Conjunction Fallacy Research Articles

Live imaging of platelets and neutrophils during antibody-mediated neurovascular thrombosis

AbstractImmune complexes form in systemic disorders such as rheumatological, autoimmune, and allergic diseases or in response to infections or medications. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) adenoviral vector vaccines have been associated with rare yet serious thrombotic complications in the brain due to the formation of immune complexes that activate platelets. There are currently no data visualizing the interplay of platelets with leukocytes and the brain vasculature endothelium in response to immune complexes. This is in part due to the absence of FcγRIIA in mice, a receptor for immune complexes implicated in these thrombotic incidents. Here, we describe and illustrate events at the cellular level that take place in the brain vasculature in response to systemic administration of surrogate immune complexes. We used Ly6gCre+/−::Rosa26-TdT+/−::CD41-YFP+/− mice expressing the FcγRIIA transgene and fluorescence in neutrophils and platelets. Using real-time videomicroscopy to capture high-velocity events in conjunction with unbiased computer-assisted analyses, we provide images and quantifications of the cellular responses downstream of FcγRIIA stimulation. We observed transient and stable platelet–neutrophil interactions, platelets forming thrombi, and neutrophil adhesion to blood vessel walls. This imaging approach in a quadruple transgenic animal model can be used for the study of the pathogenic roles of immune complexes in disease.

Concept Formation and Quantum-like Probability from Nonlocality in Cognition

Human decision-making is relevant for concept formation and cognitive illusions. Cognitive illusions can be explained by quantum probability, while the reason for introducing quantum mechanics is based on ad hoc bounded rationality (BR). Concept formation can be explained in a set-theoretic way, although such explanations have not been extended to cognitive illusions. We naturally expand the idea of BR to incomplete BR and introduce the key notion of nonlocality in cognition without any attempts on quantum theory. We define incomplete bounded rationality and nonlocality as a binary relation, construct a lattice from the relation by using a rough-set technique, and define probability in concept formation. By using probability defined in concept formation, we describe various cognitive illusions, such as the guppy effect, conjunction fallacy, order effect, and so on. It implies that cognitive illusions can be explained by changes in the probability space relevant to concept formation.

Are you an exception to your favorite decision theory? Behavioral decision research is a linda problem!

Are you an exception to your favorite decision theory? Behavioral decision research is a linda problem!

Reply to commentaries: Why should we worry about scientific conjunction fallacies?

Reply to commentaries: Why should we worry about scientific conjunction fallacies?

Active VLF Transmission Experiments Between the DSX and VPM Spacecraft

AbstractThis study presents results from magnetic field line conjunctions between the medium‐Earth orbiting Demonstration and Science Experiments (DSX) satellite and the low‐Earth orbiting (LEO) very low frequencies (VLF) Propagation Mapper (VPM) satellite. DSX transmitted at VLF toward VPM, which was equipped with a single‐axis dipole electric field antenna, when the two spacecraft passed near the same magnetic field line. VPM did not observe DSX signals in any of the 27 attempted conjunction experiments; the goal of this study, therefore, is to explain why DSX signals were not received. Explanations include (a) the predicted power at LEO from DSX transmissions was too low for VPM to observe; (b) VPM's trajectory missed the “spot” of highest intensity due to the focused ray paths reaching LEO; or (c) rays mirrored before reaching VPM. Different combinations of these explanations are found. We present ray‐tracing analysis for each conjunction event to predict the distribution of power and wave normal angles in the vicinity of VPM at LEO altitudes. We find that, for low‐frequency (below 4 kHz) transmissions, nearly all rays mirror before reaching LEO, resulting in low amplitudes at LEO. For mid‐ and high‐frequency transmissions (∼8 and 28 kHz respectively), the power at LEO is above the noise threshold of the VPM receiver (between 0.5 μV/m and 1 μV/m). We conclude that the antenna efficiency and plasmasphere model are critical in determining the predicted power at LEO, and are also the two most significant sources of uncertainty that could explain the apparent discrepancy between predicted amplitudes and VPM observations.

