Lake Evaporation Research Articles

Mountain Lake Evaporation: A Comparative Study between Hourly Estimations Models and In Situ Measurements

The quantification of evaporation is very important for water resource management, determination of water availability and environmental modeling. Evaporation (E) is a key component of the hydrological cycle, which becomes more relevant under a changing climate scenario, where increases in temperature and E are projected on a regional scale. This study evaluated the hourly applicability of 21 methods to estimate E in a mountain lake. Models were grouped as combination, solar radiation-temperature and mass transfer methods. Estimated E by all models were compared to three measurement campaigns with an eddy covariance system in Lake Laja during the month of January (22 to 28), March (17 to 23) and November (09 to 15) of 2016. The average evaporated water during the measurement sessions were 3.40, 3.38 and 1.89 mm d−1, respectively. Best model performance was obtained with models whose main E principles are heat flow and water vapor flow. The best performance in this group was the Penman model using a calibrated wind function with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.91, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) of 0.9, and index of agreement (W) of 0.98. Comparing daytime and nighttime hours, it was found that the daytime E in the lake is best explained by the product of the vapor pressure deficit and wind speed, while the nighttime E was explained by the flow of heat in the water. The results highlight the importance of the analysis of diurnal dynamics of water flux and energy stored in water to better understand the E in water bodies.

Past variation in Lower Peace River ice-jam flood frequency

Opposing interpretations of Lower Peace River ice-jam flood frequency data sets are at the centre of identifying causes of reduced freshwater availability in the Peace-Athabasca Delta (northern Alberta), a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance and a major contributor to Wood Buffalo National Park’s listing as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Recently, conclusions drawn from statistical inference of traditional knowledge and historical observation sources suggested that flood frequency was accelerating during 1880–1967 and then declined coincident with hydroelectric regulation of Peace River flow since 1968 that altered the river’s hydrograph. In contrast, prior paleolimnological measurements of laminated sediments from oxbow lakes proximal to the Peace River have, along with alternate presentation of the traditional knowledge and historical observation sources, identified flood frequency was in decline for decades preceding river regulation due to climate change since the Little Ice Age. Here we revisit these data sets and, specifically, review their inherent uncertainties to assess their value and limitations. The notion of increasing versus decreasing flood frequency in the decades preceding river regulation (1880–1967) is tested using previously published paleohydrological records from perched lakes in the delta. Those records from lakes most proximal and sensitive to changes in the flow regime of the Peace River show increasing influence of lake evaporation during 1880–1967, consistent with long-term decline in flood frequency. Reconciling uncertainties of multiple lines-of-evidence and their findings should inform decisions by UNESCO on the World Heritage status of Wood Buffalo National Park and execution of the park’s federally funded Action Plan. New paleolimnological studies that have recently been launched will continue to probe the hydrological history of the Peace-Athabasca Delta to serve as a foundation for effective stewardship.

Multivariate framework for the assessment of key forcing to Lake Malawi level variations in non-stationary frequency analysis

Lake Malawi in south eastern Africa is a very important freshwater system for the socio-economic development of the riparian countries and communities. The lake has however experienced considerable recession in the levels in recent years. Consequently, frequency analyses of the lake levels premised on time-invariance (or stationarity) in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution functions (pdfs) can no longer be assumed. In this study, the role of hydroclimate forcing factors (rainfall, lake evaporation, and inflowing discharge) and low frequency climate variability indicators (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation-ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode-IODM) on lake level variations is investigated using a monthly mean lake level dataset from 1899 to 2017. Non-stationarity in the lake levels was tested and confirmed using the Mann-Kendall trend test (α = 0.05 level) for the first moment and the F test for the second moment (α = 0.05 level). Change points in the series were identified using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test. The study also compared stationary and non-stationary lake level frequency during 1961 to 2004, the common period where data were available for all the forcing factors considered. Annual maximum series (AMS) and peak over threshold (POT) analysis were conducted by fitting various candidate extreme value distributions (EVD) and parameter fitting methods. The Akaike information criteria (AIC), Bayesian information criteria (BIC), deviance information criteria (DIC), and likelihood ratios (RL) served as model evaluation criteria. Under stationary conditions, the AMS when fitted to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was found to be superior to POT analysis. For the non-stationary models, open water evaporation as a covariate of the lake levels with the GEV and MLE was found to have the most influence on the lake level variations as compared with rainfall, discharge, and the low frequency climatic forcing. The results are very critical in flood zoning especially with various planned infrastructural developments around the lakeshore.

