Critical Load Exceedances Research Articles

Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe

Chronic nitrogen (N) deposition is a threat to biodiversity that results from the eutrophication of ecosystems. We studied long-term monitoring data from 28 forest sites with a total of 1,335 permanent forest floor vegetation plots from northern Fennoscandia to southern Italy to analyse temporal trends in vascular plant species cover and diversity. We found that the cover of plant species which prefer nutrient-poor soils (oligotrophic species) decreased the more the measured N deposition exceeded the empirical critical load (CL) for eutrophication effects (P=0.002). Although species preferring nutrient-rich sites (eutrophic species) did not experience a significantly increase in cover (P=0.440), in comparison to oligotrophic species they had a marginally higher proportion among new occurring species (P=0.091). The observed gradual replacement of oligotrophic species by eutrophic species as a response to N deposition seems to be a general pattern, as it was consistent on the European scale. Contrary to species cover changes, neither the decrease in species richness nor of homogeneity correlated with nitrogen CL exceedance (ExCLemp N). We assume that the lack of diversity changes resulted from the restricted time period of our observations. Although existing habitat-specific empirical CL still hold some uncertainty, we exemplify that they are useful indicators for the sensitivity of forest floor vegetation to N deposition.

Nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical loads for nutrient nitrogen in Irish grasslands

High resolution nitrogen (N) deposition maps were developed to assess the exceedance of empirical critical loads of nutrient N for grasslands in Ireland. Nitrogen emissions have remained relatively constant during the past 20yrs and are projected to remain constant under current legislation. Total N deposition (estimated as wet nitrate [NO3−] and ammonium [NH4+] plus dry NO× and NH3) ranged from 2 to 22kgNha−1yr−1 (mean=12kgNha−1yr−1) to grasslands. Empirical critical loads for nutrient N were set at 15kgNha−1yr−1 for both acid and calcareous grasslands; exceedance was observed for ~35% (~2311km2) of mapped acid grasslands. In contrast, only ~9% of calcareous grasslands (~35km2) received N deposition in excess of the critical load. Reduced N deposition (primarily dry NH3) represented the dominant form to grasslands (range 55–90%) owing to significant emissions associated with livestock (primarily cattle). The extent of exceedance in acid grasslands suggests that N deposition to this habitat type may lead to adverse impacts such as a decline in plant species diversity and soil acidification. Further, given that elevated N deposition was dominated by NH3 associated with agricultural emissions rather than long-range transboundary sources, future improvements in air quality need to be driven by national policies.

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM)

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

Present and future nitrogen deposition to national parks in the United States: critical load exceedances

Abstract. National parks in the United States are protected areas wherein the natural habitat is to be conserved for future generations. Deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) transported from areas of human activity (fuel combustion, agriculture) may affect these natural habitats if it exceeds an ecosystem-dependent critical load (CL). We quantify and interpret the deposition to Class I US national parks for present-day and future (2050) conditions using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution over North America. We estimate CL values in the range 2.5–5 kg N ha−1 yr−1 for the different parks to protect the most sensitive ecosystem receptors. For present-day conditions, we find 24 out of 45 parks to be in CL exceedance and 14 more to be marginally so. Many of these are in remote areas of the West. Most (40–85%) of the deposition originates from NOx emissions (fuel combustion). We project future changes in N deposition using representative concentration pathway (RCP) anthropogenic emission scenarios for 2050. These feature 52–73% declines in US NOx emissions relative to present but 19–50% increases in US ammonia (NH3) emissions. Nitrogen deposition at US national parks then becomes dominated by domestic NH3 emissions. While deposition decreases in the East relative to present, there is little progress in the West and increases in some regions. We find that 17–25 US national parks will have CL exceedances in 2050 based on the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Even in total absence of anthropogenic NOx emissions, 14–18 parks would still have a CL exceedance. Returning all parks to N deposition below CL by 2050 would require at least a 50% decrease in US anthropogenic NH3 emissions relative to RCP-projected 2050 levels.

