world and after two years of changing policies regarding the disease, the country struggles to get its vaccination campaign on the rails. In this study, we identify the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination willingness in two villages of the Mvomero district in Eastern Tanzania. Based on survey data, we performed univariate analyses to assess differences in vaccination intention for various social groups, and built a four-dimensional multivariate ordered logistic regression model that comprises respondents' personal and socioeconomic characteristics, the channels through which they get their information, their attitudes and perceptions towards COVID-19, and their social network embeddedness. Only 37.0% of the respondents indicated that they would be willing to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Vaccination willingness differed significantly according to gender, age, educational attainment and religion; with men, the elderly, people with post-secondary education and Catholics and Muslims more likely to accept a vaccine. Predictors of vaccination willingness were gender, age, social media and informal contacts as information sources, perceived effectiveness of the vaccine and of alternative medicine, fear of side effects, a general dislike of vaccines, and the proportion of vaccinated people and the highest value of trust in international organisations in one’s network. Although people’s attitudes and perceptions have the largest share of the explanatory value, our model shows that all four of our model’s building blocks were imperative in explaining vaccination willingness. Therefore, our paper presents a compelling case for the inclusion of respondents' social embeddedness as a common dimension for exploratory models of vaccination willingness.

High Homocysteine Levels Are Associated with Cognitive Impairment in Patients Who Recovered from COVID-19 in the Long Term.

In this study, we measured the levels of depression and cognition in people recovering from COVID-19. Moreover, we aimed to investigate the relationship between depression and cognition levels by measuring homocysteine concentrations. It included 62 people recovering from COVID-19 (at least 3 months after positive RT-PCR) and 64 people without COVID-19 (control group). At first, the homocysteine levels of participants were measured. Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) were performed to collect data. Homocysteine levels of the group recovering from COVID-19 (x- = 19.065 µmol/L) were higher than the control group (x- = 11.313 µmol/L). There was no significant difference between the groups for BDI scores. The MoCA scores of the group recovering from COVID-19 (x- = 20.774) were lower than the control group (x- = 24.297). There was a negative high (r = -0.705, p < 0.001) correlation between homocysteine levels and MoCA scores. Linear regression analysis is shown to be significant, and the MoCA explanatory value of the variables in the model is 58.6% (p < 0.0001). A 1 µmol/L observed increase in homocysteine level constituted a risk for a 0.765-point decrease in MOCA scores. In patients recovering from COVID-19, early interventions to high homocysteine levels may prevent cognitive impairments that may persist in the long term.

Mapping Fractional Vegetation Coverage across Wetland Classes of Sub-Arctic Peatlands Using Combined Partial Least Squares Regression and Multiple Endmember Spectral Unmixing

Vegetation communities play a key role in governing the atmospheric-terrestrial fluxes of water, carbon, nutrients, and energy. The expanse and heterogeneity of vegetation in sub-arctic peatland systems makes monitoring change at meaningful spatial resolutions and extents challenging. We use a field-collected spectral endmember reference library to unmix hyperspectral imagery and map vegetation coverage at the level of plant functional type (PFT), across three wetland sites in sub-arctic Alaska. This study explores the optimization and parametrization of multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA) models to estimate coverage of PFTs across wetland classes. We use partial least squares regression (PLSR) to identify a parsimonious set of critical bands for unmixing and compare the reference and modeled coverage. Unmixing, using a full set of 110-bands and a smaller set of 4-bands, results in maps that effectively discriminate between PFTs, indicating a small investment in fieldwork results in maps mirroring the true ground cover. Both sets of spectral bands differentiate between PFTs, but the 4-band unmixing library results in more accurate predictive mapping with lower computational cost. Reducing the unmixing reference dataset by constraining the PFT endmembers to those identified in the field-site produces only a small advantage for mapping, suggesting extensive fieldwork may not be necessary for MESMA to have a high explanatory value in these remote environments.