Global lake responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate.

Quantifying the evaporation amounts of 75 high-elevation large dimictic lakes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Lake evaporation can influence basin-wide hydrological cycles and is an important factor in loss of water resources in endorheic lakes of the Tibetan Plateau. Because of the scarcity of data, published lake evaporation values are inconsistent, and their spatial distribution has never been reported. Presenting a plausible hypothesis of energy balance during the ice-free seasons, we explored the multiyear (2003-2016) average ice phenology and evaporation amounts of 75 large dimictic lakes by using a combination of meteorological and satellite data. Evaporation amounts show large variability in spatial distribution, with a pattern of higher values in the south. Lakes with higher elevation, smaller area, and higher latitude are generally associated with a shorter ice-free season and lower evaporation. The total evaporated water amounts have values of approximately 29.4 ± 1.2 km3 year-1 for the 75 studied lakes and 51.7 ± 2.1 km3 year-1 for all plateau lakes included.

New insights into Holocene hydrology and temperature from lipid biomarkers in western Mediterranean alpine wetlands

Alpine regions of the Mediterranean realm are among the most climatically sensitive areas in the world. Thus, alpine wetlands from the southern Iberian Peninsula, in the westernmost part of the Mediterranean region, are highly sensitive sensors of environmental changes. Difficulties have surfaced in separating controls by temperature and/or precipitation in previous paleoenvironmental studies from alpine environments in this area. We present a Holocene biomarker record (n-alkanes and long-chain diols) from a high elevation lake, Laguna de Río Seco (LdRS), in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, which contributes to the identification of these forcing mechanisms. The hydrological history of the area, primarily water availability and evapotranspiration, is reconstructed by means of the n-alkane record, including the indices of average chain length, portion aquatic, and carbon preference index, as well as hydrogen isotopes (δD) of aquatic (δDaq) and terrestrial (δDwax) n-alkanes. Temperatures are also estimated using the algae derived long-chain diols. We interpret δDaq and δDwax fluctuations as showing changes in the source and amount of precipitation throughout the LdRS record. An Atlantic precipitation source appears to have predominated during the early-middle Holocene, but an occasional Mediterranean influence with an isotopic enrichment in precipitation is detected in the middle-late Holocene that is likely related to the setting of the current atmospheric pattern in southeastern Iberia under the joint control of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean dynamics, such as the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). Our new record from LdRS is consistent with a generalized trend of a humid early-middle Holocene with low temperature variability, evolving towards an arid middle-late Holocene with abrupt temperature changes. In addition to these long-term trends during the last ∼10,500 years, two phases of climate instability, evidenced by abrupt depletions in δDaq, have been identified at the end of these periods, one between ∼6500 and 5500 cal yr BP and another in the last ∼500 years. These episodes would represent strengthened winter cold conditions that favoured the persistence of snowpack and frozen soil in the catchment, causing reduced terrestrial plant growth and low lake evaporation. According to the long-chain diol record, temperatures during these phases were relatively low, but experienced abrupt increases at the end of each period.