Accounting for canopy drip effects of spatiotemporal trends of the concentrations of N in mosses, atmospheric N depositions and critical load exceedances: a case study from North-Western Germany

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition into terrestrial ecosystems is frequently considered as a threat to phyto-diversity. In previous investigations, the atmospheric N inputs enriched in mosses were recorded in 2004 as part of a regional investigation at 54 locations in north-west Germany and in 2005 at 726 locations across the whole country. This article deals with a study conducted in 2012 comparing N concentrations in mosses sampled within 30 forest stands and in 26 adjacent open fields in north-west Germany. The N concentration in mosses were determined and, by the use of a regression model, converted to N atmospheric deposition values. These deposition estimations enabled to calculate N critical load exceedances. Compared to the average N concentration in mosses sampled in open fields 2012 (7.4 kg/ha*a), the average N concentrations in mosses within adjacent forests were almost four times higher (26.6 kg/ha*a), and the maximum within the stands accounted for approximately 56 kg/ha*a. Compared to 2005, there was a slight decline of the average N deposition by 2.4 kg/ha*a in open fields. However, the average N concentrations in mosses within forests stands in 2012 remained nearly the same since 2004 (29 kg/ha*a). The atmospheric N deposition as estimated from the N concentration in mosses ranged between the minimum and maximum N critical load at 71% of the 56 sites investigated. At 14% of the sites, the N deposition was close to the maximum N critical load value which was exceeded in 11%. The study at hand revealed statistically significant differences between N concentrations measured in mosses sampled within forests and in open fields. The presented findings should be accounted for both modelling and mapping atmospheric N deposition into terrestrial ecosystems on the one hand and related estimations of N critical load exceedances on the other hand.

A simple tool for estimating throughfall nitrogen deposition in forests of western North America using lichens

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition has had substantial impacts on forests of North America. Managers seek to monitor deposition to identify areas of concern and establish critical loads, which define the amount of deposition that can be tolerated by ecosystems without causing substantial harm. We present a new monitoring approach that estimates throughfall inorganic N deposition from N concentration in lichens collected on site. Across 84 study sites in western North America with measured throughfall, a single regression model effectively estimated N deposition from lichen N concentration with an R2 of 0.58 and could be improved with the addition of climate covariates including precipitation seasonality and temperature in the wettest quarter to an R2 of 0.74. By restricting the model to the more intensively sampled region including Oregon, Washington, and California, the R2 increased to 0.77. Because lichens are readily available, analysis is cost-effective, and accuracy is unaffected by mountainous terrain, this method allows development of deposition estimates at sites across broad spatial and topographic scales. Our approach can allow land managers to identify areas at risk of N critical load exceedance, which can be used for planning and management of air pollution impacts.

Upwind impacts of ammonia from an intensive poultry unit

This study investigated potential ammonia impacts on a sand dune nature reserve 600 m upwind of an intensive poultry unit. Ammonia concentrations and total nitrogen deposition were measured over a calendar year. A series of ammonia and nitrogen exposure experiments using dune grassland species were conducted in controlled manipulations and in the field. Ammonia emissions from the intensive poultry unit were detected up to 2.8 km upwind, contributing to exceedance of critical levels of ammonia 800 m upwind and exceedance of critical loads of nitrogen 2.8 km upwind. Emissions contributed 30% of the total N load in parts of the upwind conservation site. In the nitrogen exposure experiments, plants showed elevated tissue nitrogen contents, and responded to ammonia concentrations and nitrogen deposition loads observed in the conservation site by increasing biomass. Estimated long-term impacts suggest an increase in the soil carbon pool of 9% over a 50-year timescale.

Calculation of Sulphur and Nitrogen Deposition with the Frame Model and Assessment of the Exceedance of Critical Loads in Poland

Abstract Sulphur and nitrogen deposition were calculated with the FRAME model and used to assess the exceedances of the critical loads for acidification and eutrophication of natural ecosystems in Poland. For the first time two tools: the FRAME and SONOX models were used jointly to provide information on ecosystems at risk. The FRAME model obtained close agreement with available sulphur and nitrogen wet deposition measurements. The total mass of sulphur deposited in Poland in year 2008 was estimated as 292 Gg S. Total deposition of nitrogen (oxidized + reduced) is 389 Gg N. 11% of the ecosystems in Poland were calculated to be at risk of acidification due to deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. In the case of eutrophication, over 95% of terrestrial ecosystems are at risk due to the large deposition of nitrogen compounds.

