Expansionary Monetary Policy Research Articles

Analyzing the dynamics of monetary policy and economic growth in Ethiopia: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Numerous studies conducted by various scholars have aimed to ascertain the impact of monetary policy on economic growth. However, these empirical investigations have not reached a unanimous consensus. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of monetary policy. To address this objective, this study employed ARDL and error correction model (ECM) based on annual data from 1993 to 2022. Granger causality test was also employed to check the direction of causal effects of one variable on the other variable. All required pre and post estimation tests were performed and verified that the model was statistically viable. The study revealed that, in the short run, deposit interest rate, reserve required amount, and open market operation have positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, money supply has negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. In the long run, money supply has positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, deposit interest rate and reserve required have negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. To sum up, in the short run, contractionary monetary policy was promising, and in the long run, expansionary monetary policy was favorable for economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows that there is bidirectional causality between monetary policy and economic growth; except there was a unidirectional relationship between deposit interest rate and economic growth. Ultimately, this research suggests the following policy recommendation: for short-term economic enhancement, it is advisable for the government to opt for a contractionary monetary policy rather than an expansionary one. On the other hand, for long-term economic improvement, an expansionary monetary policy is more favorable than a contractionary one.

The impact of the interest rate on industrial production during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic

The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth in developed and developing countries was analyzed during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Panel data analysis was implemented for the monthly period between January 2002 and December 2020. The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries in all periods. Moreover, during the 2008 financial crisis, the relationship between the real interest rate and industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries. However, the effect of the real interest rate was stronger in developed countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth has been much stronger than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Its effect has also been more significant in developed countries. The result indicates that during the crisis and the pandemic, a decrease in the real interest rate plays an important role in stimulating industrial production. Pulling the real interest rate down can be an effective tool for promoting growth and can lessen negative consequences in economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, as the inflation rate is very low in developed countries, the risk of depreciation in the exchange rate in developing countries can be limited following expansionary monetary policy. Hence, other alternatives such as government intervention into economic activities by fiscal policy increase in importance beside monetary policy.

U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?

This paper uses the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality method to investigate the relationship between U.S. monetary policy (UMP) and crude oil price (COP). The method addresses the limitations of ignoring the instability of coefficients in the previous literature and supports the partial equilibrium model from the perspective of the time domain, which enriches the existing literature. The finding reveals a positive effect from COP to UMP, implying that the unexpected rise in COP may push UMP from expansionary into restrictive since the rising COP increases the U.S. inflation pressure. Meanwhile, the economic evidence shows that UMP has a negative effect on COP, which implies that expansionary monetary policy increases the rising pressure on COP. This finding is consistent with the partial equilibrium model, which states that UMP specifically influences COP, including consumption channels and financial channels. Specifically, the expansionary monetary policy may reduce companies' investment costs and stimulate investment and consumption, increasing the demand for crude oil and pushing COP. Given the critical role played by the monetary policy and COP in the U.S., the detailed understanding derived from the relationship between the variables may help the investors and policymakers forecast the energy price trend and adjust the policy strategies promptly.

Impact of Short-Term Expansionary Monetary Policy on the Economy Based on the Keynesian ModelChinas Monetary Policy in the Post-Epidemic Era as an Example

Impact of Short-Term Expansionary Monetary Policy on the Economy Based on the Keynesian ModelChinas Monetary Policy in the Post-Epidemic Era as an Example

Fed’s Dual Mandate: Maximum Employment and Price Stability

Abstract In this paper, we look at the dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment) as policy objectives of the central bank (the Fed) and we test mostly the effectiveness of policy instruments on these two ultimate objectives. We start from 1978 to 2008 and then, from 2009 (the year of major changes in monetary policy) to present to measure statistically the capability of the Fed to improve the economy’s cycle and citizens’ wellbeing. OLS and VAR models and at the end some measurements of correlations and causality are used to determine the effectiveness of the policy tools on the two objective variables, price and unemployment. The empirical results show that prices have been drastically affected (inflation and bubbles) by this expansionary monetary policy for so many years, but employment has not been improved. In general, our public policies have generated a social cost that exceeds the social benefits. JEL classification numbers: E52, E58, E4, E44, C52, D6. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banks and Their Policies, Money and Interest Rates, Financial Markets and the Macro-economy, Model Evaluation and Testing, Social Welfare.

