Exchange Rate Variability Research Articles

Control of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycle for fast and efficient load variation processes

The supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO2) cycle is considered a promising power conversion system due to its high efficiency and flexibility. This work presents a dynamic model of a 600 MWe S-CO2 recompression Brayton cycle (RBC) and validates it at both component and system levels. To ensure the safety and stability of the S-CO2 RBC during wide-load operation, some necessary control strategies are designed, including minimum pressure and temperature control, split ratio control, turbine inlet temperature control, and anti-surge control. Moreover, an innovative valve-inventory joint control method is proposed, coupled with an improved inventory tank layout, to achieve both fast and efficient load variation processes. Compared to the control strategy before improvement, the ramp-up and ramp-down rates are significantly increased by 2.65 and 2.24 times, respectively. In addition, the values of key parameters suitable for wide-load operation of the S-CO2 RBC are determined to maximize the cycle efficiency under off-design conditions. The results show that the split ratio should be dynamically adjusted to determine the optimal value that varies with the load, which can improve the cycle efficiency by a maximum of 1.13 %. Finally, the dynamic performance of the S-CO2 RBC is studied during load ramp changes and real-time microgrid load, and the variations in heat exchange, pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate of key components are revealed. Comparative analysis with previous literature demonstrates that the proposed control method provides a wider load regulation range, an increase of 7.78 % in cycle efficiency, and a reduced maximum generation frequency deviation of 0.696 Hz. There is no overpressure or compressor surge risk, and the maximum temperature change rate is only 1.3 ℃·min−1.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on the Existence of Inflation in Indonesia Using the Vector Error Correction Model Approach

This research investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, and the joint stock index, on inflation in Indonesia. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dynamic model approach, the study reveals a long-term relationship among each variable (Inflation Rate, Jakarta Composite Index, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Money Supply). Granger Causality Test results indicate a unidirectional relationship of interest rate and money supply variables to inflation, interest rate to Jakarta Composite Index, and money supply to the exchange rate. Conversely, there is a bidirectional relationship between exchange rate and inflation variables. In the short term, Interest Rate significantly and positively influences inflation, whereas, in the long term, it exhibits a negative and insignificant effect. Money supply, in the long run, significantly and positively affects the inflation rate. This study stands out in the macroeconomic literature due to its distinctive choice of variables and the dynamic model employed

Demand for Money in the United States: Stability and Forward-Looking Tests

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2.

ESTIMATING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES; SIERRA LEONE EXPERIENCE

<p>The study conducts an investigation that seeks to evaluate the nature of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices in Sierra Leone. As a small, open economy, the country is susceptible to exogenous shocks. The exchange rate acts as a medium through which external shocks get transmitted to the real economy. Therefore, the general objective of the study is to assess the effect of the fluctuation of the exchange rate on domestic prices in Sierra Leone. More specifically, it sought to determine which type of exchange rate pass-through exists for Sierra Leone, using annual time series data between 1992 and 2022. The empirical analysis was based on a VECM model. The coefficient of the exchange rate (.5365) which is also significant at the 5% level of significance (p-value = 0.002), indicates that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete in Sierra Leone. This means that a 1-unit depreciation of the Leone (increase in nominal exchange rate), leads to an increase in Sierra Leone consumer price by .5365 units or approximately 53.65%. This is an indication of indirect pass-through, where importers increase the price of imported goods to maintain their markup in the event of a nominal exchange rate depreciation. The recommendation to the finding is that since it was revealed that Sierra Leone has relatively high exchange rate shocks means that monetary authorities in Sierra Leone should pay more attention to the effects of EXR fluctuation on consumer prices. Measures such as the promotion of local production to substitute imported goods are key to addressing the effects of exchange rate variations.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL: </strong>F31, E31, C32, O24<strong></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/lit/0758/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Nigerian-Naira Exchange Rate Fluctuations (1981-2021)

This study majorly considered establishing the relationship that existed among the Nigerian-Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate and External Reserve, Inflation Rate, GDP Growth, Public Debt, Unemployment Rate and Exports for the period, (1981-2021). Also, the macroeconomic variables that influenced the NGN exchange rate fluctuations were determined. Multiple linear regression and correlation analyses were employed in this study. Results showed that the significant variables that influenced the NGN exchange rate fluctuations were External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate; and each of them had very strong significant positive relationships with NGN exchange rate fluctuations. It was equally revealed that about 97% of the total variations in the NGN exchange rate fluctuations, from 1981 to 2021, were accounted for by variations in External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate; while about 3% of the total variations in the NGN exchange rate could be attributed to other macroeconomic factors outside the ones used in this study. It was concluded that External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate were the most macroeconomic factors that influenced the Nigerian-Naira exchange rate fluctuations from 1981 to 2021.

