Expected Value Approach Research Articles

The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach*

This paper provides an order-of-magnitude assessment of the marginal social costs of greenhouse gas emissions. The calculations are based on a stochastic greenhouse damage model in which key parameters are random. This allows a closer representation of current scientific understanding and also enables calculation of a damage probability distribution. Thus, we account explicitly for the uncertain nature of the global warming phenomenon. We estimate social costs of C02 emissions in the order of 20 $/tC for emissions between 1991 and 2000, a value which rises over time to about 28 $/tC in 20212030. Similar figures for CH4 and N20 are also provided. As a consequence of the prevailing uncertainty, the standard deviation of the estimates is rather high. The distribution is positively skewed, which implies that the currently predominant method of using best guess values will lead to an underestimation of the expected costs of emissions.

Job Preferences in the Anticipatory Socialization Phase: A Comparison of Two Matching Models

Decision-making about jobs has been the focus of a large body of research and numerous theories. This area of research has been characterized as being in a period of transition in which the future of job choice models must include more innovative and parsimonious methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the validity of two idiographic Person-Environment fit methods for predicting job preferences. The first method applies some ideas from social cognition research, specifically the self-concept′s relationship to the development of job preferences (self-to-prototype matching). The second method applies an expectancy-value approach to the development of job preferences. The predictive ability of both models were examined longitudinally using a sample of 86 MBA students who were studied while in the process of making a job choice. The longitudinal procedure in this study provided a separation between job and preference ratings, which was an improvement over earlier job preference methodologies. Both models significantly predicted job preferences although the expectancy-value model explained a higher proportion of variance. Implications for research on job preferences are discussed.

Parental Influence on Children’s Moderate to Vigorous Physical Activity Participation: An Expectancy-Value Approach

This investigation examined parental influence on children’s moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) participation via an expectancy-value model that included parents’ behavior, parents’ beliefs about their children’s MVPA, and children’s beliefs about their MVPA. The influence of parents on their children’s MVPA was investigated via questionnaires tapping the belief systems of fourth- and fifth-grade children (n=71) and their parents (n=69). Self-reported MVPA was assessed for parents and children. Correlational analyses demonstrated a number of significant relationships between parents’ belief systems and children’s MVPA behavior and children’s belief systems and their physical activity participation. Based on hierarchical regression analyses, there was no evidence of a positive relationship between parents’ physical activity behavior (role modeling) and children’s physical activity behavior. Parents’ perceptions of their children’s MVPA competence was the only parent belief system variable related to children’s MVPA participation. In addition, children’s task orientation and expectancies significantly predicted their MVPA participation.

The equation of motion coupled-cluster method. A systematic biorthogonal approach to molecular excitation energies, transition probabilities, and excited state properties

A comprehensive overview of the equation of motion coupled-cluster (EOM-CC) method and its application to molecular systems is presented. By exploiting the biorthogonal nature of the theory, it is shown that excited state properties and transition strengths can be evaluated via a generalized expectation value approach that incorporates both the bra and ket state wave functions. Reduced density matrices defined by this procedure are given by closed form expressions. For the root of the EOM-CC effective Hamiltonian that corresponds to the ground state, the resulting equations are equivalent to the usual expressions for normal single-reference CC density matrices. Thus, the method described in this paper provides a universal definition of coupled-cluster density matrices, providing a link between EOM-CC and traditional ground state CC theory. Excitation energy, oscillator strength, and property calculations are illustrated by means of several numerical examples, including comparisons with full configuration interaction calculations and a detailed study of the ten lowest electronically excited states of the cyclic isomer of C4.

Energy derivative versus expectation value approach: the dipole moment of CO

The quality of first-order properties as energy derivatives or expectation values is investigated in calculations on the electric dipole moment of CO, employing averaged coupled pair functional (ACPF) and multireference single and double excitation configuration interaction (MRSDCI) methods. A careful optimization of the molecular orbitals in a multiconfiguration self-consistent-field (MCSCF) procedure turns out to be crucial for the reliability of the ACPF and MRSDCI energy derivatives. If the orbitals are not consistent with the electron correlation treatment the gradient corrections tend to overshoot the actual value and meaningless results can be obtained for the one-electron property. In these cases the expectation value approach may still give reasonably good results.

Energy derivative method in MRD CI calculation of rovibrational dependence of nuclear quadrupole coupling constants of diatomic molecules. Application to 7Li 2H in the X 1∑ + and A 1∑ + states

Computational aspects of the energy derivative multi-reference double-excitation configuraiton interactions approach to calculations of the electric field gradient (EFG) tensor are discussed. Special attention is paid to those features of the method which are essential for a physically relevant description of the nuclear quadrupole coupling in low-lying rovibronic states of diatomic molecules. The 2H and 7Li quadrupole coupling constants (QCCs) of rovibrational levels of 7Li 2H in its X 1∑ and A 1∑ + electronic states are calculated by this approach and compared with those based on the standard expectation value approach to the evaluation of the EFG tensor. The scheme might become useful in theoretical interpretation of the quadrupole hyperfine structure of excited rovibrational levels of diatomic molecules in their ground and excited electronic states.

