Forest Expansion Research Articles

Enhancing natural carbon sinks: Simulation of land use change under different carbon market scenarios by developing an ANN-ABM model

The carbon market mechanism presents an innovative approach to achieving carbon neutrality, however, its impact on regional carbon sink enhancement remains uncertain. This paper proposes an analysis framework based on an Artificial Neural Network-Agent-Based Model (ANN-ABM) to simulate the potential contribution of carbon market mechanism in enhancing carbon sinks. Taking the case of Chongming, China, the results demonstrate significant economic potential with forest land expansion from 2010 to 2020, equivalent to 30.69 % of eco-compensation. Under scenarios introducing a carbon market, there is an increased probability of converting land to high carbon sink types. Compared to the baseline scenario, carbon prices at 1.34 US$/t and 6.27 US$/t result in additional funds of 8.94 % and 41.46 %, respectively, and increase the carbon sink by 12.52 % and 30.28 %. The findings contribute to an understanding of how the value of carbon sinks can be realized through market mechanism and offer guidance for innovative eco-compensation approaches.

Cattle and nurse trees shape subtropical forest–grassland ecotones

Abstract South American subtropical landscapes are dominated by open grasslands and mosaics of forest–grassland formations. Forests are often restricted to riverine margins with sharp forest–grassland ecotones. Understanding the mechanisms maintaining forest–grassland ecotones is important to anticipate the effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on the extent of these biomes and the ecosystem services they provide. We used a combination of field surveys and long‐term field experiments to explore the mechanisms that explain tree cover expansion at the ecotone of riverine forests and grasslands in central Uruguay, within the South American Campos. We assessed the role of tree seed dispersal and seedling establishment limitations, and experimentally tested for the effects of cattle, nurse tree cover and grasses on the recruitment of forest and grassland tree species at the forest–grassland ecotone. We found that forest expansion depends on the interplay between cattle and nurse trees. Vachellia caven trees colonize the grassland successfully and facilitate the formation of forest patches by enhancing seed accumulation and seedling establishment of forest tree species. Surprisingly, grass cover had mostly positive effects on early seedling survival of forest tree seedlings. However, cattle limits tree seedling growth and survival, especially of forest tree species. This results in a nucleated vegetation pattern of tree patches that ultimately limits forest expansion. Synthesis and applications. Tree cover can potentially expand on the subtropical South American grasslands. Reductions in cattle densities and increases in rainfall levels associated with climate change could facilitate forest expansion in this region.

Impacts of Forest Management‐Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

AbstractAnthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management‐induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management‐induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management‐induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management‐induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management‐induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

Combustion and energy performance of non-commercial Corymbia and Eucalyptus wood for use in cogeneration systems in Brazil

The increased representation of biomass in the Brazilian energy matrix will contribute to reducing dependence on hydroenergy and mitigating negative impacts during increasingly frequent drought periods. However, given the changing climate, it is urgent to classify and select new genotypes for the expansion of energy plantations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the energy performance and combustibility of wood from Eucalyptus and Corymbia trees to support a knowledge-based and efficient use of such woods in thermochemical conversion systems. Eight species of Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus amplifolia, E. longirostrata, E. major, and E. urophylla) and Corymbia (Corymbia citriodora, C. variegata, C. henryi, C. torelliana), which are not generally used for energy purposes, were selected at 6 years of age from experimental plantations in southeastern Brazil. Wood basic density (WBD), ash content (AC), higher heating value (HHV), fuel value index (FVI), ignition (Di), flammability (Ci) and combustion (Si) indexes were determined. The wood of E. urophylla and C. torelliana presented showed the highest and lowest FVI, respectively. Regarding combustion indexes E. longirostrata had a higher combustion index (4.00 ×107 %2/(min2°C3)), flammability (1.49 %min−1/°C2) and ignition (4.39 % min−3) while C. variegata presented the lowest values. The FVI showed correlations with the combustibility of wood. Thus, this index can be used for the rapid and reliable classification of new genetic materials for energy forests in Brazil. E. urophylla and E. longirostrata woods demonstrated better energy performance and combustion indexes, making them the most suitable species for use in cogeneration systems and candidates for the expansion of energetic forests in Brazil.

