Expansion Of Towns Research Articles

Simulation study of urban expansion under ecological constraint—Taking Yuzhong County, China as an example

Urban expansion is the spreading process of urban construction land overcoming ecological resistance. In this paper, we introduced relative resistance factors on different source levels in the minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR), and considered the inherent constraints and epitaxial ecological resistance on town expansion. Then, we constructed an improved minimal cumulative resistance (IMCR) for urban expansion simulation. The ecological resistance surface of Yuzhong county was formed to simulate the spatial distribution and boundary of town expansion to 2030. The results show: (1) the spatial difference of comprehensive ecological resistance in Yuzhong County is significant, which is decreasing from south to north. The urban expansion is affected by the ecological environment. In addition, the ecological constraints of urban expansion are higher in the areas with better ecological quality. (2) When the ecological constraints are high, the simulated area of urban expansion is smaller than the planned area. On the contrary, when the ecological constraints are low, the simulated area of urban expansion is larger than the planned area. The urban expansion boundary under the planning scenario is relatively straight, simple and rigid, and the town boundary under the ecological constraint scenario is a curve, complex and irregular. (3) The simulation results based on the IMCR model are more in line with reality and reflect the requirements of ecological protection. From the perspective of urban expansion scale and intensity control, the simulation results are more in line with actual needs and reflect the direction of policy regulation.

Councils, Councillors and Profiteers: Urban Land Speculation and Contestations in Southern Rhodesia in the 1940s

Studies of the land question in Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) have demonstrated that land was an object of intense speculation. However, they have predominantly considered speculation on rural and agrarian land to the exclusion of urban areas. This article contributes to and expands on this scholarship by considering the largely missing urban dimension. It examines conflict between speculators and municipalities over urban land in Southern Rhodesia in the 1940s. While making reference to the situation across the colony, it relies on the specific case of the town of Que Que (now Kwekwe) to argue that excesses of land speculation hamstrung the expansion and development of towns by distorting land prices. When the privately owned Naseby Estate was put on the market in September 1947, speculators, working with some councillors, exploited legislative, administrative and bureaucratic loopholes to steal a march on Que Que municipality, which wanted to purchase the land directly. They subsequently offered the land back to the municipality at a substantially raised price. Largely employing primary data, the article demonstrates that, once government bodies indicated interest in a piece of land, landowners would increase the price sharply, or speculators would buy the land specifically for resale to public institutions. The article also considers the questions raised and strategies imagined by concerned councillors and other interest groups in the wake of Que Que municipality’s loss. It not only contributes to scholarship on colonial land and urban development but also reveals less discussed tensions and contradictions within the settler society.

The Impacts of Urban Expansion on Livelihoods of the Surrounding Rural Society: The Case of Tefki Town, Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Finfinne

Urbanization is recently a rising trend seen all over the world, mostly in an upsetting rate in developing countries. Similarly, most towns in Ethiopia are recently becoming expanded towards the adjacent rural societies. The Expansions of these towns were resulted in the consuming and conversion of farm land to urban land uses and affects the agrarian livelihoods. This study is intended to assess the impacts of urban expansion on livelihoods of the society surrounding rural kebeles of Tefki town from the year 2015-2019. Specifically, the study focused on evaluating the effects of town expansion on the farmers (households) in terms of income, the opportunities of the affected households secured from the town expansion and compensation process. Hence, 166 expansion affected households were selected through snowball sampling, and also (5) officials from different institutions were purposively taken for key informant interview while (7) respondents from the affected farmers were selected for interview. Thus, the primary data were collected using questionnaires and interviews. Secondary data have been also used to triangulate and supplement the first hand information. The collected data were analyzed by using SPSS version 20. The result showed that Tefki town rapidly expanded during the last five years as a result of population growth and industrialization. This expansion made significant effects on livelihoods of the surrounding farmers. Although they secured access to certain services, it was also brought effects like loss of agricultural land and other assets including grazing land which resulted in change of their livelihoods, and unfair compensation. This expansion has made the households of the surrounding area to lose farm land on which their livelihood used to depend on for long period of time. Every farmer has been made to lose an average of 1 hectare of their owned farm land. The grazing land of the area has been decreased because of town expansion, and thus made farmers to lack enough place of grazing for their livestock. On the other side, the compensation was not made on time for the affected farmers. The study also found out that the compensation given to the farmers was not fair, and too inadequate to sustain the livelihoods of the affected households. Therefore, a detailed potential effect assessment study should be carried out by the government and other stakeholders prior to implementing urbanization programs so as to minimize the adverse effects of urban expansion.