Monetary policy, threshold of profitability and dynamics of private investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

This study investigates the interactions between optimal monetary policy, investment profitability thresholds, and private sector investment dynamics within the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Analyzing data from 2000 to 2021, it employs advanced econometric models (linear, asymmetric, and threshold effect dynamic panel error correction models) to provide a nuanced understanding of the investment environment in the union. The findings reveal the confluence of low returns and high borrowing costs for private investment. Notably, this study suggests that simply pursuing an expansionary monetary policy does not offer a sufficient solution. Instead, it proposes a more accommodative stance by the Central Bank, featuring lower policy rates, to alleviate the negative impact of high credit costs on private investment and ultimately stimulate economic activity.

Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada

This paper investigates the relative importance and effect of conventional and unconventional Canadian monetary policy surprises on housing prices. Using a credible approach to identify structural monetary policy shocks in Canada and a comprehensive Bayesian VAR model to analyze their effects on financial and macroeconomic variables, we find that both conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing shocks have a significant and persistent effect on housing prices in Canada. However, the inflationary effect of a quantitative easing shock is more pronounced than that of an easing target monetary policy surprise. Specifically, the peak effect of a 25-basis point expansionary conventional monetary policy shock is a 2.30% increase in real housing prices while a comparable quantitative easing surprise leads to a peak of 4.56% increase in real housing prices. We conclude that expansionary monetary policy in various forms has had significant inflationary effects on Canadian housing prices. But quantitative easing surprises stand out as the most prominent contributory factor to the escalating Canadian real estate price. Quantitative easing impact consistently outweighs the effects of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks.

Cross-border regulatory spillovers and macroprudential policy coordination

We develop a core–periphery model with financial frictions and cross-border banking to assess the magnitude of regulatory spillovers and the gains from macroprudential policy coordination. A core global bank lends to its affiliates in the periphery and banks in both regions are subject to risk-sensitive capital regulation. Following an expansionary monetary policy in the core, a countercyclical response in capital requirements in that region induces the global bank to increase cross-border lending. We calculate welfare gains associated with countercyclical capital buffers under a range of policy regimes, including independent policymaking, full coordination, and reciprocity—a regime in which capital ratios set in the core are imposed on the global bank’s affiliates abroad. One of our key results is that, even when regulatory spillovers are strong, reciprocity can make all parties better off if regulators attach a sufficient weight to financial stability considerations. With a standard, utility-based welfare criterion, reciprocity may also perform better than independent policymaking when regulatory spillovers are weak.

Interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies

This work aims to investigate the behavior of financial agents in a complex setting where they interact and learn about the environment. Using the bottom-up approach of agent-based models, we simulate a situation where banks, depositors, a central bank, firms, and a clearing house compose an artificial financial system under different scenarios regarding monetary and macroprudential policy instances and emerging and developed countries realities. Banks are able to learn from the outcomes and endogenously set the market interest rate. The main conclusions are: with regard to the credit market, (i) policies reinforce each other's effects on credit supply when they are both restrictive. Regarding banks' risk-taking behavior, (ii) expansive monetary policy increases banks' loans and portfolio risk. Finally, (iii) restrictive instances in both policies, while promoting more capital and less risk in the balance sheet, are able to reduce risk to some extent. If combined in the right way, these policies may improve overall system stability.

The Effect of Global Monetary Policy Changes on the Financial Strategy of International Companies