Real exchange rates and manufacturing exports in emerging economies: the role of sectoral heterogeneity and product complexity

The empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and export performance in emerging economies is inconclusive. In this paper, we present evidence that one reason for this inconclusiveness is the use of real exchange rate (RER) measures that do not consider the heterogeneity between economic sectors. To this end, we calculate a unique sectoral bilateral RER index (SBRER) for 12 Latin American economies, which considers the variation of producer price differentials and bilateral nominal exchange rates across 21 manufacturing sectors and 38 trade partners between 2001–2018, and to estimate the effect of SBRER movements on manufacturing exports. The regression results show that the SBRER is a significant determinant of aggregate manufacturing exports, whereas the bilateral RER is not significant. Moreover, sectoral export elasticities indicate that mainly sectors with low levels of product complexity and, to a lesser extent, those of medium complexity are affected by RER movements. These findings show that it is important to consider sectoral heterogeneity when estimating RER export elasticities from a macroeconomic perspective.

The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Investment in Nigeria

This study investigated the relative effectiveness of monetary policy on investment in Nigeria for the period 1990Q1 to 2019Q4 using SVAR model. The study found out that monetary policy is effective for influencing investment in Nigeria in short run, medium and long run. Specifically, the study found out that interest rate, bank credit and exchange rate are the most ef fective variables for influencing investment when compared with other variables (money supply, inflation and exchange rate) within the model of the study. The study therefore recommend that central bank should peg monetary policy rate at a threshold suitable to increase money supply and credit facilitation by commercial banks in order to stimulate investment in the Nigeria economy.

The sustainability of production and the US Dollar exchange rate influence Indonesian Cocoa and Pepper exports and their competitiveness

This research aims to determine the sustainability of production factors and the US dollar exchange rate on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021, as well as their competitiveness with Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan during the period of 2017-2021. The data analysis methods used were Multiple Linear Regression, RAC, and EPD. The research results indicate that production sustainability has a significant effect on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period, while the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a significant effect on cocoa exports but an insignificant effect on pepper exports. The competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa for the 2017-2021 period, using the RCA method, is strong in Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan but weak in Thailand and Vietnam. However, with the EPD method, exports to Singapore and Vietnam are in the Raising Star position, to Thailand and Japan in the Falling Star position, and to Malaysia in the Lost Opportunity position. With the RCA method for the 2017-2021 period, Indonesia’s pepper competitiveness is weak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan, but with the EPD method, it is Raising Star in Malaysia and Vietnam, Falling Star in Thailand and Japan, and Lost Opportunity in Singapore.

Analyzing the Effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on East Africa’s Foreign Exchange Ratevolatility

Oil is one of the major sources of energy in the world today, therefore many sectors of the economy are directly or indirectly dependent on oil as a source of energy. These has made oil price fluctuation to one of the most sort after macroeconomic variable due to its potential effects on the global economy. The primary objective of this paper was to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on foreign exchange rate of the three East African countries using SVAR analysis for the period from 1990 to 2022. Our empirical evidence confirmed that the increase in the price of crude oil in leads to a positive change in foreign exchange to the Dollar, the SVAR estimation confirmed positive significant effect of oil price fluctuation on foreign exchange trends, the results of the IRF pointed out oil price fluctuation positively affect the East Africa’s foreign exchange performance and finally the FEVD of oil price fluctuation on foreign exchange reflected that there exist indirect effects of oil price fluctuation on foreign exchange as well as foreign exchange influencing oil price after the second period. Based on these findings we therefore conclude that crude oil price fluctuations contribute significantly to the foreign exchange variability in the East African countries and hence affecting other sectors of the economy inversely.It is on this ground that we recommend adoption of policies that will reduce this effect on this countries, to start with to reduce the burden the countries should look for alternative locally available source of power that include adoption of Bi-diesel, compressed methane that can be source from sugar cane give the un tapped potential of sugar can in the three countries. In addition, the countries can consider price hedging of oil purchases where the countries enter into contract with their oil supplies for a constant crude oil price over the contract period.

