Expected Growth Rate Research Articles

The Value of Government Debt

The market value of government debt equals the present discounted value of primary surpluses. Applying present value decompositions from asset pricing to this valuation equation, I find that half of the variation in the market value of debt to GDP ratio corresponds to varying forecasts of future primary surpluses, and half to varying discount rates. Variation in expected growth rates is unimportant.

Формування людського капіталу у сфері охорони здоров'я: проблеми та напрями зменшення фіктивізації

The dynamics of processes of human capital formation in the sphere of healthcare is investigated. The trends, processes and asymmetries in this area that accompany the gradual market transformation of the national health system are often characterized, and often provoke the formation of unproductive forms of human capital and the processes of fiktivization. The system of indicators for estimating nominal and real human capital is proposed. The dynamics of nominal human capital is estimated by the following indicators: the growth of the rate of the number of doctors of all specialties per 10 thousand population; the growth rate of the number of average medical personnel per 10 thousand population; the growth rate of the planned capacity of outpatient clinics for 10 thousand people. To assess the dynamics of nominal human capital: growth rate of the average life expectancy at birth (without gender differentiation); the growth rate of the disease per 100 thousand population (all diseases). According to our methodology, the growth of the index of real human capital shows progress in the medical sphere. The growth of the nominal human capital index shows an increase in spending on this area, and it does not always indicate progress, although its substantial reduction is alarming and requires a more detailed analysis. If real human capital grows faster than nominal, then healthcare activities are effective, and if on the contrary – in this area the processes of fictivization takes place. Recommendations for reducing the fiktivization processes in the sphere of healthcare are proposed, which include: development and implementation of a system for monitoring the quality of medical services on the basic data of the eHealth system; the further introduction of digital technologies into the national health system and, on this basis, – increasing the availability of analytical information for both medical professionals and researchers, and for the public, the dissemination of medical literacy and healthy lifestyles.

Cross-border acquisitions in Central and Eastern Europe with focus on Russia versus Germany deals: an empirical analysis

Globalization, deregulation and the attendant liberalization of capital markets have made cross border mergers and acquisitions attractive to firms seeking to strategically position themselves within the global economy to take advantage of the opportunities that globalization offers. As a result, cross-border acquisition and merging activities have increased dramatically over the recent decades. Because of the fall of the “iron curtain” and the proceeds of European integration, mainly the European single market has created new possibilities. Moreover, one of the main results of globalization is a greater role of emerging markets in the global economy, especially in the area of foreign direct investment. The paper therefore analyses announced and completed cross border acquisitions between a public listed acquirer and target companies from Central and Eastern Europe and associated reactions of the capital markets. The analysis focuses, in particular, on cross-border Russia versus Germany deals. Examining the sample of 11,085 announced deals over the period from January 1990 through December 2014, the analysis points out some important trends in the global economy in the area of companies acquisition and merging activities. In summary, it can be emphasized that Central and Eastern Europe as the region is very attractive from the market’s perspective due to the expected growth rates and the framework conditions as well as from the perspective of Western European investors. Analysis results indicate that Russian market is better in the area of cross-border acquisitions than remaining Central and Eastern European markets. It allows us to suggest that it is worthier investing in Russia than in remaining Central and Eastern Europe.

Biocon: Taking a Crack at the Global Biosimilar Market

India’s first biotechnology company, Biocon, has developed into a fully integrated biotechnology company with an impressive portfolio of small molecule generic drugs as well as new research initiatives. From 2007, Biocon has started paying attention to the new market for biologics and biosimilars. The current global biosimilar market is worth US$3.3 billion with an expected growth rate of 25 per cent. Over a decade of research, strategic collaborations and acquisition of strategic assets have enabled Biocon to become the leading biosimilar manufacturer in India. However, the biosimilar market remains a difficult market globally. The complex manufacturing process of biosimilars makes it harder to manufacture quality biosimilars. The regulatory environments in different countries are a major challenge. Also, various other large global pharmaceutical companies are actively seeking access to this market, thereby increasing competition for all. Biocon has to face all these issues as it goes ahead with an outward-looking plan of expanding its biosimilar and biologics portfolio.

