Estimates Of Evolutionary Rates Research Articles

Revisiting the origins of the Sobemovirus genus: A case for ancient origins of plant viruses.

The discrepancy between short- and long-term rate estimates, known as the time-dependent rate phenomenon (TDRP), poses a challenge to extrapolating evolutionary rates over time and reconstructing evolutionary history of viruses. The TDRP reveals a decline in evolutionary rate estimates with the measurement timescale, explained empirically by a power-law rate decay, notably observed in animal and human viruses. A mechanistic evolutionary model, the Prisoner of War (PoW) model, has been proposed to address TDRP in viruses. Although TDRP has been studied in animal viruses, its impact on plant virus evolutionary history remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the consequences of TDRP in plant viruses by applying the PoW model to reconstruct the evolutionary history of sobemoviruses, plant pathogens with significant importance due to their impact on agriculture and plant health. Our analysis showed that the Sobemovirus genus dates back over four million years, indicating an ancient origin. We found evidence that supports deep host jumps to Poaceae, Fabaceae, and Solanaceae occurring between tens to hundreds of thousand years ago, followed by specialization. Remarkably, the TDRP-corrected evolutionary history of sobemoviruses was extended far beyond previous estimates that had suggested their emergence nearly 9,000 years ago, a time coinciding with the Neolithic period in the Near East. By incorporating sequences collected through metagenomic analyses, the resulting phylogenetic tree showcases increased genetic diversity, reflecting a deep history of sobemovirus species. We identified major radiation events beginning between 4,600 to 2,000 years ago, which aligns with the Neolithic period in various regions, suggesting a period of rapid diversification from then to the present. Our findings make a case for the possibility of deep evolutionary origins of plant viruses.

Accounting for Within-Species Variation in Continuous Trait Evolution on a Phylogenetic Network

Within-species trait variation may be the result of genetic variation, environmental variation, or measurement error, for example. In phylogenetic comparative studies, failing to account for within-species variation has many adverse effects, such as increased error in testing hypotheses about evolutionary correlations, biased estimates of evolutionary rates, and inaccurate inference of the mode of evolution. These adverse effects were demonstrated in studies that considered a tree-like underlying phylogeny. Comparative methods on phylogenetic networks are still in their infancy. The impact of within-species variation on network-based methods has not been studied. Here, we introduce a phylogenetic linear model in which the phylogeny can be a network to account for within-species variation in the continuous response trait assuming equal within-species variances across species. We show how inference based on the individual values can be reduced to a problem using species-level summaries, even when the within-species variance is estimated. Our method performs well under various simulation settings and is robust when within-species variances are unequal across species. When phenotypic (within-species) correlations differ from evolutionary (between-species) correlations, estimates of evolutionary coefficients are pulled towards the phenotypic coefficients for all methods we tested. Also, evolutionary rates are either underestimated or overestimated, depending on the mismatch between phenotypic and evolutionary relationships. We applied our method to morphological and geographical data from Polemonium. We find a strong negative correlation of leaflet size with elevation, despite a positive correlation within species. Our method can explore the role of gene flow in trait evolution by comparing the fit of a network to that of a tree. We find marginal evidence for leaflet size being affected by gene flow and support for previous observations on the challenges of using individual continuous traits to infer inheritance weights at reticulations. Our method is freely available in the Julia package PhyloNetworks.

Recoverability of ancestral recombination graph topologies

Recombination is a powerful evolutionary process that shapes the genetic diversity observed in the populations of many species. Reconstructing genealogies in the presence of recombination from sequencing data is a very challenging problem, as this relies on mutations having occurred on the correct lineages in order to detect the recombination and resolve the ordering of coalescence events in the local trees. We investigate the probability of reconstructing the true topology of ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) under the coalescent with recombination and gene conversion. We explore how sample size and mutation rate affect the inherent uncertainty in reconstructed ARGs, which sheds light on the theoretical limitations of ARG reconstruction methods. We illustrate our results using estimates of evolutionary rates for several organisms; in particular, we find that for parameter values that are realistic for SARS-CoV-2, the probability of reconstructing genealogies that are close to the truth is low.