Precipitation Dominates Long-Term Water Storage Changes in Nam Co Lake (Tibetan Plateau) Accompanied by Intensified Cryosphere Melts Revealed by a Basin-Wide Hydrological Modelling

Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have changed dramatically as a result of climate change during recent decades. Studying the changes in long-term lake water storage (LWS) is of great importance for regional water security and ecosystems. Nam Co Lake is the second largest lake in the central TP. To investigate the long-term changes in LWS, a distributed cryosphere-hydrology model (WEB-DHM) driven by multi-source data was evaluated and then applied to simulate hydrological processes across the whole Nam Co Lake basin from 1980 to 2016. Firstly, a comparison of runoff (lake inflow), land surface temperature, and snow depth between the model simulations and observations or remote sensing products showed that WEB-DHM could accurately simulate hydrological processes in the basin. Meanwhile, the simulated daily LWS was in good agreement with satellite-derived data during 2000–2016. Secondly, long-term simulations showed that LWS increased by 9.26 km3 during 1980–2016, reaching a maximum in 2010 that was 10.25 km3 greater than that in 1980. During this period, LWS firstly decreased (1980–1987), then increased (1988–2008), and decreased again (2009–2016). Thirdly, the contributions of precipitation runoff, melt-water runoff, lake surface precipitation, and lake evaporation to Nam Co LWS were 71%, 33%, 24%, and -28%, respectively. Snow and glacier melting have significantly intensified during recent decades (2.96 m3 s−1/decade on average), contributing a mean proportion of 22% of lake inflows. These findings are consistent with the significant increasing trends of annual precipitation and temperature in the lake basin (25 mm/decade and 0.4 K/decade, respectively). We conclude that long-term variations in Nam Co LWS during 1980–2016 were largely controlled by precipitation; however, the contribution of precipitation runoff to total lake inflow has decreased while the contribution from warming-induced snow and glacier melting has significantly increased.

Air-sea interactions on Titan: Lake evaporation, atmospheric circulation, and cloud formation

Titan's abundant lakes and seas exchange methane vapor and energy with the atmosphere via a process generally known as air-sea interaction. This turbulent exchange process is investigated with an atmospheric mesoscale model coupled to a slab model representation of an underlying lake. The impact of lake size, effective lake mixed layer depth, background wind speed, air-lake temperature differential, and atmospheric humidity on air-sea interaction processes is studied through dozens of two-dimensional simulations. The general, quasi-steady solution is a non-linear superposition of a very weak background plume circulation driven by the buoyancy of evaporated methane with a stronger opposing thermally direct (sea breeze) circulation driven by the thermal contrast between the cold marine layer over the lake and the warmer inland air. The specific solution depends on the value of selected atmosphere and lake property parameters, but the general solution of the superposition of these two circulations is persistent. Consistent with previous analytical work of others, the sensible heat flux and the latent heat flux trend toward opposite and equal values such that their ratio, the Bowen ratio, approaches −1.0 in most, but not all, of the quasi-steady state solutions. Importantly, in nearly all scenarios, the absolute magnitude of the fluxes trends toward very small values such that the equilibrium solution is also nearly a trivial solution where air-sea energy exchange is ~3 W m−2 or less. In all cases, a cool, moist, and statically stable shallow marine layer with nearly calm winds and small turbulent flux exchanges with a colder underlying lake is produced by the model. The temperature of the lake, the marine properties of the air, and the strength of the sea breeze depends on the initial conditions and to a lesser degree, the boundary conditions.

Radiation Controls the Interannual Variability of Evaporation of a Subtropical Lake

AbstractDoes lake evaporation increase or decrease under the scenario of climate warming? This paper aims to answer this question by investigating the controlling mechanism of interannual variations in lake evaporation at a subtropical lake. The research methodology is based on continuous eddy covariance measurement over >7 years and a diagnostic analysis using the surface energy balance principle. The results indicate that lake evaporation was enhanced mainly by increasing energy inputs including solar radiation and incoming longwave radiation and was weakened by surface feedback through outgoing longwave radiation. The incoming longwave radiation was positively correlated with cloud cover. Bowen ratio and surface albedo had slight effect on the change of lake evaporation. The annual lake evaporation can be predicted by the Priestly‐Taylor model using a larger coefficient of 1.39 than the original value of 1.26, suggesting that advection or entrainment in the atmospheric boundary layer may play a role in lake evaporation.