MODEL PENGENDALIAN KEMISKINAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN DIVERSIFIKASI USAHA, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALDS (SDGS) DAN ECONOMIC VALUE (STUDI PADA DAERAH PEMEKARAN DI SUMATERA UTARA)

This research has the goal of providing input to economic divesifikasi models which are the most consistent in increasing economic value and decrease poverty in the district town expansion North Sumatra Province. Provide input model Sustaianble Development Goals (SDGs) are the most supportive in the increase in economic value and alleviating poverty in the county town expansion North Sumatra Province. Prove empirically the performance of the economy which interact strongly supported the decline in poverty in the county townof the expansion in North Sumatra Province. This research uses 16 sample extraction area in North Sumatra. The first model of poverty alleviation through diversified value-added business community in meeting the needs of the community's life while the second model to determine what variables as policy recommendations for alleviating poverty in the County the expansion North Sumatra Province. The first model requires primary data while the second model requires data skunder time series starting in 2000 up to 2013. data analysis using two models, namely Structural Equation Models (SEM) and Vector Autoregression (VAR). Results of the study and this analysis gives an overview and prove the real poverty mapping in areas of expansion, poverty reduction actions based on the poverty mapping, control variables are very urgent in affects poverty, and controlling poverty continuously.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Vegetation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2018

In this study, MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), TRMM3B43 precipitation, and MOD11A2 land-surface temperature (LST) data were used as data sources in an analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation changes and ecological environmental quality in the Huaihe River basin, China, from 2003 to 2018. The Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and the Theil–Sen slope test were combined for this analysis; then, when combined with the results of the MK mutation test and two introduced indexes, the kurtosis coefficient (KU) and skewness (SK) and correlations between NDVI, precipitation (TRMM), and land-surface temperature (LST) in different time scales were revealed. The results illustrate that the mean NDVI in the Huaihe River basin was 0.54. The annual NDVImax curve fluctuations for different land cover types were almost the same. The main reasons for the decrease in or disappearance of vegetation cover in the Huaihe River basin were the expansion of towns and impact of human activities. Furthermore, vegetation cover around water areas was obviously degraded and wetland protections need to be strengthened urgently. On the same time scale, change trends of NDVI, TRMM, and LST after abrupt changes became consistent within a short time period. Vegetation growth was favored when the KU and SK of TRMM had a close to normal distribution within one year. Monthly TRMM and LST can better reflect NDVI fluctuations compared with seasonal and annual scales. When the precipitation (TRMM) is less than 767 mm, the average annual NDVI of different land cover types is not ideal. Compared with other land cover types, dry land has stronger adaptability to changes in the LST when the LST is between 19 and 22.6 °C. These trends can serve as scientific reference for protecting and managing the ecological environment in the Huaihe River basin.

The Long Road to Sainthood: Indian Christians, the Doctrine of Preparation, and the Halfway Covenant of 1662

