Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Vegetation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2018

Abstract

In this study, MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), TRMM3B43 precipitation, and MOD11A2 land-surface temperature (LST) data were used as data sources in an analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation changes and ecological environmental quality in the Huaihe River basin, China, from 2003 to 2018. The Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and the Theil–Sen slope test were combined for this analysis; then, when combined with the results of the MK mutation test and two introduced indexes, the kurtosis coefficient (KU) and skewness (SK) and correlations between NDVI, precipitation (TRMM), and land-surface temperature (LST) in different time scales were revealed. The results illustrate that the mean NDVI in the Huaihe River basin was 0.54. The annual NDVImax curve fluctuations for different land cover types were almost the same. The main reasons for the decrease in or disappearance of vegetation cover in the Huaihe River basin were the expansion of towns and impact of human activities. Furthermore, vegetation cover around water areas was obviously degraded and wetland protections need to be strengthened urgently. On the same time scale, change trends of NDVI, TRMM, and LST after abrupt changes became consistent within a short time period. Vegetation growth was favored when the KU and SK of TRMM had a close to normal distribution within one year. Monthly TRMM and LST can better reflect NDVI fluctuations compared with seasonal and annual scales. When the precipitation (TRMM) is less than 767 mm, the average annual NDVI of different land cover types is not ideal. Compared with other land cover types, dry land has stronger adaptability to changes in the LST when the LST is between 19 and 22.6 °C. These trends can serve as scientific reference for protecting and managing the ecological environment in the Huaihe River basin.