Temporal variability of air-water gas exchange of carbon dioxide in clam and fish aquaculture ponds

The growing trend of land-based aquaculture has heightened the significance of comprehensively assessing air-water carbon dioxide (CO2) gas exchange in these inland waters, given their potential impact on carbon neutral strategies. However, temporal variations of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and CO2 flux in clam and fish aquaculture ponds were barely investigated. We assessed the water surface pCO2 in one to five months intervals by deploying a lab-made buoy in three clam ponds and three fishponds located in tropical and subtropical climates. Measurements were conducted over a 24 h period each time, spanning from April 2021 to June 2022, covering the stocking, middle, and harvesting stages of the culture cycle. Diurnal pCO2 variations were dominantly controlled by biologically driven changes in dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity (~97 %), while temperature and salinity effects were minor (~3 %). Clam ponds acted as a sink of atmospheric CO2 during stocking stages and transitioned to a source during middle to harvesting stages. In contrast, fishponds acted as a source of atmospheric CO2 throughout culture cycles and CO2 flux strengthened when reaching harvesting stages. Overall, clam ponds acted as a weak sink for atmospheric CO2 (−2.8 ± 17.3 mmol m−2 d−1), whereas fishponds acted as a source (16.8 ± 21.7 mmol m−2 d−1). CO2 emission was stronger during daytime coinciding with higher windspeeds compared to nighttime in fishponds. We suggest incorporating high temporal resolution measurements to account for diurnal and culture-stage variations, enabling more accurate estimates of air-water CO2 flux in aquaculture ponds. Moreover, the findings of this study highlight the importance of feeding, aeration, and biological activities (photosynthesis, remineralization, and calcification) in controlling the air-water CO2 flux in aquaculture ponds and such information can be used in implementing better strategies to achieve carbon neutral goals.

Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia Dan Makroekonomi Terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2018-2022

Abstract
 This study aims to determine the effect of world oil prices and macroeconomics on the movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2018-2022 PERIOD. By using the multiple linear regression analysis method, it can be seen how the relationship between world oil and macroeconomic variables as independent variables with the composite stock price index variable as the dependent variable. The data used in this study is monthly data for all variables in the 2018-2022 period. Then from the research results it was found that the world oil price variable and the inflation variable had a positive and significant effect on the JCI. The exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the JCI. While the interest rate variable has no effect on the JCI variable partially..

PENGARUH FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN EKSTERNAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM PADA SUBSEKTOR BATU BARA YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA (BEI) TAHUN 2018-2022

This research was conducted with the aim of knowing the description and influence of Return on Assets, Earning Pershare, Price Earning Ratio, Exchange Rates and Inflation on the share prices of the coal subsector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for 2018-2022. The research method used in this research is quantitative analysis with descriptive and verification methods to determine the description of internal factors (Return on Assets, Earning Pershare, Price Earning Ratio). This research uses secondary data in the form of annual reports from each company, with a sample size of 23 companies and 115 financial reports using non-probability sampling techniques, purposive sampling. Data testing techniques are carried out using classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression coefficient tests, coefficient of determination tests, and hypothesis tests. Based on the results of research using the determination test, it was found that the Return on Assets variable had an effect on stock prices by 3.7%, the Earning Pershare variable had an effect on stock prices by 8.6%, while the Price Earning Ratio variable had an effect on stock prices by 0.6%, The exchange rate variable has an effect on stock prices by 2.2% and the inflation variable has an effect on stock prices by 1%. The verification results found that the variable Return on Assets had an effect on stock prices, Earning Pershare had an effect on stock prices, Price Earning Ratio had no effect on stock prices, Exchange Rates had no effect on stock prices, Inflation had no effect on stock prices and the Variables Return on Assets, Earnings Pershare, Price Earning Ratio, Exchange Rate and Inflation were simultaneously found to have a significant influence on share prices.

