Expected Cash Flows Research Articles

A stochastic goal programming model to derive stable cash management policies

In this paper, we consider cash management systems with multiple bank accounts described by a given particular relationship between accounts and by a linear state transition law. Since cash managers may simultaneously consider a number of possibly conflicting goals, we provide a general stochastic goal programming model that is able to handle multiple goals and also the inherent uncertainty introduced by expected cash flows. We describe in detail an instance of our general model that considers the optimization of three different criteria such as cost, risk and cash balance stability. We claim that cash balance stability is an interesting goal to deal with the inherent uncertainty of expected cash flows. We also provide useful instructions for cash managers to set the main parameters of our model in practice. Our model provides a systematic approach to multiobjective cash management that is ready to be implemented in decision support systems for cash management.

Quem perde e quem ganha com a PEC 287/2016? Uma análise pela variação da riqueza atuarial do segurado urbano brasileiro do Regime Geral de Previdência Social

Resumo Este estudo mensura a alteração de riqueza do segurado pela reforma da Proposta de Emenda à Constituição n. 287/2016 (PEC 287, 2016), com a criação do pedágio e alterações na idade mínima, fatores de reposição, média dos salários de contribuição e percentual de reversão das pensões. Propõe-se o uso do indicador valor presente líquido atuarial aplicado ao fluxo de caixa esperado das contribuições e benefícios de aposentadoria programada, por invalidez e pensão por morte, além da reversão a cônjuge com continuidade a filhos menores. Os mais atingidos negativamente são aqueles com idade próxima à aposentadoria por idade e pouco tempo de contribuição. Porém, para grupos com grande tempo de contribuição (mais de 29 anos para homens e 21 para mulheres) e idades entre 45 e 55 anos, para homens, e entre 40 e 54 anos, para mulheres, há um surpreendente ganho de riqueza atuarial.

Private Equity Valuations and Public Equity Performance

It is reasonable to expect that changes in private equity valuations should bear some correspondence to public equity performance because private assets and public assets both respond to common influences such as changes in discount rates. But it is also reasonable to recognize that changes in private equity valuations should depart to some extent from public equity performance owing to differences in risk, liquidity, and cash flow expectations. These differences affect the degree of correspondence. In this article, the authors explore an additional influence on private equity valuations that affects not the degree of correspondence, but rather the symmetry of the correspondence. The authors argue that because private equity managers are less constrained than public market participants by the forces of no-arbitrage pricing, they have greater discretion to introduce biases into their valuations. Based on an extensive sample of private equity valuations, the authors find persuasive evidence that private equity managers produce positively biased valuations that appear to be rationalized by information that should not be relevant. TOPICS:Private equity, performance measurement

Post- to Pre-Tax Discount Rates: Not a Simple Conversion

Abstract It is widely accepted that financial markets tend to make assessments of value on expectations of post-tax cash flows, since that is what equity investors receive. There is however, from time to time, a need to ascertain and apply a pre-tax discount rate to discount pre-tax cashflows. Examples include (i) the assessment of regulatory returns and (ii) impairment testing of cash generating units. This paper highlights the implicit assumptions inherent in the most commonly applied shorthand method of determining pre-tax discount rates before considering modifications to create a more realistic assumption set. The paper concludes with the derivation of a shorthand formula for finite life project cashflows, which often require a pre-tax discount rate. The author agrees that while all the cash flows should be modelled on a post-tax basis and then back solved, using an iterative approach, to find the actual pre-tax rate, where a shorthand is required the formulae discussed in this paper can be applied, provided the limitations are understood.

Earnings yield and predictability in the dry bulk shipping industry

We examine the relation between vessel prices, net earnings and holding period returns, in the dry bulk shipping industry. In doing so, we provide a framework for pricing shipping assets, with finite economic lives and also subject to wear and tear. Shipping earnings yields negatively forecast future net earnings growth while there is no consistent evidence of time-varying risk premia. We provide an economic interpretation for the obtained results and argue that the investment decisions of shipowners affect the current price of the asset through the expected cash flow stream, thus implying cash flow predictability.

