Evacuation Intentions Research Articles

Context matters when evacuating large cities: Shifting the focus from individual characteristics to location and social vulnerability

Climate change is driving extreme weather, heat and flooding, which increasingly require evacuations. Recent studies have found inconclusive results on the determinants of evacuation-related decisions and have reported widely varying evacuation rates, especially in high-density areas. We use a large dataset of geotagged evacuation choices in Paris, France (n = 2976) during a flood, to show that while they are rarely addressed, location, social vulnerability, length of residence, and hazard exposure are critical predictors. They can be used to infer the impact of previous experience on evacuation intentions, which is usually difficult to collect at scales relevant to decision-making. We address multiple evacuation choices over time that have previously been overlooked, including gradually self-fueling spontaneous evacuations after observations of peers evacuating or flooding proximity and post-impact evacuation due to infrastructure disruption. Our findings reveal that many people wait until their home is flooded to evacuate. The gap between the initial share of people leaving immediately and the minority refusing to leave in any case even after their housing is flooded gradually fills when considering different evacuation behaviors over time. Such chronology might explain the wide range of evacuation rates reported in the literature. However, people in vulnerable situations and with increased hazard exposure are more likely to declare that they would disregard evacuation instructions. One key implication is that policies aimed at reducing social vulnerability might be more effective than communication campaigns to increase preparedness and support evacuation.

Factors related to evacuation intention when a Level 4 evacuation order was issued among people with mental health illnesses using group homes in Japan: A cross-sectional study.

This study aimed to identify factors related to the intention to evacuate in a disaster following a Level 4 evacuation order among people with mental health illnesses living in group homes in Japan. The participants were people with mental health conditions living in group homes in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan. We created an original self-administered questionnaire and conducted a survey among this group. Of the 625 people with mental health conditions using group homes, 152 (24.3%) responded. Of these, 110 (5.9%) who provided valid data were included in the analysis. A total of 85 (77.3%) people said that they intended to evacuate in the event of a Level 4 evacuation order. We controlled for gender, age group, type of disability, experience of participating in disaster training, fear of contracting COVID-19 during evacuation, and earthquake and flood disaster experience as confounders. After controlling for these variables, the factors associated with intention to evacuate under a Level 4 evacuation order included not having emergency food prepared (odds ratio [OR] 3.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-14.08); believing that group home users would help them during disasters (OR 3.08, 95% CI: 1.04-9.12); and planning to ask the local government for help (OR 2.84, 95% CI: 1.01-8.01). Group home managers should be aware that people who do not believe that other group home residents would help them, and those not wishing to seek help from local government, may decide not to evacuate. Longitudinal studies across diverse regions are needed to identify factors that affect evacuation intention.

What predicts hurricane evacuation decisions? The importance of efficacy beliefs, risk perceptions, and other factors

Risk theories and empirical research indicate that a variety of factors can influence people’s protective decisions for natural hazards. Using data from an online survey that presented coastal U.S. residents with a hypothetical hurricane scenario, this study investigates the relative importance of cognitive risk perceptions, negative affect, efficacy beliefs, and other factors in explaining people’s anticipated evacuation decisions. The analysis finds that multiple factors, including individual and household characteristics, previous experiences, cognitive and affective risk perceptions, and efficacy beliefs, can help predict hurricane evacuation intentions. However, the largest amount of variance in survey participants’ evacuation intentions is explained by their evacuation-related response efficacy (coping appraisals) and their perceived likelihood of getting hurt if they stay home during the storm. Additional analysis explores how risk perceptions and efficacy beliefs interact to influence people’s responses to risk information. Although further investigation in additional situations is needed, these results suggest that persuading people at high risk that evacuating is likely to reduce harm can serve as an important risk communication lever for motivating hurricane evacuation.

