Spill Event Research Articles

Monitoring of Oil Spill Risk in Coastal Areas Based on Polarimetric SAR Satellite Images and Deep Learning Theory

Healthy coasts have a high ecological service value. However, many coastal areas are faced with oil spill risks. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing technique has become an effective tool for monitoring the oil spill risk in coastal areas. In this study, taking Jiaozhou Bay in China as the study area, an innovative oil spill monitoring framework was established based on Polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) images and deep learning theory. Specifically, a DeepLabv3+-based semantic segmentation model was trained using 35 Sentinel-1 satellite images of oil films on the sea surface from maritime sectors in different regions all over the world, which not only considered the information from the PolSAR images but also meteorological conditions; then, the well-trained framework was deployed to identify the oil films in the Sentinel-1 images of Jiaozhou Bay from 2017 to 2019. The experimental results show that the detection accuracies of the proposed oil spill detection model were higher than 0.95. It was found that the oil films in Jiaozhou Bay were mainly concentrated in the vicinity of the waterways and coastal port terminals, that the occurrence frequency of oil spills in Jiaozhou Bay decreased from 2017 to 2019, and that more than 80 percent of the oil spill events occurred at night, mainly coming from the illegal discharge of waste oil from ships. These data indicate that, in the future, the PolSAR technique will play a more important role in oil spill monitoring for Jiaozhou Bay due to its capability to capture images at night.

Isotope forensics of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in a contaminated shallow aquifer

Diesel was accidently released into the shallow subsurface at an industrial site in the province of Québec, Canada, in the late 1980s. Subsequent remediation efforts removed much of the contamination; however, traces of petroleum hydrocarbons continue to impact the local aquifer. In addition to the historical diesel spill, more recent yet unconfirmed accidental releases from ongoing on-site and neighbouring industrial activities may have potentially contributed to elevated levels of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in groundwater. To identify the main source(s) of contamination, compound-specific stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) of PACs in groundwater monitoring wells were compared to those in asphalt produced from a nearby plant and in fuel oil #6 oil being used by local industry. The δ13C values of five individual compounds (biphenyl, C2-naphthalene, C1-fluorene, dibenzothiophene and phenanthrene) and two groups of combined C1-phenanthrenes/anthracenes in all groundwater samples were within analytical uncertainty (±0.5‰). Moreover, the δ13CPAC values in groundwater samples were distinct from those in asphalt and fuel oil #6, indicating negligible contributions from these sources. The similarity in δ13CPAC values across monitoring wells, including one situated in the former source zone containing a floating hydrocarbon phase, pointed to a common source of subsurface contamination that was attributed to the historical diesel spill. These results thus demonstrate that δ13CPAC values can be used for source apportionment in shallow aquifers decades after the original spill event.

The Effects of Spill Pressure on the Migration and Remediation of Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids in Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Aquifers

The spill pressure of the contaminant source is an important factor affecting the amount, location, form, and behavior of the dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) that plume in a contaminated subsurface environment. In this study, perchloroethylene (PCE) infiltration, distribution and, remediation via a surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) technique for a PCE spill event are simulated to evaluate the effects of the spill pressure of the contaminant source on the DNAPLs’ behavior in two-dimensional homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. Five scenarios with different spill pressures of contamination sources are considered to perform the simulations. The results indicate that the spill pressure of the contaminant source has an obvious influence on the distribution of DNAPLs and the associated efficiency of remediation in homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. As the spill pressure increases, more and more contaminants come into the aquifer and the spread range of contamination becomes wider and wider. Simultaneously, the remediation efficiency of contamination also decreases from 93.49% to 65.90% as the spill pressure increases from 33.0 kPa to 41.0 kPa for a heterogeneous aquifer with 200 realizations. The simulation results in both homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers show the same influence of the spill pressure of the contaminant source on PCE behaviors in the two-dimensional model. This study indicates that the consideration of the spill pressure of the contaminant sources (such as underground petrol tanks, underground oil storage, underground pipeline, and landfill leakage) is essential for the disposal of contaminant leakage in the subsurface environment. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately predict the migration and distribution of DNAPLs and determine the efficient scheme for the removal of contaminant spills in groundwater systems.

Assessment of the effect of short-term weathering on the molecular-level chemical composition of crude oils in contact with aquatic environments.