A continuous simulation of Holocene effective moisture change represented by variability of virtual lake level in East and Central Asia

The fluctuation of a single lake level is a comprehensive reflection of water balance within the basin, while the regional consistent fluctuations of lake level can indicate the change of regional effective moisture. Previous researches were mainly focused on reconstructing effective moisture by multiproxy analyses of lake sediments. We carried out a series of experiments, including a transient climate evolution model, a lake energy balance model and a lake water balance model to simulate continuous Holocene effective moisture change represented by variability of virtual lake level in East and Central Asia. The virtual lake level, area, water depth and salinity are not equivalent to actual values, but we estimated relative changes of the regional effective moisture. We also explored the driving mechanisms of effective moisture change in different geographical regions. Our results indicated that gradually falling effective moisture during the Holocene in northern China was due to the combined effects of high lake evaporation caused by longwave and shortwave radiation, and low precipitation caused by reductions of summer solar insolation. A decline in effective moisture through the Holocene in the Tibetan Plateau and southern Central Asia resulted from decreased precipitation because of the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. Increased precipitation induced by the strengthening of the westerly circulation contributed to the effective moisture rise during the Holocene in northern Central Asia.

Stable Existence of Tropical Endorheic Lakes on Titan

AbstractCassini detected numerous hydrocarbon seas/lakes in the polar region of Titan and wide areas of sand seas in the tropical region, which initially led to the perception that Titan's tropical region may be too dry for lakes. Yet, a few tropical lakes were possibly seen on Cassini's near‐infrared images, while they were not seen by other imaging instruments. This study shows by a lake balance model in combination with a global climate model and global topography map that a few lakes can perennially exist in Titan's tropical drainage basins of Shangri‐La, Tui Regio, and Hotei Regio. This is possible because the lakes are fed by precipitation in a huge catchment area, while efficient lake evaporation occurs only in a small area inside of deep topographic depressions. However, tropical lakes may occasionally desiccate due to orbitally forced changes in tropical precipitation.

Wetland restoration design modifications to mitigate climate change impacts at Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area: A case study report

Author(s): Noon, Kevin F. | Abstract: Historic temperature and precipitation trends, and their projected climate change effects, were used to inform the development of wetland design tactics to restore a 30-acre degraded wetland at Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. The adverse effects of climate change to be addressed in the restoration design include increasing average daily air temperatures, rising stream and groundwater temperatures, increasing stream erosion, increasing precipitation, and increasing lake evaporation. Specific actions or tactics were developed that provide prescriptive direction in how restoration strategies can be translated to changes in on-the-ground conditions. Traditional on-the-ground tactics are described, along with modifications to the traditional tactics that should facilitate adaptation and increase the system’s capacity to survive adverse effects of climate change.

A Comparison of the Diurnal Variation in Lake Surface Temperature for the Five Major Lakes of the Savannah River Basin

Satellite measurements of lake surface temperature can benefit several environmental applications such as estimation of lake evaporation, predictions of lake overturning, and meteorological forecasts. Using a one-dimensional lake simulation that incorporates satellite measurements of lake surface temperature, the average diurnal variation in lake surface temperature was obtained. The satellite measurements were obtained from the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. Herein the functional form for the diurnal variation in surface temperature is presented for each of the five major lakes in the Savannah River Basin, which are located in South Carolina and Georgia: Lakes Jocassee, Keowee, Hartwell, Russell, and Thurmond. Differences in the diurnal variation in surface temperature between each of these lakes are identified and potential explanations for these differences are presented.

Groundwater modeling of Musi basin Hyderabad, India: a case study

In general, groundwater flow and transport models are being applied to investigate a wide variety of hydrogeological conditions besides to calculate the rate and direction of movement of groundwater through aquifers and confining units in the subsurface. Transport models estimate the concentration of a chemical in groundwater which requires the development of a calibrated groundwater flow model or, at a minimum, an accurate determination of the velocity and direction of groundwater flow that is based on field data. All the available hydrogeological, geophysical and water quality data in Musi basin, Hyderabad, India, were fed as input to the model to obtain the groundwater flow velocities and the interaction of surface water and groundwater and thereby seepage loss was estimated. This in turn paved the way to calculate the capacity of the storage treatment plants (STP) to be established at the inlets of six major lakes of the basin. The total dissolved solid was given as the pollutant load in the mass transport model, and through model simulation, its migration at present and futuristic scenarios was brought out by groundwater flow and mass transport modeling. The average groundwater velocity estimated through the flow model was 0.26 m/day. The capacities of STP of various lakes in the study area were estimated based on the lake seepage and evaporation loss. Based on the groundwater velocity and TDS as pollutant load in the lakes, the likely contamination from lakes at present and for the next 20 years was predicted.

