Explanatory Value Research Articles

Predictors for Unplanned Readmissions within 18 Days after Hospital Discharge: a Retrospective Cohort Study.

Since the introduction of the reimbursement system based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) in Swiss hospitals in 2012, most readmissions occurring within 18 days and appertaining to the same major diagnostic category (MDC) are merged and thus often reimbursed to a lesser extent. While readmissions reflect increased distress for patients and their relatives, the causes are mainly patient-related and difficult to influence. However, it may be possible to identify cases at higher risk for readmission. Therefore, the aim of this study was to find predictors for early readmissions in the same MDC, to identify high-risk index hospitalizations and possibly prevent unnecessary readmissions. The data of all patients admitted to the Clinic of Internal Medicine at the University Hospital of Basel, Switzerland, hospitalized for longer than 24 hours during the pre-DRG period between October 2009 and September 2010 were retrospectively collected. Data were examined for predictors of unplanned readmission within 18 days under the same MDC ('relevant readmission') by means of logistic regression. 7479 patients (median age 67.8 years, 56% male) were admitted to the Clinic of Internal Medicine, with 232 patients (3.1%) being readmitted at least once. Logistic regression revealed male sex (p =0.035) and a high number of prescribed drugs at discharge (p <0.005) as patient-related predictors. The MDCs respiratory system, cardiovascular system, and gastrointestinal/hepatobiliary system were identified as high-risk categories (each p <0.005). Age and length of index hospital stay added no significant explanatory value to the regression model. Unplanned readmissions under the same MDC within 18 days were infrequent and not related to patients' age or length of hospital stay. Overall, multimorbid patients, and hospitalizations regarding the cardiovascular, respiratory, or gastrointestinal system appear to be most at risk and should therefore be specifically targeted in the prevention of early readmissions.

Bee visitation to flowers throughout New York City

As urbanization increases, it is important to understand how ecosystem services are provisioned in cities. In this study, we used four years of citizen science data to analyze bee visitation to flowers throughout the five boroughs of New York City. Volunteers monitored one of nine focal flower species for a maximum duration of 30 min, noting when a bee landed on the flower, counting up to a total of five bee landings. Five bees were observed in 63 % of the observations and bumble bees were the most commonly observed bee morphotype (49 % of all observations). The nine focal flowers varied in the rate of bee visitation and the types of bees that visited. Comparing different urban habitats where focal flowers were located, community gardens had the highest bee visitation rate, followed by parks, private gardens, and rooftops/terraces. When comparing the explanatory value of individual spatial scales from 50 m up to 1500 m, the 500 m buffer scale was found to be the most informative. The proportion of grass/shrub and tree canopy at the 500 m radius scale both affected bee visitation. The proportion of buildings at the 500 m scale also had a positive influence in one model suggesting that a heterogeneous urban landscape may provide benefits for bee activity. Overall, our results highlight that wild bees are active throughout many areas of New York City, likely providing variable, yet substantial, pollination services to wild and cultivated plants.

Approximating the influence of external factors on the technical efficiency score of hospital care: evidence from the federal states of Germany

BackgroundA good health care system and, especially, the provision of efficient hospital care are the goals of national and regional health policies. However, the scope of general hospital care in the 16 federal states in Germany varies considerably from region to region. The objectives of this paper are to evaluate the technical efficiencies of all general hospitals of the 16 federal states for the period from 2015 to 2020, to find out the relation between the exogenous factors and score of efficiency, and also the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the results of the technical efficiency of hospital care in the German states.MethodsA two-step approach was used. First, an input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis model with constant returns to scale and variable returns to scale was applied for the 6-year period from 2015 to 2020. The calculation of technical efficiency according to the input-oriented DEA model contains the three components—total technical efficiency (TTE), pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). In the second stage, the influence of exogenous variables on the previously determined technical efficiency was evaluated by applying the tobit regression analysis.ResultsAlthough the level of average technical efficiency of about 90% is high, total technical efficiency deteriorated steadily from 2015 to 2020. Its lowest point at around 78%, was in the year 2020. The deterioration of the average technical efficiency is notably influenced by the lower results in the years 2019 and 2020. The decomposition of technical efficiency also revealed that the deterioration of overall average efficiency was influenced by both pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). Based on the tobit regression analysis performed, it was possible to conclude that the change in the efficiency score can be explained by the influence of exogenous factors only from 6.4% for overall efficiency and from 7.1% for scale efficiency.ConclusionsThe results of the analysis of the overall technical efficiency reveal that the aggregated data of all general hospitals of all 16 federal states show a steadily worsening total technical efficiency every year since 2015. Although, especially, the deterioration of the year 2020 with the occurrence of COVID-19 pandemic, contributes to a deteriorated efficiency average, the deterioration of the efficiency values, based on the analysis performed, is also observable between the years 2016 and 2019. Considering the output generated, for inefficient units and the relevant policy authorities in the hospital sector, it can be recommended that the number of beds and in particular the number of physicians, should be reduced as inputs. Based on this study, it is also recommended that decisions to increase the efficiency of general hospitals should be made with consideration of exogenous factors such as the change in the number of general hospitals or the population density in the respective state, as these had explanatory value in connection with the increase in efficiency values. Due to the wide variation in the size of the federal states, the recommendation is more appropriate for federal states with low population density.

