Event Size Research Articles

Идеология в России времени постмодерна

In strict texts, the general rhetoric of past and present can acquire certain spe­cific meanings. Their choice is determined by the historical size of events and time intervals. In our case, we can talk about the maximum distances, up to the ideologies of postmodernity and even the search for a way out of post­modernity into the hypothetical perspective of Supernovae. If in the great history of civilization Modern is considered the time of ideologies, then Russia has also turned out to be a globally chosen place for the practical and forceful implemen­tation of total megaprojects. These super-large and revealing works of the ideo­logical introduced Soviet Russia into the category, if not the leaders, of all the life-giving pathos of the New Age and the High Modern in particular. The Russian paradox is the unconditional triumph of Marxism as a state, institu­tionalized worldview, but based on absolute criticism of the ideological one. These features require a consistent distinction between ideology as a system of ideas and a system of institutions. Like the constitution of politics by Carl Schmitt through the binary opposition friend – enemy, ideology is constituted in the opposition faith – knowledge, in the spectrum between almost religion and near philosophy. If the task of philosophy is to reveal the non-obviousness of the allegedly obvious, then the mission of ideology is the manual or mass pro­duction of obviousness. Overcoming narrowly political reductionism opens up ideology in its ultimate expansion, distinguishes between systems of ideas and systems of institutions, as well as formats of shadow, latent, diffuse, penetrating, etc. ideology.

EXPLORING THE POTENTIALS OF COMMUNITY GARDENS AS GREEN SPACE ON VACANT LAND IN KHULNA CITY

Community garden (CG) is a form of urban green space. It provides social, economic, health and environmental benefits to the urban people in a city. Bangladesh's third largest city is Khulna, which is dominated by agriculture, two of the Wards of this city namely Ward no. 17 and Ward no. 20 are selected as the study area for this study. In many established and developing countries, community gardening is a common feature of urban development, but it is a new concept in Bangladesh. The study aims at exploring the potentials i.e., factors or favorable reasons of introducing community gardens in Khulna City. A wide range of related literature on community gardens are reviewed. A total of 300 households of the study Wards are surveyed through semi-structured questionnaire, key informant interviews of urban planners, civil engineers, architects, agriculturist, environmentalist and sociologist are conducted with review of Khulna City master plans, and other reports and publications. The study finds that approximately 3. 67 acres and 2.43 acres land in Ward no. 17 and Ward no. 20 remain vacant respectively. Also, after knowing the pros and cons of CG, 58.33% people in Ward no. 17 and 60% people of Ward no. 20 become interested to participate in CG. If it is possible to utilize the vacant land for community gardening, community gardens on one acre land having 17 decimal or 10.30 katha land of each community garden will be capable to sequestrate about 3.5 tons of carbon per year and depending on the size and duration of rain event, will be able to hold about 2000-10000 cubic ft. of storm water per year. The study also proposes some sites for the development of community gardens in future.

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

AbstractThe earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude (Mw) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an Mw 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. Our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

Characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events over the Canadian Arctic

AbstractGiven growing interest in extreme high‐latitude weather events, we use records from nine meteorological stations and atmospheric reanalysis data to examine extreme daily precipitation events (leading, 99th and 95th percentile) over Arctic Canada. Leading events span 90 mm at Cape Dyer, along the southeast coast of Baffin Island, to 26 mm at Sachs Harbour, on the southwest coast of Banks Island. The 95th percentiles range from 20 to 30% of leading event sizes. Extreme events are most common on or near the month of climatological peak precipitation. Contrasting with Eurasian continental sites having a July precipitation peak corresponding to the seasonal peak in precipitable water, seasonal cycles in precipitation and the frequency of extremes over Arctic Canada are more varied, reflecting marine influences. At Cape Dyer and Clyde River, mean precipitation and the frequency of extremes peak in October when the atmosphere is quickly cooling, promoting strong evaporation from Baffin Bay. At all stations, leading events involved snowfall and strong winds and were associated with cyclone passages (mostly of relatively strong storms). They also involved strong vapour fluxes, sometimes associated with atmospheric rivers or their remnants. The most unusual sequence of events identified here occurred at Clyde River, where the three largest recorded precipitation events occurred in April of 1977. Obtaining first‐hand accounts of this series of events has proven elusive. Identified links between extreme events and atmospheric rivers demonstrates the need to better understand how the characteristics of such features will change in the future.