Estimation of Evolutionary Rates for Mitochondrial Control Region in Sibling Species of Myodes (Rodentia) by Calibrations Based on Island Formation

The sequence variation of the mtDNA control region (CR) was analyzed for the two sibling species of Myodes (the gray-sided vole M. rufocanus and the dark red-backed vole M. rex) in Hokkaido mainland and its adjacent islands of Japan. The evolutionary rate of the CR was estimated using the island–island connections during the Quaternary. The 737–741-bp were determined for 1196 individuals of M. rufocanus from 65 localities and 315 individuals of M. rex from 26 localities. The CR was highly variable in both species: 330 and 79 haplotypes were identified for M. rufocanus and M. rex, respectively. The genetic distances were estimated for six island population pairs of M. rufocanus and two pairs of M. rex. The genetic distances log-linearly increased with an increase in the separation time. Although the evolutionary rates (substitutions/site/Myr) varied around 10 000 years ago, they became less variable further back in time. The representative evolutionary rate was estimated at 0.196/Myr with 0.139–0.254 (95% CI) for M. rufocanus 40 000 years ago and 0.101/Myr with 0.068–0.134 (95% CI) for M. rex 120 000 years ago. These estimates open opportunities for comparative studies on the evolutionary history of the sibling species.

Evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2 increases during zoonotic infection of farmed mink.

To investigate genetic signatures of adaptation to the mink host, we characterised the evolutionary rate heterogeneity in mink-associated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoV-2). In 2020, the first detected anthropozoonotic spillover event of SARS-CoV-2 occurred in mink farms throughout Europe and North America. Both spill-back of mink-associated lineages into the human population and the spread into the surrounding wildlife were reported, highlighting the potential formation of a zoonotic reservoir. Our findings suggest that the evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2 underwent an episodic increase upon introduction into the mink host before returning to the normal range observed in humans. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 lineages could have circulated in the mink population for a month before detection, and during this period, evolutionary rate estimates were between 3 × 10-3 and 1.05 × 10-2 (95 per cent HPD, with a mean rate of 6.59 × 10-3) a four- to thirteen-fold increase compared to that in humans. As there is evidence for unique mutational patterns within mink-associated lineages, we explored the emergence of four mink-specific Spike protein amino acid substitutions Y453F, S1147L, F486L, and Q314K. We found that mutation Y453F emerged early in multiple mink outbreaks and that mutations F486L and Q314K may co-occur. We suggest that SARS-CoV-2 undergoes a brief, but considerable, increase in evolutionary rate in response to greater selective pressures during species jumps, which may lead to the occurrence of mink-specific mutations. These findings emphasise the necessity of ongoing surveillance of zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 infections in the future.

Repeated evolution of similar phenotypes: Integrating comparative methods with developmental pathways.

Repeated phenotypes, often referred to as 'homoplasies' in cladistic analyses, may evolve through changes in developmental processes. Genetic bases of recurrent evolution gained attention and have been studied in the past years using approaches that combine modern analytical phylogenetic tools with the stunning assemblage of new information on developmental mechanisms. In this review, we evaluated the topic under an integrated perspective, revisiting the classical definitions of convergence and parallelism and detailing comparative methods used to evaluate evolution of repeated phenotypes, which include phylogenetic inference, estimates of evolutionary rates and reconstruction of ancestral states. We provide examples to illustrate how a given methodological approach can be used to identify evolutionary patterns and evaluate developmental mechanisms associated with the intermittent expression of a given trait along the phylogeny. Finally, we address why repeated trait loss challenges strict definitions of convergence and parallelism, discussing how changes in developmental pathways might explain the high frequency of repeated trait loss in specific lineages.

Reversions to consensus are positively selected in HIV-1 and bias substitution rate estimates.

Human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) is a rapidly evolving virus able to evade host immunity through rapid adaptation during chronic infection. The HIV-1 group M has diversified since its zoonosis into several subtypes at a rate of the order of 10-3 changes per site per year. This rate varies between different parts of the genome, and its inference is sensitive to the timescale and diversity spanned by the sequence data used. Higher rates are estimated on short timescales and particularly for within-host evolution, while rate estimates spanning decades or the entire HIV-1 pandemic tend to be lower. The underlying causes of this difference are not well understood. We investigate here the role of rapid reversions toward a preferred evolutionary sequence state on multiple timescales. We show that within-host reversion mutations are under positive selection and contribute substantially to sequence turnover, especially at conserved sites. We then use the rates of reversions and non-reversions estimated from longitudinal within-host data to parameterize a phylogenetic sequence evolution model. Sequence simulation of this model on HIV-1 phylogenies reproduces diversity and apparent evolutionary rates of HIV-1 in gag and pol, suggesting that a tendency to rapidly revert to a consensus-like state can explain much of the time dependence of evolutionary rate estimates in HIV-1.