Integrating Socioeconomic Biophysical and Institutional Factors for Evaluating Small-Scale Irrigation Schemes in Northern Ethiopia

This paper characterizes and compares three types of small-scale irrigation scheme practices in Northern Ethiopia. A multidisciplinary survey approach, collecting information on socioeconomic, biophysical, and institutional aspects of irrigation by the smallholder farmers, was used to investigate and compare aspects of land, water use, and crop productivity, including farmer income and livelihood sustainability. The study was conducted in the Zamra catchment, a sub-basin of the large Tekeze river basin and Nile basin tributary. Three common small-scale irrigation scheme types, i.e., traditional diversion, modern diversion, and dam (reservoir) based irrigation, were compared using four pilot survey areas. From the total of 618 farmer households in the study areas, 242 farmers were selected using stratified random sampling and participated in the survey and research. More than 100 input data were collected from the farmers related to the biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors affecting their work practice and livelihood. Focus group discussions were conducted with elders, the water users association committee, and women-headed households. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis were used for quantitative analysis. The result indicates a significant difference between the three irrigation schemes. One important conclusion of this study was that the explanatory value of a single factor (e.g., biophysical), as commonly done in irrigation research and assessment, was seldom sufficient to explain water use, crop yield, and farmer income. Institutional and/or socioeconomic drivers also played an important role in the entire farming practice, income generation, and livelihood of the farmers. This study highlighted the value-added of the multidisciplinary approach (socioeconomic, biophysical, and institutional) for the evaluation of small-scale irrigation practices and livelihood analysis of agricultural smallholders in climate-affected regions, such as the Northern Ethiopian highlands.

Characterising nationwide reasons for unplanned hospital readmission after colorectal cancer surgery.

Readmissions after colorectal cancer surgery are common, despite advancements in surgical care, and have a significant impact on both individual patients and overall healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to determine the 30-and 90 days readmission rate after colorectal cancer surgery, and to investigate the risk factors and clinical reasons for unplanned readmissions. A multicenter, population-based study including all patients discharged after index colorectal cancer resection from 2010 to 2020 in Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ) was completed. The Ministry of Health National Minimum Dataset was used. Rates of readmission at 30 days and 90 days were calculated. Mixed-effect logistic regression models were built to investigate factors associated with unplanned readmission. Reasons for readmission were described. Data were obtained on 16,885 patients. Unplanned 30-day and 90-day hospital readmission rates were 15.1% and 23.7% respectively. The main readmission risk factors were comorbidities, advanced disease, and postoperative complications. Hospital level variation was not present. Despite risk adjustment, R2 value of models was low (30 days: 4.3%, 90 days: 5.2%). The most common reasons for readmission were gastrointestinal causes (32.1%) and wound complications (14.4%). Rates of readmission did not improve over the 11 years study period (p= 0.876). Readmissions following colorectal resections in AoNZ are higher than other comparable healthcare systems and rates have remained constant over time. While patient comorbidities and postoperative complications are associated with readmission, the explanatory value of these variables is poor. To reduce unplanned readmissions, efforts should be focused on prevention and early detection of post-discharge complications.