Social and health factors influence self-reported evacuation intentions in the wildfire-prone island of Tasmania, Australia

BackgroundPersonal decisions regarding evacuation to a safer place in response to the threat of wildfire have multiple social and cultural influences. However, little is understood about the role of an individual's health in shaping these decisions. Aim: To investigate associations between self-reported sociodemographic and health-related variables and wildfire evacuation intentions. MethodsWe used data collected in the 2016 Tasmanian Population Health Survey and implemented log binomial regression modelling to characterise associations between variables, including overall health status, presence of a chronic medical condition, age group, sex, educational attainment, employment status, financial security, and intention to leave during a wildfire threat. ResultsFemales were significantly more likely than males to report an intention to leave (RR = 1.52, 95 % CI [1.40–1.66]), as were those with higher versus lower educational attainment (RR = 1.02, 95 % CI [1.00–1.03]), and those with a diagnosis of depression/anxiety (RR = 1.07, 95 % CI [1.00–1.15]) compared to those without. When stratified by sex, significant associations with intention to leave and asthma and higher educational attainment were observed in males (asthma: RR = 1.28, 95 % CI [1.04–1.57]; educational attainment RR = 1.05, 95 % CI [1.01–1.09]), while the association with anxiety/depression was imprecisely elevated for females (RR = 1.08, 95 % CI [1.00–1.16]). For males only, the presence of a chronic condition was significantly associated with an intention to stay (RR = 0.78, 95 % CI [0.62–0.99]). ConclusionSex, educational attainment, and the presence of asthma and depression/anxiety influenced evacuation intentions for residents in our study. Such social, demographic and health differences should be considered in planning communication and messaging to residents in fire-prone areas.

Examining the Factors Influencing Tsunami Evacuation Action Selection in Thailand: A Comprehensive Study Involving Local Residents, Non-Local Workers, and Travelers

Tsunamis are a substantial natural threat in Thailand, as evidenced by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Effective evacuation is vital to reduce casualties and property damage. However, despite improved warning systems, high death tolls still occur, indicating complex evacuation behavior influenced by various factors. This study examines these factors among diverse groups in Phuket and Phang Nga, Thailand. A survey of 1000 locals, non-local workers, and travelers assesses threat and coping appraisals, past tsunami experiences, gender, age, and tsunami evacuation intention and action selection. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze the data based on the hypotheses related to the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). The results of the analyses show that threat and coping appraisals significantly predict tsunami evacuation intention, and gender influences threat perception related to evacuation. Variations among respondent types emphasize the need for tailored disaster preparedness and response strategies. This study offers crucial insights for policymakers, emergency responders, and disaster management stakeholders, underlining the significance of further research into the intricate interplay of individual and contextual factors shaping tsunami evacuation behavior.

Hurricane Risk Perceptions and Evacuation Decision-Making in the Postvaccine Era of COVID-19 in U.S. Coastal States Impacted by North Atlantic Hurricanes

Abstract During peak disease transmission in 2021, the compounding threat posed by the pandemic and hurricane season required coastal states to understand evacuation behaviors during a major hurricane to inform the planning process. While research relating to hurricane evacuation behavior and perceptions of risk has increased since the start of the pandemic, there is minimal understanding of how perceptions have changed now the COVID-19 vaccine is available. A total of 1075 individuals across seven U.S. coastal states participated in a study on evacuation intentions postvaccine availability. Findings revealed that most survey participants (50.9%) preferred to stay home if a major hurricane threatened their area, and only 3.9% would evacuate to a public shelter. Approximately half (56.2%) of individuals viewed the risk of being in a shelter as more dangerous than enduring hurricane hazards. When considering shelter use, nearly half of respondents (49.4%) stated they would evacuate to a shelter before the pandemic; now, only one-third (34.3%) would consider evacuating to a shelter during the pandemic. Statistically significant findings include the relationship between those who lived in evacuation zones A or B (25.5%) and the choice to shelter in place at home (40.5%) or evacuate to a hotel (36.9%). There was a statistically significant relationship between the level of education and choosing to evacuate to a hotel. Additionally, the influence of pet ownership on evacuation decision-making was found to be statistically significant. Officials can use the results of this study to strengthen community preparedness and planning strategies across diverse populations.