Accuracy and precision of frequency–size distribution scaling parameters as a function of dynamic range of observations: example of the Gutenberg–Richter law b-value for earthquakes

SUMMARY Many natural hazards exhibit inverse power-law scaling of frequency and event size, or an exponential scaling of event magnitude (m) on a logarithmic scale, for example the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquakes, with probability density function p(m) ∼ 10−bm. We derive an analytic expression for the bias that arises in the maximum likelihood estimate of b as a function of the dynamic range r. The theory predicts the observed evolution of the modal value of mean magnitude in multiple random samples of synthetic catalogues at different r, including the bias to high b at low r and the observed trend to an asymptotic limit with no bias. The situation is more complicated for a single sample in real catalogues due to their heterogeneity, magnitude uncertainty and the true b-value being unknown. The results explain why the likelihood of large events and the associated hazard is often underestimated in small catalogues with low dynamic range, for example in some studies of volcanic and induced seismicity.

Measuring tail risks

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk events (MPMR) that can occur over a length of time. MPMR underscores the dependence of the tail risk on the risk management time frame. Unlike VaR and ES, MPMR does not require specifying a confidence level. We derive the risk measure analytically for several well-known distributions. In particular, for the case where the size of the risk event follows a power law or Pareto distribution, we show that MPMR also scales with the number of observations n (or equivalently the length of the time interval) by a power law, MPMR(n) ∝ nη, where η is the scaling exponent (SE). The scale invariance allows for reasonable estimations of long-term risks based on the extrapolation of more reliable estimations of short-term risks. The scaling relationship also gives rise to a robust and low-bias estimator of the tail index (TI) ξ of the size distribution, ξ = 1/η. We demonstrate the use of this risk measure for describing the tail risks in financial markets as well as the risks associated with natural hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis, and excessive rainfall).

A 15‐year analysis of precipitation and rain garden response

AbstractThe longevity and resilience of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) over time is a key concern as municipalities around the world move to incorporating GSI into stormwater management strategies. The Villanova University bioinfiltration rain garden (BRG) was constructed as a retrofit of an existing parking lot traffic island in 2001 and has been monitored since 2003, providing a long hydrological data record that is valuable for an in‐depth analysis of rainfall characteristics and rain garden response. The goal of this research is to use the data to assess the reliability of a rain garden's response in terms of its ability to manage incoming runoff from different rainfall event sizes, distributions, and antecedent conditions. A high‐resolution analysis of rainfall event frequency was done for all rainfall events within a 15 year (2003–2018) study period. Rainfall events were discretized into 2.5 mm, 2‐hour bins. Rainfall within each bin were compared and contrasted to discern the similarity of the rainfall distribution and trends in rain garden response. The rainfall‐runoff parameters were also analysed to understand if the occurrence of overflow could be expected based on storm characteristics. Results show that of the 1202 recorded events, 82% of them were less than 25 mm. Approximately 15% of all observed events resulted in measurable overflow, ranging from 0.01 to 685 m3. When compared to the design storm standards set for the region for GSI (the 2‐year, 24‐hour event), only 1% of all the storms recorded at the site were higher in terms of precipitation amount and event duration. In terms of design, the static rainfall volumes set by the standards did not represent the variety of storms experienced at the site. The overall analysis provided lessons into system components that can be used to advance green infrastructure design and policy standards.