The Japanese Electric Power Policy Studied through the Business Structure of the Power Industry: A Long-term Analysis before and after "Deregulation"

The Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) of Japan has long been releasing the detailed financial statements of their member corporations (on their website). We have analyzed the transition of Japan's electric power policy through the business structure of the electric power industry using the FEPC financial data over 53 years. Thus, we have clarified the problems and distortions built into the power industry by Japan's power policy as stated in the following: (1) During the regulation period, the dual-price mechanism for the industrial use and the home-use sectors had been effectuated, where (2) the former shared two thirds of the power demand but yielded only small profits or even losses; and the latter, sharing only one third of the demand, yielded nearly all of the industry's profits; however, (3) since the start of complete retail deregulation, this dual-price mechanism has come to suffer paralysis and the power majors began a cutthroat competition, which now seems to result in diminution of profitability in the home-use sector (the industry's former treasure box). This price-cutting war is considered very dangerous for the sustainability of this industry because this business is highly equipment-intensive and is severely vulnerable to any revenue instability. Meanwhile, declining demand due to the declining population is inevitable, and the power infrastructure will become excessively capacitive against demand. At the policy level of the government, recognition to this is overwhelmingly short. There is a possibility that the most powerful risk of both the electric power industries and social economy will be the way of the electric power policy that leads electricity demand from the expected growth rate and prepares the power supply configuration based on it.

Fear of the Market or Fear of the Competitor? Ambiguity in a Real Options Game

In “Fear of the Market or Fear of the Competitor? Ambiguity in a Real Options Game”, Tobias Hellmann and Jacco Thijssen study the effects of managerial ambiguity aversion on investment decisions in a duopoly. Ambiguity is over the investment project’s expected growth rate (the “trend”). In their continuous-time model they assume that investment commands a first-mover advantage, which, in equilibrium, leads to pre-emption. They show that ambiguity reduces pre-emptive pressure. As a consequence firm value may be increasing in the degree of ambiguity. They also find that the worst-case prior (under which managers compute firm value) is not always given by the lowest trend, but can switch over time between the lowest and the highest trend. Finally, if one of the firms is not ambiguity averse, then its value is increasing in the other firm’s degree of ambiguity.

Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning

This paper investigates a general-equilibrium asset pricing model of the term structure of nominal interest rates. In a pure exchange economy with incomplete information, investors are unable to observe the expected growth rates of both exogenous endowment and money supply and, therefore, engage in dynamic Bayesian inference. The dependence of term premia on beliefs allows the model to increase the volatility of excess holding returns and introduce GARCH properties, both of which interact with the volatility of macro variables. A calibration exercise also shows that the model generates standard deviations of term premia, which nearly matches data for zero-coupon US Treasury bonds.

Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning

This paper investigates a continuous-time monetary asset-pricing model of the term structure of nominal interest rates. In a pure exchange economy with incomplete information, investors cannot observe the expected growth rates of both exogenous real output and money supply. Therefore, they apply dynamic Bayesian inference. The model obtains explicit solutions for equilibrium prices of consumption goods and nominal bonds, and the stochastic process of an investor’s beliefs. The dependence of term premia on beliefs allows the model to introduce a GARCH property, which interacts with the volatility of the macro variables. In particular, the volatility of excess returns is inversely related to noise in the macro variables, suggesting that their imprecise information does not increase fluctuations in interest rates. Using beliefs as the factor of uncertainties in economic states, the model also shows that there is a negative correlation between the new measure of uncertainty and the velocity of money, consistent with Friedman’s explanation that demand for money for precautionary motives has a negative impact on the velocity.

Replicability of Introgression Under Linked, Polygenic Selection.

We study how a block of genome with a large number of weakly selected loci introgresses under directional selection into a genetically homogeneous population. We derive exact expressions for the expected rate of growth of any fragment of the introduced block during the initial phase of introgression, and show that the growth rate of a single-locus variant is largely insensitive to its own additive effect, but depends instead on the combined effect of all loci within a characteristic linkage scale. The expected growth rate of a fragment is highly correlated with its long-term introgression probability in populations of moderate size, and can hence identify variants that are likely to introgress across replicate populations. We clarify how the introgression probability of an individual variant is determined by the interplay between hitchhiking with relatively large fragments during the early phase of introgression and selection on fine-scale variation within these, which at longer times results in differential introgression probabilities for beneficial and deleterious loci within successful fragments. By simulating individuals, we also investigate how introgression probabilities at individual loci depend on the variance of fitness effects, the net fitness of the introduced block, and the size of the recipient population, and how this shapes the net advance under selection. Our work suggests that even highly replicable substitutions may be associated with a range of selective effects, which makes it challenging to fine map the causal loci that underlie polygenic adaptation.