Environmental effects of the recent emission changes in China: implications for particulate matter pollution and soil acidification

Driven by a rapid increase of energy consumption and emerging pollution control policies, air pollutant emissions have changed dramatically in China during 2005–2010. This study developed a multi-pollutant emission inventory, and used the community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system to evaluate the impact of the emission changes on particulate matter pollution and soil acidification. During 2005–2010, the emissions of SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 decreased by 14.9%, 15.1% and 11.7%, respectively. In contrast, the emissions of NOX, NMVOC and NH3 increased by 33.8%, 21.0% and 10.4%, respectively. The emission trends differed notably in different regions. Driven by emission changes, PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 2–17 μg m−3 in most of the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, while increasing by 4.5–16 μg m−3 in most of the Sichuan Basin and Eastern Hubei. The changes of PM2.5 emissions led to the decline of primary PM2.5 concentrations in most of Eastern China. As an effect solely of emission changes, nitrate concentrations increased across most of China; sulfate concentrations decreased in most of Eastern China, with the largest reduction in the North China Plain, while they increased in the Sichuan Basin and parts of the Pearl River Delta and Eastern Hubei. The concentrations of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) and the extinction coefficient increased in most of China, especially in the Sichuan Basin and Eastern Hubei, implying that the NOX and NH3 emissions should be reduced simultaneously in China. Combining the acidification effects of S and N, the exceedance of critical loads decreased across the country, but increased in the Sichuan Basin, the Pearl River Delta and Eastern Hubei, where the soil acidification was the most serious. Different control policies need to be implemented in different regions.

Assessing interim objectives for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone of the EU National Emission Ceilings Directive with 2001 and 2012 knowledge

The National Emission Ceilings Directive regulating European Union (EU) Member State emissions of acidifying and eutrophying pollutants as well as ozone precursors was adopted in 2001. Its interim environmental objectives, to be achieved in 2010, consist of a reduction of the exceedance of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication and of critical levels of ground-level ozone relative to 1990. Objectives for acidification and ground-level ozone were to be met in every single receptor grid cell in the European Union. For eutrophication, however, the target was to be met only for the EU area as a whole. Since 2001, reported emissions for 1990 and 2010 as well as knowledge and methodologies and for computing atmospheric dispersion and critical loads and levels have changed. In this paper, it is shown that acidification and eutrophication objectives are largely met when assessing them with the knowledge of 2001. However, with 2012 knowledge the interim objectives for acidification and eutrophication are not met in most of the EU. The objectives for ground-level ozone are met in most EU Member States with both 2001 and present (2012) knowledge, with the exception of the objective for forests, which was still not met in most Member States in 2010. Therefore, it seems prudent that science is employed also in the implementation phase of policy agreements.

Influence of canopy budget model approaches on atmospheric deposition estimates to forests

Accurate quantification of total nitrogen and acidifying deposition is a major source of uncertainty in determining the exceedance of critical loads in forest ecosystems. Monitoring of atmospheric deposition is frequently based on throughfall measurements in combination with the canopy budget model to calculate ion-exchange fluxes between the forest canopy and incident rainfall water. Various approaches for each step in the canopy budget model have been reported and compared, but combinations of different approaches were not yet assessed. Therefore, the present study quantified the range of estimated dry deposition and total deposition resulting from all possible combinations of canopy budget model approaches for three typical case studies: (i) total nitrogen and potentially acidifying deposition onto a forest canopy, (ii) the ratio of these deposition variables between adjacent coniferous and deciduous stands and (iii) the parameters of a deposition time trend analysis. The time step, type of precipitation data and tracer ion used in the model had a significant effect on the findings in the three case studies. In addition, including or excluding canopy leaching of weak acids and canopy uptake of nitrogen during the leafless season largely affected the results, while including or excluding canopy uptake of nitrate generally showed no effect. In general, the use of wet-only precipitation data can be recommended, along with sodium as a tracer ion and the inclusion of weak acids. We conclude that further research should focus on the assumptions of inertness of the tracer ion and the equal deposition efficiency of base cations and the tracer ion and on the quantification of weak acids in rainfall and throughfall water. Since local or tree-species specific effects might influence the results obtained in this study, a similar analysis is recommended for other tree species and regions when using the canopy budget model.