Detecting patterns of post-fire pine regeneration in a Madrean Sky Island with field surveys and remote sensing

The American Southwest is experiencing drastic increases in aridity and wildfire incidence, triggering conversion of some frequent surface forests to non-forest. Extensive research has focused on these dynamics in regional ponderosa pine forests, but we know much less about Madrean pine-oak forests, which are broadly distributed from the Sierra Madre in Mexico to the Sky Island mountain ranges in the U.S. Increased fire incidence and drought in these forests are limiting pine regeneration and driving conversion of biodiverse forests to oak shrublands. We investigated regeneration patterns in Pinus engelmannii and P. leiophylla during severe drought 10 years after the Horseshoe Two Megafire in the Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona—a follow-up to an assessment five years post-fire. In long-term plots, we examined changes in pine seedling and resprout recruitment. Past research demonstrated that topography and fire severity influenced pine recruitment across environmental gradients. We investigated here whether Landsat-8 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration estimated by the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) added explanatory value to our understanding of these patterns. Conversion of Madrean pine-oak forest to oak shrublands continued 6–10 years post-fire. A dense, low oak canopy continued to coalesce in sites subject to severe fire. The importance of resprouts in P. leiophylla regeneration accelerated because these plants outgrew competing oak resprouts. Topography and fire severity (dNBR) were important predictors of 2021 patterns of pine recruitment. NDVI added explanatory value to these models, suggesting its potential in tracking forest dynamics. Evapotranspiration did not add value, likely because ECOSTRESS' larger pixel sizes and moving pixel locations created excessive subpixel heterogeneity in this highly dissected landscape. These models suggest that P. engelmannii is more drought sensitive, was more negatively affected by drought and fire, and is more at risk to shifts in climate and wildfires than P. leiophylla.

Parental provisioning drives brain size in birds

Large brains support numerous cognitive adaptations and therefore may appear to be highly beneficial. Nonetheless, the high energetic costs of brain tissue may have prevented the evolution of large brains in many species. This problem may also have a developmental dimension: juveniles, with their immature and therefore poorly performing brains, would face a major energetic hurdle if they were to pay for the construction of their own brain, especially in larger-brained species. Here, we explore the possible role of parental provisioning for the development and evolution of adult brain size in birds. A comparative analysis of 1,176 bird species shows that various measures of parental provisioning (precocial vs. altricial state at hatching, relative egg mass, time spent provisioning the young) strongly predict relative brain size across species. The parental provisioning hypothesis also provides an explanation for the well-documented but so far unexplained pattern that altricial birds have larger brains than precocial ones. We therefore conclude that the evolution of parental provisioning allowed species to overcome the seemingly insurmountable energetic constraint on growing large brains, which in turn enabled bird species to increase survival and population stability. Because including adult eco- and socio-cognitive predictors only marginally improved the explanatory value of our models, these findings also suggest that the traditionally assessed cognitive abilities largely support successful parental provisioning. Our results therefore indicate that the cognitive adaptations underlying successful parental provisioning also provide the behavioral flexibility facilitating reproductive success and survival.

Phytosociological analysis of the endemic Quercus faginea forests of the Iberian Peninsula

A phytosociological analysis of the Iberian Quercus faginea forests was carried out. For this purpose, 291 relevés were studied. A multivariate analysis consisting of a numerical classification based on the floristic composition of the relevés, was performed. The coherence and explanatory value of the current syntaxa are reviewed. As a result, the diversity of Iberian gall oak forests is resolved into 15 associations characterised according to their floristic, biogeographical, bioclimatic and synecological data supported by the statistical analyses. Thirteen have been described previously, and two new associations are proposed: Glandoro diffusae-Quercetum fagineae and Helianthemo mollis-Quercetum fagineae. A new combination, a lectotypification and a nomenclatural correction are also proposed. The Ios2 (ombrothermic index of the warmest bimonth of the summer quarter), Itc (compensated thermicity index) and Ic (continentality index) indexes proved to be fundamental to explain the syntaxonomic differentiation of the forests in the study. We consider that the differentiation and precision in the definition of clear syntaxonomic entities is vital to prioritize objectives in the conservation of these singular forests, and to ensure their adequate management in the context of the Habitats Directive.