Chopin, Pianos and East Asian Modernity

For music to have an identity, it seems, it must belong to someone. I will argue that in the twenty-first century Chopin no longer belongs to Europe. Can we really speak of ‘Chopin reception’ in East Asia today, given that he now belongs to these cultures too? Already in the early twentieth century, the piano emerged as a potent symbol of modernity in East Asia, and today the success of East Asian pianists in the International Chopin Competition has become a matter of the greatest national pride for relevant nations. In this paper I will ask if socio-political modernities in East Asia, and the cultural modernisms that followed them and responded to them, are distinguishable from those of ‘the West’. Which are the common factors, and which the unique, bearing in mind that modernists of both East and West cultivated and relished temporal distance (now vs then), as well as spatial distance (here vs there)? In addressing cultural encounters between East and West, I heed Jürgen Osterhammel’s caution against prematurity in the identification of dichotomous discourses. I also invoke the theoretical concept of ‘cultural lag’, a concept of some vintage, but one that can have explanatory value when we consider the counterpoints and synergies generated between science, politics and culture in both East and West. In reflecting on Chopin in East Asia, I contextualise cultural transfer in several ways. These include aesthetic responses to collective trauma, not least through the establishment of a tabula rasa, or alternatively through a mode of (depthless) imitation that celebrates what Susan Sontag called ‘sensuous surface’. They also include a surrender to mechanism, and a tendency to fetishise or iconise cultural figures. All of these are arguably symptomatic of East Asian modernisms.

Employment Outcomes for People With Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Theory Mapping of the Evidence

Background:People with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are three to four times less largely to be with employment compared to neurotypical others. Theory based studies may provide helpful indicators for the design and implementation of employment supports for people with ASD.Objective:This critical review examined the extent of the evidence for theory in studies on employment outcomes for people with ASD and taking into account social inequality. For the evidence, 35 studies were selected for review if they were published in the period 2000–2016 and assessed for the association between work participation with ASD applying descriptive survey or quasi-experimental design.Methods:Studies were examined for use of any theory, including four predetermined theory types: social liminality, psychosocial, behavioral, and structural-infrastructural. They were also content-analyzed to determine if they cited any evidence of social inequality influences on employment outcomes with ASD.Findings:Results indicated that none of the studies explicitly applied and tested a theory on work participation with ASD. Rather, the majority of the studies were implicitly framed on predominantly behavioral type theory with minor elements of workplace psychosocial support theory-oriented interventions. Regard of structural-infrastructural type theory addressing social inequality is incidentally addressed by a few of the studies (n= 3) that examined family income status influences.Conclusion:In conclusion, extant studies on the association between employment outcomes and ASD are seriously limited in their explanatory value by a lack of theoretical grounding. They also neglect influences of antecedent social inequality in employment outcomes with ASD. Future studies should apply specific theory to questions on employment outcomes with ASD to provide usable evidence to inform employment support policy instruments and interventions for people with ASD.

Consciousness, Memory, and the Human Self: Commentary on "Consciousness as a Memory System" by Budson et al (2022).

Philosophical theories have attempted to shed light on the intricate relationships between consciousness and memory since long before this became a major theme in psychology and neuroscience. In the December 2022 issue of Cognitive and Behavioral Neurology , Budson, Richman, and Kensinger (2022) introduced a comprehensive theoretical framework pertaining to the origins of consciousness in relation to the memory system, its implications on our real-time perception of the world, and the neuroanatomical correlates underlying these phenomena. Throughout their paper, Budson et al (2022) focus on their theory's explanatory value regarding several clinical syndromes and experimental findings. In this commentary, we first summarize the theory presented by Budson and colleagues (2022). Then, we suggest a complementary approach of studying the relationships between consciousness and memory through the concept of the human self and its protracted representation through time (so-called mental time travel). Finally, we elaborate on Budson and colleagues' (2022) neuroanatomical explanation to their theory and suggest that adding the concepts of brain networks and cortical gradients may contribute to their theory's interpretability.

Do children with ADHD symptoms become socially isolated? Longitudinal within-person associations in a nationally-representative cohort

IntroductionSocial isolation in childhood can be detrimental to physical and mental health. Children with neurodevelopmental disorders, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), may be particularly at risk for becoming socially isolated. Similarly, isolated children have limited opportunities to observe, model, and learn age-appropriate interpersonal interactions with other children which could increase ADHD behaviours.ObjectivesThis study examined longitudinal associations between ADHD symptoms and social isolation across childhood. We tested the direction of this association across time, while accounting for pre-existing characteristics, and assessed whether this association varied by ADHD presentation, informant, sex, and socioeconomic status.MethodsParticipants included 2,232 children from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. ADHD symptoms and social isolation were measured at ages 5, 7, 10, and 12. We used random-intercept cross-lagged panel models to assess the directionality of the association across childhood.ResultsChildren with increased ADHD symptoms were consistently at increased risk of becoming socially isolated later in childhood, over and above stable characteristics (β=0.05-0.08). These longitudinal associations were not bidirectional; isolated children were not at risk of worsening ADHD symptoms later on. Children with a hyperactive ADHD presentation were more likely to become isolated, compared to an inattentive presentation. This was evident in the school setting, as observed by teachers, but not by mothers at home.ConclusionsOur findings highlight the importance of enhancing peer social support and inclusion for children with ADHD, particularly in school settings. We add explanatory value over and above traditional longitudinal methods as our results represent how individual children change over time, relative to their own pre-existing characteristics.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