Multiple studies have focused on the effect of long-term weathering processes on oils after spill events, without considering the chemical compositional changes occurring shortly after the release of oil into the environment. Therefore, the present study provides a broad chemical characterization for understanding of the changes occurring in the chemical compositions of intermediate (°API = 27.0) and heavy (°API = 20.9) oils from the Sergipe-Alagoas basin submitted to two simulated situations, one under marine conditions and the other in a riverine environment. Samples of the oils were collected during the first 72 h of contact with the simulated environments, followed by evaluation of their chemical compositions. SARA fractionation was used to isolate the resins, which were characterized at the molecular level by UHRMS. The evaporation process was highlighted, with the GC-FID chromatographic profiles showing the disappearance of compounds from n-C10 until n-C16, as well as changes in the weathering indexes and pristane + n-C17/phytane + n-C18 ratios for the crude oils submitted to the riverine conditions. Analysis of the resins fraction showed that basic polar compounds underwent little or no alterations during the early stages of weathering. The marine environment was shown to be much less oxidative than the riverine environment. For both environments, a feature highlighted was an increase of acidic oxygenated compounds with the increase of weathering, especially for the crude oil with °API = 27.0.

Guide curves in stochastic dynamic programming to optimize operation policies in sequential hydropower dams

The guide curves are tools that specify rules for dam operation that allow reducing the chances of unwanted spill or deficit events. In this research, we analyzed the importance of using guide curves and penalizing the deviation of such curves by the occurrence of surplus volume, or deficit, using optimization tools on an objective function that apply stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), guide curves and reservoir operation simulation all together, to obtain and evaluate biweekly operation policies for hydropower generation purposes. The main dams of the Grijalva River were taken as a case study. The optimization tool is based on sequential decision stages (time intervals) to operate a dam system that considers the restrictions on storage volumes, defined by high and low guide curves. An objective function was considered which maximizes energy generation, it uses coefficients to penalize unwanted events of spills, deficits, and operation conditions outside the limits of the guide curves. In conjunction with the agencies that manage the system, three tests with different guide curves were defined. To analyze their sensitivity in the results (mainly events of spillage) one more test was defined for an operation rule without considering guide curves. The system behavior was simulated with the historical record, where five variables were analyzed: total spills and deficit, minimum and maximum storage, as well as the average energy generated. By using the guide curves, the occurrence of spills and deficits was avoided.

Oil Spill Detection Using Otical Sensors: A Multi-Temporal Approach

Oil pollution is one of the most destructive consequences due to human activities in the marine environment. Oil wastes come from many sources and take decades to be disposed of. Satellite based remote sensing systems can be implemented into a surveillance and monitoring network. In this study, a multi-temporal approach to the oil spill detection problem is investigated. Change Detection (CD) analysis was applied to MODIS/Terra and Aqua and OLI/Landsat 8 images of several reported oil spill events, characterized by different geographic location, sea conditions, source and extension of the spill. Toward the development of an automatic detection algorithm, a Change Vector Analysis (CVA) technique was implemented to carry out the comparison between the current image of the area of interest and a dataset of reference image, statistically analyzed to reduce the sea spectral variability between different dates. The proposed approach highlights the optical sensors’ capabilities in detecting oil spills at sea. The effectiveness of different sensors’ resolution towards the detection of spills of different size, and the relevance of the sensors’ revisiting time to track and monitor the evolution of the event is also investigated.

Déjà vu: New oil spill poses cumulative risks to protected coastal environments in the South Atlantic

In 2022, new oil spills appeared again on tropical beaches; this time, they were concentrated on the Brazilian semiarid coast. This equatorial region was already impacted by the 2019/2020 event, but the impact of this new spill and its risks have not yet been discussed in literature. This article aims to provide the first data on this latest oil spill event as well as the cumulative risks presented by the two oil spills. The 2022 spill was mainly composed of fragments smaller than 0.15 m, with ∼ 11.6 m3 of oil collected. Oil was detected across the Equatorial coastline, over an extension of ∼ 342 km. The oil started arriving on the east coast of the Ceará State on January 25 and drifted westward, reaching new sites, until February 16. The 2022 spill reached 14 municipalities, 15 marine protected areas (MPAs), and 84 beaches. Geospatial analysis of this event—overlapped with data from the most extensive spill ever recorded in the tropical oceans (2019/2020)—indicates that 8 MPAs and 73.5 % of the beaches have been affected for a second time. The repeat of such an oil incident suggests that improved detection and mitigation strategies are necessary, along with management systems in the event of future pollution occurrences.