Influence of the regional climate variations on lake changes of Zabuye, Dangqiong Co and Bankog Co salt lakes in Tibet

The lake hydrological and meteorological data of the Tibetan Plateau are not rich. This research reports the observed climatic data and measured water levels of saline lakes from the local meteorological stations in the Zabuye salt lake, the Dangqiong Co salt lake and the Bankog Co salt lake in recent two decades. Combining with satellite remote sensing maps, we have analyzed the changes of the water level of these three lakes in recent years and discussed the origins of the changes induced by the meteorological factors. The results show that the annual mean temperature and the water level reflect a general ascending trend in these three lakes during the observation period. The rising rates of the annual mean temperature were 0.08°C/yr during 1991–2014 and 0.07°C/yr during 2004–2014, and of the water level, were 0.032 m/yr and 0.24 m/yr, respectively. Analysis of changes of the meteorological factors shows the main cause for the increase of lake water quantity are the reduced lake evaporation and the increased precipitation in the lake basins by the rise of average temperature. Seasonal variation of lake water level is powered largely by the supply of lake water types and the seasonal change of regional climate.

Surface and Groundwater Hydrochemistry of the Menengai Caldera Geothermal Field and Surrounding Nakuru County, Kenya

In order to assess the sustainability and impact of production from geothermal reservoirs on hydrological systems, a thorough understanding of local and regional hydrogeological systematics is a prerequisite. The Menengai Caldera in the Kenya Great Rift Valley is one of the largest explored geothermal fields in the country. This paper presents a hydrochemical investigation of the Menengai Caldera geothermal field and the ground and surface waters of the surrounding Nakuru County. Our results demonstrated a similar, sodium-alkaline dominated, ionic composition across all water types. Geothermal wells return the highest cation/anion concentrations and largely demonstrate a meteoric source from their δ18O and δ2H signature. Wells MW-09 (central part of the caldera), MW-18 (eastern part) and MW-20 (central part) showed a more evaporitic signature, closely matching with our own calculated Lake Evaporation Line, suggesting an increased mixing influence of Lake Nakuru waters. MW-09 also showed evidence of high-temperature oxygen isotopic exchange and significant water-rock interaction. Lake samples largely demonstrated seasonal shifts in ionic and isotopic values. Lake Nakuru ionic composition and isotopic values increased throughout the 12-month wet–dry–wet season sampling period. This correlated with a decrease in area which suggests a lessening of water inflow and facilitates increased evaporation. Groundwaters demonstrated clear evidence of mixing between meteoric, irrigation and lake waters. These observations enhanced the understanding of the hydrological system surrounding the Menengai Caldera and, when combined with future studies, will provide a powerful tool to assess the sustainability and impact of soon-to-be completed geothermal power production operations.

A low-cost hydrologic observatory for monitoring the water balance of small lakes.

Global warming portends an accelerated water cycle as increased evaporation feeds atmospheric moisture and precipitation. To monitor effects on surface water levels, we describe a low-cost hydrologic observatory suitable for small to medium size lakes. The observatory comprises sensor platforms that were built in-house to compile continuous, sub-daily water budgets. The variables measured directly are lake stage (S), evaporation (E), and precipitation (P). A net inflow term (Qnet) is estimated as a residual in the continuity equation: ∆S = P - E + Qnet. We describe how to build in-lake stilling wells and floating evaporation pans using readily available materials. We assess their performance in laboratory tests and field trials. A 3-month deployment on a small Wisconsin lake (18 ha, 10 m deep) confirms that continuous estimates of ∆S, E, P, and Qnet can be made with good precision and accuracy at hourly time scales. During that deployment, daily estimates of E from the floating evaporation pans were comparable with estimates made using the more data-intensive Bowen ratio energy balance method and a mass transfer model. Since small lakes are numerically dominant and widely distributed across the globe, a network of hydrologic observatories would enable the calibration and validation of climate models and consumptive use policies at local and regional scales. And since the observatories are inexpensive and relatively simple to maintain, citizen scientists could facilitate the expansion of spatial coverage with minimal training.