COMPASS: A New COnductance Model Based on PFISR And SWARM Satellite Observations

AbstractIonospheric conductance plays a crucial and active role in magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere coupling processes. Despite its importance, direct global observations of conductance are unavailable. This limitation inspires the development of empirical models that are widely used to specify global distributions of conductance indirectly. In this work, a new model, COnductance Model based on PFISR And SWARM Satellite observations, describing the statistical relationships between conductance and field‐aligned currents (FACs) is presented. The conductance was calculated using the electron densities measured by Poker Flat Incoherent Scattering Radar (PFISR), and the FACs were determined by the magnetic perturbations measured by SWARM at Low‐Earth Orbit. Between 2014 and 2020, there were ∼3,900 conjunction events between PFISR and SWARM, providing a large data set for investigating the relationship between conductance and FACs. It is found that both Hall and Pedersen conductances vary as a power of , and the power index a depends on magnetic local time and the direction of FACs, ranging from 0.0 to 0.6. Properties of this power index a are founded as follows: (a) the largest power index is obtained on the dawn side, and the minimum is at noon; and (b) the power indices are positive for both upward and downward FACs and are larger for upward FACs than downward FACs. The underlying physical mechanisms of the observed variations of the model parameters are also discussed. Despite the complicated relationship between FACs and conductance, this model provides a convenient way to specify global distributions of the auroral zone conductance.

The design and performance of charged particle detector onboard the GECAM mission

The Gravitational wave highly energetic Electromagnetic Counterpart All-sky Monitor (GECAM) is dedicated to detecting gravitational wave gamma-ray bursts. It is capable of all-sky monitoring over and discovering gamma-ray bursts and new radiation phenomena. GECAM consists of two microsatellites, each equipped with 8 charged particle detectors (CPDs) and 25 gamma-ray detectors (GRDs). The CPD is used to measure charged particles in the space environment, monitor energy and flow intensity changes, and identify between gamma-ray bursts and space charged particle events in conjunction with GRD. CPD uses plastic scintillator as the sensitive material for detection, silicon photomultiplier array as the optically readable device, and the inlaid Am-241 radioactive source as the onboard calibration means. In this paper, we will present the working principle, physical design, functional implementation and preliminary performance test results of the CPD. As a result, the energy range of electron, gamma-ray detection efficiency and dead time are tested to be better than the indexes required through the ground calibration experiment.

The Animal Origin of Major Human Infectious Diseases: What Can Past Epidemics Teach Us About Preventing the Next Pandemic?

Emerging infectious diseases are one of the greatest public health challenges. Approximately three-quarters of these diseases are of animal origin. These diseases include classical zoonoses maintained in humans only via transmission from other vertebrates (e.g., rabies) and those initiated by a successful one-off zoonotic event (host-switch) in conjunction with efficient human-to-human transmission (e.g., H1N1 influenza). Here, we provide a systematic review, in conjunction with a meta-analysis and spatial risk modeling, to identify the major characteristics of past epidemics of animal origin and predict areas with high future disease emergence risk. Countermeasures against future pandemics of animal origin must focus on several key mechanisms. First, the eco-epidemiological contexts favoring spillover events must be clearly establish. Second, pathogen surveillance must be scaled up, particularly in taxa and/or eco-geographic areas with high disease emergence risk. Third, successful spillover risk must be mitigated through proactive strategies to interrupt animal-to-human transmission chains. Fourth, to decrease epidemic potential and prevent epidemics from becoming pandemics, improved source identification and real-time spatial tracking of diseases are crucial. Finally, because pandemics do not respect international borders, enhancing international collaboration is critical to improving preparedness and response.

Multipoint Measurement of Fine‐Structured EMIC Waves by Arase, Van Allen Probe A, and Ground Stations

AbstractWe examined the growth and propagation of fine‐structured electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves related to time‐varying density irregularities using multipoint measurement data observed by Arase, Van Allen Probe A, and two ground‐based induction magnetometers (Gakona and Dawson) during a field line conjunction event on April 18, 2019. We analyzed the wave data obtained by the aforementioned spacecraft and stations, and found that the appearance of fine structures in the observed EMIC waves clearly coincided with the ambient electron density irregularities in the magnetosphere, which can cause periodic wave growth and waveguiding on their propagation. Furthermore, we found that the latitudinal widths of the EMIC wave activity region and the wave propagation duct were ∼185 km and less than 80 km at an auroral altitude of 100 km, respectively. We also found thermal ion heating ( eV/q) during the EMIC wave activity.