Analysis of lineage-specific protein family variability in prokaryotes combined with evolutionary reconstructions

BackgroundEvolutionary rate is a key characteristic of gene families that is linked to the functional importance of the respective genes as well as specific biological functions of the proteins they encode. Accurate estimation of evolutionary rates is a challenging task that requires precise phylogenetic analysis. Here we present an easy to estimate protein family level measure of sequence variability based on alignment column homogeneity in multiple alignments of protein sequences from Clade-Specific Clusters of Orthologous Genes (csCOGs).ResultsWe report genome-wide estimates of variability for 8 diverse groups of bacteria and archaea and investigate the connection between variability and various genomic and biological features. The variability estimates are based on homogeneity distributions across amino acid sequence alignments and can be obtained for multiple groups of genomes at minimal computational expense. About half of the variance in variability values can be explained by the analyzed features, with the greatest contribution coming from the extent of gene paralogy in the given csCOG. The correlation between variability and paralogy appears to originate, primarily, not from gene duplication, but from acquisition of distant paralogs and xenologs, introducing sequence variants that are more divergent than those that could have evolved in situ during the lifetime of the given group of organisms. Both high-variability and low-variability csCOGs were identified in all functional categories, but as expected, proteins encoded by integrated mobile elements as well as proteins involved in defense functions and cell motility are, on average, more variable than proteins with housekeeping functions. Additionally, using linear discriminant analysis, we found that variability and fraction of genomes carrying a given gene are the two variables that provide the best prediction of gene essentiality as compared to the results of transposon mutagenesis in Sulfolobus islandicus.ConclusionsVariability, a measure of sequence diversity within an alignment relative to the overall diversity within a group of organisms, offers a convenient proxy for evolutionary rate estimates and is informative with respect to prediction of functional properties of proteins. In particular, variability is a strong predictor of gene essentiality for the respective organisms and indicative of sub- or neofunctionalization of paralogs.

Environmental niche and flight intensity are associated with molecular evolutionary rates in a large avian radiation

BackgroundMetabolic activity and environmental energy are two of the most studied putative drivers of molecular evolutionary rates. Their extensive study, however, has resulted in mixed results and has rarely included the exploration of interactions among various factors impacting molecular evolutionary rates across large clades. Taking the diverse avian family Furnariidae as a case study, we examined the association between several estimates of molecular evolutionary rates with proxies of metabolic demands imposed by flight (wing loading and wing shape) and proxies of environmental energy across the geographic ranges of species (temperature and UV radiation).ResultsWe found weak evidence of a positive effect of environmental and morphological variables on mitochondrial substitution rates. Additionally, we found that temperature and UV radiation interact to explain molecular rates at nucleotide sites affected by selection and population size (non-synonymous substitutions), contrary to the expectation of their impact on sites associated with mutation rates (synonymous substitutions). We also found a negative interaction between wing shape (as described by the hand-wing index) and body mass explaining mitochondrial molecular rates, suggesting molecular signatures of positive selection or reduced population sizes in small-bodied species with greater flight activity.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the demands of flight and environmental energy pose multiple evolutionary pressures on the genome either by driving mutation rates or via their association with natural selection or population size. Data from whole genomes and detailed physiology across taxa will bring a more complete picture of the impact of metabolism, population size, and the environment on avian genome evolution.

Shifts in morphological covariation and evolutionary rates across multiple acquisitions of the trap-jaw mechanism in Strumigenys.

A long‐standing question in comparative biology is how the evolution of biomechanical systems influences morphological evolution. The need for functional fidelity implies that the evolution of such systems should be associated with tighter morphological covariation, which may promote or dampen rates of morphological evolution. I examine this question across multiple evolutionary origins of the trap‐jaw mechanism in the genus Strumigenys. Trap‐jaw ants have latch‐mediated, spring‐actuated systems that amplify the power output of their mandibles. I use Bayesian estimates of covariation and evolutionary rates to test the hypotheses that the evolution of this high‐performance system is associated with tighter morphological covariation in the head and mandibles relative to nontrap‐jaw forms and that this leads to shifts in rates of morphological evolution. Contrary to these hypotheses, there is no evidence of a large‐scale shift to higher covariation in trap‐jaw forms, while different traits show both increased and decreased evolutionary rates between forms. These patterns may be indicative of many‐to‐one mapping and/or mechanical sensitivity in the trap‐jaw LaMSA system. Overall, it appears that the evolution of trap‐jaw forms in Strumigenys did not require a correlated increase in morphological covariation, partly explaining the proclivity with which the system has evolved.

Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza.

High-throughput sequencing enables rapid genome sequencing during infectious disease outbreaks and provides an opportunity to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in near real-time. One difficulty of undertaking evolutionary analyses over short timescales is the dependency of the inferred evolutionary parameters on the timespan of observation. Crucially, there are an increasing number of molecular clock analyses using external evolutionary rate priors to infer evolutionary parameters. However, it is not clear which rate prior is appropriate for a given time window of observation due to the time-dependent nature of evolutionary rate estimates. Here, we characterize the molecular evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza during the first 12 months of their respective pandemics. We use Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate the dates of emergence, evolutionary rates, and growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 over time and investigate how varying sampling window and data set sizes affect the accuracy of parameter estimation. We further use a generalized McDonald–Kreitman test to estimate the number of segregating nonneutral sites over time. We find that the inferred evolutionary parameters for both pandemics are time dependent, and that the inferred rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 decline by ∼50% and ∼100%, respectively, over the course of 1 year. After at least 4 months since the start of sequence sampling, inferred growth rates and emergence dates remain relatively stable and can be inferred reliably using a logistic growth coalescent model. We show that the time dependency of the mean substitution rate is due to elevated substitution rates at terminal branches which are 2–4 times higher than those of internal branches for both viruses. The elevated rate at terminal branches is strongly correlated with an increasing number of segregating nonneutral sites, demonstrating the role of purifying selection in generating the time dependency of evolutionary parameters during pandemics.

Causes and Consequences of Apparent Timescaling Across All Estimated Evolutionary Rates

Evolutionary rates play a central role in connecting micro- and macroevolution. All evolutionary rate estimates, including rates of molecular evolution, trait evolution, and lineage diversification, share a similar scaling pattern with time: The highest rates are those measured over the shortest time interval. This creates a disconnect between micro- and macroevolution, although the pattern is the opposite of what some might expect: Patterns of change over short timescales predict that evolution has tremendous potential to create variation and that potential is barely tapped by macroevolution. In this review, we discuss this shared scaling pattern across evolutionary rates. We break down possible explanations for scaling into two categories, estimation error and model misspecification, and discuss how both apply to each type of rate. We also discuss the consequences of this ubiquitous pattern, which can lead to unexpected results when comparing ratesover different timescales. Finally, after addressing purely statistical concerns, we explore a few possibilities for a shared unifying explanation across the three types of rates that results from a failure to fully understand and account for how biological processes scale over time.

Ecological and biogeographic drivers of biodiversity cannot be resolved using clade age-richness data

Estimates of evolutionary diversification rates – speciation and extinction – have been used extensively to explain global biodiversity patterns. Many studies have analyzed diversification rates derived from just two pieces of information: a clade’s age and its extant species richness. This “age-richness rate” (ARR) estimator provides a convenient shortcut for comparative studies, but makes strong assumptions about the dynamics of species richness through time. Here we demonstrate that use of the ARR estimator in comparative studies is problematic on both theoretical and empirical grounds. We prove mathematically that ARR estimates are non-identifiable: there is no information in the data for a single clade that can distinguish a process with positive net diversification from one where net diversification is zero. Using paleontological time series, we demonstrate that the ARR estimator has no predictive ability for real datasets. These pathologies arise because the ARR inference procedure yields “point estimates” that have been computed under a saturated statistical model with zero degrees of freedom. Although ARR estimates remain useful in some contexts, they should be avoided for comparative studies of diversification and species richness.

Genomes of Anguillid Herpesvirus 1 Strains Reveal Evolutionary Disparities and Low Genetic Diversity in the Genus Cyprinivirus

Anguillid herpesvirus 1 (AngHV-1) is a pathogen of eels and a member of the genus Cyprinivirus in the family Alloherpesviridae. We have compared the biological and genomic features of different AngHV-1 strains, focusing on their growth kinetics in vitro and genetic content, diversity, and recombination. Comparisons based on three core genes conserved among alloherpesviruses revealed that AngHV-1 exhibits a slower rate of change and less positive selection than other cypriniviruses. We propose that this may be linked to major differences in host species and corresponding epidemiological circumstances. Efforts to derive evolutionary rate estimates for cypriniviruses under various theoretical models were ultimately unrewarding. We highlight the potential value of future collaborative efforts towards generating short-term evolutionary rate estimates based on known sequence sampling dates. Finally, we revealed that there is significantly less genetic diversity in core gene sequences within cyprinivirus species clades compared to species in the family Herpesviridae. This suggests that cyprinivirus species may have undergone much more vigorous purifying selection post species clade divergence. We discuss whether this may be linked to biological and anthropogenic factors or to sampling bias, and we propose that the comparison of short-term evolutionary rates between species may provide further insights into these differences.