Exploring historical changes in mountain river hydrodynamics induced by human impact

During the 20th-century many mountain rivers in Europe were subjected to intensive human impacts which substantially modified their channel morphology. How these changes affected river hydrodynamics and response to floods remains uncertain. In this work, we perform hydraulic modelling using data from archival aerial photos to explore relations between hydraulic parameters of floods and human-induced channel incision occurring on the Czarny Dunajec River (Polish Carpathians) between 1964 and 2012. Data on vertical position of the channel used for two-dimensional modelling of flood flows were extracted (as Digital Elevation Models DEMs) from archival aerial photos from 1964 and 1983 and ALS (Airborne Laser Skanning)-derived DEM from 2012. Water depth, flow velocity, bed shear stress, and sediment critical diameter were modelled for four flood scenarios (2-year, 5-year, 20-year, and 50-year floods) as well as the extent of flooded area and additionally the grain size of channel sediment was calculated. The values of water depth, flow velocity, bed shear stress and sediment critical diameter increased significantly between 1964 and 1983, especially for 20-year and 50-year floods. Only the flow velocity within the floodplain zone did not increase for the two largest flood scenarios due to the expansion of riparian forest in the second half of the twentieth century. The increase in flow rate was accompanied by a progressive reduction of the extent of flooded area, especially between 1964 and 1983, as well as by increase in mean grain size of channel sediment. Between 1983 and 2012 changes in hydraulic parameters were less pronounced, and coarser and well packed channel sediment dominated on the river bed. Our work demonstrates that reconstruction of past river hydrodynamics, rather than river state at time horizons, can give essential insights into functioning of the river channel and floodplain during the intensification of human impacts after 1950s.

Predicting Land Use Changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway–Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios to Support Sustainable Planning in High-Density Urban Areas: A Case Study of Hangzhou, Southeastern China

Amidst the challenges posed by global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the structure and distribution of land use are shifting dramatically, exacerbating ecological and land-use conflicts, particularly in China. Effective land resource management requires accurate forecasts of land use and cover change (LUCC). However, the future trajectory of LUCC, influenced by climate change and urbanization, remains uncertain. This study developed an integrated multi-scenario framework by combining system dynamics and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future LUCC in high-density urban regions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)–Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results showed the following: (1) From 2020 to 2050, cultivated land, unused land, and water are projected to decrease, while construction land is expected to increase. (2) Future land use patterns exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across three scenarios. Construction land will expand in all districts of Hangzhou, particularly in the main urban areas. Under the SSP585 scenario, the expansion of construction land is most significant, while it is the least under the SSP126 scenario. (3) Distinct factors drive the expansion of different land use types. The digital elevation model is the predominant factor for the expansion of forest and grassland, contributing 19.25% and 30.76%, respectively. Night light contributes the most to cultivated land and construction land, at 13.94% and 20.35%, respectively. (4) The average land use intensity (LUI) in central urban districts markedly surpasses that in the surrounding suburban areas, with Xiacheng having the highest LUI and Chun’an the lowest. Under the SSP126 scenario, the area with increased LUI is significantly smaller than under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings offer valuable guidance for sustainable planning and built environment management in Hangzhou and similarly situated urban centers worldwide.

Stoichiometric Homeostasis of N and P in the Leaves of Different-Aged Phyllostachys edulis after Bamboo Forest Expansion in Subtropical China

Stoichiometric homeostasis is an important mechanism in maintaining ecosystem structure, function, and stability. Phyllostachys edulis (moso bamboo) is a typical clone plant, forming pure bamboo forests or bamboo–wood mixed forests by expanding rhizomes around. Studying the stoichiometric homeostasis characteristics of moso bamboo at different ages after expansion contributes to a deeper understanding of the stability of bamboo forest ecosystems, and is of great significance for expanding the research scope of ecological stoichiometry. Based on the stoichiometric internal stability theory, the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) elements in the soil and plants of typical moso bamboo forests in Tianbaoyan National Nature Reserve of Fujian Province were determined, and the internal stability index (H) of bamboo leaves of different ages (I-du, II-du, III-du, and IV-du bamboos) was calculated. The results showed that the dependence of moso bamboo on soil nutrients and the ability of moso bamboo to regulate nutrient elements were both significantly affected by the plant’s age. Under the condition of the same soil nutrients (N, P), the content of N and P in bamboo leaves decreased significantly with the increase in bamboo age. The limiting effect of phosphorus on the growth and development of moso bamboo was greater than that of nitrogen, and the limiting effect of phosphorus on aged bamboo was greater than that of young bamboo. The stoichiometric internal stability index of N and P in bamboo leaves is HN:P > HN > HP, which means that the internal stability of moso bamboo is closely related to the limiting elements. Therefore, the regulation ability of the internal stability of moso bamboo of different ages makes it grow well in the changeable environment, has stronger adaptability and competitiveness, and the leaf internal stability of I-du bamboo was higher than that of other ages, which may be one of the reasons for its successful expansion to form a stable bamboo stand structure.

