Individual hurricane evacuation intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights for risk communication and emergency management policies

W J Wouter Botzen,Peter J Robinson,Jantsje M Mol,Juan Zhang,Jeffrey Czajkowski

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-05064-2

Abstract

The U.S. 2020 hurricane season was extraordinary because of a record number of named storms coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study draws lessons on how individual hurricane preparedness is influenced by the additional risk stemming from a pandemic, which turns out to be a combination of perceptions of flood and pandemic risks that have opposite effects on preparedness behavior. We conducted a survey in early June 2020 of 600 respondents in flood-prone areas in Florida to obtain insights into households’ risk perceptions and preparedness for the upcoming hurricane season under COVID-19. The results show that concerns over COVID-19 dominated flood risk perceptions and negatively impacted people’s evacuation intentions. Whereas hotel costs were the main obstacle to evacuating during Hurricane Dorian in 2019 in the same geographic study area, the main evacuation obstacle identified in the 2020 hurricane season is COVID-19. Our statistical analyses investigating the factors influencing evacuation intentions show that older individuals are less likely to evacuate under a voluntary order, because they are more concerned about the consequences of becoming infected by COVID-19. We observe similar findings based on a real-time survey we conducted in Florida with another group of respondents under the threat of Hurricane Eta at the end of the hurricane season in November 2020. We discuss the implications of our findings for risk communication and emergency management policies that aim to improve hurricane preparedness when dealing with additional health risks such as a pandemic, a situation that may be exacerbated under the future climate.

Highlights

It has been projected that climate change may increase the risks of flooding due to sealevel rise and a possible increase in the severity of hurricanes (IPCC 2014)
Based on the survey that we conducted in early June 2020 of 600 respondents residing within coastal regions of Florida, our results show that when it comes to the factors that influence evacuation intentions, flood risk perceptions are overshadowed by perceived risks related to COVID-19
The results of our surveys of coastal residents in Florida conducted at the start and the end of the 2020 hurricane season show that hurricane preparedness is affected by the pandemic

Summary

Introduction

It has been projected that climate change may increase the risks of flooding due to sealevel rise and a possible increase in the severity of hurricanes (IPCC 2014). We study whether concerns about the consequences of becoming infected by COVID-19 are an additional barrier to evacuation for older people, who are more likely to experience adverse health impacts from hurricanes (Jenkins et al 2007). This focus is relevant since Collins et al (2021) found that older people were more likely to believe that the threat of COVID-19 in shelters is more dangerous than the threat of a hurricane. Our policy implications link to hurricane preparedness guidance with COVID-19 considerations that have been issued by various organizations and federal agencies, such as the American Red Cross (2020) and FEMA (2020), and state and local governments (NAIC/CIPR Research Library 2020)

Data collected with surveys of coastal residents in Florida

Results

Evacuation intentions at the start of the 2020 hurricane season

Evacuation intentions during Hurricane Eta

Policy implications and conclusion