U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?

Abstract

This paper uses the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality method to investigate the relationship between U.S. monetary policy (UMP) and crude oil price (COP). The method addresses the limitations of ignoring the instability of coefficients in the previous literature and supports the partial equilibrium model from the perspective of the time domain, which enriches the existing literature. The finding reveals a positive effect from COP to UMP, implying that the unexpected rise in COP may push UMP from expansionary into restrictive since the rising COP increases the U.S. inflation pressure. Meanwhile, the economic evidence shows that UMP has a negative effect on COP, which implies that expansionary monetary policy increases the rising pressure on COP. This finding is consistent with the partial equilibrium model, which states that UMP specifically influences COP, including consumption channels and financial channels. Specifically, the expansionary monetary policy may reduce companies' investment costs and stimulate investment and consumption, increasing the demand for crude oil and pushing COP. Given the critical role played by the monetary policy and COP in the U.S., the detailed understanding derived from the relationship between the variables may help the investors and policymakers forecast the energy price trend and adjust the policy strategies promptly.