The evolution of bacterial and archaeal genomes is highly dynamic and involves extensive horizontal gene transfer and gene loss1-4. Furthermore, many microbial species appear to have open pangenomes, where each newly sequenced genome contains more than 10% ORFans, that is, genes without detectable homologues in other species5,6. Here, we report a quantitative analysis of microbial genome evolution by fitting the parameters of a simple, steady-state evolutionary model to the comparative genomic data on the gene content and gene order similarity between archaeal genomes. The results reveal two sharply distinct classes of microbial genes, one of which is characterized by effectively instantaneous gene replacement, and the other consists of genes with finite, distributed replacement rates. These findings imply a conservative estimate of the size of the prokaryotic genomic universe, which appears to consist of at least a billion distinct genes. Furthermore, the same distribution of constraints is shown to govern the evolution of gene complement and gene order, without the need to invoke long-range conservation or the selfish operon concept7.
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