AbstractThis essay explores the origins and expansion of New England Praying Towns in the context of the ongoing theological and religious debates of 1646–1674. This period spawned significant debates regarding the extent of the Abrahamic covenant, the requirements for church membership, and the nature of conversion. The ministers present at the Synod of 1662 gathered to settle the question of “extended baptism,” an issue where Indian and English concerns intersected. Reformers who promoted a generational vision of church membership emphasized the efficacy of spiritual preparation for younger generations and the power of a broader and more inclusive church covenant. This development benefitted Algonquians living in Praying Towns because theological preparation validated efforts to catechize and instruct Praying Indians in religious matters. Likewise, a broadening vision of church membership enabled some colonists to consider the possibility that Indians might be included within their religious communities. These projects, launched before the formalization of the Halfway Covenant in 1662, presented a tangible example of spiritual preparation in practice and served to validate the conversionary process within the colony at large. English observers found Indian conversion impressive (or reacted with intense skepticism) because most theologians considered Indians unlikely converts, especially in larger numbers. For Algonquians demonstrating an interest in English spirituality, church membership represented a degree of parity with their New England brethren. Tracing the development of New England missions, the pathway to church membership, and the debates on both missions and extended baptism reveals both the possibilities and limits to the inclusion of Indian Christians within New England's religious institutions.

Topography and Geomorphological units impact on the Saidsadiq town expansion ,by Using Geographical information System

The main goal of this investigation is to indicate the influnce of Topographic and Geomorphogical Unit on expansion of Saidsadiq town from (1965 to 2019 ) , and analyse the influnce of the slope and landform upon the directive expansion of the town , with signifying the factors of expansion the town towards the directions dependens on the map of expension with satellite images which have been recieved from (NASA-G DEM VERSION) on (USGS) site with Digital Elevation Model (DEM) by resolution (30 m) on the reaserch area . finally the investigation concludes a set of conclusions and results including the land form limited and restricted the directions of expansions of the town and The City taken the shape of Star ,expandin most of the towns area on the sediment pedimont due to easiness of building houses and connection services upon it.

Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques

As a result of the socioeconomic transformation, the rapid urban expansion of cities and towns in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has predominately led to tremendous pressure on the limited natural resources and loss of productive lands. Indeed, the spatial patterns of urbanisation and their impacts on mountain resources and environment have received little attention, particularly in Oman. Predicting urban growth in the mountainous cities has the potential to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth patterns and the mountain topography. This study aims to analyse spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) (2008–2018) and simulate urban expansion (2008–2038) in Nizwa city, Al Dakhliyah governorate, Oman. Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov and geospatial techniques were utilised to assess and project urban growth and land cover changes. The analysis was based on three maps of LULC at equal intervals derived from satellite imageries: Landsat TM for 1998, 2008 and 2018, along with topographic spatial layers (elevation, aspects, and terrain slopes) derived from the ASTER digital elevation model. In addition, other spatial parameters (population density, proximity to urban centres, and proximity to major roads,) were incorporated in the simulation process. The findings revealed that the actual LULC change during 2008–2018 was 12,014 ha of net urban growth (418.5 % change), while the simulated change was expected to be 14,985 ha by 2028, with a total of 37,465 ha increase in the built-up area and urban growth by 2038. Although the topographic variability will control LULC changes, the urban expansion overly will occupy the arable land across the valleys along with the flat areas. During the next two decades, the built-up areas will dominant, with a large percentage of vacant land (net loss 12,813 ha) and vegetation cover (net loss 35 ha) will be gradually converted into residential land use. The output of the simulations in this research could serve not only as spatial guidelines for monitoring future trends of LULC dynamics, but also address the threats and deteriorates of urban sustainability in the Omani mountainous cities. Furthermore, identifying bare soils and vegetation areas that are susceptible to urbanisation is of value for the national strategy of future urban planning in Oman.

Land Use Changes in a Peri-Urban Area and Consequences on the Urban Heat Island

The effect of urbanization on microclimatic conditions is known as “urban heat islands”. In comparison with surrounding rural areas, urban climate is characterized by higher mean temperature, especially during heat waves and during nights. This results in a higher energy requirement for air conditioning in buildings and in a greater bioclimatic discomfort for urban populations. The reasons of this phenomena are ascribable principally to the increase of solar radiation storage and to the decrease of dissipation of water by evapotranspiration in urban environment respect to rural ones. The aim of this paper is to give a quantification of the air temperature increase due to an urbanization process. This quantification is conducted by comparing surface energy balance (incoming and outcoming radiation and turbulent fluxes) in urbanized area versus rural areas. This quantitative approach will be validated using a fluidodynamic model (Envi-Met) in a case study area representative of one among the various regional models of urban area growth. In particular, the model of expansion of small towns around big cities (2003–2008 land use changes) of a plain near-urban area in the Po Valley region (Italy) was used.