Ecosystem services response to future land use/cover change (LUCC) under multiple scenarios: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China

Ecosystem service functions are significant in responding to future LUCC for urban sustainability. Unfortunately, the present works are absent from the coupling effects of resource utilization intensity, climate and environmental changes, and various socio-economic development patterns, failing to clarify the dynamic response of ecosystem service functions to LUCC. To address this gap, we propose a new integrated framework to achieve multi-scenario simulation of future LUCC and assessing ecosystem services from the dual perspectives of land demand structure and function. On this basis, taking the BTH region as an example, we first explore ecosystem services response to future LUCC under multiple scenarios, then discuss the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services across different situations, and provide recommendations and research directions. The main findings show that: (1) The coupling of the multi-objective programming (MOP) and system dynamics (SD) models can better predict the future development trend from the dual perspectives of structure and function. (2) The SSP126 scenario is optimal in terms of preserving farmland, forest, and grassland or restricting built-up land expansion, which aligns better with the development of LUCC under the coordinated development. (3) With regard to ecosystem services, the SSP126 scenario outperforms the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.

Feasibility study for kelp afforestation in the German Bight: Habitat availability and light requirements of Laminaria hyperborea

Besides the much-needed reduction of CO2 emissions, exploring and implementing carbon removal strategies is essential to reduce the impact of man-made climate change effects. The sequestration of CO2 by coastal vegetated ecosystems (CVEs) presents a natural and nature-based solution. One of these CVEs is kelp forests, which are amongst the most productive and diverse marine ecosystems. Although their CO2 sequestration potential is still being discussed, kelp forests have been increasingly mentioned within the blue carbon framework in recent years. As kelp forests worldwide are in decline, it is not sufficient to conserve these habitats, but expanding the existing and even establishing new sites is essential. As a baseline study for potential kelp forest expansion around the island of Heligoland and even afforestation measures in the German Bight, we investigated the light requirements of the brown alga Laminaria hyperborea and the in situ light climate. Our results point to a compensation irradiance of 30 μmol m−2 s−1 and a local depth limit of 12.8 m for L. hyperborea under summer conditions. Consequently, we calculated the total area with suitable light conditions for kelp growth around Heligoland to be about 24.1 km2. Combining the kelps minimum light requirement, underwater light attenuation, and bathymetric maps, provides an understanding of habitat requirements based on the physiological needs of L. hyperborea and helps to identify suitable afforestation sites within the German Bight.

The contribution of the Commission for nature protection of the Academy of Sciences of the MSSR (1957–1980) to the establishment of the environmental protection system in the Republic of Moldova

The article analyzes the context of creation and activity of the Commission for Nature Protection of the Academy of Sciences of the MSSR during the years 1957–1980. Being initially authorized to coordinate scientific research in the field and to identify natural objects to be taken under the state protection, it had a much wider spectrum of activities that laid down the basis of the environmental protection system in the country. These activities included not only drafting of the Law on Nature Protection and the Government Decisions on establishment of the State Committee in this field, but also initiation of the network creation of state protected areas and nature monuments, along with preparation of the relevant regulations and of the Red Book. The Commission has also contributed to the protection and expansion of forests, soil conservation and water protection, as well as to the constant promotion of environmental awareness. As a result, the Commission has been instrumental in establishing an environmental management system in the republic that currently broadly meets international standards. Its achievements form the basis for the further development of the environmental protection system in the republic.

Evapotranspiration increment was underestimated in China due to underrepresented land cover changes

Numerous evapotranspiration (ET) products have been produced using various approaches and diverse forcing data even as the magnitude and trends of ET show divergence. We simulated ET using updated land use and cover change (LUCC) data in China from 1900 to 2020. We found that China’s ET increased slightly from 1900 to 1980, but it increased rapidly after 1980 due to LUCC characterized by forest expansion (2.05 mm yr−1, P < 0.01). We also found that the ET trends derived from our simulation were significantly higher than other ET products (−0.70–1.47 mm yr−1, P < 0.01), implying that existing, long-term ET products might have underestimated ET trends in China during the post-1980 period because of underrepresented LUCC. These underestimated ET trends could introduce biases in the regional water budget and water resources management. We advocate for future studies to take into account the impacts of LUCC in global ET simulations.