Stevens-Johnson syndrome linked to tramadol use and ultraviolet radiation

Abstract Rationale: Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) is a cutaneous reaction characterized by necrosis and epidermal detachment, commonly triggered by medications. Tramadol rarely causes SJS, and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) has limited recognition as being linked to SJS presentations. Patient concerns: A previously healthy 18-year-old female presented to the emergency department with what she believed to be a severe sunburn. Five days prior, she was exposed to extensive sun exposure while swimming all day at a lake. The following day, she developed a rash on her shoulders, which became widespread, extending to the palms of her hands and soles of her feet, and eventually involved her oral and ocular mucosa. At the time of hospital admission, the rash had progressed to form vesicles/bullae with skin sloughing and a positive Nikolsky sign, bleeding ulcers throughout the oral mucosa, and bilateral conjunctival hyperemia with purulent discharge. Diagnosis: The patient reported no medication use apart from a single dose of tramadol 7 to 10 days prior to rash onset. Given the clinical presentation and histopathological findings that were consistent with SJS, a diagnosis of SJS was made. The nature of this patient's rash onset, character, and progression suggests that UVR precipitated the event in conjunction with tramadol as the causative agent. Interventions: The patient received fluid resuscitation and was transferred via air ambulance to a trauma and burn center to receive treatment. Outcomes: Complete resolution of the patient's cutaneous and oral mucosal lesions occurred 4 weeks after discharge; however, hypopigmentation was evident in areas where cutaneous re-epithelialization had occurred. The patient was advised to strictly avoid the use of tramadol and limit her exposure to UVR. Lesson: Physicians should be aware that tramadol may cause SJS and that UVR may precipitate SJS in patients taking tramadol. Rapid diagnosis of SJS and transfer to a trauma or burn center improves patient outcomes.

Partial mental simulation explains fallacies in physical reasoning

ABSTRACT People can reason intuitively, efficiently, and accurately about everyday physical events. Recent accounts suggest that people use mental simulation to make such intuitive physical judgments. But mental simulation models are computationally expensive; how is physical reasoning relatively accurate, while maintaining computational tractability? We suggest that people make use of partial simulation, mentally moving forward in time only parts of the world deemed relevant. We propose a novel partial simulation model, and test it on the physical conjunction fallacy, a recently observed phenomenon [Ludwin-Peery et al. (2020). Broken physics: A conjunction-fallacy effect in intuitive physical reasoning. Psychological Science, 31(12), 1602–1611. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620957610] that poses a challenge for full simulation models. We find an excellent fit between our model's predictions and human performance on a set of scenarios that build on and extend those used by Ludwin-Peery et al. [(2020). Broken physics: A conjunction-fallacy effect in intuitive physical reasoning. Psychological Science, 31(12), 1602–1611. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620957610], quantitatively and qualitatively accounting for deviations from optimal performance. Our results suggest more generally how we allocate cognitive resources to efficiently represent and simulate physical scenes.

Field‐Aligned Electron Density Distribution of the Inner Magnetosphere Inferred From Coordinated Observations of Arase and Van Allen Probes

AbstractThe Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) and the Arase satellites have different inclinations and sometimes they fly both near the equator and off the equator on the same magnetic field line simultaneously. Such conjunction events give us opportunities to compare the electron density at different latitudes. In this study, we analyzed the plasma waves observed by Arase and RBSP during the three conjunction events during and after the September 7, 2017 storm. The electron number density at the satellite positions was estimated from frequencies of the Upper Hybrid Resonance emissions obtained by the High Frequency Analyzer of the Plasma Wave Experiment onboard the Arase and the Waves instrument onboard the RBSP, respectively. During the three conjunction events, the satellites passed through the plume, inner trough (the narrow region with low electron density between the main body of the plasmasphere and the plume), plasmatrough with variable electron density, and partially refilled plasmasphere. The power‐law index m for the inner trough and plume was inferred to be 4–7 and ∼0, respectively. This is interpreted to mean that the trough was close to collisionless and the plume was relatively near diffusive equilibrium. In the plasmatrough with the varying density, both the high‐density and low‐density regions had m ∼ 0. The low‐density portion of this region may have a different origin from the inner trough, because of the different m indices. For the partially refilled plasmasphere in the storm recovery phase, the power‐law index m showed negative values, meaning that the density in the equatorial plane was higher than at higher latitudes.