INTEGRATED STORMWATER ANALYSIS MODEL TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE URBAN GREEN SPACE DESIGN

Abstract. Urban Green Space (UGS) has been broadly treated as a valuable and limited resource to handle the challenges brought by high-density urban environment. Green stormwater management has been prompt around the world. To reduce the potential conflicts between stormwater management and other requirements on UGS (especially human needs), the research community and governments encourage the urban planners and designers to integrate stormwater analysis into UGS design. However, the professional term and operation of the traditional hydrological model is a huge challenge to the designers who haven’t touched hydrological knowledge. This study developed a method to simulate and quantify stormwater in UGS by the particle system in the design platform- Rhinoceros +Grasshopper. In this method, we adopted five groups of urban objects such as terrain, building footprint etc. to ease procedures and performance. To overcome the issue the abstracted particle movement cannot reflect the infiltration features of land cover, we introduced categorising locations of the particles and the UGS retaining stormwater hypothesis. To test the feasibility of the method, we tested the three parameters of the integrated model: iteration times, rainfall depth ( selected rainfall event) and particle radius. The comparison tests prove: (1) too small iteration times would lead the particles to stop on the way to the bottom of the terrain, so we set at least 4000 iteration times for simulation; (2) the sensitivity to the selection of rainfall event and particle size is relatively low, the simulation results vary by 1%; (3) too small particle numbers will impact the accuracy of analysis, so we should balance accuracy and work efficiency of work; (4) the stormwater volume estimation based on the particle system is acceptable. The experiments confirm the method can effectively support preliminary UGS design work.

Use of basin outlet velocity to determine the basin concentration time and storage coefficient

Abstract Most empirical formulae for the basin concentration time (Tc) and storage coefficient (K) focus on estimating the representative values under the ordinary condition, with their return period being a maximum of 100–200 years. Under more extreme conditions, those parameters should be modified to consider faster velocity conditions. The main objective of this study is to examine the possibility of determining these parameters corresponding to the given peak velocity (vp) at the basin outlet. Two issues are involved in this problem; one is whether Tc can be fully expressed by vp, while the other is whether K is still linearly proportional to Tc under extreme conditions. In this study, these two issues are resolved by the theoretical review of these parameters, as well as an analysis of the rainfall–runoff events collected at the Chungju Dam basin, Korea. It is observed that as vp increases, Tc and K decrease. Their relationship is close to inverse but in linear proportion. That is, strong linear relationships are found among Tc, K, and vp. As a result, the ratio of K to Tc is found to be almost identical, regardless of vp. This ratio at a basin can be assumed as a basin characteristic that is unchanged, regardless of the size of rainfall events.

A poor perspective of self weight significantly increases adverse outcomes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

BackgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is prevalent amongst overweight and obese individuals, and weight loss remains the main mode of treatment for NAFLD patients. Weight perception plays a key role in the efficacy of such treatment. The current study aims to investigate the prevalence, associating factors and implications of poor weight perception amongst such individuals.MethodsAn analysis was done on data collected from NHANES between 1999 and 2018. Comparison was made between NAFLD individuals with and without poor weight perception in terms of prevalence, associated characteristics, and clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis was used to compare effect size of adverse events associated with NAFLD individuals with poor weight perception.ResultsOf the 12,170 NAFLD patients, 19.2% (CI: 18.5 to 19.9%) had poor weight perception. Poor weight perception was significantly associated with lower education levels, reduced levels of exercise and unhealthier lipid profiles. There was an increased risk in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.18, CI: 1.00 to 1.38, p = 0.047), cardiovascular disease mortality (SHR: 1.33, CI: 1.03 to 1.71, p = 0.026), major adverse cardiovascular events (OR: 1.21 CI: 1.10 to 1.32, p < 0.001), and advanced fibrosis (OR: 1.30, CI: 1.03 to 1.64, p = 0.025) for individuals with poor weight perception.ConclusionThis study highlights the positive association between appropriate weight perception and better outcomes in individuals with NAFLD. Poor weight perception increased the risk of adverse events and decreased inclination toward seeking weight loss treatment. Greater emphasis should be placed on dealing with weight perception in individuals with NAFLD for better treatment outcomes.