Explanatory model for the Control of the risk of obesity in Mexican adolescents

Objective: estimate the explanatory value of the Obesity Risk Control model in adolescents with normal weight and overweight, guided by the Health Promotion Model.Methods: descriptive, cross-sectional, analytical study. The sample was calculated for a simple linear regression model that included age, sex, body mass index, personality traits, economic level, appetite traits, emotional eating, social support through social networks, family social support, self-regulation and locus of control. Spearman's Rho coefficient (p&lt;0,05) and linear regression (p&lt;0,001) were used.Results: 518 adolescents participated. The average age was 16,8 years (SD 0,9). 55,8 % were women. The average body mass index was 23,1 kg/m2 (SD 2,7). 61,9 % of female and 59,0 % of male adolescents were of normal weight. Physical activity was poor in 74,3 % and regular eating habits in 54,6 %. The model was made up of seven explanatory variables that were: sex, personality traits of kindness, responsibility, squeamish attitude, self-regulation in physical activity and eating habits, as well as internal locus of control, which explained 27 %, Conclusions: the Obesity Risk Control model was made up of seven variables that explained 27 % of the behavior, preserving the Health Promotion Model constructs. It is important to conduct research that incorporates commitment to an action plan and immediate competition preferences, as these are constructs that take precedence over health-promoting behavior and that, if present, favor or impact behavior

Confirmatory factor analysis of the BRIEF2 in a sample of youth with Down syndrome.

The factor structure of the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function, second edition (BRIEF2) has been widely examined in both typically developing children and specific clinical samples. Despite the frequent use of the BRIEF2 for measuring executive functioning in individuals with Down syndrome, no study has investigated the factorial validity or dimensionality of the BRIEF2 in this population. This study aimed to address this notable gap in the literature. Parents of 407 children and youth with Down syndrome aged 6-18years completed the BRIEF2 as part of different studies led by six sites. Three competing models proposed by previous studies were analysed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis: the theoretical structure of the BRIEF2 where the scales were constrained to load on three factors labelled as Cognitive, Behavioral, and Emotional Regulation, a two-factor correlated model with the merged Behavioral and Emotional regulation, and a single-factor model. The three-factor model provided a better fit than the one- and two-factor models, yet a large correlation was observed between Behavioural and Emotional regulation factors. The results provide meaningful explanatory value for the theoretical structure of the BRIEF2. However, the Behavioral and Emotional regulation factors might be less differentiated and the two-factor structure of the BRIEF2 may also make theoretical and empirical sense. Although more studies are needed to further examine the factor structure of the BRIEF2 in youth with Down syndrome, this investigation provides preliminary support for the interpretation of the three executive function index scores provided by the BRIEF2: Cognitive, Behavioral, and Emotional Regulation.

Coastal environmental and atmospheric data reduction in the Southern North Sea supporting ecological impact studies

Coastal climate impact studies make increasing use of multi-source and multi-dimensional atmospheric and environmental datasets to investigate relationships between climate signals and the ecological response. The large quantity of numerically simulated data may, however, include redundancy, multi-colinearity and excess information not relevant to the studied processes. In such cases techniques for feature extraction and identification of latent processes prove useful. Using dimensionality reduction techniques this research provides a statistical underpinning of variable selection to study the impacts of atmospheric processes on coastal chlorophyll-a concentrations, taking the Dutch Wadden Sea as case study. Dimension reduction techniques are applied to environmental data simulated by the Delft3D coastal water quality model, the HIRLAM numerical weather prediction model and the Euro-CORDEX climate modelling experiment. The dimension reduction techniques were selected for their ability to incorporate (1) spatial correlation via multi-way methods (2), temporal correlation through Dynamic Factor Analysis, and (3) functional variability using Functional Data Analysis. The data reduction potential and explanatory value of these methods are showcased and important atmospheric variables affecting the chlorophyll-a concentration are identified. Our results indicate room for dimensionality reduction in the atmospheric variables (2 principle components can explain the majority of variance instead of 7 variables), in the chlorophyll-a time series at different locations (two characteristic patterns can describe the 10 locations), and in the climate projection scenarios of solar radiation and air temperature variables (a single principle component function explains 77% of the variation for solar radiation and 57% of the variation for air temperature). It was also found that solar radiation followed by air temperature are the most important atmospheric variables related to coastal chlorophyll-a concentration, noting that regional differences exist, for instance the importance of air temperature is greater in the Eastern Dutch Wadden Sea at Dantziggat than in the Western Dutch Wadden Sea at Marsdiep Noord. Common trends and different regional system characteristics have also been identified through dynamic factor analysis between the deeper channels and the shallower intertidal zones, where the onset of spring blooms occurs earlier. The functional analysis of climate data showed clusters of atmospheric variables with similar functional features. Moreover, functional components of Euro-CORDEX climate scenarios have been identified for radiation and temperature variables, which provide information on the dominant mode (pattern) of variation and its uncertainties. The findings suggest that radiation and temperature projections of different Euro-CORDEX scenarios share similar characteristics and mainly differ in their amplitudes and seasonal patterns, offering opportunities to construct statistical models that do not assume independence between climate scenarios but instead borrow information (“borrow strength”) from the larger pool of climate scenarios. The presented results were used in follow up studies to construct a Bayesian stochastic generator to complement existing Euro-CORDEX climate change scenarios and to quantify climate change induced trends and uncertainties in phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics in the Dutch Wadden Sea.

