Currency Exchange Rates Research Articles

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Tourist Visits in Indonesia: GARCH Analysis

In this era of globalization, currency exchange rates are one of the crucial factors affecting a country's economy. The exchange rate of a country's currency plays an important role in economic stability and international trade, especially in the tourism sector. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis to identify patterns of rupiah exchange rate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, and then examine whether these patterns have a significant correlation with the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia. In analyzing the data, researchers conducted several classical assumption tests, namely the normality test and the heteroscedasticity test. The test results show that the data used, namely the rupiah exchange rate data and the number of foreign tourist visits, are not normally distributed and heteroscedastic. In this case, it resulted in researchers not use the Pearson correlation test so they used the Kendall-Tau correlation test and Granger Causality test which resulted in the two variables being correlated. Furthermore, GARCH modeling is carried out which provides forecasting on both data to increase in 2024. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for consideration for stakeholders to determine policies, especially in the financial and tourism sectors.

Interconnectedness and return spillover among APEC currency exchange rates: A time-frequency analysis

By combining TVP-VAR Model (time domain connectedness) and TVP-VAR based Baruník and Křehlík model (frequency domain connectedness), this study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse on the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum currency exchange rates. The results reveal that APEC currencies have time-varying effects (tend to cluster in appreciation and depreciation patterns in both the short and long term) and have generated higher total return spillover during COVID-19 (in the time domain) than the Russia-Ukraine war and SVB collapse. During COVID-19 (87.18 %) (total return spillover), impacts were more severe than the Russia-Ukraine crisis (79.49 %) and the Silicon Valley Bank collapse (75.55 %). Moreover, the South Korean won, Thai Bhat and Australian Dollar are identified as consistent shock transmitters, and Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine peso, Indonesian Rupiah, and Chinese Yuan as consistent shock receivers in the time domain. The findings have substantial repercussions for financial regulators and investors.

The Impact of Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Changes on Firm Value (An Applied Study on Companies Listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange)

The Impact of Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Changes on Firm Value (An Applied Study on Companies Listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange)

Pengaruh Perputaran Persediaan, Likuiditas dan Profitabilitas Terhadap Kualitas Laba Pada Perusahaan Food and Beverage Yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2028-2022

The aim of this research is to determine the significance of the influence of inventory turnover, liquidity and profitability on earnings quality in food and beverage sub sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2022 period. This research uses quantitative data, secondary data sources are company financial report. The number of samples in this research is 21 companies, sampling uses a purposive sampling method. The data collection method used is documentation methods, obtained from the official website www.idx.co.id and the official website of the food and beverage sub-sector company. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis. The result of the t test study state that inventory turnover and liquidity has no significant effect on earnings quality in food and beverage sub sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2022 period, while profitability has a significant negative effect on earnings quality in food and beverage sub sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2022 period. This research only uses food and beverage sub-sector companies as the object and uses three variables. Future researchers are expected to expand the research object and add other variables such as currency exchange rates, shipping costs, profit growth, accounts receivable turnover.

EXCHANGE RATES AND STOCK MARKET DYNAMICS: ISLAMIC VERSUS CONVENTIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

This study investigates the changes and persistence in dynamic connectedness between stock market performance and exchange rate fluctuations, comparing conventional and Islamic financial systems. With an eye on a global financial landscape characterized by the integration of capital markets and the adoption of floating exchange rate regimes, it examines the effects of exchange rate variations on the dynamics of the stock market in nine different countries - the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Canada, China, India, Korea, and South Africa. The study employs daily data spanning from November 2015 to July 2023 and uses a comprehensive analysis of three-step methodology, including nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests, asymmetric slope Conditional Autoregressive Valueat-Risk (CAViaR), and Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) Connectedness measure. Our results underline the asymmetric impact of exchange rate fluctuations on stock markets and highlights the distinctive characteristics of Islamic financial markets. Comparing Islamic and conventional stock markets in the context of exchange rate fluctuations, this study not only serves to fill a gap in the existing literature but also emphasizes the significance of currency exchange rate swings for global investors, policymakers, and practitioners trying to understand the intricacies of global financial markets.