Assessing the Impact of Urban Expansion on Forest Cover using LULC Maps, NDVI, and NDBI: A Case Study of Kathmandu District

Rapid urbanization poses significant challenges to the delicate balance between urban development and environmental conservation. This study investigates the impact of urban expansion on forest cover in the Kathmandu District, employing a comprehensive approach that integrates Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) maps, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI). The aim of the study area is to provide insights into the dynamic interplay between urban growth and its consequences on the region's ecological landscape. LULC maps derived from remote sensing data offer a spatially explicit representation of land-use changes over time, enabling the identification of areas where urbanization has encroached upon forest area. The NDVI, a vegetation health indicator, serves as a quantitative measure of changes in the density and health of vegetation cover, aiding in the assessment of ecological impacts. Complementing this, the NDBI highlights intensity of built-up areas, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the urbanization process. This study employs NDBI and NDVI to dynamically assess urban growth and land use cover change, enhancing analytical accuracy. Findings reveal a substantial 89.9 km² increase in built- up areas between 2013 and 2016, coupled with a minor 18.4 km² increase between 2016 and 2021, reflecting continuous urban expansion driven by population growth and development initiatives. Concurrently, forest area marginally increased by 2.3 km² in 2016, suggesting reforestation and conservation efforts, yet a subsequent 23.5 km² decline by 2021, due to deforestation, urban encroachment, and natural disasters such as wildfires. Notably, vacant land decreased by 92.3 km² in 2016, absorbed by built- up areas and forest expansion, underscoring the urgent need for spatial planning to accommodate the growing population and its evolving needs.

Vegetation response in NW Mediterranean borderlands to the millennial-scale climate variability of the last glacial period

Deep-sea pollen records from the Western European margin show that during the Last Glacial period (115-27 ka), regional vegetation oscillated between steppe and open forest in response to the millennial scale climate variability, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events (HE), and that the magnitude of the forest expansions during D-O warming events was modulated by orbital parameters. However, little is known about the vegetation response in the northwestern Mediterranean region. Here, we present a new well-chronologically constrained high-resolution marine pollen record from the Gulf of Lion documenting the NW Mediterranean vegetation response during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4 and 3. The pollen record highlights the strongest forest expansions during D-O 17-16 and D-O 8 in NW Mediterranean borderlands, likely driven by minima in precession. In this region, Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5 and 4 are marked by steppe landscapes while temperate forest surprisingly characterized HS 6. We hypothesize that the combination of minima in precession and local atmospheric and marine processes allows the development of the temperate forest in NW Mediterranean while the expansion of open environments occurred in other areas of Western Europe. In addition, our results support the hypothesis of Picea survival in NW Mediterranean during MIS 4 to 3.

Do digitalization and trade development positively impact forest road expansion and nature conservation under the individual perception in a transition economy?

Forests are considered to be the planet's green lungs to regulate the air and protect human health. With trade development, deforestation for agricutlural production will affect the natural environment. However, the effect of trade development and digitalization on individual perceptions of forest roads in agricultural production and nature conservation has yet to be identified. Therefore, this study aims to find how trade development affects nature conservation through the individual perception of forest roads for agriculture. Accordingly, four factors are investigated in these effects (digitalization, deforestation, emissions, and health concerns). The qualitative approach was employed to validate the measurement scale, while the quantitative approach was used to test the proposed hypotheses through a survey of 975 citizens in Vietnam. The results found that trade development indirectly impacts the individual perception of forest road expansion through increased emissions. In contrast, digitalization is found to be an insignificant influence on the individual perspective of road expansion. Moreover, the increase in emissions has the highest impact on individuals’ opposition towards forest roads, followed by deforestation. Trade development helps a transition economy shorten the gap with developed countries by receiving advanced technology from other countries. However, this raises concerns about increasing environmental pollution and increasing emissions. Therefore, transition economies that want to encourage the development of international trade must comply with regulations on nature conservation under the free trade agreements in which they participate.

