Excess Stock Research Articles

The Continued Forecasting Effectiveness of a Real Earnings Model of the Equity Premium

This article empirically demonstrates the continued forecasting effectiveness of a simple theory modeling expected stock returns as the sum of the earnings yield on the S&P 500 (measured as the highest past annual earnings on the index divided by the current index value) and a market-based forecast of the inflation rate. Besides having retained its significant one-to-one relationship with subsequent excess annual stock returns, this model’s estimate of the equity premium is discovered to have a correlation of 0.85 with S&P 500 excess returns over subsequent five-year intervals ever since market data for the estimator became available in 1997.

Quantifying investor narratives and their role during COVID‐19

SummaryThis paper elicits and quantifies narratives from open‐ended surveys sent daily to US stockholders during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Using textual analysis, we extract 13 narratives and measure their prevalence over time. A validation analysis confirms the behavioral and economic relevance of the retrieved narratives. Moreover, we find that the narratives contain predictive information for future excess stock and bond returns, and this predictability remains when controlling for contemporaneous information stemming from news and social media. Finally, we find evidence that political identity is reflected in the narrative tone.

HOW DO EMPLOYEE SALARY/BENEFITS AND CSR/ESG PERFORMANCE AFFECT EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY AND FIRM PERFORMANCE-EVIDENCE FROM STEEL INDUSTRY LISTED FIRMS IN TAIWAN

ABSTRACT Based on the data of 45 listed firms in the steel industry on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and the Taipei Exchange Market from 2000 to 2020, this study examines how employee’s salary/benefits and firm’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance affect employee productivity and firm performance. Employee salary/benefits is measured by the salary/benefits per employee, the ratio of salary/benefits to net sales, and the ratio of salary/benefits to net income. CSR is measured by social contribution value, social return on assets and social contribution value per share, current CSR performance, cumulative CSR performance and repeated CSR performance. Employee productivity is measured by net sales per employee, gross profit per employee, after tax net income per employee, and yearly change in market value of common equity per employee. Firm performance is measured by return on assets, return on equity, earnings per share, annualized gross stock return, annualized excess stock return, and Tobin's q. Through correlation analysis and multiple regression estimation, evidence shows that larger employees salaries/benefits and better CSR performance are associated with superior performance on employee productivity and firm performance. Additional tests through various dimensions on CSR performance and ESG ratings show similar outcomes. Keywords Employee Salary/Benefits, CSR, ESG, Employee Productivity, Firm Performance

Compliance of public health facilities with essential medicines and health supplies redistribution guidelines in Mbale district, Eastern Uganda: a mixed-methods study

IntroductionRedistribution of essential medicines and health supplies (EMHS) is a mechanism to address supply chain uncertainty by moving excess stock of health commodities from health facilities that are overstocked to health facilities with shortages, where it is most needed. It prevents the wastage of scarce resources and improves efficiency within a health supply chain system. Many public health facilities in Uganda experience stock-outs, overstocking, and expiry of essential medicines. This study assessed the compliance of public health facilities with the Uganda Ministry of Health redistribution strategy for EMHS in Mbale district, Eastern Uganda.MethodsA mixed-methods study was conducted among 55 respondents at public health facility level and five key informants at the district level. Audio-recorded data were transcribed and coded to develop themes. Thematic analysis was performed using ATLAS.ti Version 8.5. Quantitative data were analysed using IBM SPSS Version 24.0.ResultsAbout a third (33%) of the surveyed health facilities complied with EMHS redistribution guidelines. Respondents agreed that EMHS redistribution had helped reduce health commodity expiries and stock-outs in health facilities. Respondents who did not know about the timely release of funds for redistribution were 68% less likely to comply, and those who said the guidelines were never shared were 88% less likely to comply with the guidelines.ConclusionsCompliance with the EMHS redistribution guidelines was low and associated with failure to share the guidelines with staff and inadequate awareness about release funds for EMHS redistribution. The district local government should allocate more funds to the EMHS redistribution.