New links between invariant dynamical structures and uncertainty quantification

This paper proposes a new uncertainty measure, appropriate for quantifying the performance of transport models in assessing the origin or source of a given observation. It is found that in a neighborhood of the observation the proposed uncertainty measure is related to the invariant dynamical structures of the model. The paper illustrates the implementation of the proposed definition to quantify the performance of ocean data sets in the context of a real oil spill event in the Eastern Mediterranean in 2021.

The Potential Impact of Oil Spills in Coastal Waters on Water Supply in Trinidad

Oil exploration poses an inherent risk to water resources and water quality, exemplified by oil spills resulting from broken pipelines, underwater blowouts and oil transport vessel accidents. In these instances, as vulnerable to spilled oil, water is usually the first casualty, resulting in oil contaminated water. In an effort to ensure the sustainability of freshwater resources resilience in Small Island Developing States, (SIDS), desalination is increasingly used to provide potable water. Thus, oceanic oil spills are of significant relevance to the provision of a guaranteed supply of potable water. Trinidad and Tobago, an oil-producing (SIDS), with considerable oil and gas activities on land and in shallow coastal waters; can become increasingly stressed from oil spills, possibly leading to halting seawater intakes in the desalination process. A real-life seawater surface oil spill in the Gulf of Paria, south-west coast of Trinidad, not far from the largest desalination plant in the Caribbean, is investigated using numerical mathematical modelling to model the spill’s movement underwater. The trajectory plots produced and analysed, indicated that depending on key parameters of the oil and the current ambient conditions, an oil plume can travel significantly long horizontal distances underwater before destabilising. Inferences suggested that oily underwater and existing ambient conditions can potentially affect the desalination equipment. Hence, oil spill modelling is necessary to determine oil trajectory and further inform the decision-making process in determining the best location for constructing desalination plants so as to minimise disruption to the island’s domestic freshwater supply in oil spill events.

Does corporate governance matter in the cleanup of reported oil spills? Evidence from Nigeria

PurposeThis study aims to examine whether corporate governance mechanisms – board size, board independence and CEO duality – influence the actions of oil companies operating in Nigeria to clean up oil spills from their facilities.Design/methodology/approachBoth binary logistic regression (linear) and random-effects logistic regression models were used to test three hypotheses using a unique data set of 1,262 oil spill events involving 24 oil companies from 2017 to 2019.FindingsThe study found that board size and board independence are positively related to oil spill cleanup.Practical implicationsPrivate oil companies in Nigeria should encourage larger and more independent boards in their corporate governance (CG) structures, as these boards may be more effective in serving the interests of stakeholders by bringing diverse knowledge and experience to the boards. Similarly, regulators should extend the enforcement of CG codes to private firms.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the influence of CG attributes on oil spill cleanup.

Assessing the risk of oil spill impacts and potential biodiversity loss for coastal marine environment at the turn of the COVID-19 pandemic event

The Tuscan Archipelago, with its great environmental and economic importance, is one of the highest oil spill density areas in the Western Mediterranean. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach, based on numerical applications and experimental methods, was implemented to quantify the risk of oil spill impact along the rocky shores of this archipelago in relation to the maritime activities. The risk, defined as a combination of the hazard and the damage, was quantified for the biennial 2019–2020 in order to account for the effects generated by the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on the local maritime traffic. A high-resolution oceanographic and particle tracking model was applied to simulate the trajectories of possible oil spill events and to quantify the hazard of impacts on the coast of numerical particles, daily seeded in correspondence of those marine sectors that are characterised by relevant traffic of vessels. The damage, expressed as the product of exposure and vulnerability, was estimated following an extensive sampling approach aimed at quantifying the ecological status of the rocky shores in four selected islands of the Tuscan Archipelago. Results revealed and quantified the direct relationship between the temporary reduction of the maritime traffic due to the pandemic restrictions, and the probability of suffering damage from oil spill impact along the archipelago's rocky shores, which was highly context-dependent.

The influence of ocean acidification and warming on responses of Scylla serrata to oil pollution: An integrated biomarker approach.