Implementation of the trigger system of the ICARUS-T600 detector at Fermilab

The ICARUS-T600 liquid argon (LAr) time projection chamber (TPC) detector is currently deployed as a far detector of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab (USA) to search for a possible LSND-like sterile neutrino signal at Δm2≈1 eV2 with the Booster (BNB) and Main Injector (NuMI) Neutrino Beams [1]. A global physical event rate of ≈0.6Hz, including the genuine neutrino interactions in LAr, beam halos and cosmic interactions inside the proton pulse time windows, is expected, roughly corresponding to ≈4 PB of data for the total 6.6×1020 protons on target exposure if the full ICARUS-T600 detector is read-out (≈200 MB event size). The designed trigger system described here would collect the genuine neutrino interactions with a ≈95% expected efficiency.

Using large climate model ensembles to assess historical and future tropical cyclone activity along the Australian east coast

Assessing regional changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) and their future impacts are challenging given the short historical record and limited sample size of these extreme events. To address this, we use large climate model ensembles to increase sample size and explore historical variability and future changes in regional TC behavior. We demonstrate this approach on basin and sub-basin scales along Australia's East Coast. Applying a TC tracking algorithm to the large ensembles, we find that the large ensembles are skillful in detecting observed historical TC trends in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) basin. Furthermore, we show that projected TC activity in the SWP basin exposes larger land areas to extreme winds and high precipitation totals. This includes southern-most portions of the SWP basin, where future TC wind speeds regularly exceed current wind loading standards. Combined, our results point to rapidly increasing risks of damaging TC winds and major TC flooding, as well as a heightened risk of water ingress through wind-driven rain.

Response of soil carbon dioxide efflux to temporal repackaging of rainfall into fewer, larger events in a semiarid grassland

Changing rainfall patterns will alter soil water availability to plants and microbes and likely impact soil CO2 efflux (Fs) in semiarid ecosystems. However, our understanding of the response of Fs to compound changes in rainfall event size and frequency remains relatively limited. To address this knowledge gap, we examined how compound changes in rainfall size and frequency impact Fs in a semiarid grassland by deploying automated soil chambers at a rainfall manipulation experiment. All plots within the experiment received equal total summer growing season precipitation that was temporally repackaged into regular events of inversely varied size and frequency, with event sizes ranging from 5 to 50 mm and dry intervals ranging from 3.5 to 21 days. We found that repackaging rainfall into few/large events with long dry intervals decreased seasonal cumulative Fs. Repackaging influenced key aspects of pulses including mean, maximum, and antecedent (day before irrigation) values of soil moisture and Fs and their rate of decline during drying intervals. Soil moisture explained substantial variation in Fs (R2 &amp;gt; 0.84) for all treatments; however, the sensitivity of Fs to soil moisture decreased in the few/large regime compared to the reference and many/small regimes. Dynamics in plant phenology (quantified by plot greenness) and soil temperature interacted with soil moisture to influence the seasonal evolution of Fs pulses and cumulative efflux. Our findings demonstrate that soil moisture and vegetation responses to changes in rainfall size and frequency impact soil CO2 efflux pulses and seasonal emissions in semiarid grasslands. These results, coupled with the knowledge that CO2 efflux pulses play an outsized role in dryland carbon exchange, indicate the possibility of future climate-mediated shifts in the carbon cycling of semiarid ecosystems.

Predicting future patterns, processes, and their interactions: Benchmark calibration and validation procedures for forest landscape models