Flooding perception and its impact on hurricane evacuation intentions

Just before a hurricane is expected to strike an urban area, evacuation orders are issued to get people to safer zones. Issued by local governments, evacuation orders are made based on the actual flooding risk for individuals living in the affected areas; however, not everyone follows the orders. In past decades, understanding what makes people leave or stay has become a major research objective among academics. Although flooding risk, whether perceived or actual, is considered the main trigger in the evacuation decision-making, it has received little attention. Using data from 2200 households located in the hurricane-prone area of Hampton Roads in Virginia, US, this paper analyzes the role of evacuation zones and the perceived probability of flooding in the perception of risk. The findings reveal that proper evacuation zone awareness and trust in authorities are critical to increasing evacuation intention rates. We also provide several insights for emergency managers and policymakers to proactively plan and communicate the risks for increased evacuation rates that can reduce personal and human losses.

Disparity between evacuation intention and actual evacuation behavior during a heavy rain induced disaster event in Japan: Exploring the role of everyday awareness of disaster preparedness

The purpose of this study was to identify the ex-ante determinants of disaster preparedness in daily life, termed everyday awareness of disaster preparedness, which influence evacuation behavior during heavy rainfall events. A panel survey was conducted among residents of flood- and landslide-prone areas in Ehime Prefecture before and after heavy rainfall. A pre-survey explored a wide range of variables related to participants’ everyday awareness of disaster preparedness prior to heavy rains, followed by a post-survey that examined their actual evacuation behavior when evacuation warnings were issued during subsequent heavy rains. By analyzing the survey data, we identified prior variables related to disaster preparedness that were associated with evacuation choice. The participants had a high level of disaster preparedness, including evacuation intentions, but many of them did not actually evacuate even when evacuation warnings were issued due to heavy rains. Furthermore, only prior contemplation of evacuation criteria (associated with the commitment to evacuate) was directly related to evacuation behavior. Finally, mediation analysis indicated that prior contemplation mediated the relationship between evacuation intentions and actual evacuation. The implications of these findings for education and communications to reduce disaster risk are discussed.

The Anticipated Nankai Trough Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan: Determinant Factors of Residents’ Pre-Event Evacuation Intentions

As a countermeasure against M8–9 class Nankai Trough earthquakes, the Japan Meteorological Agency started a service to release “Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information (Megathrust Earthquake Alert).” This alert is released after an M8.0 or higher earthquake occurs and the possibility of a subsequent earthquake is evaluated to be higher than usual. This is an innovative attempt at disaster mitigation in Japan as it encourages residents in the predefined area to pre-evacuate for one week when tsunami risk is higher. However, the factors influencing the evacuation behavior of residents are unknown. In this study, we investigated factors contributing to residents’ pre-event evacuation intentions using the hierarchical multiple regression analysis. We focused on the extent to which the recognition of the hazards and risks of the Nankai Trough earthquake and the response to the Extra Information, which are changeable by the local governments’ public relations activities, contributed to pre-event evacuation intentions after controlling for disaster-related general attitude and sociodemographic factors. Further, we paid special attention to residents’ degree of recognition of this information by checking the accuracy of their understanding of whether they lived within the pre-event evacuation area. The results showed that the recognition factors were relevant but less so than the general attitude toward disaster and more so than the sociodemographic factors. In addition, residents’ recognition accuracy was low. Our results suggest that it is important for local governments to make adequate efforts to encourage residents to evacuate.

Assessing 2019 Hurricane Harvey Recovery in Aransas County, Texas Through Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER).