ЗДРАВООХРАНЕНИЕ РОССИИ И РЕГИОНОВ СЕВЕРО-КАВКАЗСКОГО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ОКРУГА: СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ВЫЗОВЫ, ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РЕФОРМИРОВАНИЯ

The article analyzes the state of the health sector in the Russian Federation in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, reveals the level and reasons of inequality in the capacity of medicine in federal districts and regions, identifies the main directions for the development and reforming the healthcare system in the country and the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District. The complex comparative analysis of the state and dynamics of the development of the healthcare in Russia and the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District made it possible to reveal the current challenges, causes and areas of backwardness, and to justify the need to overcome health inequalities in the subjects of the North Caucasus. It has been stated that in recent years there has been observed a positive trend in the development of healthcare in Russia and in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. However, the District with its constituent entities are far behind the average indicators of Russia and other federal districts and entities in terms of the level and rates of development of health care. The slowdown is observed at the level of development of the material and technical base, personnel and resource support, per capita financing and salaries of medical personnel. The overall gap in health care is reflected in the health indicators of the population. In the regions of the North Caucasus, the growth rate of the life expectancy is much lower, and the morbidity and mortality rates of the population, including infant mortality, are higher than the national average. There has been suggested measures of gradual reforming health care system to overcome the gap, which corresponds to the general provisions of the RF Presidential Order No. 598 of May 7, 2012 “On improving state policy in health care”

A Novel Approach to 3-D Change Detection in Multitemporal LiDAR Data Acquired in Forest Areas

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data have been widely used to characterize the 3-D structure of the forest. However, their use in a multitemporal framework has been quite limited due to the relevant challenges introduced by the comparison of pairs of point clouds. Because of the irregular sampling of the laser scanner and the complex structure of forest areas, it is not possible to perform a point-to-point comparison between the two data. To overcome these challenges, a novel hierarchical approach to the detection of 3-D changes in forest areas is proposed. The method first detects the large changes (e.g., cut trees) by comparing the Canopy Height Models derived from the two LiDAR data. Then, according to an object-based change detection approach, it identifies the single-tree changes by monitoring both the treetop and the crown volume growth. The proposed approach can compare LiDAR data with significantly different pulse densities, thus allowing the use of many data available in real applications. Experimental results pointed out that the method can accurately detect large changes, exhibiting a low rate of false and missed alarms. Moreover, it can detect changes in terms of single-tree growth, which are consistent with the expected growth rates of the considered areas.

Outperformance and Tracking: Dynamic Asset Allocation for Active and Passive Portfolio Management

ABSTRACTPortfolio management problems are often divided into two types: active and passive, where the objective is to outperform and track a preselected benchmark, respectively. Here, we formulate and solve a dynamic asset allocation problem that combines these two objectives in a unified framework. We look to maximize the expected growth rate differential between the wealth of the investor’s portfolio and that of a performance benchmark while penalizing risk-weighted deviations from a given tracking portfolio. Using stochastic control techniques, we provide explicit closed-form expressions for the optimal allocation and we show how the optimal strategy can be related to the growth optimal portfolio. The admissible benchmarks encompass the class of functionally generated portfolios (FGPs), which include the market portfolio, as the only requirement is that they depend only on the prevailing asset values. Finally, some numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the risk–reward profile of the optimal allocation.

Is enterprise risk management a value added activity?

Enterprise risk management (ERM) programs are advocated as the solution for the failures and weaknesses of the traditional silo-based risk management in creating and protecting stakeholders’ value. ERM encompasses activities and strategies which enable the company to systematically identify, measure, reduce or exploit, as well as to control and monitor the exposure to various types of corporate risks – strategic, fi nancial, operational, reporting as well as compliance risks. By considering the interactive effects of different risk events, ERM offers a balance between the dual nature of risk – ensuring effective protection from threats and seizing the opportunities. This paper explores the association between ERM and a set of fundamental value determinants of S&P 500 non-fi nancial companies over the period from 2003 to 2012. Contrary to arguments found in the existing ERM literature, ERM companies did not experience a positive effect on most of the value drivers. We fi nd that ERM is associated with lower expected growth rates within one to two years after the ERM adoption, indicating that ERM could even have a negative effect on the company’s fundamental value. On the other hand, the study showed that ERM is associated with higher free cash fl ows after six years of its use. Our research thus found indicative evidence that ERM produces some positive effects over a longer term, as well as some negative immediate effects, which could be explained with the increased risk aversion of ERM companies. However, since the tested models are explorative in nature, more theoretical and empirical research is needed to establish how ERM really works within a company.