In the interconnected global economy, the financial strategies of international corporations play a crucial role in navigating the dynamic landscape shaped by various factors, including monetary policies set by central banks worldwide. This narrative explores the intricate interplay between global monetary policy changes and the financial strategies of multinational corporations, investigating how shifts in these policies reverberate across borders, impacting corporate decision-making, risk management, and performance. Over recent decades, significant transformations in monetary policy frameworks have occurred, driven by evolving economic paradigms, financial crises, and geopolitical dynamics. Central banks have deployed a range of tools, from conventional inflation targeting to unconventional measures like quantitative easing, to stabilize economies and stimulate growth. However, the effectiveness and unintended consequences of these policies transcend domestic boundaries, permeating the international financial system and shaping the strategic imperatives of multinational corporations. The impact of global monetary policy changes on international companies' financial strategies is substantial. U.S. monetary policy shocks notably affect foreign firms, especially those with extensive global production linkages and financial constraints. Financial globalization has made domestic financial conditions more vulnerable to external shocks, reinforcing the case for price stability as an optimal monetary rule. The volatility of foreign currency exchange rates significantly affects international budgeting, while multinationals with foreign involvement exhibit lower leverage ratios and rely more on short-term borrowing. One primary channel through which global monetary policy changes influence international companies is by altering financing costs and access to capital. Changes in interest rates and liquidity conditions affect borrowing costs for firms operating across borders, impacting investment decisions, capital allocation, and capital structure optimization. Additionally, these changes induce currency fluctuations and volatility, necessitating robust currency risk management strategies to safeguard revenues and mitigate exchange rate exposure. Furthermore, global monetary policy changes affect asset prices, financial markets, and investor sentiment, shaping the risk-return dynamics faced by international companies. Expansive monetary policies often fuel asset price inflation and influence investment strategies, while abrupt policy shifts can trigger market dislocations and liquidity constraints. Beyond financial markets, monetary policy changes influence macroeconomic variables, such as economic growth, inflation, and trade patterns, shaping international companies' operating environments and strategic decisions. In conclusion, the interconnectedness of global financial markets accentuates the importance of agility, flexibility, and strategic foresight for multinational corporations in navigating the impact of monetary policy changes on their financial strategies and overall performance.

Household Income, Portfolio Choice, and Heterogeneous Consumption Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks

AbstractThis paper quantifies the roles played by income‐level heterogeneity in the response of consumption to monetary policy shocks using U.S. household data. We show empirically that the response of consumption to expansionary monetary policy shocks is larger for high‐income households than for low‐income households. Empirical facts related to household characteristics suggest two channels: the presence of illiquid assets and heterogeneity in government transfers. Motivated by these empirical findings, we develop a model that incorporates illiquid assets and heterogeneity in government transfers to quantify the importance. Simulations based on the model indicate that the presence of illiquid assets, whose return increases in response to expansionary monetary shocks, is essential for explaining the heterogeneous consumption response.

Does Nigeria’s Growth in Education Increase with Expansionary Monetary Policy?

This study investigated whether expansionary monetary policy contributed to Nigeria’s educational growth through cointegration using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method for the years 1981–2021. The bounds tests indicate that the variables of interest are long-term correlated. The corresponding equilibrium correction supported the existence of a long-term relationship. The findings also show that, in the short run, there is no Granger causality between interest rates, inflation, and education growth. Empirical analysis reveals a highly significant relationship between these macroeconomic variables and the growth of education. Furthermore, the findings show that the high interest rate won’t have a significant impact on low-income Nigerians because Nigeria’s private sector receives relatively little domestic credit. The paper recommends that the government develop and implement policies that ensure favourable interest rates for financing education. This could entail offering grants, scholarships, or low-interest student loans in order to increase the accessibility and affordability of education.

Climate change and the influence of monetary policy in China

ABSTRACT We investigate whether climate change affects the efficiency of monetary policy. We use temperature shocks, calculated as temperature deviations from historical average temperatures, to proxy climate change, and utilize a threshold vector autoregression model (TVAR) to estimate the impact of expansionary and tight monetary shocks on economic output under high and low regimes of temperature shocks. Our results characterize a climate change regime-dependent monetary policy. Expansionary monetary policy is less efficient and the negative impact of tight monetary policy is enhanced, when climate change is severe. The results can be explained by the climate-induced credit constraint of commercial banks. Higher temperature shocks lead to increases in banks’ non-performing loan ratios, which results in larger credit constraints of banks. Banks tend to be more prudent in credit expansion, and the bank credit channel of monetary policy transmissions is weakened.

What explains the recovery speed of financial markets from banking crises?

Less is studied about the determinants of the impact of banking crises on the recovery speed of financial markets. In this paper, based on the members from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), we measure the recovery speed of financial markets from banking crises by financial stress index (FSI). Then the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis methodology is applied to depict the stylized features of the recovery speed of financial markets. Further, the Cox proportional hazards model is introduced to investigate the effect of a variety of influencing factors on the recovery speed of financial markets from banking crises. The results indicate that certain factors, such as stationary macroeconomic environment, sound government finance, stable exchange rate regime, moderately open financial market, global financial market with high panic prior to banking crises, and expansionary monetary policy with the price rule after banking crises, contribute to fast recovery of financial markets.