On the calculation of first‐order properties: Expectation value versus energy derivative approach

AbstractThe definition of so‐called first‐order properties is, in general, not unique for approximate solutions of the Schrödinger equation. In the present work, the determination of molecular properties as the expectation value or energy derivative are compared for a wide class of electron correlation treatments that are based on the stationarity of certain modified energy functionals. The case in which all perturbation‐dependent parameters in the energy expression are optimized is taken as a reference point, to which the derivative and the expectation value approaches are related by a sequence of approximations. By analyzing the validity of these approximations, we are in a position to give general criteria for the choice of the method to be employed. The derivative approach is shown to be a special case of a general method to improve the calculation of molecular properties. Furthermore, this method is extended to give a correction to the energy itself. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Political Participation in an Action-Theory Model of Personality: Theory and Empirical Evidence

The application of an action-theory model of personality (AMP) to analyses of political participation is presented theoretically as well as empirically. AMP establishes missing links between action theory (especially expectancy-value theories) and selected personality variables (self-concept of own competence, control orientations, trust, subjective knowledge, and value orientations), which have proved to be significant in the prediction of political activity. Thus, AMP integrates (a) situation- and action-specific expectancy-value (i.e., situational) approaches and (b) personality (i.e., traitist) approaches to political participation. With reference to person-situation interactions, it is postulated in AMP, that the predictive value of situation-specific person variables and that of more or less generalized personality variables is a function of the quality of the cognitive structuring of the action situation under question (i. e., the political life situation). With reference to data from 100 West German young adults, empirical evidence is presented for the deduced hypotheses (1) that conventional political participation is predicted best by situation- and action-specific variables and (2) that the exposed political participation of political activists can be predicted best by situation-/action-specific motivational variables and that of political non-activists can be predicted best by domain-specific personality variables.

Dipole moment of IF and other interhalogen molecules

The dipole moment of IF and the remaining five interhalogen halides are computed at the MBPT(4) level employing effective potentials. A comparison between the finite-field and the Hellman–Feynman expectation value approach is presented. The theoretical values are in agreement with the experimental ones to within 10%. In the case of IF, whose dipole moment is unknown, we predict a value of 1.87±0.2 D. The correlation corrections constitute about 20% to 30% of the total dipole moment value, the dominant part of which is introduced at the second order. Only slight differences occur between the Hellman–Feynman expectation value formula and the finite-field procedure for dipole moments at the level of a second-order MBPT wave function.

LOCATION AND INVESTMENT EFFECTS OF A TAX ABATEMENT PROGRAM

Previous research has generally found tax abatements to be unimportant in firm locations, but their popularity is growing. This study uses an expected value approach to establish a criterion for measuring effectiveness and uses primary data to assess the actual effectiveness of a form of tax abatement used in 34 states. The expected value criterion requires that only 8.8 percent of all investment had to be influenced for the community to break even. Since 25 percent of all investments were influenced, communities were rational in using the abatements. However, if the school aid formula is modified so that schools did not receive additional aid when an abatement is granted, then 41.7 percent of all investment must be influenced, making the abatements irrational.

MERGING USES AND GRATIFICATIONS AND EXPECTANCY-VALUE THEORY

This investigation provides support for a process model of uses and gratifications based upon an expectancy-value approach. Results of the study supported the hypothesis that gratifications obtained are strongly related to the beliefs about media attributes but are not related to evaluations of those attributes. Also, the belief X evaluation products are correlated with gratifications obtained. When controls were instituted for certain intervening variables posited by the model, the hypothesized reductions in various relationships occurred. The model has significant implications for media consumption processes. Further, the results demonstrated that gratifications sought and obtained may be measured at the same level of abstraction, contrary to earlier speculation.

An extended expectancy-value approach to contraceptive alternatives

The expectancy value-normative influence model is based on the premise that the overall value to an individual of using an object (e.g. a specific contraceptive method) is a function of the degree to which its use is perceived to result in favorable consequences and the avoidance of unfavorable ones. Components of the Fishbein Extended Model are identified and discussed. The first the attitudinal component (Aact) made up of overt behavior (B) and behavioral intent (BI) incorporates 1) the individuals strength of belief connecting each salient contraceptive attribute and consequence of use to an individuals evaluation of each of the salient attributes. This component also includes the expectancy (beliefs regarding contraceptive characteristics) and the value (whether these characteristics and their results will be satisfactory or unsatisfactory). Normative beliefs (NBi) and motivation to comply (MCi) round out the model structure. This model was applied in a pilot study of contraceptive alternatives. The 23 attitude items used in the questionnaire were derived from in-depth interviews with 8 discussion groups composed of men and women of different backgrounds and were pretested on 117 respondents. The sample consisted of 58 individuals (21 males 37 females) ages 18 or older. Multiple correlations varied from R = .46 (pill males) to .88 (diaphragm females) with a median R of .57 and tended to be higher for females perhaps reflecting their greater involvement in the contraception decision-making process. The highest multiple Rs were obtained for lesser used methods such as the diaphragm and foam. Female intentions for the couple to use condoms were dominated by the normative (perceptions regarding the actions we think important others believe should be taken) rather than attitudinal (beliefs regarding the characteristics associated with the consequences of a method) component as were male intentions to have the couple use oral contraception. Attitudinal influences predominated for the diaphragm while IUD intentions were largely under normative control and those for foam under joint influence. Highly significant attitudinal correlations were found for questionnaire items that the user groups considered relevant for their evaluations of the method. While these findings should be considered tentative given the small and restrictive sample they illustrate the potential of this theoretical approach for understanding family planning and population behavior.