Stochastic accumulation of human capital and welfare in the Uzawa–Lucas model: an analytical characterization

Stochastic growth models are often solved numerically, because they are not tractable in general. However, recent several studies find the closed-form solution to the stochastic Uzawa–Lucas model in which technological progress or population dynamics follow a Brownian motion process with one or two parameter restriction(s). However, they assume that the return on the accumulation of human capital is deterministic, which is inconsistent with empirical evidence. Therefore, I develop the Uzawa–Lucas model in which the accumulation of human capital follows a mixture of a Brownian motion process and many Poisson jump processes, and obtain the closed-form solution. Moreover, I use it to examine the nexus between human capital uncertainty, technological progress, expected growth rate of human capital, and welfare.

Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey

The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1) an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a sustained fall in the saving rate of different age-groups. During the same period, there has also been a significant increase in access to credit by Turkish households. In this paper, we argue that a model which incorporates a borrowing constraint mechanism together with the observed increases in the expected growth rate of income and the substantial declines in the real interest rate is able to explain the change in saving across cohorts in Turkey over the last decade. We provide both micro-level evidence on the age-saving profile for Turkey as well as quantitative results from a simple three-period OLG framework with borrowing constraints to account for the change in the saving rate for different age-groups between 2004 and 2014.

Congress of Neurological Surgeons Systematic Review and Evidence-Based Guidelines on the Role of Imaging in the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Vestibular Schwannomas.

What sequences should be obtained on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to evaluate vestibular schwannomas before and after surgery? Adults with vestibular schwannomas. Initial Preoperative Evaluation Level 3: Imaging used to detect vestibular schwannomas should use high-resolution T2-weighted and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI. Level 3: Standard T1, T2, fluid attenuated inversion recovery, and diffusion weighted imaging MR sequences obtained in axial, coronal, and sagittal plane may be used for detection of vestibular schwannomas. Preoperative Surveillance Level 3: Preoperative surveillance for growth of a vestibular schwannoma should be followed with either contrast-enhanced 3-dimensional (3-D) T1 magnetization prepared rapid acquisition gradient echo (MPRAGE) or high-resolution T2 (including constructive interference in steady state [CISS] or fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition [FIESTA] sequences) MRI. Postoperative Evaluation Level 2: Postoperative evaluation should be performed with postcontrast 3-D T1 MPRAGE, with nodular enhancement considered suspicious for recurrence. Is there a role for advanced imaging for facial nerve detection preoperatively (eg, CISS/FIESTA or diffusion tensor imaging)? Adults with proven or suspected vestibular schwannomas by imaging. Level 3: T2-weighted MRI may be used to augment visualization of the facial nerve course as part of preoperative evaluation. What is the expected growth rate of vestibular schwannomas on MRI, and how often should they be imaged if a "watch and wait" philosophy is pursued? Adults with suspected vestibular schwannomas by imaging. Level 3: MRIs should be obtained annually for 5 yr, with interval lengthening thereafter with tumor stability. Do cystic vestibular schwannomas behave differently than their solid counterparts? Adults with vestibular schwannomas with cystic components. Level 3: Adults with cystic vestibular schwannomas should be counseled that their tumors may more often be associated with rapid growth, lower rates of complete resection, and facial nerve outcomes that may be inferior in the immediate postoperative period but similar to noncystic schwannomas over time. Should the extent of lateral internal auditory canal involvement be considered by treating physicians? Adult patients with vestibular schwannomas. Level 3: The degree of lateral internal auditory canal involvement by tumor adversely affects facial nerve and hearing outcomes and should be emphasized when interpreting imaging for preoperative planning. How should patients with neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) and vestibular schwannoma be imaged and over what follow-up period? Adult patients with NF2 and vestibular schwannomas. Level 3: In general, vestibular schwannomas associated with NF2 should be imaged (similar to sporadic schwannomas) with the following caveats: 1.More frequent imaging may be adopted in NF2 patients because of a more variable growth rate for vestibular schwannomas, and annual imaging may ensue once the growth rate is established. 2.In NF2 patients with bilateral vestibular schwannomas, growth rate of a vestibular schwannoma may increase after resection of the contralateral tumor, and therefore, more frequent imaging may be indicated, based on the nonoperated tumor's historical rate of growth. 3.Careful consideration should be given to whether contrast is necessary in follow-up studies or if high-resolution T2 (including CISS or FIESTA-type sequences) MRI may adequately characterize changes in lesion size instead. How long should vestibular schwannomas be imaged after surgery, including after gross-total, near-total, and subtotal resection? Adult patients with vestibular schwannomas followed after surgery. Level 3: For patients receiving gross total resection, a postoperative MRI may be considered to document the surgical impression and may occur as late as 1 yr after surgery. For patients not receiving gross total resection, more frequent surveillance scans are suggested; annual MRI scans may be reasonable for 5 yr. Imaging follow-up should be adjusted accordingly for continued surveillance if any change in nodular enhancement is demonstrated. The full guideline can be found at https://www.cns.org/guidelines/guidelines-management-patients-vestibular-schwannoma/chapter_5.