Influence of Quaternary environmental changes on mole populations inferred from mitochondrial sequences and evolutionary rate estimation

Quaternary environmental changes fundamentally influenced the genetic diversity of temperate-zone terrestrial animals, including those in the Japanese Archipelago. The genetic diversity of present-day populations is taxon- and region-specific, but its determinants are poorly understood. Here, we analyzed cytochrome b gene (Cytb) sequences (1140 bp) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to elucidate the factors determining the genetic variation in three species of large moles: Mogera imaizumii and Mogera wogura, which occur in central and southern mainland Japan (Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu), and Mogera robusta, which occurs on the nearby Asian continent. Network construction with the Cytb sequences revealed 10 star-shaped clusters with apparent geographic affinity. Mismatch distribution analysis showed that modes of pairwise nucleotide differences (τ values) were grouped into five classes in terms of the level, implying the occurrence of five stages for rapid expansion. It is conceivable that severe cold periods and subsequent warm periods during the late Quaternary were responsible for the population expansion events. The first and third oldest events included island-derived haplotypes, indicative of the involvement of land bridge formation between remote islands, hence suggesting an association of the ends of the penultimate (PGM, ca. 130,000 years ago) and last (LGM, ca. 15,000 years ago) glacial maxima, respectively. Since the third event was followed by the fourth, it is plausible that the termination of the Younger Dryas and subsequent abrupt warming ca. 11,500 years ago facilitated the fourth expansion event. The second event most likely corresponded to early marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 (ca. 53,000 years ago) when the glaciation and subsequent warming period were predicted to have influenced biodiversity. Utilization of the critical times of 130,000, 53,000, 15,000, and 11,500 years ago as calibration points yielded evolutionary rates of 0.03, 0.045, 0.10 and 0.10 substitutions/site/million years, respectively, showing a time-dependent manner whose pattern was similar to that seen in small rodents reported in our previous studies. The age of the fifth expansion event was calculated to be 5800 years ago with a rate of 0.10 substitutions/site/million years ago during the mid-Holocene, suggestive of the influence of humans or other unspecified reasons, such as the Jomon marine transgression.

Molecules and Fossils Tell Distinct Yet Complementary Stories of Mammal Diversification

Reconstructing how biodiversity arose is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biologists. Yet whether the fossil record or time-calibrated phylogenies of living species yield comparable evolutionary rate estimates is controversial, and possibly affected by the temporal scale of question being asked. Here we investigate diversification timing across mammals by comparing rate signatures in a credible set of molecular timetrees (N =5,911 species, ~ 70% from DNA) to those in fossil genus durations (N =5,262). Fossil-corrected and timetree-based rate estimates begin converging ~23 million years ago (Ma) and are equal at the present, in accord with progressively fewer unsampled extinctions ‘pulling’ on the timetree rates toward the present to cause underestimates. ‘Pushing’ the pulled timetree rates by means of fossil-recorded extinctions identifies a major pulse of speciation ~60 Ma, soon after the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event, due to the radiation of fossil stem lineages. For groups without substantial fossil records, all is not lost, however. We show that species-specific ‘tip’ rates of speciation are unbiased estimators of recent evolutionary processes; in turn, the clade-level skewness of tip rates approximates the extent of past shifts in net diversification. Molecular timetrees need fossil-correction to address deep-time questions, but timetrees are sufficient for shallower time questions for which extinctions are fewer and ecological diversity can be fully sampled.

Sphenodontian phylogeny and the impact of model choice in Bayesian morphological clock estimates of divergence times and evolutionary rates