Firm-specific investor sentiment and the stock market response to earnings news

We link accounting-based anomalies to investors’ behavioral biases and find that investors respond to earnings news differently according to sentiment. The stock price reaction to positive earnings surprises is significantly greater for firms with high sentiment, suggesting that investors are more optimistic about the expected cash flows included in good earnings news for firms with high sentiment. Investors only partially accept information in good earnings news that differs from their expectations for firms with low sentiment. For negative earnings surprises, stock price sensitivity is slightly higher for firms with low sentiment, but this effect is insignificant because investors only partially update their information from bad earnings news regardless of the sentiment level. We observe no difference in the information content of earnings news according to sentiment level that could induce the different stock price sensitivity patterns.

Analysis on the Path and Mechanism of Anti-corruption Influencing Corporate Investment

At present, China is in a period of economic transition. Due to the imperfect system and supervision mechanism, the government's control over key resources has led to corporate corruption. In this article, we study the path and mechanism of anti-corruption influencing corporate investment through combing the literature and empirical research. Anti-corruption may influence corporate investment by the cost of capital and expected cash flow. The empirical results show that the influence of anti-corruption on enterprise investment is heterogeneous in property right, region and industry. Under different levels of intervention and control, private corporations are negatively affected by the anti-corruption movement. Under high intervention and control, state-owned enterprises are positively affected by the anti-corruption movement.

Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Towards Ahistorical Rating Migration Matrices and Default Probability Term Structures

The study examines rating migration, and default probability term structures obtained from rating migration matrices. It expands on the use of rating migration matrices with reduced form bond valuation models, by formally delineating the probability of default according to the likely rating paths of a bond, as implied by the rating migration matrix. Further, two alternatives are also considered. First, the cost of default is stipulated as the recovery of par according to the exit rating upon default. Also, in addition to stating the value of a bond in terms of expected cash flows, when considering the probability of default, the value of a bond is alternatively stated as the present value of all likely rating paths of the bond, discounted against the market risk-bearing bond forward rates of the different rating categories. The impact of term structure volatility and rating migration uncertainty on bond valuation is also considered.It is shown that the relationship between rating migration and default probability is complex, and the default probabilities of different rating categories are time-dependent and not isolated from each other. Also, rating migration resembles a delayed default process that influences default probabilities of subsequent intervals. The implications of a rating migration matrix may perhaps only be fully understood through simulation. This form one of the first points by which to evaluate rating migration matrices. The results of the valuation model show that historical rating migration matrices may not be optimal for pricing bonds ahistorically. A principal premise of the study is the dichotomy between historical values and ahistorical estimates, particularly with regards to rating migration. It is argued that historical estimates face two key shortcomings: they must be able to accurately forecast future rating migration and rating category intensities as a result, and they must specify a method to include rating migration uncertainty. An optimization model is delineated to extract ahistorical rating migration matrices from market prices. This too has implications that should be considered. In light of the above, reduced form models may have an advantage over structural models, in their ability to portray a far more sophisticated default process.

Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Towards Ahistorical Rating Migration Matrices and Default Probability Term Structures