Has Japan Failed? Examining the role of the BOJ in post-crisis Japan

Abstract: Over the last 3 decades, Japan has suffered from persistent economic malaise which are without precedent in economic history, and as interesting as the circumstances leading to the demise of Japan as a major economic power are, they are but secondary to the mystery of the constant failure of measures to alleviate the situation. The question that this paper will attempt to answer, with the aid of advanced econometric tools is why the expansionary monetary policy measures taken by the Bank of Japan genuinely failed to stimulate the Japanese economy? The hypothesis I would like to outline is that the Bank of Japan DID fail to ameliorate the economic situation in Japan, due to several shortcomings such as a constant misunderstanding of the economic climate, the sudden drop in effective demand due to the emergence of Asian competitors, and the flawed policy of continually supporting insolvent banks.

Non-deposit liability and bank risk-taking: International evidence

We conduct a comprehensive analysis using data from 9,724 commercial banks across 97 countries from 2002 to 2022 to investigate the impact of banks’ non-deposit liabilities on their risk-taking. Our findings reveal that an increase in the proportion of non-deposit liabilities triggers amplified bank risk-taking. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive impact of non-deposit liabilities on bank risk-taking is more pronounced in banks with high reserves and high core tier 1 ratios. During periods of expansionary monetary policy, banks exhibit greater risk-taking in response to increased non-deposit liabilities. Moreover, we ascertain that the expansion in non-deposit liabilities can erode bank profitability by boosting risk-taking.

Stock returns and monetary policy stance

This paper investigates the structural relationships between monetary policy and stock returns. We build an asset pricing model incorporating a standard Taylor rule into a consumption-CAPM framework. Our model quantitatively explains the negative risk premium of expansionary monetary policy. As monetary policy plays a role of insurance, (expansionary) monetary policy beta is negatively related to covariances of returns with output gap and inflation theoretically and empirically. In addition, while systematic responses mainly account for the negative risk premium, pure monetary policy shocks have little influence under plausible calibrations. We also provide theoretical predictions on how the slope of the Phillips curve and the response parameters of monetary policy affect the cross-section of returns.

Defending the Austrian Interpretation of the 1920-21 Depression: Reply to Borazan

In Newman (2016), I argued that the Federal Reserve’s monetary expansion in 1919 generated an inflationary boom that forced it to raise interest rates, thereby precipitating a sharp contraction in 1920. Recovery began because businesses cut nominal wages, and this occurred before the Fed’s 1921–22 easing reached the economy. In contrast, Borazan (2023) attributes the boom to government spending and speculative inventory investment and the recovery to an “administrative decree” about the return to expansionary monetary policy, among other contributors. This reply argues, first, that Borazan’s analysis ignores the role of the Fed’s expansionary policy in causing the boom and the resultant inflation. Second, I show the inapplicability of Borazan’s administrative decree and revisit the importance of market-based wage cuts in generating the recovery.

Research on the Impact of Monetary Policies on Economic Development: Perspective from the United States

During COVID-19, the Fed applied several policies to boost the economy, including tax cuts and lower interest rates. In March of 2022, the Fed began raising the interest rates as a response to the inflationary economy, which put a full stop to the COVID-19 period economically. The series of monetary policies used by the Fed have captured widespread attention since it influences different markets and sectors. This essay examines the effects of monetary policies used by the Fed on different markets by looking at the data published by the Fed and the banks, and also include evaluation made by experts in news and essays. This paper can conclude that expansionary monetary policies to some extent, are considered helpful for lowering the inflation rate, however, they will cause some destruction to the housing market, banks, investors, and the whole global economy, the author can see this through criticism and data from the housing market, the bankruptcy of some banks and different industries. This essay includes both the positive and negative effects of a few common monetary policies and makes an overall suggestion.

A Comparison of the Macroeconomic Systems in China and Thailand under Impossible Triangle Theory

Amidst the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the contrasting experiences of China and Thailand shed light on the pivotal role played by capital controls in economic resilience. This study aims to employ a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods, as well as comparative analysis, to delve deeper into the dynamics at play. The central argument posited here revolves around China's effective employment of capital controls, which facilitated the preservation of a fixed exchange rate regime and the seamless execution of an expansionary monetary policy. These measures shielded China from the adverse repercussions of the financial crisis. In contrast, Thailand's excessive capital liberalization and unwavering commitment to a fixed exchange rate system stripped the country of its ability to independently manage monetary policy. Consequently, Thailand suffered devastating consequences in the wake of the crisis.