Two-length-scale turbulence model for self-similar buoyancy-, shock-, and shear-driven mixing.

The three-equation k-L-a turbulence model [B. Morgan and M. Wickett, Three-equation model for the self-similar growth of Rayleigh-Taylor and Richtmyer-Meshkov instabilities, Phys. Rev. E 91, 043002 (2015)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.91.043002] is extended by the addition of a second length scale equation. It is shown that the separation of turbulence transport and turbulence destruction length scales is necessary for simultaneous prediction of the growth parameter and turbulence intensity of a Kelvin-Helmholtz shear layer when model coefficients are constrained by similarity analysis. Constraints on model coefficients are derived that satisfy an ansatz of self-similarity in the low-Atwood-number limit and allow the determination of model coefficients necessary to recover expected experimental behavior. The model is then applied in one-dimensional simulations of Rayleigh-Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer-Meshkov, Kelvin-Helmholtz, and combined Rayleigh-Taylor-Kelvin-Helmholtz instability mixing layers to demonstrate that the expected growth rates are recovered numerically. Finally, it is shown in the case of combined instability that the model predicts a mixing width that is a linear combination of Rayleigh-Taylor and Kelvin-Helmholtz mixing processes.

The Characteristics and Causes of Dividend Policy of China’s Listed Companies—A Case Study Based on UF Network

Dividend policy is an important part of the company’s financial management, which is directly related to the company’s survival and development. Although higher incentives can increase shareholders’ confidence in the company’s development and obtain considerable profits, it will reduce the company’s retained earnings, affect the company’s further development, and the company’s expected growth rate will fall; lower dividends will bring the company more development funds, but deviate from the company’s shareholders’ wishes and damage the company’s image. A company’s dividend policy affects the company’s financial structure and investment financing activities, reflecting the company’s direct return on shareholder investment. This article starts from the “UF network”, analyzes its dividend policy, and tries to explain the reasons for this feature.

Edukacija za rad u velnes turizmu – studija slučaja

Popularisation of travels aiming to prevent illnesses of a modern man has resulted in an exceptionally dynamic development of wellness tourism in the world. As one of the fastest growing segments of tourism industry, wellness tourism reaches an annual growth rate that is almost 50% higher than the expected growth rate of the overall global tourism economy. As a service industry in which the human factor plays the most important role, the wellness industry provides a large number of new jobs each year. However, new working positions should be filled by adequately trained and motivated workers. It is therefore necessary to innovate the existing education systems, both in the field of formal and informal education. Finding out how wellness industry workers are trained in Serbia and Slovenia and what kind of changes should be made in that field in order for both of these countries to be competitive on a global market were the main goals of the study conducted as a part of the cross-border cooperation between the Faculty of Sport and Tourism from Novi Sad and Faculty of Tourism in Brežice. The results of the study indicate that the practice of wellness tourism is far more open for innovations in comparison with universities. The study has also shown that, in order to secure quality education of future professionals, it is necessary to establish a closer cooperation between the universities and the leaders in spa and wellness industry.

OptPipe - a pipeline for optimizing metabolic engineering targets

BackgroundWe propose OptPipe - a Pipeline for Optimizing Metabolic Engineering Targets, based on a consensus approach. The method generates consensus hypotheses for metabolic engineering applications by combining several optimization solutions obtained from distinct algorithms. The solutions are ranked according to several objectives, such as biomass and target production, by using the rank product tests corrected for multiple comparisons.ResultsOptPipe was applied in a genome-scale model of Corynebacterium glutamicum for maximizing malonyl-CoA, which is a valuable precursor for many phenolic compounds. In vivo experimental validation confirmed increased malonyl-CoA level in case of ΔsdhCAB deletion, as predicted in silico.ConclusionsA method was developed to combine the optimization solutions provided by common knockout prediction procedures and rank the suggested mutants according to the expected growth rate, production and a new adaptability measure. The implementation of the pipeline along with the complete documentation is freely available at https://github.com/AndrasHartmann/OptPipe.