Nexus between Investor Sentiment and Equity Returns in Pakistan Stock Exchange

The term Investor Sentiment (IS) depicts the mental activities of investors and reflects their expectations towards the market. It plays a crucial role in their decision making process, which ultimately affects the stock market. The current research attempted to examine the nexus between IS and Equity Returns (ER) of 61 financial and non-financial firms of the KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Data was collected from the official website of PSX and the published annual reports of the companies for the period 2008–2019. Vector Auto Regression Model (VAR) was used to determine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The findings revealed that the Share Turnover (SHT) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicated a significant positive relationship with ER for the KSE-100 index. Similarly, the Price Earnings Ratio (PER) was found to be significantly inversely related to ER. The current study is important both for investors to predict stock trends and for the government's formulation of policies to prevent excessive stock market volatility. It also suggests some important implications for policymakers and investors in order to improve investment policies and make good investment decisions.
 
 Keywords: Investor Sentiment, price earnings ratio, share turnover, money flow index. 
 JEL Codes: E41, E43, E42, E31

The MGPIDP-L project: Potentially inappropriate drug prescribing and its associated factors

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of potentially inappropriate drug prescribing11PIDP: Potentially inappropriate Drug Prescribing (PIDP) using a combination of explicit and implicit criteria in a sample of Lebanese older adults taking 5 or more chronic medications per day in ambulatory care settings and to identify which factors were associated with PIDP. The explicit criteria included five different lists: Beers, Laroche, European Union (EU(7)-PIM list), STOPP/ START, STOPP Frail, and Alert and Mastering of Iatrogenesis issued by the French High Authority of Health. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to compare the potentially inappropriate medications according to each criterion. MethodsData were collected from each patient via a face-to-face interview. Logistic regressions were conducted to evaluate both objectives. ResultsMany factors were positively associated with PIDP. The risk of PIDP was positively associated with age (OR =4.692, 95% CI [1.889–11.655]). Treatment for insomnia doubled the odds of PIDP (P<0.05). Participants who picked their medications from the pharmacy and had excess stock of drugs were at higher risk of having PIDP by 2.042 (95% CI [1.199–3.478]) and 2.965(95% CI [1.133–7.762]) respectively. However, patients with a perception of being heavily medicated and patients with a missed dose in the last two weeks had lower odds of PIDP. ConclusionOur study showed a high prevalence of PIDP in Lebanon, which is associated with various correlates. Selecting the appropriate tools to assess PIDP and providing patient education regarding the risks associated with potentially inappropriate medications are issues to be addressed among older adults.

PENERAPAN METODE NEURAL NETWORK DENGAN STRUKTUR BACKPROPAGATION UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBUTUHAN STOK PADA TOKO UMKM PERLENGKAPAN BAYI BABYQU

At this time Machine Learning especially Deep Learning is developing very quickly in any field, especially in the fields of business, transactions, stock predictions, sales, and stocks and the like. Machine Learning has become a mainstay for facilitating and helping work. At the BabyQu store, the decisions used to carry out stock inventory still use the manual method, and there are several problems that arise including the occurrence of excess stock which makes other storage areas used for excess stock, especially if there are products that have an expiration date, and if there is a shortage of stock, problems will occur that will make consumers who need products or goods go to other places and several other problems that will arise which will cause losses to BabyQu stores, it is necessary to create a system or software that aims to assist BabyQu stores in forecasting stock availability product to overcomesome of these problems. This research was made using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model design and method using Backpropagation as the algorithm because this algorithm can reduce the percentage of errors. The results we got in this study using the 3-3-1 model obtained an accuracy rate of 85.72%, using 550 iterations of epochs, and taking approximately 11.1 seconds.

Pengurangan Bullwhip Effect pada Rantai Pasok Air Minum Dalam Kemasan Menggunakan Metode Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR): Studi Kasus

CV Tirta Alam Dodu is a privately owned company engaged in the beverage industry in the form of AMDK. The problem faced by the company is that there is a difference between demand and sales, or better known as the bullwhip effect problem. The purpose of this study is to reduce the bullwhip effect on the supply chain and optimize the amount of product inventory according to the amount of demand. The method used is the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) method. Based on the results of the research conducted, it can be concluded that the analysis of demand forecasting calculations on AMDK products at CV Tirta Alam Dodu was carried out using historical data on product demand through five analytical methods, including Linear Trend, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, and Winter's Model. The best forecasting resulted in Winter's Model which showed the smallest error value compared to the other four models. The way to minimize so that it does not become a bullwhip effect is to use the CPFR method, where the bullwhip effect value is obtained on glass mineral water products and gallons of mineral water of 0,985 and 0,898, respectively. This result shows that there is no amplification of demand and has reached the company's target, which is to fall below number one. The way to optimize inventory so that there is no excess stock or shortage of stock in the product is to make the amount of inventory based on the amount of demand from the forecasting results plus the safety stock.