On the Role of Beliefs and Trust for the Intention to Use Service Robots: An Integrated Trustworthiness Beliefs Model for Robot Acceptance

With the increasing abilities of robots, the prediction of user decisions needs to go beyond the usability perspective, for example, by integrating distinctive beliefs and trust. In an online study (N = 400), first, the relationship between general trust in service robots and trust in a specific robot was investigated, supporting the role of general trust as a starting point for trust formation. On this basis, it was explored—both for general acceptance of service robots and acceptance of a specific robot—if technology acceptance models can be meaningfully complemented by specific beliefs from the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and trust literature to enhance understanding of robot adoption. First, models integrating all belief groups were fitted, providing essential variance predictions at both levels (general and specific) and a mediation of beliefs via trust to the intention to use. The omission of the performance expectancy and reliability belief was compensated for by more distinctive beliefs. In the final model (TB-RAM), effort expectancy and competence predicted trust at the general level. For a specific robot, competence and social influence predicted trust. Moreover, the effect of social influence on trust was moderated by the robot's application area (public > private), supporting situation-specific belief relevance in robot adoption. Taken together, in line with the TPB, these findings support a mediation cascade from beliefs via trust to the intention to use. Furthermore, an incorporation of distinctive instead of broad beliefs is promising for increasing the explanatory and practical value of acceptance modeling.

Do Children With Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms Become Socially Isolated? Longitudinal Within-Person Associations in a Nationally Representative Cohort

This study examined longitudinal associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and social isolation across childhood. The study tested the direction of this association across time, while accounting for preexisting characteristics, and assessed whether this association varied by ADHD presentation, informant, sex, and socioeconomic status. Participants included 2,232 children from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. ADHD symptoms and social isolation were measured at ages 5, 7, 10, and 12. Random-intercept cross-lagged panel models were used to assess the directionality of the association across childhood. Children with increased ADHD symptoms were consistently at increased risk of becoming socially isolated later in childhood, over and above stable characteristics (β= .05-.08). These longitudinal associations were not bidirectional; isolated children were not at risk of worsening ADHD symptoms later on. Children with hyperactive ADHD presentation were more likely to become isolated, compared with inattentive presentation. This was evident in the school setting, as observed by teachers, but not by mothers at home. The study findings highlight the importance of enhancing peer social support and inclusion for children with ADHD, particularly in school settings. This study adds explanatory value beyond traditional longitudinal methods, as the results represent how individual children change over time, relative to their own preexisting characteristics. We worked to ensure sex and gender balance in the recruitment of human participants. We worked to ensure that the study questionnaires were prepared in an inclusive way. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as a member of one or more historically underrepresented sexual and/or gender groups in science. We actively worked to promote sex and gender balance in our author group. The author list of this paper includes contributors from the location and/or community where the research was conducted who participated in the data collection, design, analysis, and/or interpretation of the work.

Seasonal and Spatial Distribution of Phosphorus Fractions in Surface Sediments of the Southern Caspian Sea

This study assesses seasonal fluctuations, spatial distribution and fractions of phosphorus (P) in the surface sediment layer of the southern Caspian Sea. Seasonal fluctuations were insignificant (p-value > 0.05) relative to the mean total P (TP) concentrations. Still, the highest levels were in autumn samples (1555 mg kg−1), followed by winter (1405 mg kg−1), spring (1378 mg kg−1), and summer (1130 mg kg−1). These minor temporal fluctuations in P concentrations are explained by seasonal differences in runoff amount and intensity of rivers discharging into the Caspian sea and thereby their sediment loading and physicochemical characteristics. The large riverine influx has led to TP contamination hotspots in the river deltas of Anzali wetland, Babolrood, and Sefidrud, where high loadings of suspended particles are discharged into the sea. The spatial distribution of TP is thus site-specific and uneven. The main P fraction was calcium-bound P (CaP), reflecting the phosphate (PO43−) strong affinity for, and association with, Ca-bearing minerals. Only a minor fraction of P was determined as loosely bound P (LP). The fraction of the mud size particles was the main explanatory factor for the spatial distribution of overall low levels of non-residual (or bioavailable) P forms (i.e., LP and iron- and aluminum- bound P: FeP and AlP, respectively) during spring and summer, while the sand fraction had strongest explanatory value for the distribution of residual (non-bioavailable) P form (CaP) during autumn and winter. This study demonstrates that P bioavailability in sediments is mainly governed by the physicochemical characteristics of the sediment material, which again is steered by seawater chemistry. A low content of bioavailable P fractions could therefore be explained by the relatively low content of fine-grained (< 63 µm, i.e., mud) particles in sediments of the southern Caspian Sea.