Anthropogenic activities primarily combustion of fossil fuel is the prime cause behind the increased concentration of CO2 into the atmosphere. As a consequence, marine environments are anticipated to experience shift towards lower pH and elevated temperatures. Moreover, since the industrial revolution the growing demand for petroleum-based products has been mounting up worldwide leading to severe oil pollution. Sundarbans estuarine system (SES) is experiencing ocean warming, acidification as well as oil pollution from the last couple of decades. Scylla serrata is one of the most commercially significant species for aquaculture in coastal areas of Sundarbans. Thus, the prime objective of this study is to delineate whether exposure under ocean warming and acidification exacerbates effect of oil spill on oxidative stress of an estuarine crab S. serrata. Animals were separately exposed under current and projected climate change scenario for 30days. After this half animals of each treatment were exposed to oil spill conditions for 24h. Oxidative stress status superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione S-transferase (GST), lipid peroxidation (LPO level) and DNA damage (Comet assay) were measured. Augmented antioxidant and detoxification enzyme activity was noted except for SOD but failed to counteract LPO and DNA damage. The present results clearly highlighted the detrimental combined effect of OWA and pollution on oxidative stress status of crabs that might potentially reduce its population and affect the coastal aquaculture in impending years.

Remote sensing reveals unprecedented sublethal impacts of a 40-year-old oil spill on mangroves

Oil spills cause long-lasting mangrove loss, threatening their conservation and ecosystem services worldwide. Oil spills impact mangrove forests at various spatial and temporal scales. Yet, their long-term sublethal effects on trees remain poorly documented. Here, we explore these effects based on one of the largest oil spills ever recorded, the Baixada Santista pipeline leak, which hit the mangroves of the Brazilian southeastern coast in 1983. Historical, Landsat-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maps over the spilled mangrove reveal a large dieback of trees within a year following the oil spill, followed by a eight-year recolonization period and a stabilization of the canopy cover, however 20–30% lower than initially observed. We explain this permanent loss by an unexpected persistence of oil pollution in the sediments based on visual and geochemical evidence. Using field spectroscopy and cutting-edge drone hyperspectral imaging, we demonstrate how the continuous exposure of mangrove trees to high levels of pollution affects their health and productivity in the long term, by imposing permanent stressful conditions. Our study also reveals that tree species differ in their sensitivity to oil, giving the most tolerant ones a competitive advantage to recolonize spilled mangroves. By leveraging drone laser scanning, we estimate the loss of forest biomass caused by the oil spill to be 9.8–91.2 t ha−1, corresponding to 4.3–40.1 t C ha−1. Based on our findings, we encourage environmental agencies and lawmakers to consider the sublethal effects of oil spills on mangroves in the environmental cost of these accidents. We also encourage petroleum companies to use drone remote sensing in monitoring routines and oil spill response planning to improve mangrove preservation and impact assessment.

Improving the design and conduct of aquatic toxicity studies with oils based on 20 years of CROSERF experience

Laboratory toxicity testing is a key tool used in oil spill science, spill effects assessment, and mitigation strategy decisions to minimize environmental impacts. A major consideration in oil toxicity testing is how to replicate real-world spill conditions, oil types, weathering states, receptor organisms, and modifying environmental factors under laboratory conditions. Oils and petroleum-derived products are comprised of thousands of compounds with different physicochemical and toxicological properties, and this leads to challenges in conducting and interpreting oil toxicity studies. Experimental methods used to mix oils with aqueous test media have been shown to influence the aqueous-phase hydrocarbon composition and concentrations, hydrocarbon phase distribution (i.e., dissolved phase versus in oil droplets), and the stability of oil:water solutions which, in turn, influence the bioavailability and toxicity of the oil containing media. Studies have shown that differences in experimental methods can lead to divergent test results. Therefore, it is imperative to standardize the methods used to prepare oil:water solutions in order to improve the realism and comparability of laboratory tests. The CROSERF methodology, originally published in 2005, was developed as a standardized method to prepare oil:water solutions for testing and evaluating dispersants and dispersed oil. However, it was found equally applicable for use in testing oil-derived petroleum substances. The goals of the current effort were to: (1) build upon two decades of experience to update existing CROSERF guidance for conducting aquatic toxicity tests and (2) to improve the design of laboratory toxicity studies for use in hazard evaluation and development of quantitative effects models that can then be applied in spill assessment. Key experimental design considerations discussed include species selection (standard vs field collected), test substance (single compound vs whole oil), exposure regime (static vs flow-through) and duration, exposure metrics, toxicity endpoints, and quality assurance and control.