Lysmeral Exposure in Children and Adolescences Participating in the German Environmental Survey (2012-2015): Integrating Sex/Gender into Analysis.

Comprehensive consideration of the biological and social diversities of sex and gender as well as their interdependencies is mostly missing in human biomonitoring (HBM) studies. Using the INGER sex/gender concept as theoretical background, we analyzed differences in exposure to lysmeral, a compound commonly found as a fragrance in cosmetics, personal care, and household products, in 2294 children and adolescents in Germany using decision tree, regression, and mediation analysis. The variables "sex assigned at birth" and "age", as well as well as use of personal care products and fabric conditioner proved to have the highest explanatory value. Mediating effects of behaviour associated with societal gender expectations were observed, as the use of cosmetics correlated highly with lysmeral metabolites concentrations in girls between 6 and 17 years, with the strongest effect in adolescents between 14 and 17 years old. In the youngest age group (3-5 years) boys showed higher concentration of the metabolite tert-butylbenzoic acid (TBBA) compared to girls of the same age but only if TBBA urine concentrations were normalized on creatinine. Our study offers the first retrospective sex/gender assessment of HBM data. It demonstrates the possibilities to rethink and broaden sex/gender analysis in existing HBM-studies and highlights the need for inclusion of new sex/gender concepts in the design of new studies.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY AND ITS LIMITS IN FORECASTING CHINESE BEHAVIOR TOWARDS THE US. THE CASE OF BALANCE OF POWER THEORY AND POWER TRANSITION THEORY

The literature on international relations pays special attention to China's rise since the "opening of China" in 1978, trying to identify and make predictions about China's behavioral patterns in its relationship with the United States and the current international system. Not surprisingly, international relations theories have been considered – from Morgenthau to present –, useful tools for predicting the evolution of major events in the international relations system. Using different theoretical lenses we can infer different outcomes regarding the complicated US-China relationship especially now, when the Chinese economic and social transformation seems to be accompanied by a revival of its own traditional concepts aimed at formulating a „Chinese school”, of international relations, characterized by the rejection of the realist assumptions that point almost every time to an imminent confrontation and placing both countries on even more profoundly contrasting positions. Therefore, starting from the balance of power theory and the power transition theory, this article aims to identify the extent to which the two theories prove explanatory and predictive value and can be useful tools for inferring China's behavior in the context of the current aggressive discourse that characterizes the relationship between the two countries. Also, this paper is aiming to analyze the limits we can identify in the existing literature on both theories.

Crisis management, new constitutionalism, and depoliticisation: recasting the politics of austerity in the US and UK, 2010–16

ABSTRACT Political economy literature has sought to explain the rapid shift from fiscal stimulus to austerity after the 2008 crisis. Influential contributions highlight the relative explanatory value of ideational or structural factors in contributing to post-crisis austerity. Drawing on Stephen Gill’s (1998) analysis of new constitutionalism and Peter Burnham’s (2001) understanding of depoliticisation, I contend that these frameworks offer a more useful lens to understand how post-2010 austerity in the US and UK was shaped by an enduring consensus on macroeconomic policy governance consolidating during the 1990s. Examining the role of fiscal mechanisms such as PAYGO in the US and the ‘Fiscal Golden Rules’ in the UK, and the operational independence conferred to central banks, I illustrate how Third Way governments institutionalised budgetary reforms and distanced macroeconomic policymaking from popular political contestation. Despite temporary lapses with this logic of fiscal restraint, as well as the rollout of historic monetary policies after 2008, I argue that these practices became deeply embedded within state institutions. Focusing on PAYGO in the US and the OBR in the UK, I show how policymakers redeployed policies and practices from the 1990s amidst the 2008 crisis to externalise responsibility for implementing austerity measures.