Simulated town expansion under ecological constraints: A case study of Zhangbei County, Heibei Province, China

Town expansion changes land-use type, and results in ecological and environmental issues. To minimize the influence of these problems and relieve the conflict between town development and ecological protection, future town expansion should be simulated based on the ecological priority principle. This study systematically designed and analyzed a simulated town expansion under the ecological constraints (EC) scenario in Zhangbei County (2013–2030). The performance of this scenario was assessed by comparing the influence on ecosystem service value with the urban–rural master plan (URMP) for Zhangbei County (2013–2030). The results indicate that town expansion under EC scenario has significant advantages over expansion under the URMP scenario; there are large differences in the town expansion areas. In the EC scenario, towns located in higher ecological quality areas had tighter constraints on expansion and only expanded slightly. In addition, most town boundaries in the EC scenario were curvilinear, complex, and soft, which could provide more ecological benefits than the straight, simple, and hard boundaries in the URMP scenario. The spatial evolution trend of the boundaries in the latter scenario tended to lower the comprehensive ecological constraints surface. In addition, in the EC scenario, the influence of town expansion on ecosystem service value was dramatically lower than in the URMP scenario. Town expansion was simulated under the minimum EC scenario, which could provide a new mechanism for allocating construction land based on ecological supply. The results provide reliable information for effectively relieving the conflict between town development and ecological protection and identifying boundary locations for conditional construction areas during regional planning.

ENGINEERING GEOLOGY OF ALLUVIAL DEPOSITS IN YANGON AREA

Two-thirds of the Yangon area is covered by alluvial deposits, which are weak in their strength and highly permeable. As Yangon area has undergone very rapid development and expansion, its expansion of new satellite towns is mostly built on the alluvial deposit. Engineering geology study of alluvial deposits in Yangon area is therefore needed to ascertain the nature and properties of alluvial deposits at different locations and at various depths. The distribution of alluvial deposits in Yangon starts from Kyaukmyinthar area to the Letkikkone and along the flood plain of Yangon river and Hlaing river. The alluvial deposits are categorized into valley fill, marine, and flat plain types. The most common deposit types are CL, CH, SM, SC, ML according to the Unified Soil Classification. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is performed for this research and samples collected from boreholes are tested in the laboratory. Based on the SPT value and the laboratory results, the bearing capacity calculations are made for the foundation condition. Groundwater level is noted on each bore holes for the hydrological characteristics. The ultimate bearing capacity of valley fill deposits are more than 200 kPa in Ahlon Township but the ultimate bearing capacity of most marine alluvium in Hlaingtharyar and N. Okkalarpa Townships are less than 100 kPa.

The processes of incorporation and secession of urban and suburban municipalities: The case of Poland

ABSTRACTThe aim of the article is to explain the phenomena of mergers and territorial disintegration of Polish towns and cities from three perspectives: social, economic and spatial-primal. Administrative border changes are fundamental components of local urban policy guidelines in countries that have experienced a dual history in the socialist and post-socialist periods, such as Poland. The main method of the authors research was the application of statistical and cartographic methods focused on measuring quantitative administrative changes in urban areas and their demographic effects. The scope of the research covered all towns in Poland existing in the years 1945–2018. Since the changes in the administrative boundaries of cities particularly concern the rural areas in the vicinity of large cities, the suburban municipalities surrounding urban centres were analysed too. The findings underline the deterministic role of political systems in the territorial expansion of towns and cities, and indicates their role for current planning decisions. The authors conclude that noticeable differences between two analysed periods have had at least two significant causes. First, the political and economic systems determining the changes differed, and second, each system was accompanied by differing directions of economic development and therefore also different ‘urbogenic’ forces.

