Expected Cash Flows Research Articles

Time-Varying Drivers of Stock Prices

This paper provides novel evidence of the time-varying roles of subjective expectations in explaining stock price variations. Cash flow expectations matter more during times of financial uncertainty and recessions, especially among the hardest-hit industries such as Telecommunications during the dot-com bubble, Financials during the Great Recession, and Healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, discount rates explain more price variations during expansionary periods. Inflation expectations, while accounting for more than half of price fluctuations in high-inflation environments, play a negligible role otherwise. Finally, factor returns tend to move against earnings growth expectations under low financial uncertainty but move in sync with earnings growth expectations when financial uncertainty is high.

Desirability of Sukuk as a New Investment Avenue: An Exploratory Study in Bangladesh

Sukuk can be a worthwhile device for meeting demand of those willing to invest in Shariah-compliant avenues of investment, which has been largely catered by Islamic banking products in Bangladesh. Using survey data collected from existing market investors, this study aims to explore the factors contributing to their choice of investment in sukuk. The risk-return preference of the investors is crucial for structuring the sukuk for issuance. Major factors contributing to the investment decision of the sukuk of surveyed participants also include confirmation of the use of proceed of the project in a Shariah-compliant way, risk-adjusted return, timely payment of the expected cash flows, tradability in the secondary market, awareness regarding the expertise, and independence of the Shariah advisors in the Shariah supervisory board (SSB). To facilitate the new instrument and utilize it for the development of the country, especially for the infrastructural development and green projects, government and other policymakers can contemplate offering government guarantee as well as tax exemptions demanded by the respondents of this study. The respondents expressed aversion to longer-term investment opportunities; rather sukuk maturity of up to five years was found desirable. Apprehension for upholding a distinct special purpose vehicle (SPV) and trustee for sukuk was revealed in the study. Although sufficient care was taken in selecting the sample, the limitation of the study is that it may not be deemed conclusive due to the lower sample size. A larger scale study may be conducted to reckon the insight of more potential investors in the market.

How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections

This paper investigates how political connections affect the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and corporate investment by utilizing Chinese non-financial firm-level data from 2003 to 2022. We find that trade policy uncertainty inhibits corporate investment by decreasing expected cash flows, increasing cash flow uncertainty, and lowering investment returns. Political connections mitigate the adverse impact of trade policy uncertainty on corporate investment by increasing government subsidies, alleviating financing constraints, and improving investment inefficiency for firms. The results are robust to changing variables measurements, alternating econometric model settings, and addressing endogeneity concerns. We also find the adverse impact of trade policy uncertainty on corporate investment is more pronounced for non-state-owned firms and small-sized firms, and the positive role of political connections benefits firms with higher financing constraints, lacking bank-firm relationships, and regions with lower institutional quality. Our findings highlight that optimizing the business environment and strengthening the communication between firms and governments are crucial for coping with unexpected policy uncertainty shocks.

Financial Modeling and Forecasting in Corporate Finance Management

"The ARIMA, VAR, and GARCH models are examined at in this corporate finance study to see how they affect strategy planning, risk management, and choosing investments. The work explains about how statistical models can be used to guess important financial factors like how the stock market will do, interest rates, and market changes. By adding predicted future cash flows to the equation for how stock prices change, our method makes models better at predicting the future and gives businesses more accurate financial predictions. The review of the study showed that the ARIMA model is very good at guessing how much a stock will return. The VAR model fit past data very well, which means it can be used to make accurate financial forecasts. There are some doubts about how accurate the GARCH model is, but it is still useful for assessing risk because it is very good at predicting market instability. Including expected cash flows in our models improved our research by giving us a clearer picture of how the changes would impact our future investment and financial plans. The results show that mixing ARIMA, VAR, and GARCH models might help in figuring out how well a company will do financially. However, there is not a single model that works perfectly for everyone. This could help decide what decisions to make, come up with plans, and lower the risks. The results of the study helped corporate finance experts to choose better strategies. Based on the data, we need to find new ways to predict the future that can adapt to changing market conditions and help businesses succeed in the long run in an always changing circumstances."

Optimal introductory pricing as an investment decision

ABSTRACT In this article, we propose a model that can be used to calculate the optimal introductory price for any product or service offered in a market. We view the introductory pricing problem as an investment decision with uncertain future cash flows. In this setup, the initial investment is the foregone income of lower period 1 revenues to generate higher expected cash flows from subsequent periods. We empirically test the model using data from a survey in the alpine skiing industry and show that it provides meaningful results.

Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach

We develop flexible local projections to quantify the relative contributions of expected discount rates and cash flows to the variation of dividend yields. Local projections enable the incorporation of large information sets, the use of monthly data along with annual data, and the consideration of time variation in the dividend yield decomposition. By expanding the set of state variables and allowing for time-varying parameters, our results show that the variation of expected discount rates remains the primary contributor to market volatility, whereas the contribution of expected cash flows is considerably smaller.

Bank's balance sheet management as a bargaining tool: Evidence from Brazilian labor strikes

We investigate whether and how banks adjust their financial positions in the wake of labor strikes. Using hand-collected data at the bank-municipality level in Brazil during 2006–2016, we find that banks significantly increase loan loss provisions, reduce loans disbursed, and hold less liquidity just before the bank labor strikes. These results are consistent with a bargaining hypothesis, suggesting that banks account for fewer current earnings, reduce expected cash flows, and reveal less cash and cash equivalents to labor unions before the anticipated strikes to counter the rent-seeking behavior of unions and strengthen their bargaining power in upcoming wage negotiations.

Disclosing to Informed Traders

ABSTRACTWe develop a model in which a firm's manager can voluntarily disclose to privately informed investors. In equilibrium, the manager only discloses sufficiently favorable news. If the manager is known to be informed but disclosure is costly, the probability of disclosure increases with market liquidity and the stock trades at a discount relative to expected cash flows. However, when investors are uncertain about whether the manager is informed, disclosure can decrease with market liquidity and the stock can trade at a premium relative to expected cash flows. Moreover, contrary to common intuition, public information can crowd in more voluntary disclosure.

Corporate Environmental Information Disclosure and Market Value

In the face of global environmental degradation, people are increasingly concerned about the environment. Heavy polluting enterprises, as the main emitters of pollutants, need to bear the main responsibility for environmental protection, and how to make heavy polluting enterprises pay attention to environmental information has become an important concern of society. Therefore, this paper examines the quality of environmental information disclosure and the market value of heavily polluting enterprises from the perspective of heavily polluting enterprises themselves, in order to promote the value of heavily polluting enterprises, achieve rapid development, improve public awareness to increase expected cash flows, and adapt to the pace of marketisation to promote the harmonisation of economic and social values.

EFICIÊNCIA ENERGÉTICA EM ILUMINAÇÃO PÚBLICA: ESTUDO DE CASO DO BAIRRO JARDIM SANTA FÉ

Currently, energy efficiency is considered one of the main areas of investment, both by governments and organizations, as its implementation leads to a reduction in energy consumption and consequently reduces dependence on external energy sources, which has a positive impact on economic competitiveness and social development. Within this context, public lighting becomes relevant, as it has great potential in terms of its ability to reduce consumption, largely due to the outdated systems that are still common in public thoroughfares. Thus, aiming to implement a new system through a direct replacement of lighting equipment in the Santa Fé neighborhood, in Dourados-MS, a case study was conducted to assess the financial feasibility of this project, by directly replacing low-pressure sodium vapor lamps with modern LED lamps and subsequently conducting a financial analysis using the indicators NPV, IRR, and Payback. The analysis of the expected cash flow for the acquisition of the luminaires presented positive results and indicated that the lighting system upgrade is a profitable investment. With an investment value of R$136,300.73, the net present value was R$61,245.63. Additionally, the expected internal rate of return for the investment was 22%, indicating a good return on investment. The Payback, which is the period required to recoup the investment, was estimated at 6.93 years. Based on these results, it is observed that the investment is viable and can bring considerable financial benefits.

Valuating the capital structure under incomplete information

Can higher uncertainty increase the valuation (market-to-book value) of young firms compared to more established ones? As the current market shows higher levels of uncertainty about companies’ expected cash flows and changes in firm value, the question of the fundamental convex relationship between the two becomes more relevant. This paper aims to study how cash flow uncertainty affects the capital structure/leverage of a firm over time. A simple Bayesian learning framework is employed to assess leverage ratios in the presence of parameter uncertainty about expected cash flow. This study provides an analytical solution for leverage as a function of firm age and explores the implications using numerical results. The model links market leverage with expected cash flow volatility and firm age. Young firms face uncertainty about their expected cash flows and hence their firm value. Managers continuously update their evaluation of leverage ratios when they observe realized cash flow until firms reach maturity. Therefore, the paper provides a novel explanation of why the leverage ratio for many start-ups increases over time: the resolution of uncertainty decreases upside shock expectations as the firm ages. This result is useful both for academics, who can test the formulas derived in this paper for various industries, countries, and conditions, and for practitioners, who can use them to calibrate algorithmic trading models when linking uncertainty and firm valuation.