Quantum Cognition.

Uncertainty is an intrinsic part of life; most events, affairs, and questions are uncertain. A key problem in behavioral sciences is how the mind copes with uncertain information. Quantum probability theory offers a set of principles for inference, which align well with intuition about psychological processes in certain cases: cases when it appears that inference is contextual, the mental state changes as a result of previous judgments, or there is interference between different possibilities. We motivate the use of quantum theory in cognition and its key characteristics. For each of these characteristics, we review relevant quantum cognitive models and empirical support. The scope of quantum cognitive models encompasses fallacies in decision-making (such as the conjunction fallacy or the disjunction effect), question order effects, conceptual combination, evidence accumulation, perception, over-/underdistribution effects in memory, and more. Quantum models often formalize psychological ideas previously expressed in heuristic terms, allow unified explanations of previously disparate findings, and have led to several surprising, novel predictions. We also cast a critical eye on quantum models and consider some of their shortcomings and issues regarding their further development.

Good Guesses

AbstractThis paper is about guessing: how people respond to a question when they aren't certain of the answer. Guesses show surprising and systematic patterns that the most obvious theories don't explain. We argue that these patterns reveal that people aim to optimize a tradeoff between accuracy and informativity when forming their guess. After spelling out our theory, we use it to argue that guessing plays a central role in our cognitive lives. In particular, our account of guessing yields new theories of belief, assertion, and the conjunction fallacy—the psychological finding that people sometimes rank a conjunction as more probable than one of its conjuncts. More generally, we suggest that guessing helps explain how boundedly rational agents like us navigate a complex, uncertain world.

Reasoning strategy vs cognitive capacity as predictors of individual differences in reasoning performance

The dual strategy model posits that reasoners rely on two information processing strategies when making inferences: The statistical strategy generates a rapid probabilistic estimate based on associative access to a wide array of information, and the counterexample strategy uses a more focused representation allowing for a search for potential counterexamples. In this paper, we focused on individual differences in strategy use as a predictor of performance on four reasoning tasks: Belief bias, base rate neglect, conjunction fallacy, and denominator neglect. Predictions from the strategy use model were contrasted with predictions from Dual Process Theories, which suggest that individual differences in performance reflect variations in cognitive ability. In each of four studies, a large number (N ≈ 200) completed one of the above reasoning tasks, a strategy use diagnostic questionnaire, and measures of IQ, cognitive reflection, and numeracy. In three of four studies, individual differences in strategy use predicted differences in reasoning performance when the effects of the other variables were eliminated. Bayesian analysis indicated that none of the individual differences measures predicted a significant portion of variance on the conjunction fallacy task, and that strategy use was a strong predictor on the remaining three tasks. This research suggests that the type of strategy that is adopted paves a road to successful reasoning that is independent of cognitive capacity.

The association between the belief in coronavirus conspiracy theories, miracles, and the susceptibility to conjunction fallacy.

SummaryPrevious research has shown that people who endorse conspiracy theories are more prone to the conjunction fallacy: the tendency to perceive conjunct events as more probable than constituent events. The present study examined the relationship between specific beliefs (belief in conspiracy theories, religiosity) and the susceptibility to conjunction errors (CEs) in specific domains. A total of 500 participants was presented with brief scenarios from the domains “coronavirus conspiracy,” “miraculous healing,” and a control condition. Each scenario included one statement about a separate event and a second statement about two joint events co‐occurring. The participants estimated the probability of each statement. Results showed that the number of CEs made in the coronavirus domain was only associated with the belief in conspiracy theories, while general religiosity was only associated with CEs for scenarios describing miraculous healings. The assessed beliefs were not associated with CEs made in the control condition. Results suggest that distinct beliefs are uniquely associated with the susceptibility to conjunction errors in particular domains.

Lack of Associations Between C-Reactive Protein and Mood and Anxiety Symptoms in Adolescents.