Participatory scenario development process in addressing potential impacts of anthropogenic activities on the ecosystem services of Mt. Marsabit forest, Kenya

The Marsabit Forest Reserve (MFR), a green island in an arid environmental setting, generates multiple ecosystem goods and services (ES) to the local community critical for their livelihoods. The forest has been experiencing substantial land conversion for town expansion, agriculture production and settlements threatening long-term ES provision. Sustaining the forest ES under increasing anthropogenic pressures is one of the great challenges of the Marsabit forest community. We used focus group discussions in the thirteen locations around the forest and individual key informant's interviews in the identification of drivers of change and their potential impacts on ES in MFR. We used the scenario development process (SDP) in coming up with four divergent but plausible exploratory scenarios. The study established that the main ES provided by the forest was, water, fuelwood, forage (dry season grazing resource), medicinal plants and timber for construction. Stakeholders identified population pressure, unsustainable utilisation of forest resources, institutional barriers to effective resource management, land use and climate change as the main drivers impacting ES provision in the forest. Land use change and climate change were considered the most significant drivers yet the most uncertain in the future impacting ES provision in the MFR. The SDP identified four alternative future scenarios for the MFR by the year 2044 with the Marsabit we want scenario identified as the most desirable future for the sustainable supply of ES with adequate adaptation to observed changes. Stakeholders came up with a joint action plan implementation matrix for the identified scenario while mitigating the negative aspects of the alternative scenarios. The results support the need for participatory land use planning that takes into to account the growing threat of climate change to natural forest systems.

The Solutions of Municipal Waste Management and Wastewater Treatments Utilization in the Urban Environment Protection—The Case of Poznan City

Everyday obviously there is lot of waste producing in a city Due to the harmful effects to humans and to the environment, how to manage the waste in the city is becoming very important under the expansion of cities and towns in the worldwide. Therefore, municipal waste management and waste water treatments are the key factors in the process of the urban sustainable developments. This paper try to analysis the current situation of the municipal waste management and wastewater treatments in the case of Poznan city from Poland as well as the solutions were listed in order to improve the waste management and the effective measures to turn waste and waste water into green energy . Furthermore, some measures e.g. biogas plant turning waste into energy, also renovation of the current waste water system also mentioned as the effective measures in the paper.

Visualizing peri-urban and rurban water conditions in Pune district, Maharashtra, India

Drinking water programs in India treat urban and rural areas separately, generally neglecting the special conditions of settlements referred to as peri-urban or rurban. We show how the historiography of peri-urban areas acquired negative connotations of poor water and sanitation services while rurban places have come to be associated with positive well-disciplined conditions. Previous research on drinking water programs has taken two paths, one of which generates rigorous qualitative case studies that criticize neoliberal policies, while the other employs larger scale quantitative methods to advance neoliberal policy reforms. This paper adopts a hybrid pragmatic approach to visualize strengths and weaknesses of water and sanitation services in urbanizing rural areas of Pune district, Maharashtra. We re-assess demographic definitions of the rural-urban dichotomy in India, distance-based criteria used in Maharashtra, and Census of India water and sanitation data. A combination of field research and GIS mapping identified four main peri-urban patterns in Pune district: (1) megacity fringe; (2) highway corridor development; (3) industrial zones; and (4) block town expansion. We show that while water supply has improved in some rurban areas, sanitation and drainage problems have not kept up. A second pattern of deficiency was observed in transitional towns of 5000 persons. Annually updated water and sanitation datasets at the national and state levels will make this pragmatic combination of GIS mapping and field research approaches valuable for visualizing peri-urban and rurban conditions at the district scale of water governance and planning in India.