Macroeconomic impact on the risk management of offshore wind farms

The present study aims to develop a risk model to analyse offshore wind projects based on operational and macroeconomic data. The study investigates the underlying parameters defining the project-specific risk premium attached to an offshore wind project. These parameters are modelled as stochastic variables, and a probabilistic financial analysis is conducted using Monte Carlo Simulation. To calculate an interest rate based on operational characteristics, the present study assumes that two net present value equations yielding the same result can be written where certainty equivalent cash flows discounted at the risk-free rate and b) expected cash flows discounted at the cost of capital. The project-related risk is then estimated by solving the resulting equation for the unknown cost of capital. The macroeconomic factors are also considered as they impact the uncertainty associated with revenue and operating expenditure. The model developed to calculate the cost of capital is validated by comparing it with the data obtained for publicly traded renewable energy companies worldwide. Finally, the developed model is demonstrated for a fictitious ageing offshore wind farm under different economic circumstances. The parametric study is conducted on the effect of critical project-specific parameters such as the number of offshore wind turbines, the life extension duration, and the degree of uncertainty related to cash flows.

Climate change, financial risks and reporting: distant horizons?

The notes to financial statements and, in the case of credit institutions, Pillar 3 reports complete and supplement information contained in the balance sheet and income statement. This helps to provide a better estimate of the amount and timing of expected cash flows, and of the associated risks. The climate change challenge introduces new factors that affect the materialisation of those risks, and standards are being developed, from different vantage points and by various organisations, aiming to specify the type of public information –in addition to the notes to financial statements and Pillar 3 reports –that could provide a better picture of these factors. This article presents an overview of the initiatives under way to address the disclosure of climate-related financial risks, focusing on the main international work streams promoted by the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation, the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group and the US Securities and Exchange Commission. It sets out the context and rationale behind the proposals, their current status and their main content. It also discusses the mechanisms being considered to make the initiatives interoperable and to link this type of information with that provided in the financial statements, in order to prevent fragmentation that could affect financial stability.

Corporate collaborations, decarbonization and equity value creation

PurposeOpportunities for shareholder value creation from deep decarbonization in fossil fuel and related industries may be unlocked with a permanent change in corporate governance practices. The purpose of this study is to highlight the conceptual links between corporate collaborations, decarbonization and equity value creation to enable the large-scale reallocation of funds necessary to halve carbon emissions by the end of this decade.Design/methodology/approachConsistent with shareholder value maximization, the author uses the constant dividend growth framework to show that a permanent change in corporate governance practices can impact expectations of future cash flows and required rates of return. This study includes a simulation to explore how perpetual corporate collaborations on decarbonization that influence the key equity value drivers can add value to the equity of collaborative firms.FindingsPerpetual corporate collaborations with key stakeholders focused on equity value drivers hold great potential for accelerating the reallocation of funds to low-carbon assets. Simulation results suggest that relatively small changes, especially in required rates of return, may result in substantial increases in equity values for collaborative leaders in deep decarbonization.Originality/valueThis study identifies new sources of shareholder value from long-term corporate collaborations with key stakeholders on deep decarbonization. A collaborative focus on important equity value drivers can attract capital also to hard-to-abate industries and initiate sharp cuts in carbon emissions. Corporate governance practices, thus, reformed render shareholder value creation incentive compatible with rapidly decarbonizing global supply chains, making it possible to meet climate action goals by 2030.

What Drives Firms’ Hiring Decisions? An Asset Pricing Perspective

Abstract We document that the aggregate hiring rate of publicly traded firms in the U.S. economy negatively predicts stock market returns and long-term cash flows, and positively predicts short-term cash flows. In addition, through a variance decomposition, we show that the time-series variation in the aggregate hiring rate is mainly driven by changes in discount rates and short-term expected cash flows, with no contribution from variation in long-term expected cash flows. We estimate a neoclassical dynamic model with labor market frictions and show that labor adjustment costs and time-varying risk are essential for the model to replicate the empirical patterns. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Investor Tastes: Implications for Asset Pricing in the Public Debt Market