Evolution and attribution of the water yield coefficient in the Yiluo river basin

Our aim in this research was to detect historical and future water yield coefficient evolution and attribution. Based on the calibrated and validated water yield coefficient model in the Yiluo River Basin, the coefficient for the years 2000–2020 was simulated, along with the future projection for 2030–2050 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The spatio-temporal evolution of historical and future water yield coefficients was then analyzed. Moreover, the geographical detector model was used to detect the impacts of climate, land use, and terrain factors on the water yield coefficient. The results showed that the water yield coefficient increased by 8.53% from 2000 to 2020, with the coefficient of farmland increasing by 10.47% and that of forestland decreasing by 8.93%. The coefficient was highest under the SSP370 scenario and the lowest under the SSP585 scenario in projections for 2030–2050. Compared to 2000–2020, the coefficients of the two scenarios increased by 12.2% and 2.0%, respectively. Consequently, under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the coefficient of farmland increased by 13.2% and 2.7%, and that of the forestland decreased by 0.9% and 14.6%, respectively. Driving factors detection indicated that land use types had the strongest explanatory power affecting the water yield coefficient; the explanatory value reached 26.5% in 2000–2020 and will exceed 29.5% in 2030–2050. In addition, the interaction between any two factors was stronger than a single factor. This research provides scientific support for the precise management of watershed and water-land resources.

Modeling transitions in nation brand equity: An empirical assessment of the nation equity power grid

The purpose of this study is to assess longitudinal nation brand performance by modeling transitions in nation brand equity and to develop a method for nation brand performance assessment. This study has two objectives: (1) to empirically test Steenkamp’s nation equity power grid conceptual framework; its categories (dominant, receding, niche, emerging, and weak nation brands), and their expected development trajectories, and (2) to identify new types of nation brands and development patterns to complement the framework. To do this, this study used objective secondary data and applied the smooth transition technique. We assessed 41 countries’ nation brand performance over the 1995–2017 period to understand the development of their nation brand equity. Particular attention was paid to countries that had significantly improved their performance and countries that had lost their brand strength. Our findings support the categories proposed by Steenkamp, but we provide a more nuanced approach to analyzing countries’ brand strength and the possible development trajectories, and introduce new categories of nation brands called volatile nation brands and booming nation brands. Our approach to using the nonlinear smooth transition demonstrated how countries’ brand strength evolved over time, and also detected the speed of any transitions; in other words, how fast nation brands moved from one level to another. Our findings benefit country brand managers, enabling them to better determine their country’s positioning and the necessary means to improve brand equity. Understanding the mechanisms behind transitions in brand equity can also help researchers link these transitions back to various economic, social, cultural, and political transitions that have occurred in nations. Our method therefore has powerful explanatory value for a wide range of marketing, economics, and other social science studies.JEL Classification:M31

Precocious inventors: early patenting success and lifetime inventive performance

ABSTRACT Precocious inventors have a higher inventive productivity during their remaining career. Inventors who have their first patent either applied for extraordinarily fast or a first patent of especially high quality are regarded as precocious. This paper systematically includes individual and employer characteristics that can drive career productivity beside an early patenting success to reveal the true productivity effect of precociousness. We show that early patenting success reveals dimensions of inventive ability that are not captured in individual characteristics that are predetermined at the start of the career such as the school education level. The favourable work environment precocious inventors enjoyed also has a relatively low explanatory value for career productivity. Precocious inventors also do not benefit from cumulative advantage. Although also rival firms can use early patenting success as indicator for a high career productivity, early employers can retain a high share of their precocious inventors. We propose several reasons for this surprising phenomenon.

Social Norms Support the Protein Transition: The Relevance of Social Norms to Explain Increased Acceptance of Alternative Protein Burgers over 5 Years.