Urban Geomorphology of Darbandikhan District Using GIS & RS Iraqi Kurdistan Region

Geomorphology is an important aspect for urban planning, which gives anidea about the variations in landscape/landform and indirectly facilitates inevaluating the resources of an area. In the present paper, an attempt has beenmade to study the geomorphic implications on urban expansion of Darbandikhandistrict. The study area is in Iraqi Kurdistan Region. It covers an area about(546.02 km2) with nearly (150 km) perimeter. For detailed study, multi-temporalsatellite imageries of Landsat 3, 5, 7, 8 and QuickBird were used with the aid ofArcGIS-10.2.2 and Global Mapper 13 software to compile and create databasethat provided a visual and historical perspective of the urban expansion andpracticed in the study area for the past 46 years from 1971 to 2017. Progressiveurban mapping in correlation with different thematic maps of lithology,geomorphologic units (landforms), drainage density, elevation, slope gradientand slope aspect delivers the baseline information for the planner and decisionmakers to observer/monitor and predict the patterns and future trends ofurbanization. The rate of urban growth of Darbandikhan town is 1.2 km2/decadeand at 2028 the total suitable potential area, at west of the town, will beconsumed and change to townscape if the town expansion growth rate continuedin its behavior. Hence geomorphological maps along with other thematic mapsare predictive techniques to better future forecast of urban growth that candelineate suitable area for urban development and planning of the Darbandikhantown within the district’s administrative boundary.

THE INTEGRATION OF MOSQUES AND CHURCHES TO URBAN PLANNING OF IBADAN NIGERIA: A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

In the face of the uncontrolled expansion of Nigerian towns and cities since independence, urban planners and other stakeholders have accepted that development policies for urban and rural areas have failed or have not worked as expected. Cities in Nigeria, especially, Ibadan have been observed to have changed in size, spatial organization or morphology, quality and distribution of public services and infrastructure, and in its employment base. Despite many efforts aimed at resolving the urban problems through the enactment of plethora of planning laws and regulations, the administration and implementation of these laws and regulation have been problematic, especially due to the rapid increase of religious sites (places of worship) such as churches and mosques in Ibadan. The objective of this paper is to propose a solution to the problems created by religious sites in the planning of Ibadan. The study employs a qualitative research design using survey method, with field observation as the research instrument used for data collection.

THE INTEGRATION OF MOSQUES AND CHURCHES TO URBAN PLANNING OF IBADAN NIGERIA: A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

In the face of the uncontrolled expansion of Nigerian towns and cities since independence, urban planners and other stakeholders have accepted that development policies for urban and rural areas have failed or have not worked as expected. Cities in Nigeria, especially, Ibadan have been observed to have changed in size, spatial organization or morphology, quality and distribution of public services and infrastructure, and in its employment base. Despite many efforts aimed at resolving the urban problems through the enactment of plethora of planning laws and regulations, the administration and implementation of these laws and regulation have been problematic, especially due to the rapid increase of religious sites (places of worship) such as churches and mosques in Ibadan. The objective of this paper is to propose a solution to the problems created by religious sites in the planning of Ibadan. The study employs a qualitative research design using survey method, with field observation as the research instrument used for data collection.

THE INTEGRATION OF MOSQUES AND CHURCHES TO URBAN PLANNING OF IBADAN NIGERIA: A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

In the face of the uncontrolled expansion of Nigerian towns and cities since independence, urban planners and other stakeholders have accepted that development policies for urban and rural areas have failed or have not worked as expected. Cities in Nigeria, especially, Ibadan have been observed to have changed in size, spatial organization or morphology, quality and distribution of public services and infrastructure, and in its employment base. Despite many efforts aimed at resolving the urban problems through the enactment of plethora of planning laws and regulations, the administration and implementation of these laws and regulation have been problematic, especially due to the rapid increase of religious sites (places of worship) such as churches and mosques in Ibadan. The objective of this paper is to propose a solution to the problems created by religious sites in the planning of Ibadan. The study employs a qualitative research design using survey method, with field observation as the research instrument used for data collection .

Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass, a case study in Taihe County of China

Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7% (RCP2.6 + land use), 57.2% (RCP4.5 + land use), and 56.9% (RCP8.5 + land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management.