Механізми тактичного управління торговельних підприємств на основі використання їх потенціалу в умовах розвитку е-бізнесу

The article is devoted to determining the essence and features of tactical management mechanisms of trading enterprises based on the use of their potential in the context of e-business development. It has been investigated that the electronic business market is currently developing, as evidenced by the increasing number of enterprises in the online sales market, the growth in sales volumes, and their share in the total trade volume. The advantages and disadvantages of trading enterprises transitioning to digital platforms are identified, along with the main threats that hinder effective development in this field, including war and logistics disruptions, the introduction of legislative restrictions, currency exchange rate instability, globalization of competition, etc. These threats necessitate optimizing strategies and appropriate tactical management mechanisms for trading and other business processes. It has been determined that the tactical mechanisms of trade activity in the electronic commerce market, based on the utilization of enterprise potential, are a set of measures and tools aimed at achieving the long-term development goals of the enterprise, as outlined in the strategy for market penetration and development in the e-business market, which involves the effective use of enterprise potential. These mechanisms ensure flexibility and efficiency in implementing strategic plans, contributing to adaptation to changes in the market environment and maintaining competitive advantages. It is noted that managing a trading company in the context of entering the e-commerce market requires an integrated approach that encompasses comprehensive marketing, operational, and financial mechanisms. The marketing mechanism includes brand promotion, assortment management, pricing, CRM, multichannel sales, and market analysis. Operational mechanisms involve optimizing the website, managing online advertising, implementing order management systems and efficient logistics, and using CRM tools to maintain customer relationships. Financial mechanisms focus on managing cash flows, optimizing costs, evaluating pricing strategies, and managing financial risks, ensuring the company’s stable growth and competitiveness. Keywords: trade enterprises, e-business, tactical management mechanisms, e-commerce, digital tools, trade enterprise strategy, enterprise potential, transfer potential, competitiveness.

Currency Exchange Rate Volatility as A Moderating Effect of The Gold and Coal Price Against Fund Age and Mutual Fund in Indonesia

Currency Exchange Rate Volatility as A Moderating Effect of The Gold and Coal Price Against Fund Age and Mutual Fund in Indonesia

A Study on Exploring and Prioritizing Critical Risks in Construction Project Assessment

According to Mc Kinsey Report (2015) large construction projects take 20% large time and 80% more budget to get finished. This highlights the importance of Risk Assessment to ensure work safety, cost management and quality construction.The study aims to identify and investigate critical risks in the evaluation of construction projects by utilizing the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Weighted Average Index method. The risk factors for project assessment were identified in the following domains: Budget and Cost Management Risk, Schedule and Time Management Risk, Scope and Planning Risk, Safety and Regulatory Compliance Risk, Resource Management Risk, Communication and Stakeholder Management Risk, and Environmental and Sustainability Risk, through an extensive literature review and expert interviews. A survey was distributed to building operators in Hyderabad, India. The Weighted Average Index technique was used to evaluate 180 completed responses and identify risk indicators. To find underlying patterns, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to gain a better understanding of the connections between these variables. Results identified reliance on essential resources, insufficient risk assessment, cash flow restrictions, and safety issues as top considerations, with currency exchange rate swings and delayed information dissemination ranking lower but still substantial. These insights provide essential advise to stakeholders in order to successfully minimize risks and improve project results. By using systematic risk assessment and management methodologies, building projects in Hyderabad and elsewhere may handle hurdles more effectively, assuring long-term sustainability and resilience.

From serials crisis to dollar crisis: The compelling evidence against APC‐based open access in sub‐Saharan Africa countries

Key points The article processing charges (APC)‐based model of open access has constituted a major obstacle to achieving open access in developing countries. High exchange rates of local currencies to the dollar make sustaining the APC open access model impractical. Other approaches should be used to achieve equitable and inclusive open access.