A DECISION MODEL FOR SELECTING ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES

One important aspect of experimental design is the decision whether to use a one‐ or two‐tailed hypothesis test. Assuming that the sample size and the level of significance have been specified, the selection of an alternative hypothesis can materially affect the conclusion drawn from the experiment. In the past, this selection was made on a subjective basis or for pragmatic reasons which can bias the experiment. This paper suggests an expected value approach, maximizing the expected power of the test, to place the selection of alternative hypotheses in an objective and reliable decision framework.

The Nature and Uses of Expectancy-Value Models in Consumer Attitude Research

In tests of two expectancy-value models of attitude reported recently in JMR, Sheth and Talarzyk [18] tested a model attributed to Rosenberg [14] while Bass and Talarzyk [3] tested a model attributed to Fishbein [7, 8]. The two models were tested on a common data base using essentially the same measures.^ Unfortunately, neither article provided a valid test of either of these two models and served only to confuse rather than to clarify some of the issues regarding the use of expectancy-value models as a basis for understanding some aspects of consumer behavior. Because of the growing interest of consumer researchers in an expectancy-value approach to attitude structure and dynamics and behavioral prediction, it may be useful to specify the shortcomings of these two studies and clarify some essential characteristics of the expectancy-value approach. We intend to show that the authors: (1) did not provide tests of any expectancy-value model let alone those of Rosenberg or Fishbein; (2) actually proposed a new model which might be termed an adequacy-importance model; and (3) demonstrated that their model actually has less predictive validity than an expectancy-va lue model.

A TREATISE ON THE USE OF EXPECTED VALUES IN WATER RESOURCE PROJECT EVALUATION1

ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on two factors that influence the acceptability of the expected value criterion as a method of handling risk or uncertainty in decision‐making where damages from unusual physical occurrences such as hurricanes or floods must be considered. These are the length of time of project existence and the problem of obtaining accurate estimates of the probability of occurrence for different sizes of natural disasters. The problem of estimating accurate probabilities of occurrence for different sizes of natural disasters is not as great as it might appear and in most situations will not defeat the usefulness of the method. The time span during which the project is expected to exist has greater implications for the usefulness of the expected value approach appears highly applicable. However, it becomes less applicable for projects that are short‐term in nature. The basis for distinguishing between short‐ and long‐term projects is presented.

Stochastic Linear Programming with Applications to Economic Models

In an ordinary linear programming problem we assume that all the parameters, i.e. the coefficients of the objective function, the inequalities and the resource availabilities, are sure numbers known without errors. This is frequently not a realistic assumption in economic models, where the errors of aggregation t1], the extraneous nature of estimates t2] and even the incidence of market expectations are quite significant. Hence in economic models one should be careful in accepting the results of linear programming without an analysis of the errors involved [3]. Stochastic linear programming (also called risk programming) is one of the most powerful techniques for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. In practice, of course, economic data are always liable to errors of various types. In stochastic linear programming, some or all of the parameters become random variables, i.e. we know only their probability distribution. A distinction is generally made between the two approaches to stochastic linear programming: the passive (also termed the 'wait and see') approach and the active (also termed the ' here and now ' approach). In the passive approach t4], the probability distribution of the objective function is derived explicitly or by numerical approximations, and decision rules are based on some features of the distribution, i.e. some measure of central tendency, of dispersion or other characteristics such as the 95 per cent. confidence interval. In the active approach F4] the decision variables are the amounts of resources to be allocated to the various activities. A risk preference functional corresponding to the stochastic objective function is usually specified, and the decision variables, i.e. allocation of resources, are chosen to optimize the expected value or other characteristics of the risk preference functional. We shall attempt here to prove two simple theorems relating to the passive and active approaches, and to derive some operational methods for numerical approximation of the probability distribution of the objective function. This idea will be illustrated with the help of a two-sector development planning model in India in its static and dynamic framework. In this connection we shall also examine the relations between the certainty-equivalent method t5] (when each random variable is replaced by its expected value, assumed to be finite) and the expected value approach (when, in the active and passive approaches, decision rules are based