The objective of this study was to assess recovery of Aransas County, Texas households 2 years after Category 4 Hurricane Harvey made landfall. A 2-stage cluster sampling method used to conduct a Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) on May 3 - 4 and May 18 - 19, 2019. A household-based survey was administered through face-to-face interviews, selected through systematic random sampling using weighted analysis of the county population. Field teams collected 175 surveys (83.3% completion rate). Approximately 57% households experienced repairable damage, 23% had destroyed homes, and 19% had minimal damage. 38% stated having 'no need,' 18% needed financial assistance, 16% needed household repairs, and over 8% had behavioral health needs. 17% experiencing a behavioral health concern were seeking services. Of the 35% of households who did not seek services, 14% felt there was no need, and 4% were not aware of the resources available. Households reported high levels of preparedness, but gaps remain in evacuation intention and behavioral health care access. CASPERs are effective in assessing long-term recovery of communities impacted by major disasters.

Disaster Evacuation for Home-Based Patients with Special Healthcare Needs: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Recent super-typhoons and torrential rains triggered by global warming have had disproportionately large effects on medically vulnerable people in Japan. This study aimed to identify factors associated with intention to evacuate to the nearest public shelter among family caregivers of pediatric patients receiving home medical care. The study included family caregivers of these patients from the Department of Pediatrics, Fukuoka University Hospital, Japan, including family caregivers of young adults with special healthcare needs. An original questionnaire was prepared drawing on previous studies and used for an interview survey. Overall, 57 individuals provided valid data and were included in the analysis. Factors associated with evacuation intention were non-use of a home ventilator (odds ratio [OR] 3.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-14.03) and not having made arrangements to use a non-public shelter (OR 7.29 95% CI: 1.62-32.88). This means that those who use mechanical ventilation or have secured alternative places to go if they need to evacuate their homes may not use the nearest public shelter in a disaster. We recommend that policy makers consider the use of mechanical ventilation and the availability of non-public shelters as predictors of evacuation behavior when considering disaster preparedness for these patients.

A proposal for mutual-aid-type distributed evacuation based on residents’ evacuation intentions in a hilly and mountainous area of Japan

Flooding and landslide disasters caused by typhoons and heavy rains occur annually in many parts of the world. It is advisable to evacuate to safe places in advance when there is an imminent risk of a disaster. Delayed evacuation is a challenging problem that has been addressed in several studies. This study proposes a mutual-aid-type distributed evacuation policy that effectively utilizes limited community resources available for support in hilly and mountainous areas. Since hilly and mountainous areas often have well-formed communities, they have the potential to develop evacuation plans tailored to the region's actual conditions and its residents, with a focus on mutual aid, while accommodating limited resources. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted using open-ended questions with almost all residents in the study area, which is a hilly and mountainous area in Japan. Based on the results of these surveys, this study clarified the evacuation intentions of residents and identified the community resources. Furthermore, this study proposes a mutual-aid-type distributed evacuation as a suitable evacuation policy for the study area, and verifies its feasibility through a simplified evacuation simulation. In addition, this study discusses the potential for its application in other hilly and mountainous areas in Japan. In the future, as society matures and the population concentrates in urban areas, the number of aging communities is expected to increase. The mutual-aid-type distributed evacuation proposed in this study will contribute to an evacuation policy suitable for such societies.

Modelling evacuation decisions under a threat of volcanic eruption in Auckland

• Preparedness intention to evacuate predict evacuation intention under volcanic hazards. • Attitude is the most influential positive predictor of preparedness intention. • Risk perception positively influences preparedness intention to evacuate. • Individuals who seek information are more likely to wait for an evacuation order. Understanding evacuation decisions of individuals is imperative to establish policies and procedures during emergencies and for long-term societal reconstruction. Five socio-psychological factors contributing to individuals’ evacuation intention under natural hazard conditions are identified from a literature review. These include attitude towards advice given by the authorities, risk perception, social norm, perceived behavioural control and preparedness intention. A conceptual framework is proposed based on the socio-psychological approach to model and analyse the evacuation intention. An online behavioural expectations questionnaire survey is conducted in Auckland, New Zealand, to investigate the evacuation decision-making behaviour of Aucklanders under a hypothetical volcanic eruption scenario. The proposed framework is implemented using the structural equation modelling approach. The results support the proposed model and provide some insights into interrelationships between the predictive factors. Psychological factors, including attitude towards advice given by the authorities, preparedness intention and risk perception, have a significant positive impact on individuals’ evacuation intentions.