Currency Exchange Rate Volatility: Consequences on International Trade in Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of currency exchange rate volatility on international trade in Pakistan utilizing annual time series data from 1990 to 2022, collected through World Development Indicators (WDI) and Economic survey of Pakistan. The Correlation, ADF unit root test, ARDL bound test and ARDL model techniques have been used to attain the results. The outcomes indicate that there exists strong and moderate correlation between the variables used in the study. Variables used in the study have mixed order of integration and ARDL results portrays that volatility of exchange rate adversely influences international trade in Pakistan. Whereas, the impact of economic growth, population growth rate, inflation rate, and industrialization, appear to be positive statistically significant and expenditures on research and development came out to be insignificant. It is concluded that volatility of exchange rate badly impacts international trade in Pakistan; therefore, policymakers should make the exchange rate stable by using monetary policy tools.

Volatilitas Nilai Tukar dan Harga Komoditas Global selama Krisis Laut Merah

Purpose: This study aims to determine the most suitable model for assessing the volatility of currency exchange rates for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well as global commodity prices, specifically gold and crude oil. Methodology: The research was conducted by performing various tests using the SPSS version 25 application, followed by a volatility analysis employing the GARCH method with the E-Views version 9 application. Results: The study reveals that the Red Sea crisis significantly impacts global investment volatility. The EGARCH(1,1) model best describes the volatility of USD/IDR, USD/SGD, and crude oil prices, while the GJR-GARCH(1,1) model is most suitable for USD/MYR, and the GARCH(1,1) model fits gold price volatility. Limitations: This study is limited by its focus on only three countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore) and two commodities (gold and crude oil). Additionally, the analysis only covers the period following the first attack in the Red Sea crisis. Contribution: This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers and investors by highlighting the impact of global events on market volatility.

The Effect Of Stock Price, Earning Per Share, Current Year Profit, Inflation, Interest And Exchange Rate On Construction Investment In Pt. Total Bangun Persada Tbk During 2013-2022

Indonesia is vigorously promoting progress in the construction sector, a key aspect of infrastructure development aimed at achieving equitable distribution across the country and preventing economic disparities (Willar, Waney, Pangemanan, & Mait, 2019). Infrastructure development is an essential program that continues to be advanced to enhance infrastructure and ensure economic equality throughout Indonesia. One of the primary infrastructure sectors targeted for development is construction (Pridayanti, 2014). Construction plays a vital role in supporting economic growth and improving the quality of life by providing necessary facilities and amenities. The construction of roads, bridges, buildings, and other infrastructures not only enhances connectivity and logistics efficiency but creates jobs and attracts investment. Therefore, the construction sector is a priority in the government's efforts to strengthen national competitiveness and catch up with other countries. One solution to support infrastructure development, particularly in construction, is through investment. Investment in the construction sector is crucial as it provides the necessary funds to build and improve existing and new infrastructures (Tambunan, Sabijono, & Lambey, 2019). Moreover, investment can attract reputable and competent construction companies, such as PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk, a private company engaged in construction. Investment also plays a role in creating new jobs, enhancing local workforce skills, and fostering economic growth (Mara, 2022). In making investment decisions, several factors need to be considered, such as the impact of stock prices, Earnings Per Share (EPS), current profit, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates. Stock prices reflect the company's performance and market perception of prospects, while EPS indicates the profit earned per share, providing insight into the company's financial health. Current profit shows the profitability generated from daily operations. Inflation and interest rates are macroeconomic indicators that affect purchasing power and capital costs. Exchange rates, on the other hand, influence the cost of importing raw materials and the company's exposure to international markets. All these factors must be comprehensively considered to make wise and beneficial investment decisions.

Does the S-curve demonstrate an asymmetrical response to fluctuations in exchange rates?