The study examines rating migration, and default probability term structures obtained from rating migration matrices. It expands on the use of rating migration matrices with reduced form bond valuation models, by formally delineating the probability of default according to the likely rating paths of a bond, as implied by the rating migration matrix. Further, two alternatives are also considered. First, the cost of default is stipulated as the recovery of par according to the exit rating upon default. Also, in addition to stating the value of a bond in terms of expected cash flows, when considering the probability of default, the value of a bond is alternatively stated as the present value of all likely rating paths of the bond, discounted against the market risk-bearing bond forward rates of the different rating categories. The impact of term structure volatility and rating migration uncertainty on bond valuation is also considered.It is shown that the relationship between rating migration and default probability is complex, and the default probabilities of different rating categories are time-dependent and not isolated from each other. Also, rating migration resembles a delayed default process that influences default probabilities of subsequent intervals. The implications of a rating migration matrix may perhaps only be fully understood through simulation. This form one of the first points by which to evaluate rating migration matrices. The results of the valuation model show that historical rating migration matrices may not be optimal for pricing bonds ahistorically. A principal premise of the study is the dichotomy between historical values and ahistorical estimates, particularly with regards to rating migration. It is argued that historical estimates face two key shortcomings: they must be able to accurately forecast future rating migration and rating category intensities as a result, and they must specify a method to include rating migration uncertainty. An optimization model is delineated to extract ahistorical rating migration matrices from market prices. This too has implications that should be considered. In light of the above, reduced form models may have an advantage over structural models, in their ability to portray a far more sophisticated default process.

A Real Options Model for Evaluating Investments in the Guarulhos Airport Concession Program

The Brazilian government began, in 2012, the program of concessions of the administration of Brazilian airports in order to improve customer service through private capital. One of the main subjects of this concession plan was the airport of Guarulhos, in the state of São Paulo (Brazil), which is the largest airport in the country, responsible on average for over 20,000 flights and transporting approximately 4 million passengers per month. Concessions of this scale demand large investments, which in turn can result in greater uncertainties regarding future cash flows. In certain cases, the NPV (Net Present Value) of these investments may become negative, which does not necessarily mean that the undertaking is unfeasible, or that it should not be encouraged. Changes in the overall economic scenario can subsequently lead to updated results in the expected cash flow, making the investment viable. One of the ways to evaluate a project under an uncertain scenario is to use the Real Options model as a strategic complement to cash flow analysis. This article presents an application to calculate the value of the expansion option for the Guarulhos international airport. For the models of uncertainty related to passenger load and flight volume, the value of the expansion option using the Black-Scholes-Merton model is calculated. The article concludes with the recommendation for the expansion to be carried out on a 4-year horizon, which in this period results in a positive strategic NPV, in addition to optimizing the utilization of the airport’s terminal capacity.

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Does Writing Down Goodwill Imperil a CEO’s Job?

We find that accounting charges for goodwill impairment, which imply a deterioration in the capabilities of acquired assets to generate expected cash flows, provide useful indicators of CEO underperformance. We examine 5,990 firms that completed acquisitions and investigate the relation between CEO turnover and goodwill impairment during 2002–2016. The results show that the size of a goodwill impairment charge is positively associated with forced, but not voluntary, CEO turnovers. This implies that goodwill impairment provides information before CEO changes occur. We also find that unexpected goodwill impairment is more informative than expected good-will impairment and is associated with forced CEO turnover. The association between goodwill impairment and forced CEO turnover varies with audit quality, suggesting the perceived reliability of accounting information influences CEO retention decisions. Given that the FASB may eliminate annual goodwill impairment testing (FASB, 2019a), research addressing the informativeness of goodwill impairment charges is timely.

The Effect of Voluntary Disclosure on Investment Inefficiency

Firms' ability to voluntarily disclose or conceal information may affect their investment decisions. In particular, voluntary disclosure in the presence of uncertainty about information endowment (a la Dye 1985) induces firms to choose the riskier among projects with equal expected returns (Ben-Porath et al. 2017). We study multi-stage investment decisions in which the firm's manager first chooses between projects with different riskiness and later may privately learn additional information about the technology of the chosen project. If informed, the firm can voluntarily disclose the new information to the market. Finally, based on the available information the manager determines the scale of the investment. If uninformed, the manager cannot tailor the investment scale to the realized technology. The resulting decrease in expected cash flow is higher for a riskier project. We study how a manager, who cares about both the firm's stock price (myopic incentive) and the long-term cash flow, optimally chooses the project and the voluntary disclosure decision, and how the investment efficiency varies with managerial myopia and information environment. As expected, managerial myopia always (weakly) decreases overall investment efficiency. However, information environment (the probability of obtaining information) may have a non-monotonic effect on overall investment efficiency. We extend the base model to allow for costly information acquisition and show that main results still hold.