Perception of Hurricane and COVID-19 Risks for Household Evacuation and Shelter Intentions

The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges for scholars and government officials to predict people’s evacuation decisions under a conflicting natural disaster. In this study, we examined households’ evacuation and shelter intentions given the potential conflicts between the perceived risks from a hurricane and the coexisting public health crisis. We surveyed households living inside hurricane evacuation zones in Florida during the 2020 hurricane season. Data were first used to examine the evacuation and shelter intentions before and during the pandemic. We then measured respondents’ hurricane and COVID-19 risk perception, respectively. The impacts of both risk perceptions on respondents’ hurricane evacuation intentions were explored. We found that when people felt unsafe to stay home for a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane, their intended evacuation was about the same before and during the pandemic regardless of their COVID-19 risk perception. The COVID-19 risk perception, however, significantly lowered the evacuation intention for a Category 1 hurricane. It also significantly influenced evacuees’ preference for nontraditional shelters such as government-contracted hotels. The results of our study have practical implications for emergency management and public health governance. Our study also provides insights into decision-making under the conflict between natural hazards and infectious diseases.

Stay in Risk Area: Place Attachment, Efficacy Beliefs and Risk Coping.

For residents living in earthquake-threatened areas, choosing suitable risk coping behaviors can effectively reduce the loss of family life and property. However, some residents still choose to continue to live within areas at risk of earthquake disaster. Place attachment may play an important role. Based on place attachment theory and the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), this study explores the possible relationships among place attachment, efficacy beliefs, and evacuation/relocation intention. Furthermore, it examines the mediating role of efficacy beliefs. The study also used the partial least squares method (PLS-SEM) to test samples of 327 rural households in Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake-hit areas. The results show that: (1) Place attachment has a significant effect on response efficacy (RE), but not on self-efficacy (SE); (2) Place dependence (PD) has a negative and significant effect on relocation intention (RI) but has no significant effect on evacuation intention (EI). However, place identity (PI) can indirectly affect EI by influencing RE; (3) Efficacy beliefs have a significant positive effect on EI and RI. These results help us understand the complex relationships among place attachment, efficacy beliefs, and residents’ risk coping behavior, thus providing decision-making references for the formulation and improvement of regional disaster risk management policies.

A Proposal of Mutual-Aid-Type Distributed Evacua-Tion Based on Residents’ Evacuation Intentions in a Hilly and Mountainous Area of Japan

A Proposal of Mutual-Aid-Type Distributed Evacua-Tion Based on Residents’ Evacuation Intentions in a Hilly and Mountainous Area of Japan

Encouraging evacuation: The role of behavioural message inputs in bushfire warnings

In catastrophic bushfires or wildfires, warnings are issued by emergency service organisations to inform communities about the hazard and provide guidance about protective actions. Long-form warnings are complemented by shorter social media warnings that preference content about hazard severity. Warnings that do not include clear behavioural guidance can challenge clarity and community uptake. However, there has been little research that examines and compares existing warnings with those constructed to encourage behavioural intentions. In this study, we follow the Protective Action Decision Model and first identify cues that predict evacuation intentions. Next, we compare existing long-form and social media warnings with those modified to include behavioural advice and instruction to examine their effect on clarity and ease of action and protective action intentions. Findings show how the inclusion of behavioural inputs into social media warnings enhances protective action intentions, offering evidence to specifically support changes to existing practice.