Long-Wave Infrared Polarization-Based Airborne Marine Oil Spill Detection and Identification Technology

In this paper, infrared polarization detection information acquisition technology is proposed, and the polarization characteristics of oil spills are modeled and studied. A set of long-wave infrared polarization detection equipment for oil spills is designed and built, and modeling research on oil spill polarization characteristics is carried out to accurately detect and identify oil spill types and for the faster processing of oil spill events. Oil spill accuracy is increased by defining the polarization maintenance method of the polarization optical system and reducing the polarization measurement error brought on by the imaging system. As a result, a higher than 3% contrast exists between the polarization degree image and the corrected infrared intensity image. Outdoor tests using oil, palm oil, crude oil, gasoline, and diesel oil spill types are carried out in a controlled environment to collect data on the polarization of various oil species. According to the findings, each oil species’ infrared polarization contrast with seawater is typically greater than its infrared intensity contrast. However, the polarization data of saltwater, diesel, and palm oil, which are difficult to identify in intensity data, show a noticeable difference, further proving the viability of utilizing polarization to discern oil spills.

Advances to the CROSERF protocol to improve oil spill response decision making

The Chemical Response to Oil Spills: Ecological Effects Research Forum (CROSERF) created a standardized protocol for comparing the toxicity of physically dispersed oil versus chemically dispersed oil to address environmental concerns related to the proposed use of dispersants in the early 2000s. Since then, many revisions have been made to the original protocol to diversify the intended use of the data generated, incorporate emerging technologies, and to examine a wider range of oil types including non-conventional oils and fuels. Under the Multi-Partner Research Initiative (MPRI) for oil spill research under Canada's Oceans Protection Plan (OPP), a network of 45 participants from seven countries representing government, industry, non-profit, private, and academic sectors was established to identify the current state of the science and formulate a series of recommendations to modernize the oil toxicity testing framework. The participants formed a series of working groups, targeting specific aspects of oil toxicity testing, including: experimental conduct; media preparation; phototoxicity; analytical chemistry; reporting and communicating results; interpreting toxicity data; and appropriate integration of toxicity data to improve oil spill effects models. The network participants reached a consensus that a modernized protocol to assess the aquatic toxicity of oil should be sufficiently flexible to address a broad range of research questions in a ‘fit-for-purpose’ manner, where methods and approaches are driven by the need to generate scientifically-defensible data to address specific study objectives. Considering the many needs and varied objectives of aquatic toxicity tests currently being conducted to support and inform oil spill response decision making, it was also concluded that the development of a one size fits all approach would not be feasible.

Modeling of the Fate and Behaviors of an Oil Spill in the Azemmour River Estuary in Morocco

Oil spills are one of the most hazardous pollutants in marine environments with potentially devastating impacts on ecosystems, human health, and socio-economic sectors. Therefore, it is of the utmost importance to establish a prompt and efficient system for forecasting and monitoring such spills, in order to minimize their impacts. The present work focuses on the numerical simulation of the drift and spread of oil slicks in marine environments. The specific area of interest is the Azemmour estuary, located on Morocco’s Atlantic Coast. According to the environmental sensitivity index (ESI), given its geographical location at the intersection of the World’s Shipping Lines of oil transport, this area, as with many other sites in Morocco, has been classified as a high-risk area for oil spill accidents. By taking into account a range of factors, including the ocean currents, the weather conditions, and the oil properties, detailed numerical simulations were conducted, using the hydrodynamic TELEMAC-2D model, to predict the behavior and spread of an oil spill event in the aforementioned coastal region. The simulation results help to understand the spatial–temporal evolution of the spilled oil, the effect of wind on the spreading process, as well as the coastal areas that are most likely to be affected in the event of an oil spill accident. The simulations were performed with and without wind effects. The results showed that three days after the oil spill only 31% of the spilled oil remained on the sea surface. The wind was found to be the main factor responsible for oil drifting offshore. The results indicated that rapid action is needed to address the oil spill before it causes significant environmental damage and makes the oil cleanup process more challenging and expensive. The results of the present study are highly valuable for the management and prevention of environmental disasters in the Azemmour estuary area. The findings can be used to assess the efficacy of various response strategies, such as containment and cleanup measures, and to develop more effective emergency response plans.