Investment Appraisal and the Choice between Continuous and Discrete Cash Flow Discounting

The vast majority of corporate finance textbooks presents the problem of investment decisions considering discrete cash flows at the end of each period. However, on several occasions, this assumption does not fit the facts, as in the case of the revenues of large retailers, which tend to be generated almost continuously, instead of at the end of each year. In this paper, we compare the net present value of a typical investment considering both a discrete distribution of expected cash flows and a continuous one. We show that the differences observed depend upon the behavior of the function that describes the cash flows and upon the capital cost used to discount the values. Differences tend to be higher if higher capital costs are used. As a result, riskier projects are more sensitive to the right choice of the cash flow distribution to be used in its appraisal and no method can be considered, a priori, better than the other, as operational, fiscal and accounting aspects may make continuous or discrete cash flows more appropriate to describe practical realities. Thus, the article contributes to better supporting investment decisions and to enriching teaching material addressing the subject of investment decisions.

Proposed the pricing model as an alternative Islamic benchmark

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to find applicable Islamic pricing benchmarks (IPBs) instead of the market interest rates which are currently used in Islamic finance as benchmark.Design/methodology/approachThe suggested model (Islamic pricing benchmark model (IPBM)) obviously reveals the feasibility and practical effectiveness of a substitute to London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and as an evaluator tool to suggested investment projects. The model is a suggested mechanism which could be used as an alternative choice to the conventional borrowing based on the forbidden Riba or on interest. The suggested IPBM depends on estimating the rate of return for any project on consideration of the cash flows in future which is expected to be relative to the invested capital.FindingsThe IPBM approach might be applied to financial tools, where the fund owner bears the loss since it is not because of negligence. An instrument to help identify the investment for target rates of return (as an alternative choice to LIBOR) to identify a breakeven point based on expected cash flows for the project to be financed instead of based on seeking the indicators of interest or Riba (as LIBOR). This feature of the IPBM model as an Islamic benchmark renders it as a Shariah pricing mechanism for the Islamic financial products.Practical implicationsThe IPBM could be used as a financial instrument to assist in identifying the investment for the target return rates to determine a breakeven point based on expected cash flows for the project to be funded instead of being based on seeking the interest indicators or Riba (as LIBOR). This feature as an Islamic benchmark is considered as a Shariah pricing mechanism for the Islamic financial products. In particular, the proposed model incorporates the Shariah parameters. In that, it is hoped that the Islamic financial instruments will be more comprehensive in their Shariah compliance and thereby may bring more credibility to the Islamic financial system in general.Originality/valueThis paper highlights several important issues related to the IPBMs in Islamic financial institutions which are not widely discussed among researchers. This study contributes to finding an alternative IPB for the Islamic financial products which is currently using the conventional interest rate (LIBOR) as its benchmark. The current study provides empirical evidence for the possibility of relying on the IPBM as an Islamic benchmark to price Islamic financial transactions.

Valuation of an investment project in research and development in the pharmaceutical industry

<p>In this paper, the evaluation of the investment project in research and development for the innovation and of great impact in the pharmaceutical industry is presented. The project evaluation is done through an American type real call option, based on binomial trees incorporating the expected volatility of the expected cash flows in order to determine the benefit of postponing the project three years, providing flexibility to investors in their decision making. Besides, in the valuation of a real option associated with the project, fuzzy sets theory is incorporated in the process of assigning possibilities to the branches of a tree. The value of the American type real call option to postpone the project are between 24.83 % and 51.22% of the investment, and the value of real option, using fuzzy logic is between 9.91% and 23.13% of the investment in a pessimistic scenario, and of the 10.04% and 39.08% of investment in an optimistic scenario, and for a experts scenario the option premium is between 10.00% and 26.91% of the investment, these are better results.</p>