Carbon storage through China’s planted forest expansion

China’s extensive planted forests play a crucial role in carbon storage, vital for climate change mitigation. However, the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of China’s planted forest area and its carbon storage remain uncaptured. Here we reveal such changes in China’s planted forests from 1990 to 2020 using satellite and field data. Results show a doubling of planted forest area, a trend that intensified post-2000. These changes lead to China’s planted forest carbon storage increasing from 675.6 ± 12.5 Tg C in 1990 to 1,873.1 ± 16.2 Tg C in 2020, with an average rate of ~ 40 Tg C yr−1. The area expansion of planted forests contributed ~ 53% (637.2 ± 5.4 Tg C) of the total above increased carbon storage in planted forests compared with planted forest growth. This proactive policy-driven expansion of planted forests has catalyzed a swift increase in carbon storage, aligning with China’s Carbon Neutrality Target for 2060.

The impact of land use and cover changes on river flows in Wundanyi Catchment of Taita Hills, Kenya (1970–2030)

&lt;p&gt;Taita Hills are one of the most important biodiversity hotspots of Kenya but are experiencing a high rate of deforestation due to the to the conversion of its original forestland to agriculture and settlement during the last century. These landscape dynamics, coupled with rainfall fluctuations in these critical ecosystems, may significantly affect water resource distribution and food security in Taita Taveta County and its environs. This study aimed to establish the trends of land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Wundanyi catchment from 1970 to 2030 and predict their specific and combined effects on surface runoff and stream flow in the same period. The analysis was based on statistical trend analysis and dynamic landscape modeling using both historical and primary data from the Wundanyi catchment and Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery of Taita Hills for 1990, 2000, and 2010. Results show highly variable mean seasonal and annual values of discharge in Wundanyi catchment, probably attributed to environmental changes affecting Taita Hills in general and Wundanyi catchment in particular. Compared to 1990, major land use/cover changes in 2010 were featured by the expansion of built-up area (250%), plantation forest (23.7%), broadleaved forest (17.4%), and thicket (15.9%). It was also notable the decrease in woodland (−30.3%), cropland (−21.6%), and shrubland (−0.8%). Dynamic spatial trends by the year 2030 will be evidenced by increased thicket by 0.41% per annum (&lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 81.6%) and by decreased plantation forests (−0.13%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 91.3%), woodland (−0.10%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 77.6%), shrubland (−0.11%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 85.2%), broadleaved forests (−0.03%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 56.6%) and cropland (−0.09%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of 84.4). These changes will shape the catchment landscape and influence its hydrology, unless the existing forest and agricultural policy interventions are enforced. Hence, crop diversification, agroforestry, and soil and water conservation structures are recommended to maintain effective control of LUCC on hydrological processes going on in the Wundanyi catchment.&lt;/p&gt;

Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of poorly stratified sites using malacological assemblages of archaeological features: A case study in Reims (NE France)

At the 53 ter rue de Louvois, in Reims, a number of human settlements dating from the Mesolithic period to the Early Middle Ages have been uncovered. Located on a footslope, these successive settlements are evidenced by archaeological features such as pits and ditches, which broadly appear at the same stratigraphic level. These features of different ages therefore provide valuable opportunities for sedimentary records in a context where natural stratification is poor. The examination of sedimentary archives sourced from archaeological features reveals distinct environmental phases interspersed with hiatuses stemming from the intermittent human habitation of the site. The initial phase provides insights into the early Holocene period, particularly during the First Mesolithic, illustrating the emergence of a pioneering semi-forest environment between around 9200 and 8200 cal. BC. Subsequently, Phase 2a, dated between 7050 and 6250 cal. BC, witnesses the expansion of deciduous forests during the Second Mesolithic. This expansion peaks during the Middle Neolithic (4300–3500 cal. BC), despite the construction of an enclosure in Phase 2b. The site is later cleared, at an unknown date between the end of the Middle Neolithic and the beginning of the Iron Age, probably during the late Bronze Age, between 1300 and 800 cal. BC. Phase 3 is thus characterised by the dominance of a dry grassland environment from the Hallstatt period through the early Middle Ages. This regional example illustrates the remarkable potential of malacological remains for reconstructing palaeoenvironments in poorly stratified contexts, as close as possible to human settlements and outside wetlands, the main sites for palynological investigations.