Determinant of indonesian commodity coffee export In the era of covid-19 pandemic

This study aims to analyze the factors of gross domestic product, total consumption, exchange rate, and export goods price index on export performance of coffee beans after pandemic Covid-19. This study uses secondary data and (Generalized Method of Moment). The study shows that the variable total consumption and value of exports show a positive and insignificant relationship and the variables of GDP and exchange rates show a negative and significant relationship with coffee commodity exports with exports of coffee commodities.

Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria (2001 - 2021)

The study attempts to establish the relationship between government spending and GDP in Nigeria from 2001 to 2021. The multiple regression analysis's ordinary least squares (OLS) method was employed. The econometric research shows that the independent variables (recurrent spending, capital expenditure, domestic debt, foreign debt, and exchange rate) have a positive connection with the dependent variable GDP. The OLS findings also show that the overall model accounts for over 94.98% of the changes in the dependent variable (R2 = 0.9498). This means that the variable will have a considerable impact on the GPD. The study suggests that there is an urgent need to instill fiscal discipline in government expenditure by initiating effective internal control measures and more proactive economic management coordination and implementation, as well as discouraging all known productive activities and expenditures at all levels of government. There is also a need for the government to ensure that its expenditures are channeled appropriately to sectors such as infrastructure development in order to boost investment and output, with the expected outcome of price stabilization.

DETERMINAN EKSPOR LADA INDONESIA PERIODE 2009-2019: STUDI KASUS 10 MITRA DAGANG

One of the flagship commodities with great potential for Indonesia's economic growth is black pepper (Piper nigrum L). The importance of maintaining Indonesia's competitiveness in black pepper exports, both in the domestic and international markets, has increased in tandem with the rising export volume, with the primary determinant of its competitiveness being the demand for black pepper. Data from the 2021 plantation balance sheet recorded black pepper exports at 39,961.36 tons and black pepper imports at 295.37 tons, while tea exports reached 46,003.88 tons with tea imports at 10,442.75 tons. This research aims to analyze the influence of factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate, tariffs, and distance on Indonesian black pepper exports, adopting a research model similar to the one used by Shepotylo (2012), which utilizes econometric modeling, with a quantitative and descriptive analysis approach. The research results indicate that the Gross Domestic Product variable has a negative and significant impact on Export Value, with a probability value of t < 0.05, indicating a significant influence. On the other hand, the Exchange Rate and Tariff variables have a negative but non-significant impact on Export Value, with a probability value of t > 0.05, indicating their lack of significance. Furthermore, the research findings also reveal that the Distance variable has a significant negative impact on Export Value, with a probability value of t < 0.05, indicating a significant influence.

PENGARUH INFLASI, NILAI KURS DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN PERBANKAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA


 
 
 
 Stock return is the return obtained from investment. Investors' expectations in investing in stocks other than being the owner of a company with a certain proportional ownership, the shares invested are expected to be able to provide a certain rate of return. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inflation, exchange rates and interest rates on stock returns in banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2017-2019.
 The population in this study were all banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2017-2019 period, totaling 45 companies. The sampling technique used purposive sampling method, in order to obtain a sample of 27 company samples. The data collection method used in this study is secondary data with documentation techniques by collecting existing online documents in the form of financial reports obtained from www.idx.co.id. With the number of observations for 3 consecutive years. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression using the SPSS version 16 program.
 The results of this study indicate that the independent variable inflation, exchange rates and interest rates have an effect on stock returns with a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. The results of the study that partially Inflation has an effect on Stock Returns indicated by a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. Exchange rate has an effect on Stock Return indicated by a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. Interest rates have an effect on Stock Returns indicated by a significance value of 0.000 <0.05.
 The conclusion from the results of this study is that inflation, exchange rates and interest rates affect Stock Returns in banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2017-2019. Suggestions that can be conveyed to investors who are going to invest are advised to pay more attention to these variables in making investment decisions so as to reduce investment risks such as decreased stock returns
 
 
 

Comparative Study of Macroeconomic Variables and Corporate Bond Issuance Behavior: A Case of Nepal and Bangladesh