Introduction: Increased peripheral inflammation has been consistently documented in both adult and pediatric depression. However, elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a nonspecific biomarker for inflammation, have been primarily reported in adults; whether CRP plays a similar role in adolescent depression has not been conclusively established. In our prior work, we identified relationships between CRP and reward neurocircuitry in adolescents with psychiatric symptoms (N = 64) but not with depressive symptoms. Extending this work, we sought to examine CRP across the full range of mood and anxiety symptom severity in a larger, clinically diverse cohort of psychotropic medication-free adolescents and healthy controls (HCs). Methods: Subjects were adolescents (N = 127, age: 15.17 ± 2.19 years, 78 female) with psychiatric symptoms (n = 96, including previous cohort of 64) and HC (n = 31). All completed a semi-structured psychiatric evaluation and dimensional assessments for depression, anxiety, anhedonia, and suicidality. Group-comparison and correlation analyses utilized nonparametric statistics controlled for body mass index, sex, and age at pFWE < 0.05. Results: No group differences were identified in CRP levels between the clinical cohort and HCs. In addition, correlations between CRP and clinical symptomatology were not significant in either the whole sample or the psychiatric group. Conclusions: We found that, unlike in adults, CRP was not associated with depressive symptoms. This suggests that inflammation in pediatric depression is more narrowly delimited at the onset of psychiatric symptoms and may only become systemic with chronicity.

Indirect illusory inferences from disjunction: a new bridge between deductive inference and representativeness

We provide a new link between deductive and probabilistic reasoning fallacies. Illusory inferences from disjunction are a broad class of deductive fallacies traditionally explained by recourse to a matching procedure that looks for content overlap between premises. In two behavioral experiments, we show that this phenomenon is instead sensitive to real-world causal dependencies and not to exact content overlap. A group of participants rated the strength of the causal dependence between pairs of sentences. This measure is a near perfect predictor of fallacious reasoning by an independent group of participants in illusory inference tasks with the same materials. In light of these results, we argue that all extant accounts of these deductive fallacies require non-trivial adjustments. Crucially, these novel indirect illusory inferences from disjunction bear a structural similarity to seemingly unrelated probabilistic reasoning problems, in particular the conjunction fallacy from the heuristics and biases literature. This structural connection was entirely obscure in previous work on these deductive problems, due to the theoretical and empirical focus on content overlap. We argue that this structural parallelism provides arguments against the need for rich descriptions and individuating information in the conjunction fallacy, and we outline a unified theory of deductive illusory inferences from disjunction and the conjunction fallacy, in terms of Bayesian confirmation theory.

Coherent lower and upper conditional previsions defined by Hausdorff inner and outer measures to represent the role of conscious and unconscious thought in human decision making

The model of coherent lower and upper conditional previsions, based on Hausdorff inner and outer measures, is proposed to represent the preference orderings and the equivalences, respectively assigned by the conscious and unconscious thought in human decision making under uncertainty. Complexity of partial information is represented by the Hausdorff dimension of the conditioning event. When the events, that describe the decision problem, are measurable is represented to the s-dimensional Hausdorff outer measure, where s is the Hausdorff dimension of the conditioning event, an optimal decision can be reached. The model is applied and discussed in Linda’s Problem and the conjunction fallacy is resolved.

Risk assessment of recent high-interest conjunctions

There have been several recent high-profile space events, notably the conjunctions of the Aeolus and Starlink spacecraft (both maneuverable) and the IRAS and GGSE-4 spacecraft (both dead). Here, we examine the timeline, activities, and risks associated with each of these conjunction events. To accomplish this, we fused observations from the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to produce a sequence of high-accuracy orbit solutions and used that sequence to generate three-dimensional, dynamic progressions of each conjunction's miss distance, collision probability and its relation to the dilution threshold. Probability of Collision (Pc) is an essential tool for assessing conjunction threats. The Pc Topology tool characterizes the evolution of a conjunction's miss distance and collision probability, both of which are critical inputs to the maneuver avoidance decision-making process and exposing SSA deficiencies. We show the effect of combined hardbody radius (CHBR) on Pc as well as modeling with different shapes. Additionally, the Pc Topology tool reveals the calculation's placement in/out of the dilution region.The European Space Agency commanded the Aeolus spacecraft to perform an emergency maneuver to avoid this high-probability collision hazard. Our results indicate that this maneuver was warranted based upon ESA's decision threshold criteria and the Pc Topology trending analysis. While both collision events fortunately did not occur, we estimated the potential debris fields that these events may have generated had they occurred. Realizing that large debris production might be a factor in maneuver decision making, we then assess the impact of these fragmentation fields upon estimated operator workload and subsequent collision risk.