Individual hurricane evacuation intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights for risk communication and emergency management policies

The U.S. 2020 hurricane season was extraordinary because of a record number of named storms coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study draws lessons on how individual hurricane preparedness is influenced by the additional risk stemming from a pandemic, which turns out to be a combination of perceptions of flood and pandemic risks that have opposite effects on preparedness behavior. We conducted a survey in early June 2020 of 600 respondents in flood-prone areas in Florida to obtain insights into households’ risk perceptions and preparedness for the upcoming hurricane season under COVID-19. The results show that concerns over COVID-19 dominated flood risk perceptions and negatively impacted people’s evacuation intentions. Whereas hotel costs were the main obstacle to evacuating during Hurricane Dorian in 2019 in the same geographic study area, the main evacuation obstacle identified in the 2020 hurricane season is COVID-19. Our statistical analyses investigating the factors influencing evacuation intentions show that older individuals are less likely to evacuate under a voluntary order, because they are more concerned about the consequences of becoming infected by COVID-19. We observe similar findings based on a real-time survey we conducted in Florida with another group of respondents under the threat of Hurricane Eta at the end of the hurricane season in November 2020. We discuss the implications of our findings for risk communication and emergency management policies that aim to improve hurricane preparedness when dealing with additional health risks such as a pandemic, a situation that may be exacerbated under the future climate.

Evacuation intention on the Southern Chilean coast: A psychological and spatial study approach

Evacuation from tsunami hazards is a complex problem that requires a transdisciplinary approach, i.e., several topics must be interrelated (including the perspective of the population) to better understand the evacuation process. One of these involves the psychological response of people to the configuration and location of evacuation sites. This paper contributes to exploring the evacuation phenomenon by using social and spatial sciences, in order to test how psychological and spatial indicators influence intention to evacuate to designated sites in Puerto Saavedra, Chile. The methodology involved the assessment of photographs representing different tsunami evacuation scenarios for Puerto Saavedra: the current scenario, with evacuation sites in built areas and in natural environments without emergency facilities; and the hypothetical scenario, in the same sites but with emergency facilities in the natural sites. Photographs were evaluated using three psychological indicators and a Likert scale in a questionnaire. A multiple regression analysis was then performed using ten spatial indicators to explore the most significant spatial variables that explain perception in each scenario. Finally, a multi-criteria evaluation technique was used to model optimal evacuation site locations by integrating data from the questionnaire and the multiple regression analysis. Results show that perceived safety, place attachment and restorativeness vary between scenarios. Natural evacuation sites with facilities from the hypothetical scenario, located at higher elevations and far from the coastline, evacuation routes and emergency infrastructure received higher evaluation values for the psychological indicators. The discussion delves into the challenge of using these outcomes for resilient planning in Puerto Saavedra, and for improving evacuation research with knowledge about perception and real evacuation behavior of different community groups, as well as through studies considering the amount, location and qualities of evacuation routes and sites. This will deepen our understanding of evacuation processes and models in different contexts.

Tsunami awareness and preparedness in Aotearoa New Zealand: The evolution of community understanding

After catastrophic events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami there is a clear need for vulnerable countries like Aotearoa New Zealand to get prepared for tsunami. In the last ten years, the New Zealand government initiated major efforts to raise awareness of tsunami risk among coastal residents. This study explores tsunami awareness, preparedness, and evacuation intentions among residents of the East Coast of the North Island in a 2015 survey. The ten chosen locations also participated in a tsunami survey in 2003, with results demonstrating that tsunami awareness rose in the twelve years between the surveys. The 2015 survey also included questions on preparedness and intended action. Even though coastal residents know they live in a tsunami prone area, preparedness is relatively low and high expectations of a formal warning remain, even for a local source tsunami scenario. Furthermore, survey respondents had unrealistic ideas of evacuation procedures. When asked about their evacuation intentions, respondents intended to undertake a number of different actions before evacuating their homes, which could cause significant delays in the evacuation process. Most respondents were also reluctant to evacuate on foot and prefer using their vehicles instead, which could create dangerous traffic congestion. These surveyed intentions are consistent with a study of actual evacuation behaviours in the subsequent 2016 Kaikōura earthquake and tsunami, providing validation for the survey indicators. This paper identifies the procedures least understood by the public and offers some solutions to improve tsunami preparedness.