Developing alternative protein products-based on protein sources other than regular meat-is a possible pathway to counter environmental and health burdens. However, alternative proteins are not always accepted by consumers, and more research is needed to support a shift to more alternative proteins. Prior studies have mainly focused on individual drivers and perceptions; although we expect that social norms-the perceptions of the opinions of relevant others-are highly relevant in accepting alternative proteins. Online surveys were conducted among 2461 respondents in 2015 and 2000 respondents in 2019 (cross-sectional datasets); a subsample (n = 500) responded to both surveys (longitudinal dataset). We add to the literature by (1) demonstrating the added explanatory value of social norms beyond a range of individual drivers; (2) showing that this finding holds over time, and (3) comparing the impact of social norms across different dietary consumer groups. Meat lovers and flexitarians are more prone to follow social norms whereas meat abstainers are more prone to follow their individual attitudes and values. This study highlights the relevance of investigations beyond personal variables such as personal norms and attitudes and underscores the relevance of considering the social aspects of accepting alternative proteins.

The Ring World: Eversion of Small Double-Stranded Polynucleotide Circlets at the Origin of DNA Double Helix, RNA Polymerization, Triplet Code, Twenty Amino Acids, and Strand Asymmetry.

It is not entirely clear why, at some stage in its evolution, terrestrial life adopted double-stranded DNA as the hereditary material. To explain this, we propose that small, double-stranded, polynucleotide circlets have special catalytic properties. We then use this proposal as the basis for a 'view from here' that we term the Circlet hypothesis as part of a broader Ring World. To maximize the potential explanatory value of this hypothesis, we speculate boldly about the origins of several of the fundamental characteristics and briefly describe the main methods or treatments applied. The principal prediction of the paper is that the highly constrained, conformational changes will occur preferentially in dsDNA, dsRNA and hybrid RNA-DNA circlets that are below a critical size (e.g., 306 bp) and that these will favor the polymerization of precursors into RNA and DNA. We conclude that the Circlet hypothesis and the Ring World therefore have the attraction of offering the same solution to the fundamental problems probably confronting both the earliest cells and the most recent ones.

Social Media Communication and Network Correlates of HIV Infection and Transmission Risks Among Black Sexual Minority Men: Cross-sectional Digital Epidemiology Study.

In the United States, HIV disproportionately affects Black cisgender sexual minority men (BSMM). Although epidemiological and behavioral surveillance are integral to identifying BSMM at risk of HIV infection and transmission, overreliance on self-reported data, inability to observe social contexts, and neglect of populations with limited engagement in health care systems limits their effectiveness. Digital epidemiological approaches drawing on social media data offer an opportunity to overcome these limitations by passively observing in organic settings activities, beliefs, behaviors, and moods that indicate health risks but are otherwise challenging to capture. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether features of Facebook communication and networks were associated with biological, behavioral, and psychological indicators of HIV infection and transmission risk. Facebook and survey data were collected from BSMM aged 18 to 35 years living in Chicago (N=310). Participants' Facebook posts were characterized using 4 culturally tailored topic dictionaries related to aspects of HIV protection and risk among BSMM (sexual health; substance use; sex behavior; and ballroom culture, a salient subculture in lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer communities of color). Social network methods were used to capture structural features of BSMM's Facebook friendships (centrality, brokerage, and local clustering) and Facebook group affiliations. Multivariable regressions revealed relationships between these Facebook features and 5 ground truth indicators of HIV infection and transmission risk (sexually transmitted infection incidence, condomless sex, sex drug use, biomedical prevention, and depression). Although analysis of participants' Facebook posts revealed that HIV-related topics occupied a small portion of the total messages posted by each participant, significant associations were found between the following HIV risk indicators and Facebook features: Condomless sex, including communication about sexual health (odds ratio [OR] 1.58, 95% CI 1.09-2.29), ballroom culture (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.93), and friendship centrality (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52-0.92); Sex drug use, including communication about substance use (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.17-2.79) and friendship centrality (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.96) and brokerage (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51-0.99); Biomedical prevention, including communication about ballroom culture (OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01-0.71); and Depression, including communication about sexual health (β=-0.72, 95% CI -1.42 to -0.02), ballroom culture (β=.80, 95% CI 0.27-1.34), friendship centrality (β=-0.90, 95% CI -1.60 to -0.21), and Facebook group affiliations (β=.84, 95% CI 0.25-1.43). Facebook features provided no significant explanatory value for sexually transmitted infection incidence. Finding innovative strategies to detect BSMM at risk of contracting or transmitting HIV is critical to eliminating HIV disparities in this community. The findings suggest that social media data enable passive observance of social and communicative contexts that would otherwise go undetected using traditional HIV surveillance methods. As such, social media data are promising complements to more traditional data sources.