Key Factors of Precipitation Stable Isotope Fractionation in Central-Eastern Africa and Central Mediterranean

The processes of isotope fractionation in the hydrological cycle naturally occur during vapor formation, vapor condensation, and moisture transportation. These processes are therefore dependent on local and regional surface and atmospheric physical features such as temperature, pressure, wind speed, and land morphology, and hence on the climate. Because of the strong influence of climate on the isotope fractionation, latitudinal and altitudinal effects on the δ18O and δ2H values of precipitation at a global scale are observed. In this study, we present and compare the processes governing precipitation isotope fractionation from two contrasting climatic regions: Virunga in Central-Eastern Africa and the Central Mediterranean (Stromboli and Sicily, Italy). While Virunga is a forested rainy tropical region located between Central and Eastern Africa, the Mediterranean region is characterized by a rainy mild winter and a dry hot summer. The reported δ18O and δ2H dataset are from precipitation collected on rain gauges sampled either on a monthly or an approximately bimonthly basis and published in previous papers. Both regions show clearly defined temporal and altitudinal variations of δ18O and δ2H, depending on precipitation amounts. The Central Mediterranean shows a clear contribution of local vapor forming at the sea–air interface, and Virunga shows a contribution from both local and regional vapor. The vapor of Virunga is from two competing sources: the first is the continental recycled moisture from soil/plant evaporation that dominates during the rainy season, and the second is from the East African Great Lakes evaporation that dominates during the dry season.

The unignorable impacts of pan wall on pan evaporation dynamics

Open water evaporation (Eow), such as evaporation of lake and reservoir, is typically estimated by observations of different pans. The observation networks of pan evaporation (Epan) were established and maintained worldwide for a long history. All the pans in the world consist of water body and pan wall, which includes side wall, pan rim and (if any) pan bottom. Since the pan wall will affect Epan by radiation absorption and heat conduction, once pan wall absorbs and conducts more heat for vaporizing than water body in a pan, observed Epan dynamics will greatly deviate Eow causing uncertainties and errors in estimating Eow. Thus, this study calculated Epan at 767 meteorological stations in China and quantified the contributions of water body and pan wall on Epan trends. For China as a whole, Epan decreased at -3.75 mm/a2 and increased at 3.68 mm/a2 during 1960–1993 and 1993–2016, respectively. 84% of Epan trends were contributed by water body. For 767 stations, Epan trends of 84 and 96 stations were dominated by pan wall during 1960–1993 and 1993–2016, respectively. Since pan wall contributed more than half of Epan trends for ˜23% of the stations in China, the impacts of pan wall on Epan dynamics cannot be ignored.

Evaluating Operational Hydrodynamic Models for Real‐time Simulation of Evaporation From Large Lakes

AbstractMethods for simulating evaporative water loss from Earth's large lakes have lagged behind advances in hydrodynamic modeling. Here we explore use of oceanographic models to simulate lake evaporation from a long‐term water balance perspective. More specifically, we compare long‐term monthly simulations of latent heat flux from two configurations of a current operational hydrodynamic forecasting system (based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, or FVCOM) for the Laurentian Great Lakes. We then compare these simulations to comparable simulations from a legacy conventional lake thermodynamics model, and from a recently developed statistical water balance model. We find that one of the FVCOM configurations that is currently used in operations for short‐term hydrodynamic forecast guidance is also suitable for real‐time simulation of evaporation from very large lakes. The operational versions of FVCOM should therefore be considered a readily available tool for supporting regional water supply management and, pending further research, extended water supply forecasting.