BackgroundThe vast majority of all life that ever existed on earth is now extinct and several aspects of their evolutionary history can only be assessed by using morphological data from the fossil record. Sphenodontian reptiles are a classic example, having an evolutionary history of at least 230 million years, but currently represented by a single living species (Sphenodon punctatus). Hence, it is imperative to improve the development and implementation of probabilistic models to estimate evolutionary trees from morphological data (e.g., morphological clocks), which has direct benefits to understanding relationships and evolutionary patterns for both fossil and living species. However, the impact of model choice on morphology-only datasets has been poorly explored.ResultsHere, we investigate the impact of a wide array of model choices on the inference of evolutionary trees and macroevolutionary parameters (divergence times and evolutionary rates) using a new data matrix on sphenodontian reptiles. Specifically, we tested different clock models, clock partitioning, taxon sampling strategies, sampling for ancestors, and variations on the fossilized birth-death (FBD) tree model parameters through time. We find a strong impact on divergence times and background evolutionary rates when applying widely utilized approaches, such as allowing for ancestors in the tree and the inappropriate assumption of diversification parameters being constant through time. We compare those results with previous studies on the impact of model choice to molecular data analysis and provide suggestions for improving the implementation of morphological clocks. Optimal model combinations find the radiation of most major lineages of sphenodontians to be in the Triassic and a gradual but continuous drop in morphological rates of evolution across distinct regions of the phenotype throughout the history of the group.ConclusionsWe provide a new hypothesis of sphenodontian classification, along with detailed macroevolutionary patterns in the evolutionary history of the group. Importantly, we provide suggestions to avoid overestimated divergence times and biased parameter estimates using morphological clocks. Partitioning relaxed clocks offers methodological limitations, but those can be at least partially circumvented to reveal a detailed assessment of rates of evolution across the phenotype and tests of evolutionary mosaicism.

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in the first few months since its emergence.

During the first few months of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) evolution in a new host, contrasting hypotheses have been proposed about the way the virus has evolved and diversified worldwide. The aim of this study was to perform a comprehensive evolutionary analysis to describe the human outbreak and the evolutionary rate of different genomic regions of SARS‐CoV‐2. The molecular evolution in nine genomic regions of SARS‐CoV‐2 was analyzed using three different approaches: phylogenetic signal assessment, emergence of amino acid substitutions, and Bayesian evolutionary rate estimation in eight successive fortnights since the virus emergence. All observed phylogenetic signals were very low and tree topologies were in agreement with those signals. However, after 4 months of evolution, it was possible to identify regions revealing an incipient viral lineage formation, despite the low phylogenetic signal since fortnight 3. Finally, the SARS‐CoV‐2 evolutionary rate for regions nsp3 and S, the ones presenting greater variability, was estimated as 1.37 × 10−3 and 2.19 × 10−3 substitution/site/year, respectively. In conclusion, results from this study about the variable diversity of crucial viral regions and determination of the evolutionary rate are consequently decisive to understand essential features of viral emergence. In turn, findings may allow the first‐time characterization of the evolutionary rate of S protein, crucial for vaccine development.

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 including the role of reservoir species, the role of recombination and its time of divergence from animal viruses. We find that the sarbecoviruses-the viral subgenus containing SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2-undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatially structured genetic diversity on a regional scale in China. SARS-CoV-2 itself is not a recombinant of any sarbecoviruses detected to date, and its receptor-binding motif, important for specificity to human ACE2 receptors, appears to be an ancestral trait shared with bat viruses and not one acquired recently via recombination. To employ phylogenetic dating methods, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Bayesian evolutionary rate and divergence date estimates were shown to be consistent for these three approaches and for two different prior specifications of evolutionary rates based on HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV. Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 1879-1999), 1969 (95% HPD: 1930-2000) and 1982 (95% HPD: 1948-2009), indicating that the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades.

Temporal signal and the phylodynamic threshold of SARS-CoV-2.

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 outbreak marks the first time that large amounts of genome sequence data have been generated and made publicly available in near real time. Early analyses of these data revealed low sequence variation, a finding that is consistent with a recently emerging outbreak, but which raises the question of whether such data are sufficiently informative for phylogenetic inferences of evolutionary rates and time scales. The phylodynamic threshold is a key concept that refers to the point in time at which sufficient molecular evolutionary change has accumulated in available genome samples to obtain robust phylodynamic estimates. For example, before the phylodynamic threshold is reached, genomic variation is so low that even large amounts of genome sequences may be insufficient to estimate the virus’s evolutionary rate and the time scale of an outbreak. We collected genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from public databases at eight different points in time and conducted a range of tests of temporal signal to determine if and when the phylodynamic threshold was reached, and the range of inferences that could be reliably drawn from these data. Our results indicate that by 2 February 2020, estimates of evolutionary rates and time scales had become possible. Analyses of subsequent data sets, that included between 47 and 122 genomes, converged at an evolutionary rate of about 1.1 × 10−3 subs/site/year and a time of origin of around late November 2019. Our study provides guidelines to assess the phylodynamic threshold and demonstrates that establishing this threshold constitutes a fundamental step for understanding the power and limitations of early data in outbreak genome surveillance.