Susceptibility of Forests in the Northeastern USA to Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition: Critical Load Exceedance and Forest Health

The objectives of this study were to assess susceptibility to acidification and nitrogen (N) saturation caused by atmospheric deposition to northeastern US forests, evaluate the benefits and shortcomings of making critical load assessments using regional data, and assess the relationship between expected risk (exceedance) and forest health. We calculated the critical loads of nutrient N and of sulfur (S) + N using the steady-state mass balance method at >4,000 regional and national vegetation and soil monitoring network plots in the northeastern USA. Regional calculations of critical loads necessitate use of soil maps which provide a range for each soil characteristic resulting in a broad range of critical load of S + N and exceedance values. For the scenario most representative of regional conditions, over 80 % of the critical loads fell into the range of 850–2050 eq ha−1 yr−1; at 45 % of the plots, deposition exceeded the critical load. In contrast, the critical load for nutrient N, 200–300 eq ha−1 yr−1, was lower. Site measurements, especially to estimate soil weathering, would increase the certainty of the critical load. We observed significant negative correlations between critical load exceedance and growth (17 species) and crown density (4 species); we observed significant positive correlations of exceedance with declining vigor (four species), with crown dieback (six species) and crown transparency (seven species). Among the species which demonstrate the most significant detrimental responses to atmospheric deposition are balsam fir, red spruce, quaking aspen, and paper birch. These results indicate that significant detrimental responses to atmospheric deposition are being observed across the northeastern USA.

Heavy Metals Exposure on Urbanized and Industrial polluted territories and Effects on Functional State of Systems of different cohorts of population in Crimean region of Ukraine

On urbanized and industrial territories in Crimean region of Ukraine with exceedances of critical loads for heavy metals (HM) different cohorts of population were examined. Content of toxic HM (Hg, Pb, Cd, Ni) in hair of healthy children and adult mainly did not exceeded, but level of essential HM (Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn) frequently was decreased. The differences of HM content in some special cohorts (mental retardation, autonomic nervous system dysfunction, sportsman) was revealed. Content of HM in 375 samples of venous and umbilical cord blood, placenta, breast milk of puerperants and their new-born children strongly varied. Correlation analysis by Spearman and multiple regression analysis shown not so close but statistically significant relationships between levels of HM and functional state of central and autonomic nervous, immune and cardio-vascular systems, their different sensitivity to different HM in distinct cohorts of population.

Relationship between critical load exceedances and empirical impact indicators at Integrated Monitoring sites across Europe

Critical loads for acidification and eutrophication and their exceedances were determined for a selection of ecosystem effects monitoring sites in the Integrated Monitoring programme (UNECE ICP IM). The level of protection of these sites with respect to acidifying and eutrophying deposition was estimated for 2000 and 2020. In 2020 more sites were protected from acidification (67%) than in 2000 (61%). However, due to the sensitivity of the sites, even the maximum technically feasible emission reductions scenario would not protect all sites from acidification. In 2000, around 20% of the IM sites were protected from eutrophication. In 2020, under reductions in accordance with current legislation, about one third of the sites would be protected, and at best, with the maximum technically feasible reductions, half of the sites would be protected from eutrophication. Data from intensively monitored sites, such as those in ICP IM, provide a connection between modelled critical thresholds and empirical observations, and thus an indication of the applicability of critical load estimates for natural ecosystems. Across the sites, there was good correlation between the exceedance of critical loads for acidification and key acidification parameters in runoff water, both with annual mean fluxes and concentrations. There was also evidence of a link between exceedances of critical loads of nutrient nitrogen and nitrogen leaching. The collected empirical data of the ICP IM thus allow testing and validation of key concepts used in the critical load calculations. This increases confidence in the European-scale critical loads mapping used in integrated assessment modelling to support emission reduction agreements.

The influence of model grid resolution on estimation of national scale nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical loads

Abstract. The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) was applied to model the spatial distribution of reactive nitrogen deposition and air concentration over the United Kingdom at a 1 km spatial resolution. The modelled deposition and concentration data were gridded at resolutions of 1 km, 5 km and 50 km to test the sensitivity of calculations of the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen deposition to the deposition data resolution. The modelled concentrations of NO2 were validated by comparison with measurements from the rural sites in the national monitoring network and were found to achieve better agreement with the high resolution 1 km data. High resolution plots were found to represent a more physically realistic distribution of reactive nitrogen air concentrations and deposition resulting from use of 1 km resolution precipitation and emissions data as compared to 5 km resolution data. Summary statistics for national scale exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen deposition were not highly sensitive to the grid resolution of the deposition data but did show greater area exceedance with coarser grid resolution due to spatial averaging of high nitrogen deposition hot spots. Local scale deposition at individual Sites of Special Scientific Interest and high precipitation upland sites was sensitive to choice of grid resolution of deposition data. Use of high resolution data tended to generate lower deposition values in sink areas for nitrogen dry deposition (Sites of Scientific Interest) and higher values in high precipitation upland areas. In areas with generally low exceedance (Scotland) and for certain vegetation types (montane), the exceedance statistics were more sensitive to model data resolution.