Purpose This study aims to examine the asymmetric S-curve between the trade balances of Pakistan and China at the commodity level using disaggregated data. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on Pakistan and China bilateral trade based on commodity-level data. This study delves into the S-curve phenomena by examining time series data from 1980 to 2023 across 32 three-digit industries/commodities. Findings The findings show significant evidence in favor of the “asymmetric S-curve” in 27 out of the 32 industries studied. This study confirms that the devaluation of home currency is not a viable solution always to improve trade balance. Research limitations/implications This study considers 32 three-digit industries limiting the generalizability of findings. Due to data unavailability, the authors fail to consider other industries. In the absence of quarterly data on industry-level trade between Pakistan and China, annual data from 1980 to 2023 were used in generating the cross-correlation functions. Previous literature frequently resorted to the general consumer price index with its inherent aggregation issues, whereas this study has opted for commodity price indices to overcome the shortcomings in the estimation of S-curves at the commodity level. Practical implications The findings have practical relevance in guiding policy decisions regarding commodity trade, whereas the industry-wise analysis enriches the understanding of the short-term effects of currency depreciation on trade balance dynamics. Originality/value The S-curve hypothesis predicts a negative cross-correlation between a country's current exchange rate and its past trade balance and a positive cross-correlation between the current exchange rate and its future trade balance. Previous empirical S-curve studies had the limitation of assuming symmetry in cross-correlation with both current and future trade balance values.

The Impact of Monetary Policy in Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in the Iraqi Economy for The Period (1990 - 2023) an Econometric Study

The exchange rate is a monetary economic indicator that expresses a country's economic performance. The exchange rate is the basic foundation on which the economies of any country in the world are built, whether developed or developing. As a result, most governments seek to implement regulations that ensure the currency exchange rate remains stable. To avoid the radical changes that currencies will endure during another period. The exchange rate also plays a prominent role in monetary policy, due to its use as an intermediate target, or as a tool, or simply as an indicator of the competitiveness of countries through its impact on components of economic growth such as investment, the degree of economic openness, the inflation rate, the narrow money supply, and the volume of exports. And the volume of imports, and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to try to identify the nature of the exchange rate. As a result, in the first section, we discussed the concept of monetary policy, its most important tools, its most important goals, the exchange rate, and Iraq’s experience in the field of exchange during the period (1990-2023). While the second section was devoted to measuring the impact of monetary policy in achieving stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using the vector model. correcting the mistake. The study concluded with some recommendations to reduce exchange rate fluctuations.

Volatility Behaviour of Currency Exchange Rates in Selected Countries: Long Memory Effect

Volatility Behaviour of Currency Exchange Rates in Selected Countries: Long Memory Effect

Prediction of Currency Exchange Rate Based on Transformers

Prediction of Currency Exchange Rate Based on Transformers

Empirical analysis of the twin deficits hypothesis in the republic of North Macedonia

The twin deficits hypothesis is widely considered one of the most frequently employed phenomena in the economic literature. An econometric analysis of the twin deficit hypothesis is of special importance in understanding the perspective on macroeconomic stability in the Republic of North Macedonia. This paper aims to empirically test the validity of this hypothesis in the Republic of North Macedonia. To do so, we utilized quarterly data on Macedonia’s budget deficit, the current account deficit, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, government expenditure, and money supply, starting from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Through the application of the ARDL model, the study found that between the variables taken into analysis, there exists a short and long-run relationship. More specifically exchange rate, government expenditure, and GDP result in improvement on the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run. While current account deficit, interest rate, and money supply result in worsening the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run.

Comparison of Nonparametric Regression Nadara - Watson Estimator Kernel Function And Local Polynomial Regression In Predicting USD Against IDR