A multi-faceted role of dual-state dopamine signaling in working memory, attentional control, and intelligence.

Genetic evidence strongly suggests that individual differences in intelligence will not be reducible to a single dominant cause. However, some of those variations/changes may be traced to tractable, cohesive mechanisms. One such mechanism may be the balance of dopamine D1 (D1R) and D2 (D2R) receptors, which regulate intrinsic currents and synaptic transmission in frontal cortical regions. Here, we review evidence from human, animal, and computational studies that suggest that this balance (in density, activity state, and/or availability) is critical to the implementation of executive functions such as attention and working memory, both of which are principal contributors to variations in intelligence. D1 receptors dominate neural responding during stable periods of short-term memory maintenance (requiring attentional focus), while D2 receptors play a more specific role during periods of instability such as changing environmental or memory states (requiring attentional disengagement). Here we bridge these observations with known properties of human intelligence. Starting from theories of intelligence that place executive functions (e.g., working memory and attentional control) at its center, we propose that dual-state dopamine signaling might be a causal contributor to at least some of the variation in intelligence across individuals and its change by experiences/training. Although it is unlikely that such a mechanism can account for more than a modest portion of the total variance in intelligence, our proposal is consistent with an array of available evidence and has a high degree of explanatory value. We suggest future directions and specific empirical tests that can further elucidate these relationships.

Comparison of Person-Centered and Cumulative Risk Approaches in Explaining the Relationship Between Adverse Childhood Experiences and Behavioral and Emotional Problems.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) commonly co-occur, and researchers often estimate their impact using a cumulative risk approach. The person-centered approach offers another approach to operationalize the co-occurrence of ACEs. This study aims to estimate latent classes of ACEs in a sample of U.K. children, examine their relationship with emotional and behavioral problems, and compare the explanatory value of the latent classes to cumulative risk scores. Data were collected among a general population sample of British 10-year-old children extracted from the U.K. Household Longitudinal Study (N = 601). Seven items characterized ACEs, comprising parent-report physical discipline, emotional abuse, supervisory neglect, maternal psychological distress, child-report parental educational disinterest, bullying victimization, and adverse neighborhood. Outcome measures were derived from the self-report Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire including total difficulties, emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity, peer problems, and prosocial behavior. Latent class analysis resulted in a three-class solution: low ACEs, household challenges, and community challenges. Compared to the other classes, the community challenges class scored substantially worse on total difficulties, emotional symptoms, and peer subscales. The cumulative risk score was associated with all outcomes except prosocial behavior. Cumulative risk models accounted for a larger proportion of variance compared with the latent class models, except for peer problems which the person-centered model explained better. This study confirms that ACEs are associated with impairment in child functioning, and that both person-centered and cumulative risk approaches can capture this relationship well. Specifically, the person-centered approach demonstrated how co-occurring risk factors in the community challenges class produced particularly poor internalizing outcomes.

Panarchies of transformation and resilience: Delineating systemic change in the society, economy, and ecology of Malakand

Malakand district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan has been going through phenomenal transformations in the socioeconomic, political, and ecological spheres since 1969. To understand these transformations, this article employs the theories of ‘panarchy’, ‘resilience’, and ‘adaptive cycles’, borrowed from the literature on socio-ecological systems and sustainability transformation. These studies see disruptive transformation as a systemic change in the economy and society in relation to ecology. The evidence for the article is derived from fieldwork conducted by the first author during his doctoral study in 2007–2008 and later visits in September to October 2012. The scales chosen for the analysis are local (Batkhela, Malakand) and regional (North West of Pakistan). The article argues that theoretical constructs such as panarchy, and adaptive cycles have explanatory value to delineate the socioeconomic, political, and ecological transformation, in the Malakand region, over a period. The article finds out that in Malakand, smaller actors at smaller scales enacted change at bigger scales of adaptive cycles. The change at a smaller scale due to the emergence of Batkhela Bazaar brought changes at bigger scales in the region. However, due to the interaction between multiple cycles at different scales, the system demonstrated some resilience to change, consequently forging a sustainable change in the region. Despite these explicit findings, we understand that interpreting theoretical constructs such as panarchies and adaptive cycles requires more rigorous research, particularly to develop a more precise connection between ecological change and socio-economic transformation in Malakand.