High resolution mapping of total deposition of acidifying pollutants

A framework has been developed to estimate dry and wet deposition over Southern Belgium for a variety of acidifying substances on a 5 × 5 km2 grid. Concentrations of different compounds in the atmosphere or in the precipitation are provided by the measurement networks (both stations and gauges) and are interpolated over Southern Belgium. Dry deposition velocities are calculated using local meteorology and land use information, following the approach described in Zhang et al. (2001, 2003). Local precipitation is provided by merged radar-gauge observations. This is the first high resolution framework for Southern Belgium computing both time- and space-dependent deposition, using a modified kriging interpolation method (for SO2 and NO2), as well as radar-based precipitation. Estimated dry and wet depositions are compared with long range transport (LRT) model results, based on the European emission inventories. Although a good agreement is observed between our results and LRT model results on the annual totals averaged over Southern Belgium, the extent of agreement for the spatial variability of the annual deposition differs significantly from one pollutant to another. This new framework provides consistent high resolution maps for several pollutants, while improving the mapping of dry and wet deposition in Southern Belgium, in order to assess critical loads exceedances.

Determination of regional acidification factors for Argentina

Purpose In the last decade, the use of life cycle assessment (LCA) as a tool for selection between different technologies or products fulfilling the same function has spread rapidly in Latin American countries. However, this accelerated growth in the use of LCA has not always been supported with progress in construction of local inventories or the development of impact assessment methods that consider local and regional characteristics of the sites where technologies, products, and activities or services are being produced or developed. The aim of this study is to propose a local methodology to estimate regional factors for the terrestrial acidification impact category in Argentina based on the critical load exceedance in sensitive areas.

Past, Present, and Future Exceedance of Critical Loads of Acidity for Surface Waters in Finland

A critical load is a deposition limit below which harmful effects for a given ecosystem do not occur; the approach has underpinned European sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) effects-based emission reduction policies during the last two decades. Surface waters are an important resource in Finland, as such the development of models and determination of critical loads has played a central role in supporting their recovery from acidification or preservation of ecosystem health. Critical loads of acidity for Finnish lakes were determined using the steady-state First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model in conjunction with comprehensive national surveys of surface waters (headwater lakes; n = 1066) and soils. In the 1980s almost 60% of the study lakes were exceeded, impacting brown trout and perch populations. The steep decline in emissions and acidic (S and N) deposition during the last two decades has reduced exceedance to <10%, and by 2020 exceedance is predicted to reach preindustrial (1880) levels. In concert with these reductions, chemical and biological recovery has been observed. The critical load approach has been instrumental in assessing impacts to surface waters in Finland and directing effects-based emission reduction policies.

Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Implications for public health, soil acidification, and global temperature

Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1–7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.

Assessing the effect of broadleaf woodland expansion on acidic dry deposition and streamwater acidification

The study aim was to determine whether enhanced dry deposition of acidic atmospheric pollutants by broadleaf woodland expansion could increase the potential for acidification of surface waters in acid-sensitive areas. Dry sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition was modelled with the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model using a roughness length value calculated specifically for birchwoods. Two scenarios were investigated for an acid-sensitive area in Scotland where broadleaf woodland expansion, mainly as birchwood, is occurring: (1) 2002 emissions and broadleaf woodland cover of 5.6%; (2) 2020 projected emissions and broadleaf cover of 29%. The roughness length calculated for birch with Raupach’s simplified drag-partition model was 0.73 m, lower than the value of 1.0 m for conifers which is the default for forest land cover in FRAME. Modelled dry S and N deposition increased between 2002 and 2020 from 8.7 to 29 × 10 −3 keq ha −1 year −1 of H +. However, modelled total dry and wet non-marine S and N deposition decreased during the same period from 1070 to 682 × 10 −3 keq ha −1 year −1 of H + due to the lower projected emissions in 2020 and the dominance of wet deposition in the remote and upland study area (mean annual rainfall 2275 mm). The modelled total non-marine S and N deposition was used to calculate streamwater critical loads exceedance with the First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model for five catchments in the study area. The modelled deposition for both the 2002 and 2020 scenarios was less than the calculated streamwater critical loads so the catchments were not considered at risk of streamwater acidification under the projected future emissions and increased broadleaf woodland cover. Nevertheless, broadleaf expansion could pose a greater risk of acidification in acid-sensitive areas with lower rainfall, closer to pollutant sources, where dry deposition accounts for a higher proportion of total S and N deposition.