Bank funding constraints and stock liquidity

This paper examines the relationship between bank marginal funding constraints and stock liquidity. Using bank credit default swap (CDS) spreads we show that increased funding constraints weaken bank stock liquidity (as measured by liquidity tightness, depth, and resilience). This effect strengthens during crises periods. Deteriorating bank stock liquidity is in turn priced into excess stock returns. In addition, we find that during liquidity crises, monetary expansion can break the relationship between funding costs and stock liquidity. Heightened monetary policy uncertainty, however, strengthens this relation.

Inventory Analysis at the Inspection Services Division using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) and Just in Time (JIT) Approach

In today's highly competitive business environment, companies strive to satisfy customers by delivering high-quality products and services. This holds true for a cargo inspection services company, which relies on procuring raw materials and equipment to ensure optimal service delivery. One crucial aspect of efficient operations is monitoring and controlling the inventory of cans used for sampling. Effective inventory control is essential to avoid excessive or insufficient stock levels, which can result in increased costs. To address this challenge, the company conducted research comparing different inventory control methods: Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) and Just-in-Time (JIT). The objective was to identify the most suitable approach to optimize inventory levels while minimizing costs. By implementing the JIT method, the company was able to determine the precise amount of materials needed, leading to an optimized inventory level. The analysis revealed that implementing JIT resulted in significant cost savings, totaling IDR 2,818,611,323. Based on these findings, it was concluded that the JIT method is the most appropriate inventory control approach for the Inspection Services Division. By adopting JIT, the company can effectively manage inventory levels, reduce costs, and enhance operational efficiency.

Prepacks as a mechanism for resolving financial distress: The evidence

Prepacks as a mechanism for resolving financial distress: The evidence

Analyzing the Inventory System of Medical Medicine in Type B Pharmaceutical Installations at Regional Hospitals Using The ABC-VEN Analysis and Continuous Review System Methods

The Regional General Hospital operates a Pharmacy Installation to oversee the management and regulation of medications. Presently, many pharmaceutical installations are encountering difficulties in effectively managing their medical medicine inventory, leading to excessive stock in some cases and occasional shortages that negatively impact the fulfillment of medical medicine services. This study aims to investigate the inventory management practices at the Regional General Hospital in order to enhance the efficiency of the medical medicine inventory management system. A specific Regional General Hospital was chosen as the focus of this case study. The approach employed to address the issue combines the ABC-VEN analysis with the Continuous Review System method. The proposed inventory medical medicine management design, as revealed by the study, demonstrates the potential to minimize overall inventory management costs and improve the level of medical medicine fulfillment services.

Optimization of the order size concerning losses from the immobilization of working capital in the reserves of material resources

The article discusses approaches to optimizing stocks in the supply chains of large industrial companies. The relevance of this issue concerns primarily the supply of the most expensive categories of material resources, when calculating the order size it is necessary to additionally take into account losses from the immobilization of working capital (opportunity costs). In practice of home and foreign companies, modifications of the optimal order size formula are widely used, with the help of which companies achieve an economic compromise between the level of availability of stocks in the warehouse and the costs of their purchase and maintenance. At the same time, the losses from immobilization, in some cases, can significantly impact the levels of the company&amp;apos;s warehouse stocks (including insurance), and hence the need for logistics infrastructure facilities, such as warehouses, handling equipment etc. To date, there is no unified methodology for assessing losses from the immobilization of working capital in stocks, due to the specifics of companies’ activities in different industries and types of business. In this connection, approaches to the choice of rates for determining the amount of such losses and assessing their impact on the efficiency of companies’ activities are significantly different. Correct accounting of opportunity costs can be used in the development of diversified approaches to planning the need for warehouse stocks, which will allow, on the one hand, to satisfy the orders of internal and external customers, and on the other hand, to prevent the formation of excess stocks. Therefore, the issue of developing industry methods for an adequate assessment of financial losses when working with stocks of material resources is relevant.

ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS APPROACH FOR EVALUATING SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Özet&#x0D; Amaç– Bu çalışmanın amacı, sürdürülebilir tedarik zinciri yönetimi performansını iyileştirmede etkili faktörleri listelemek ve en uygun alternatif faaliyeti belirlemektir.&#x0D; Yöntem– Çalışmada kullanılan veriler inşaat sektöründe çalışan işletme yöneticileri ile yüz yüze görüşmeler ve literatür taraması yoluyla elde edilmiştir. Çok kriterli karar verme yöntemlerinden biri olan ANP yöntemi ile tedarik zinciri yönetimini etkileyen faktörlere öncelik verilmiş ve alternatifler değerlendirilmiştir. On beş alt kriter ve beş alternatif belirlendi.&#x0D; Bulgular – ANP ile sürdürülebilir bir tedarik zinciri yönetimi için karar destek modeli önerisi sunulmuştur. Çalışmanın sonucu, çevresel, ekonomik ve sosyal açıdan sürdürülebilir tedarik zincirlerine ulaşmak için ana itici güçlerin çevresel kalite yönetimi, stratejik yönetim, bilgi paylaşımı, teknoloji verimliliği ve müşterilerin sesi olduğunu göstermektedir.&#x0D; Özgünlük– Sanayileşmenin artan olumsuz etkileriyle birlikte küresel ve çok uluslu şirketler sürdürülebilir tedarik zinciri yönetimine daha fazla önem vermektedir. Şirketler, müşteri memnuniyetini sürdürmek ve verimli bir operasyonel ve finansal sonuç geliştirmek için uygulanabilir ve entegre tedarik zinciri yönetimi geliştirmelidir. Tedarik zinciri yönetimindeki üyelerin sürekli etkileşim içinde olması gerekir. Aksi takdirde müşteri memnuniyetsizliği, dağıtım maliyetleri, stok fazlası gibi çeşitli sorunlarla karşılaşılmaktadır. Sorunlar etkin tedarik zinciri yönetimi ile çözülebilir. Bu çalışma ile, kısıtlı alandaki sürdürülebilir tedarik zinciri yönetiminin inşaat sektörü uygulaması ile sektöre ve yazına katkı sağlaması umulmaktadır.

PENERAPAN DATA MINING DENGAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK MENENTUKAN JUMLAH PENJUALAN OBAT

Anita Farma 2 Pharmacy is one of the private pharmacies in the city of Baubau which still implements a manual system for drug sales management and has not implemented a method to predict future drug sales. So that there are various kinds of drugs that experience excess stock and some drugs experience stock shortages. The purpose of this study is to make it easier to predict future drug stock requirements at Anita Farma 2 Pharmacy using the application of data mining with the web-based Single Moving Average method. The method used in this study is the Single Moving Average (SMA) method which is a technique for calculating the average of a number from the latest actual value, updated as new values become available, carried out to forecast the following periods using the method Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to calculate the accuracy of predictions on the Single Moving Average method. The results of the research system used the Single Moving Average method, namely period 2 (M2) of 23.25%, period 3 (M3) of 26.23% and period 4 (M4) of 28.22% using 5 drug samples with sales for 5 years from January 2017 to December 2021 Among the 3 periods of drug sales forecasting tested using manual calculations with MAPE it can be concluded that period (M2) is better than periods M3 and M4 with a percentage of MAPE "Good Forecasting" of 16.67% and the smallest error rate of 23.25 %.

Pricing uncertainty in the Brazilian stock market: do size and sustainability matter?

This article analyzes the pricing of innovations in the Brazilian stock market during periods of economic uncertainty. Cross-sectional data were analyzed using the generalized method of moments technique, and our findings indicate that during such periods, innovations negatively impact excess stock returns. Furthermore, our findings suggest that innovations during economic uncertainty improve the pricing of financial assets, making them a significant risk factor. These results are corroborated by those for the Corporate Sustainability Index and the Small Caps Index in the robustness analysis.