Which Provinces Will Be the Beneficiaries of Forestry Carbon Sink Trade? A Study on the Carbon Intensity–Carbon Sink Assessment Model in China

Carbon emissions pose a significant challenge to sustainable development, particularly for China, which is the world’s largest emerging economy and is under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality and reduce emissions amid escalating human activities. The variation in economic development levels and carbon sequestration capacities among its provinces poses a significant hurdle. However, previous research has not adequately examined this dual discrepancy from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, resulting in a lack of differentiated management of forest carbon sinks across diverse regions. Therefore, to mitigate this discrepancy, this study presents an assessment methodology that analyzes over 100 types of natural and plantation forests using forest age and biomass expansion factors. This study presents a model that can significantly support the efforts of both China and the whole world to achieve carbon neutrality through the improved management of forest carbon sinks. This approach facilitates the assessment of carbon offsets required to meet reduction targets, the development of a provincial framework for carbon intensity and sequestration, and the exploration of their potential for trading markets. Analysis is conducted using MATLAB. Key achievements of this study include the following: (1) The collection of a comprehensive carbon stock dataset for 50 natural and 57 plantation forest types in 31 provinces from 2009 to 2018, highlighting the significant role of new forests in carbon sequestration. (2) The development of a provincial carbon status scoring system that categorizes provinces as carbon-negative, carbon-balancing, or carbon-positive based on local forest sink data and carbon credit demand. (3) The formulation of the carbon intensity–carbon sink assessment (CISA) model, which suggests that provinces with middle- to upper-middle-level economies may have a prolonged need for carbon sink credits during their peak carbon phase. Furthermore, the results show that carbon trading may benefit Guangxi and Yunnan, but may also bring opportunities and risks to Hunan and Hubei. To address regional imbalances, this study advocates tailored policies: carbon-negative and carbon-balancing provinces should enhance carbon sink management, while carbon-positive provinces must focus on energy structure transformation to achieve sustainable development goals.

Ecology and abundance of a relict population of the bush cricket Saga pedo in the Northern Apennines, Italy.

The expansion of forest cover and intensification of agriculture represent the main threats to the bush cricket Saga pedo, currently listed as Vulnerable globally by the IUCN and included in Annex IV of the European Union Habitats Directive. Gathering information on its ecology and population size is challenging due to its low abundance and localized distribution. Additionally, the elusive and cryptic behavior of this species reduces the likelihood of its detection, potentially resulting in population underestimations. Thus, in this study, we aimed to (1) estimate S. pedo population size in relation to environmental variables and prey availability and (2) predict abundance of S. pedo in our study area for future monitoring in nearby territories. We found that the population of S. pedo in our study area consists of 197 (±115) individuals with a detection probability of 21.01% (±11.09). Detection probability of S. pedo further decreases on windy days. Moreover, we found that the investigated population of S. pedo occupies suboptimal areas, as highlighted not only by the predicted abundances but also by the association between S. pedo and other subfamilies of orthoptera that are ecologically very distant from our target species and mostly linked to mesophilic biotopes. Most of the individuals we observed are concentrated in small clearings completely within wooded matrices and therefore isolated from each other. Based on our results, it is possible that forest expansion toward open meadows represents the main threat to this population, transforming the clearings and xeric meadows (to which S. pedo is linked) into small and fragmented patches that are suboptimal and insufficient to host viable populations.

Climate change critically affects the status of the land-system change planetary boundary

The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity. To date, these boundaries have mostly been investigated separately, and it is unclear whether breaching one boundary can lead to the transgression of another. By employing a dynamic global vegetation model, we systematically simulate the strength and direction of the effects of different transgression levels of the climate change boundary (using climate output from ten phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models for CO2 levels ranging from 350 ppm to 1000 ppm). We focus on climate change-induced shifts of Earth’s major forest biomes, the control variable for the land-system change boundary, both by the end of this century and, to account for the long-term legacy effect, by the end of the millennium. Our simulations show that while staying within the 350 ppm climate change boundary co-stabilizes the land-system change boundary, breaching it (>450 ppm) leads to critical transgression of the latter, with greater severity the higher the ppm level rises and the more time passes. Specifically, this involves a poleward treeline shift, boreal forest dieback (nearly completely within its current area under extreme climate scenarios), competitive expansion of temperate forest into today’s boreal zone, and a slight tropical forest extension. These interacting changes also affect other planetary boundaries (freshwater change and biosphere integrity) and provide feedback to the climate change boundary itself. Our quantitative process-based study highlights the need for interactions to be studied for a systemic operationalization of the planetary boundaries framework.