Process-based Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) rely on first principles to simulate ecological patterns and processes, making them uniquely powerful for forecasting ecological dynamics under unprecedented climatic and disturbance regimes. Persistent challenges with any ecological forecasting model are calibration (“tuning” the model) and validation (“proofing” the model). As no actual future data exist from which to conduct a formal model validation, model credibility is established through numerous tests against empirical datasets and comparisons with other types of models. The purpose of this study was to establish more consistent and generalizable standards for calibrating and validating LANDIS-II, a widely used, open-source FLM. We reviewed methods gleaned from a wide variety of previous FLM studies and advance some new techniques for evaluating the credibility of the model outputs. We used publicly available data with full coverage for the United States (US) so that our methods will be generalizable to other landscapes in the US, and we developed an ecologically meaningful set of validation metrics for evaluating the credibility of new applications.We found that LANDIS-II could be calibrated to reliably simulate empirical vegetation-disturbance-climate dynamics in diverse, mountainous terrain and fire-prone landscapes of the eastern Cascade Mountains. We performed an inter-model validation between LANDIS-II and the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), demonstrating consistent projections of biomass dynamics for all tree-dominated ecoregions in the study domain. Similarly, simulated fires reliably approximated the empirical fire event size and severity patch size distributions based on observed fire activity from 1984 to 2019. By establishing rigorous, transparent, and repeatable standards for calibrating and validating FLM dynamics, we sought to remove some of the barriers to adapting LANDIS-II to new landscapes and climates, facilitate further validation of existing models, and aid independent assessment of the credibility of forest landscape models.

Impact of Astrocytic Coverage of Synapses on the Short-Term Memory of a Computational Neuron-Astrocyte Network

Working memory refers to the capability of the nervous system to selectively retain short-term memories in an active state. The long-standing viewpoint is that neurons play an indispensable role and working memory is encoded by synaptic plasticity. Furthermore, some recent studies have shown that calcium signaling assists the memory processes and the working memory might be affected by the astrocyte density. Over the last few decades, growing evidence has also revealed that astrocytes exhibit diverse coverage of synapses which are considered to participate in neuronal activities. However, very little effort has yet been made to attempt to shed light on the potential correlations between these observations. Hence, in this article, we leverage a computational neuron–astrocyte model to study the short-term memory performance subject to various astrocytic coverage and we demonstrate that the short-term memory is susceptible to this factor. Our model may also provide plausible hypotheses for the various sizes of calcium events as they are reckoned to be correlated with the astrocytic coverage.

Interactive effects of functional traits and rainfall event size on stemflow in a tropical montane cloud forest

AbstractThis study analyses how rainfall (P) event size influences the effect of functional traits on stemflow volume of woody plants in a tropical montane cloud forest. In addition, it was investigated whether multiple regression models based on functional traits provide better predictions of stemflow volume than allometric equations using only basal area (BA). Eighteen functional traits of size, structure, bark and leaf of woody plants in the overstory, midstory and understory were analysed. Stemflow volume was determined to a greater extent by size traits, mainly basal area and crown area, with these relationships becoming stronger as P event size increased. Stemflow volume was also influenced by other traits that affect the efficiency with which individuals produced stemflow. The crown area/basal area ratio showed the strongest correlation with the stemflow production efficiency metrics (funnelling ratio and stemflow proportion). Bark traits had a negative effect on funnelling ratio and stemflow proportion, with a tendency to be stronger in smaller P events, while vascular epiphyte cover showed the opposite trend. Multiple regression models with two to three variables explained 43 to 81% of stemflow volume variation, depending on P event size. For P events &lt;15 mm, the fit was generally better for multiple regression models than for basal area models, while for P events &gt;15 mm, differences among models were small. Functional traits largely define stemflow at the level of individual plants, but this relationship is mediated by P event size.

Effect of Declustering Algorithm in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Kathmandu Valley

An earthquake is a random event with uncertainty on time of occurrence, size of events, and location of rupture. So earthquake phenomenon is a model based on Poisson’s distribution. Thus, all the dependent event like foreshock and aftershock has to be removed before performing any Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Among the number of methodologies proposed for declustering methods, the process proposed by Gardener and Knopoff (1974) and Reasenberg (1985) was mostly used due to the availability of source code and reliability of declustering work. In this study, an attempt has been made to compare the effect of the declustering process at hazard level for the scenario of Kathmandu Valley. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kathmandu valley is performed using RCRISIS software with different seismicity parameters calculated for without declustering, declustering using Gardener and Knopoff (1974), and declustering using Reasenberg (1985). Calculated PGA value at bedrock level for 760 years return period for three declustering models compared with the measured square root of the sum of square (SRSS) PGA by 2015 Gorkha earthquake at Kathmandu valley at KTP station. Obtained results highlighted the suitability of the Gardener and Knopoff source code for the study area.

Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts

Abstract. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) describes a seesaw pattern of variations in atmospheric mass over the polar cap. It is by now well established that the AO pattern is in part determined by the state of the stratosphere. In particular, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are known to nudge the tropospheric circulation toward a more negative phase of the AO, which is associated with a more equatorward-shifted jet and enhanced likelihood for blocking and cold air outbreaks in mid-latitudes. SSWs are also thought to contribute to the occurrence of extreme AO events. However, statistically robust results about such extremes are difficult to obtain from observations or meteorological (re-)analyses due to the limited sample size of SSW events in the observational record (roughly six SSWs per decade). Here we exploit a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts within the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) framework to obtain an improved characterization of the modulation of AO extremes due to stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Specifically, we greatly boost the sample size of stratospheric events by using potential SSWs (p-SSWs), i.e., SSWs that are predicted to occur in individual forecast ensemble members regardless of whether they actually occurred in the real atmosphere. For example, the S2S ensemble of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts gives us a total of 6101 p-SSW events for the period 1997–2021. A standard lag-composite analysis around these p-SSWs validates our approach; i.e., the associated composite evolution of stratosphere–troposphere coupling matches the known evolution based on reanalysis data around real SSW events. Our statistical analyses further reveal that following p-SSWs, relative to climatology, (1) persistently negative AO states (&gt;1 week duration) are 16 % more likely; (2) the likelihood for extremely negative AO states (&lt;-3σ) is enhanced by about 40 %–80 %, while that for extremely positive AO states (&gt;+3σ) is reduced to almost zero; (3) approximately 50 % of extremely negative AO states that follow SSWs may be attributable to the SSW, whereas about one-quarter of all extremely negative AO states during winter may be attributable to SSWs. A corresponding analysis relative to strong stratospheric vortex events reveals similar insights into the stratospheric modulation of positive AO extremes. However, conclusions in terms of causality remain difficult, in part due to unconsidered confounding factors.

How much water can bioretention retain, and where does it go?

Abstract Bioretention is a type of green stormwater infrastructure for the urban environment that mimics a natural hydrologic system by reducing peak flows and runoff volumes and encouraging infiltration and evapotranspiration. This study examines the complete water balance of a bioretention system located in Vaughan, Ontario, Canada, between 2018 and 2019. The water balance was further broken down by event size, where the event size was determined by rainfall frequency analysis. Recharge was the largest component of the water balance overall (88% of inflow), as well as by event size. Evapotranspiration was the next largest water balance component (6% of inflow overall), and was a significant component of inflow (19%) when considering only small events (50% probability of recurrence). Evapotranspiration is a slow but consistent process, averaging 2.3 mm/day overall and 2.9 mm/day during the growing season. Climate change is likely to bring more wet days and higher temperatures, which will impact the bioretention water balance by increasing evapotranspiration and inflow. Design standards for retention targets should be updated based on the most recent rainfall frequency analyses to adjust for changing climate conditions.

Universal predictability of large avalanches in the Manna sandpile model.

Substantiated explanations of the unpredictability regarding sandpile models of self-organized criticality (SOC) gave way to efficient forecasts of extremes in a few models. The appearance of extremes requires a preparation phase that ends with general overloading of the system and spatial clustering of the local stress. Here, we relate the predictability of large events to the system volume in the Manna and Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpiles, which are basic models of SOC. We establish that in the Manna model, the events located to the right of the power-law segment of the size-frequency relationship are predictable and the prediction efficiency is described by the universal linear dependence on the event size scaled by a power-law function of the lattice volume. Our scaling-based approach to predictability contributes to the theory of SOC and may elucidate the forecast of extremes in the dynamics of such systems with SOC as neuronal networks and earthquakes.