Introduction: Macroeconomic problems such as inflation and exchange rates are often highlighted as benchmarks for achieving economic progress. The stability of both must be monitored by the government in order to control the inflation rate and exchange rate. This instability is a phenomenon of fluctuation, namely the phenomenon of the rise and fall of the exchange rate of a currency based on demand and supply. Given the large impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the economy, the prediction of the wage exchange rate against the US dollar is considered necessary because it is useful to anticipate and minimize bad possibilities that arise. Method: Methods that can be used to analyze fluctuating currency exchange rate data are nonparametric regression, Nadaraya-Watson estimator, Gaussian kernel function, and Local Polynomial Regression. Results and Discussion: The results of a nonparametric regression comparison between the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, Gaussian kernel function, and local polynomial regression were obtained by MAPE of 2.508% and 0.179%, respectively. This shows that the best model uses the local polynomial regression method and predicted USD exchange rate data against IDR using the best model, namely Local polynomial Regression where the MAPE value is less than 10%, which means the prediction rate is very good. Conclusion: The nonparametric regression method of the Nadaraya-Watrson estimator, Gaussian kernel function, and local polynomial regression shows that the best model uses the local polynomial regression method.

Rate of Return (RoR) and Return on Investment (RoI) of Indonesia and India

In the era of globalization and economic liberalization, cross-border investment has become the main strategy for developing countries to increase their economic growth and global competitiveness. This research aims to explore and compare RoR and RoI in Indonesia and India and identify key factors that influence the differences in RoR and RoI between the two countries. This research method uses literature study and conceptual analysis to collect and analyze data from various sources. The research results show that the comparison of RoR and RoI between Indonesia and India involves various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, infrastructure, political stability, investment regulations, labor market, market, and industry, as well as innovation and technology. The two countries show significant differences and similarities in these factors, which influence investment returns. Indonesia has relatively good political stability and a developed capital market, while India stands out in the technology sector and economic reform. However, challenges such as complex regulations, inadequate infrastructure, and fluctuations in currency exchange rates remain obstacles to achieving optimal ROI for investors.

Cost Evaluation of the Ontario Virtual Urgent Care Pilot Program: Population-Based, Matched Cohort Study.

In 2020, the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Ontario, Canada, introduced a virtual urgent care (VUC) pilot program to provide alternative access to urgent care services and reduce the need for in-person emergency department (ED) visits for patients with low acuity health concerns. This study aims to compare the 30-day costs associated with VUC and in-person ED encounters from an MoH perspective. Using administrative data from Ontario (the most populous province of Canada), a population-based, matched cohort study of Ontarians who used VUC services from December 2020 to September 2021 was conducted. As it was expected that VUC and in-person ED users would be different, two cohorts of VUC users were defined: (1) those who were promptly referred to an ED by a VUC provider and subsequently presented to an ED within 72 hours (these patients were matched to in-person ED users with any discharge disposition) and (2) those seen by a VUC provider with no referral to an in-person ED (these patients were matched to patients who presented in-person to the ED and were discharged home by the ED physician). Bootstrap techniques were used to compare the 30-day mean costs of VUC (operational costs to set up the VUC program plus health care expenditures) versus in-person ED care (health care expenditures) from an MoH perspective. All costs are expressed in Canadian dollars (a currency exchange rate of CAD $1=US $0.76 is applicable). We matched 2129 patients who presented to an ED within 72 hours of VUC referral and 14,179 patients seen by a VUC provider without a referral to an ED. Our matched populations represented 99% (2129/2150) of eligible VUC patients referred to the ED by their VUC provider and 98% (14,179/14,498) of eligible VUC patients not referred to the ED by their VUC provider. Compared to matched in-person ED patients, 30-day costs per patient were significantly higher for the cohort of VUC patients who presented to an ED within 72 hours of VUC referral ($2805 vs $2299; difference of $506, 95% CI $139-$885) and significantly lower for the VUC cohort of patients who did not require ED referral ($907 vs $1270; difference of $362, 95% CI 284-$446). Overall, the absolute 30-day costs associated with the 2 VUC cohorts were $18.9 million (ie, $6.0 million + $12.9 million) versus $22.9 million ($4.9 million + $18.0 million) for the 2 in-person ED cohorts. This costing evaluation supports the use of VUC as most complaints were addressed without referral to ED. Future research should evaluate targeted applications of VUC (eg, VUC models led by nurse practitioners or physician assistants with support from ED physicians) to inform future resource allocation and policy decisions.