Risk Assessment of the Impact of Oil Spill on the Heavy Metal Content of Santa Barbara River in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

This study was aimed at assessing both the effect (risk) and impact of a recent oil spill on heavy metal concentration in the Santa Babara River in Bayelsa State, Nigeria. Samples were collected and preserved based on standard methods. The heavy metals of interest were Mercury (Hg), Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr) and Copper (Cu) due to their levels of toxicities and presence in water bodies while the five study stations were Worokuma (W), Uwanga (W), Tuweni (T), Shellikiri (S), Inarakiri (I) and Esenfakiri (E). The solar thermos elemental flame atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS), model SE-71096 made in Germany with detection limit of 0.001 mg·kg−1 was used for the heavy metal analysis. The trend of heavy metal abundance was found in this order Cr>Cu>Cd>Pb>Hg=As. All the detectable metals had risk index of greater than 5 but the highest was found in the order, Cd> Pb > Cu > Cr (149, 35, 26 and 12 respectively) which meant extremely high level of pollution. This also indicated the probability of non-carcinogenic effects occurring and increases as HI increases signifying carcinogenic risk via direct ingestion of water. Graphs were used to show trends in both mean heavy metal concentrations and risk assessment indices. Chromium and Pb had moderate contaminations for CF and CDI values, hence regular monitoring of the Santa Barbara River is of essence as most of the inhabitants take this as the only source of potable water as their wells have very high iron content.

PENERAPAN VIRTUAL LIGHTING EFFECT PADA PROGRAM MUSIK “HYPERTUNE”

Virtual lighting effect is an imitation or digital replica of the lighting effect fixture that can be manipulated. In implementing the virtual lighting effect, there are several things that need to be considered, including the basic lighting arrangement, the virtual lighting effect arrangement, the lighting effect movement game and the color selection according to the song being sung. If this is not applied optimally it will result in an untidy compositing process so that it can interfere with the visuals displayed such as a spill effect or there is a white line on the object. The purpose of this creation is to apply a virtual lighting effect to a 10-minute "hypertune" music program containing 2 songs. This study uses a qualitative descriptive method, the research process goes through three stages, namely pre-production, production and post-production. The method used in the application of the lighting effect is the compositing method by applying the three point of light technique, the position virtual lighting effect technique, and the color selection of the lighting effect. The result of the creation of this work is the three point of light technique is applied with basic lighting arrangements to simplify the cromakey process which results in objects looking dimensional. the position virtual lighting effect technique produces precise lighting effect positions and can create a combination of dynamic lighting effect movements. The lighting effect color selection technique succeeded in building the mood of the song being sung and adding a visual interest to the image Keywords : three point of light, Virtual lighting effect, Compositing

Simulation of Oil Spill Trajectory and Fate at the Southern Entrance of the Suez Canal, Red Sea, Egypt

The Suez Canal suffers from heavy maritime traffic, especially oil tankers, due to its strategic location between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. As a result, it is prone to accidental oil spills, which might obstruct the maritime lane via the canal and severely harm the marine and coastal ecosystems. This study aims to forecast an oil spill trajectory and fate under the influence of different wind regimes using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) and the Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills (ADIOS2) models to define the potentially affected regions. Hence, four scenarios were simulated, assuming a spill of one thousand metric tons of Arabian light crude oil into the seawater about two kilometers from the Suez Canal’s southern entrance. The results highlight that wind direction and sea currents substantially affect the movement of oil spills. The trajectory maps show that the north-west wind forces the spilled oil to move toward the southeast direction, threatening the navigation lane through the Suez Canal and about 38 km of beaches south of the canal, which has several vital projects such as the Ayoun Mousse power plant and a lot of resorts. In the case of northern winds, the oil moved south in the center of the Gulf, which may allow response teams more time to clean up the spill. However, in the case of north-east winds, the oil drifted southwesterly and threatened the Green Island and western shores of the Gulf, which has many tourist villages. About a quarter of the oil evaporated, and more than two-thirds of the oil emulsified in all four scenarios. For the first time, this study has provided an understanding of oil spill forecasting and trajectory modeling for the Suez Canal’s southern entrance. Also, it can be considered a prediction tool for Egypt’s policymakers and Suez Canal Authority (SCA) to develop adequate and practical strategies to mitigate crude oil spill consequences.