The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company

We study asset pricing over the longue durée using share prices and net dividends from the Bazacle company of Toulouse, the earliest documented shareholding corporation. The data extend from the firm’s foundation in 1372 to its nationalization in 1946. We find an average dividend yield of 5% per annum and near-zero long-term, real capital appreciation. Stationary dividends and stock prices enable us to directly study how prices relate to expected cash flows, without relying on a rate of return transformation. A reduced-form asset pricing model with persistent dividends and a time-varying risk correction is not rejected by the data.

How Investment Risk Evolves with Horizon

This paper investigates how the nature of risk changes as investment horizon lengthens, and what it means for investors. Accumulated wealth is analyzed in terms of four drivers: expected return, cash flow innovations, discount rate innovations, and reinvestment rates. This perspective highlights how investors with short horizons are justified in primarily focusing on the drivers of price fluctuations, which include changes in both discount rates and market expectations for future cash flows. In contrast, long-term investors should pay particular attention to the initial long-term expected return being offered by the market, whether expected cash flows will be actually realized, and reinvestment opportunities. How the relative riskiness of equities, bonds and cash may vary with horizon is also discussed, including highlighting why fixed income may not be a low risk asset class over longer horizons.

Investor tastes: Implications for asset pricing in the public debt market

Some firms create innovative financial debt and equity products to attract specific investor tastes (i.e., non-monetary preferences unrelated to expected cash flows). Innovations can be costly, but they may also widen a firm's investor base, leading to a reduction in the cost of capital. Prior research is inconclusive about whether tailoring financial products to meet specific investor tastes affects asset pricing, which I posit stems from a lack of consensus on which assets satisfy a particular taste. My research design, however, avoids this ambiguity by testing the relation between asset pricing and an objectively identified investor taste—a taste for Shariah-compliant investments, which is satisfied via Islamic Finance. Using Malaysian data, I estimate price differences between conventional and Shariah-compliant bonds over an eight-year period (2005 to 2013). I find that an investor taste for Shariah-compliant bonds significantly affects bond pricing. These results hold even after controlling for issuer and issuance characteristics, including differences in covenant types, as well as the possibility that price and demand may be simultaneously determined. I also find evidence that investors with a taste for Shariah-compliant bonds have a significantly different demand distribution than investors without this taste, corroborating my assertion that a preference for Shariah-compliant investments is a distinct taste. Overall, my results are consistent with investors taste affecting the cost of capital.

Strategic timing of commercial-scale tidal energy investment

The many uncertainties in tidal energy conversion combine to form a significant barrier to raising private-sector capital. Mitigation and management of risk are essential if the industry is to attract equity investors. One way to manage the risk is through investment timing. The option to time an investment has value, which can be estimated. An analysis of an invest-vs-delay decision revealed a persistent, economicallyrational incentive to delay. Further inquiry identified a strategic rationale for delaying investment in tidal energy projects, given the uncertainty still present in the undertaking. As the largest sensitivity in the value of delay is the volatility of the investment’s expected cash flows, an investigation into the prevalent uncertainties was undertaken.
 This paper summarizes the real option valuation model. It then reports on results of a qualitative study of the predominant uncertainties facing developers and conditions that would help move the industry along. Predominant uncertainties reported revolve around technology reliability; site and resource knowledge; prospects for buildout; predictability of government policy and supports; prospects of off-take agreements; and supply chain capacity and costs. These are related back to the variables in the real option pricing model. The model is relevant for companies wishing to systematically evaluate timing options and communicate project value to the investment community. It can also be used by governments to evaluate the design of policies and financial supports in a way that is consistent with the priorities of financial markets.