The primary objective of this study is to investigate how various macroeconomic variables—such as the size of the economy, size of the bank, size of corporate debt, openness of the economy, and exchange rate variability—affect the issuance behavior of corporate debt in Nepal and Bangladesh. Using secondary data collected from the World Bank and respective countries' official websites spanning 27 years from 1993 to 2019, the research employs an analytical and descriptive research design. Statistical tests, including correlation, regression analysis, and t-tests, were conducted using STATA, SPSS, and Excel. The findings reveal a strong correlation between the size of corporate debt and corporate debt issuance behavior in both Nepal and Bangladesh. T-tests indicate significant differences in the openness of the economy, size of the bank, and issuance behavior of corporate debt between the two countries. Hypothesis testing underscores a significant relationship between the size of corporate debt and the issuance behavior of corporate debt in both Nepal and Bangladesh. This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers, financial analysts, and businesses seeking to navigate the complexities of corporate bond markets in these regions. Keywords: Corporate bond, Issuance behavior, Comparative study, Financial markets, Economic size, Openness of economy, Exchange rate variability.

Conditional macroeconomic and stock market volatility under regime switching: Empirical evidence from Africa

<abstract> <p>We used the Markov switching regression model to establish a relationship between the conditional stock market returns and macroeconomic volatilities. Monthly data from thirteen (13) African stock markets and macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, money supply, and crude oil price) from 2003 to 2022 were employed. We confirmed the existence of two distinct regimes: An economic expansion or a "tranquil" state with less volatility and an economic decline or a "crisis" state with high volatility. Our findings indicated that macroeconomic variables significantly affect both expansion and crisis periods. However, the estimated coefficients were more significant in a tranquil than in a crisis state. The findings of the study were consistent with macroeconomic theory and pointed out policy implications.</p> </abstract>

Persistent net release of carbon dioxide and methane from an Alaskan lowland boreal peatland complex.

Permafrost degradation in peatlands is altering vegetation and soil properties and impacting net carbon storage. We studied four adjacent sites in Alaska with varied permafrost regimes, including a black spruce forest on a peat plateau with permafrost, two collapse scar bogs of different ages formed following thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements included year-round eddy covariance estimates of net carbon dioxide (CO2 ), mid-April to October methane (CH4 ) emissions, and environmental variables. From 2011 to 2022, annual rainfall was above the historical average, snow water equivalent increased, and snow-season duration shortened due to later snow return. Seasonally thawed active layer depths also increased. During this period, all ecosystems acted as slight annual sources of CO2 (13-59 g C m-2 year-1 ) and stronger sources of CH4 (11-14 g CH4 m-2 from ~April to October). The interannual variability of net ecosystem exchange was high, approximately ±100 g C m-2 year-1 , or twice what has been previously reported across other boreal sites. Net CO2 release was positively related to increased summer rainfall and winter snow water equivalent and later snow return. Controls over CH4 emissions were related to increased soil moisture and inundation status. The dominant emitter of carbon was the rich fen, which, in addition to being a source of CO2 , was also the largest CH4 emitter. These results suggest that the future carbon-source strength of boreal lowlands in Interior Alaska may be determined by the area occupied by minerotrophic fens, which are expected to become more abundant as permafrost thaw increases hydrologic connectivity. Since our measurements occur within close proximity of each other (≤1 km2 ), this study also has implications for the spatial scale and data used in benchmarking carbon cycle models and emphasizes the necessity of long-term measurements to identify carbon cycle process changes in a warming climate.

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON TAX INCIDENCE FOR INDIAN IT COMPANIES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

This study investigates the impact of variations in the USD/INR exchange rate on the tax burden of Indian IT enterprises from 2019 to 2023. Exchange rate fluctuations can affect tax obligations by influencing the conversion of overseas income and the efficacy of hedging tactics. The research conducted an analysis using correlation and regression techniques on data from prominent IT companies like as Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, and HCL Technologies. The findings indicate a notable and positive relationship between fluctuations in currency rates and tax expenses. Infosys and TCS demonstrate the highest levels of correlation, with around 82.6% and 88.8% of their variation in tax expenses being accounted for by variations in exchange rates, respectively. These findings emphasize the importance of using efficient risk management methods, such as strategic hedging and the strategic placement of subsidiaries, to reduce the negative impact of currency fluctuations on tax-related financial factors. Further research could investigate the role of government policies in mitigating these risks.