Unveiling the black swan of the Inflation-Adjusted Real Excess Returns-Risk Nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

The risk-free rates are widely used as benchmark to measure excess stocks returns or excess market returns and contribute a significant role in Asset Pricing Models. The purpose of this study is to scrutinize the risk and real excess portfolio returns using inflation adjusted risk-free rates, a unique measuring technique with a primary focus on the momentum augmented Fama-French five-factor model, utilising monthly data for 1994-2022 from the Pakistan Stock Exchange. Using OLS regression technique, the findings reveal that except profitability, the market, size, value, momentum and investment move largely correlated with excess portfolio stocks returns. The Gibbons, Ross &amp; Shanken test confirms that the momentum augmented Fama-French five-factor model outperforms in the market.

Productivity Analysis Using Pospac Method And Performance Prism At Pt Petrokopindo Cipta Selaras

PT. PCS is an industry that supplies organic fertilizer products. In production activities at PT. PCS onlycalculates productivity from the efficiency of raw material costs, fuel cost efficiency, and profit from sales. And theperformance measurement system at PT. PCS has not displayed optimal industrial performance, from companyleaders, employees or workers, to suppliers or suppliers. With these problems, it is necessary to measure and improveto minimize the decline in productivity, and also to improve the performance of the company's stakeholders at PT.PCS. To find out which month the dominant increase and decrease from the results of the level and productivity indexcan use the POSPAC method and use the performance prism method to analyze the company's performance for eachstakeholder. With this, it can determine the weight of the smallest value of the measurement specification based onthe POSPAC indicator of the achievement of KPIs. From the results of the study, it can be seen that the increase inthe results of the level and productivity index in 2019-2020 was dominant in August, while for the decline in the resultsof the level and productivity index in 2019-2020, it was dominant in October and November. Meanwhile, from theresults obtained in the elaboration of measurement specifications based on POSPAC indicators from KPIachievements, including the percentage of workers who are satisfied and comfortable with the work environment, thepercentage of estimated time to find the cause of the problem, the percentage of product shortages and excess stock,the level of employee ability, the percentage of complaints bill payments. With these problems from the PT.Petrokopindo Cipta Selaras can implement a productivity measurement system using the POSPAC method, andevaluate each performance indicator with a performance prism on a regular basis.

Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index

We investigate the persistence in monthly KSE100 excess stock returns over the Treasury bills rates using non-Gaussian state space or unobservable component model with stable distributions and volatility persistence. Results from our non-Gaussian state space model, which is an improvement over Conard and Kaul (1988), show that the conditional distribution has a stable of 1.748 and normality is rejected even after accounting for GARCH. There exists a statistically significant predictable component in the KSE 100 excess stock returns. The optimal predictor in the unconditional expectation of the series is estimated to be 0.18 percent per annum. An evidence of highly nonconstant scales in different periods of time exhibits a tendency towards stock market crashes which invites remedial policy action.

Memprediksi Produksi Boba Di Xing Fu Tang Di Centre Point Mall Medan Mengguanakang Metode Fuzzy Mamdani

PT. BOBA BAHAGIA MEDAN or known as XING FU TANG is an outlet that sells BOBA drinks, after the success of its first grand opening in 2018 last year at Lippo Plaza Mall Medan. Now it has several outlets in Medan Malls, one of which is at Center Point Mall Medan. With sales that can be said to be quite busy at one of the outlets in Center Point Mall Medan. Of course it is very interesting to do research with the title "Predicting BOBA Production at XING FU TANG CENTER POINT MEDAN Using the Fuzzy Mamdani Method". Having a problem formulation such as in determining the amount of Boba production in accordance with sales every day. The purpose of this study is to find out how the predictions for producing boba are in accordance with sales and existing stock of goods, so that there is no overstock of boba. This study uses the library method, observation and direct interviews with the management of Xing Fu Tang Center Point Mall Medan. The existing data sources were obtained directly from the company where the research was conducted. And the data was analyzed using the Mamdani Decision Support System and Fuzzy Method. The theoretical basis used in this study is to describe theories related to Decision Support Systems and the Mamdani Fuzzy Method. From the research conducted, it can be concluded that Xing Fu Tang Center Point Mall Medan is very concerned about producing Boba so that there are no mistakes and excess stock which can be very influential for the company, because Boba that has been produced must be sold immediately and cannot stay overnight because it will affect the taste. the taste of boba itself and the fatal thing is that it can cause losses to the company