Some firms create innovative financial debt and equity products to attract specific investor tastes (i.e., non-monetary preferences unrelated to expected cash flows). Innovations can be costly, but they may also widen a firm’s investor base, leading to a reduction in the cost of capital. Prior research is inconclusive about whether tailoring financial products to meet specific investor tastes affects asset pricing, which I posit stems from a lack of consensus on which assets satisfy a particular taste. My research design, however, avoids this ambiguity by testing the relation between asset pricing and an objectively identified investor taste—a taste for Shariah-compliant investments, which is satisfied via Islamic Finance. Using Malaysian data, I estimate price differences between conventional and Shariah-compliant bonds over an eight-year period (2005 to 2013). I find that an investor taste for Shariah-compliant bonds significantly affects bond pricing. These results hold even after controlling for issuer and issuance characteristics, including differences in covenant types, as well as the possibility that price and demand may be simultaneously determined. I also find evidence that investors with a taste for Shariah-compliant bonds have a significantly different demand distribution than investors without this taste, corroborating my assertion that a preference for Shariah-compliant investments is a distinct taste. Overall, my results are consistent with investors taste affecting the cost of capital.

Risk management in the shadow economy: Evidence from the sport betting market

I use the market for college football point spread gambling as a laboratory for assessing risk management activity among illegal firms. Offshore bookmakers employ pricing policies that reflect a book balancing objective whereas legal bookmakers seldom do so. Pricing policies that prioritize book balance lower the variance of bookmakers’ expected cash flow, but at the cost of lower profit. Due to the legal and moral hazards involved in operating an illegal enterprise, these firms rely on internal financing. Consequently, illegal bookmakers behave as mean–variance optimizers as opposed to legal bookmakers who appear to behave as profit maximizers.

Commodity risk hedging of a power producer: Case study of the Czech power market

Every power producer is facing the risk of an adverse price movement of commodities used for the power production and power itself in the meantime between cash flow planning and the actual power production. This study analyzes process of hedging the commodity market risk with usage of derivatives with financial settlement as an alternative to physical ones. For this purpose a hypothetical power producer operating a gas power unit was selected. Based on the real Czech power market data of 2019 this paper simulates expected cash flow, assesses potential risk for the producer and compares real cash flow of an unhedged position with a position hedged via futures contracts and spread options with financial settlement. For the risk evaluation Monte Carlo simulation and value at risk methods are used. As the most effective way to hedge the market risk of 2019 proved itself the futures hedge with monthly hedging tenor with an alternative in a short call option position. Practical implications: The study is written in a practical approach to the market risk man- agement process so that could be applicable in any company active in the power market facing the risk of commodity price movements regardless the input commodity used for the electric- ity production. Using the data of the Czech power market of 2019 the paper presents the case of a real power market participant.

Does writing down goodwill imperil a CEO’s job?

We find that accounting charges for goodwill impairment, which imply a deterioration in the capabilities of acquired assets to generate expected cash flows, provide useful indicators of CEO underperformance. The results show that the size and presence of a goodwill impairment charge are positively associated with forced, but not voluntary, CEO turnovers. This implies that goodwill impairment provides information before CEO changes occur. We also find that goodwill impairment has incremental power to predict forced turnover when it is unexpected based on book value relative to market value of equity and when it runs counter to overall firm performance. The association between goodwill impairment and forced CEO turnover varies with audit quality, consistent with the importance of the perceived reliability of accounting information for its effect on CEO retention decisions. Given that the FASB recently considered eliminating annual goodwill impairment testing (FASB, 2022) whereas the IASB not only prefers impairment testing but is considering requiring additional related disclosures (IASB, 2020), our evidence on the informativeness of goodwill impairment charges is timely.

Asset Pricing Implications of Firms’ Government Sales Dependency

AbstractThis paper investigates the firm-level, asset pricing implications of government expenditures. Higher government sales dependency (GD), unconditional on political partisanship cycles, significantly predicts positive future returns, and a GD-weighted portfolio substantially improves the tangency portfolio’s ex post Sharpe ratio. Conditionally, the results are stronger during Republican presidencies. Higher returns do not stem from political connections or political and regulatory risks. The underlying economic channel is higher expected cash flow from increased profitability. Atypical provisions of government contracts and information asymmetry likely drive higher profit margins. A risk versus a mispricing analysis elicits more convincing evidence for mispricing as an explanation for abnormal returns. (JEL G18, G38, H50, H57, H72)Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.