Engines of power: Electricity, AI, and general-purpose, military transformations

AbstractMajor theories of military innovation focus on relatively narrow technological developments, such as nuclear weapons or aircraft carriers. Arguably the most profound military implications of technological change, however, come from more fundamental advances arising from ‘general-purpose technologies’ (GPTs), such as the steam engine, electricity, and the computer. Building from scholarship on GPTs and economic growth, we argue that the effects of GPTs on military effectiveness are broad, delayed, and shaped by indirect productivity spillovers. We label this impact pathway a ‘general-purpose military transformation’ (GMT). Contrary to studies that predict GPTs will rapidly diffuse to militaries around the world and narrow gaps in capabilities, we show that GMTs can reinforce existing balances if leading militaries have stronger linkages to a robust industrial base in the GPT than challengers. Evidence from electricity's impact on military affairs, covering the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, supports our propositions about GMTs. To probe the explanatory value of our theory and account for alternative interpretations, we compare findings from the electricity case to the military impacts of submarine technology, a non-GPT that emerged in the same period. Finally, we apply our findings to contemporary debates about artificial intelligence, which could plausibly cause a profound GMT.

Predictors for Unplanned Readmissions within 18 Days after Hospital Discharge: a Retrospective Cohort Study.

Since the introduction of the reimbursement system based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) in Swiss hospitals in 2012, most readmissions occurring within 18 days and appertaining to the same major diagnostic category (MDC) are merged and thus often reimbursed to a lesser extent. While readmissions reflect increased distress for patients and their relatives, the causes are mainly patient-related and difficult to influence. However, it may be possible to identify cases at higher risk for readmission. Therefore, the aim of this study was to find predictors for early readmissions in the same MDC, to identify high-risk index hospitalizations and possibly prevent unnecessary readmissions. The data of all patients admitted to the Clinic of Internal Medicine at the University Hospital of Basel, Switzerland, hospitalized for longer than 24 hours during the pre-DRG period between October 2009 and September 2010 were retrospectively collected. Data were examined for predictors of unplanned readmission within 18 days under the same MDC ('relevant readmission') by means of logistic regression. 7479 patients (median age 67.8 years, 56% male) were admitted to the Clinic of Internal Medicine, with 232 patients (3.1%) being readmitted at least once. Logistic regression revealed male sex (p =0.035) and a high number of prescribed drugs at discharge (p <0.005) as patient-related predictors. The MDCs respiratory system, cardiovascular system, and gastrointestinal/hepatobiliary system were identified as high-risk categories (each p <0.005). Age and length of index hospital stay added no significant explanatory value to the regression model. Unplanned readmissions under the same MDC within 18 days were infrequent and not related to patients' age or length of hospital stay. Overall, multimorbid patients, and hospitalizations regarding the cardiovascular, respiratory, or gastrointestinal system appear to be most at risk and should therefore be specifically targeted in the prevention of early readmissions.

Bee visitation to flowers throughout New York City

As urbanization increases, it is important to understand how ecosystem services are provisioned in cities. In this study, we used four years of citizen science data to analyze bee visitation to flowers throughout the five boroughs of New York City. Volunteers monitored one of nine focal flower species for a maximum duration of 30 min, noting when a bee landed on the flower, counting up to a total of five bee landings. Five bees were observed in 63 % of the observations and bumble bees were the most commonly observed bee morphotype (49 % of all observations). The nine focal flowers varied in the rate of bee visitation and the types of bees that visited. Comparing different urban habitats where focal flowers were located, community gardens had the highest bee visitation rate, followed by parks, private gardens, and rooftops/terraces. When comparing the explanatory value of individual spatial scales from 50 m up to 1500 m, the 500 m buffer scale was found to be the most informative. The proportion of grass/shrub and tree canopy at the 500 m radius scale both affected bee visitation. The proportion of buildings at the 500 m scale also had a positive influence in one model suggesting that a heterogeneous urban landscape may provide benefits for bee activity. Overall, our results highlight that wild bees are active throughout many areas of New York City, likely providing variable, yet substantial, pollination services to wild and cultivated plants.