EU Enlargement Research Articles

The evolution of EU accession requirements for North Macedonia

Since Republic of North Macedonia has been a candidate country for European Union membership for almost two decades, the goal of this article is to shed a light on the conditions and requirements that were set before Macedonia and their evolution for this time period. For that purpose the article, annual reports of the European Commission on Macedonia’s progress were reviewed. Further on, analysis of the development of Macedonia’s macroeconomic indicators was carried out which was followed by a comparative analysis of the state of the economic development of the Central and Eastern European countries - member states of the European Union, at the moment of their accession. It was established that the EU enlargement process have undergone significant changes since its foundation. Over time, the changed political environment within the EU has led to a significant strengthening and tightening of the rules and criteria. The inefficiency of the latest accessions provoked the EU once again to change the accession negotiation process and introduce new accession process that is significantly more political than economic. In Macedonia’s case, it was political and not economic requirements that led to the country becoming stuck in its EU accession process. The economic results achieved by Macedonia during the researched period, even though lower than the average for the union, were still higher that the results shown by some Central and Eastern European counties at the time when they became members of the EU. Therefore, is no doubt, that Macedonia’s path to the EU was conditioned by political obstacles, the same situation continues today. But the major question that still stand unanswered is weather this kind increased politicization of the process is contradictory to the merit-based system the EU prides itself on.

THE EUROPEAN UNION’S ENLARGEMENT POLICY CHANGES IN THE LAST DECADE – A SUCCESSFUL INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE OR DYSFUNCTIONAL TRANSFORMATION?

Since 2004, the European Union’s (EU) transformation and integration potential has been evident and limited. An unusual pattern of perceived threats and challenges precluded the EU’s enlargement. One country from the Western Balkans’ (WB) fold was found suitable over the last ten years to join the EU. The rest of the WB are still queuing in front of the gates of the EU family. The purpose of this paper is to assess how recent changes in the international arena, including suffering on Ukraine’s soil and providing candidate status for Ukraine at the same time, affected the EU “red lines” in the enlargement process, together with the lessons learned from the considerable enlargement in 2004. Does the EU enlargement policy as primarily part of the EU foreign policy still have the effect of a “screwdriver,” or has it eventually become a “hammer” of hard power and force by hitting suddenly foreign policy problems that look like nails (Kagan, 2003), as it seems in Ukraine’s example? Did the Lisbon Treaty bring profound transformation to enlargement policy, and is it still one of the EU’s successful stories? This article aims to answer these questions. The assessment method is based on the International practice theory approach and Christian Bueger’s and Frank Gadinger’s definition and determinants of practice known as the Commitments of International Practice Theory (relying on elements of practice defined by Emanuel Adler and Vincent Pouliot). This approach judges whether or not the EU is a global actor that fulfills all inquiries of creating international practice from the enlargement policy. Based on the results, it is confirmed that the EU is a worldwide actor surviving in times of global transformations and that the enlargement policy is a valuable international practice. However, changes in the conditionality policy in the EU accession process could lead to several scenarios, and one of them is the loss of interest in some of the candidate countries, which could cause perceiving the enlargement policy as a dysfunctional transformation in the future.

THE EU - BALKANS ENLARGEMENT PROCESS DEADLOCK: THE ROLE OF PERCEPTIONS, STABILITOCRACY, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The EU enlargement process has its dynamics throughout the years that still keep some of Balkan countries outside of its borders. Starting point for this analysis is perception matters. Hence, it aims to better understand the critical events from the history of interactions between EU and western part of Balkans that shaped the mutual perception that keep Balkan countries located in western part of the region away from the EU. 
 
 The article will analyze both sides, the EU, and the countries of western part of Balkans. First, it argues that the policy of the EU enlargement with western Balkan has deep roots in history. Hence, we will identify manifests that shaped EU’s perceptions towards that region of Balkans. It will identify building blocks for enlargement resistance. Second, will scrutinize the unwillingness of the Balkan political elites to comply with accession criteria. Further, it will examine the internal regional manifests that contribute to the EU’s perception and undermine development and prosperity. Many regional politicians have mastered to talk the EU talk without delivering any genuine results. It will identify building blocks of stabilitocracy. 
 
 At the end, it will give recommendations that are implied from the stalled process. Since EU membership is first responsibility than a privilege, priority should be given to what western Balkan countries can do for themselves. Only after they can attract the EU interests to open enlargement again.

Is East-West Life Expectancy Gap Narrowing in the Enlarged European Union?

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990 and EU enlargement in 2004 are two major political events in the recent history of the Central and Eastern European region. By systematically comparing the changes and differences in life expectancy at birth between the seven new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe and more advanced countries of the EU-15, this article attempts to identify the vanguards and laggards in the health convergence process before and after the 2004 EU enlargement. The results of decomposition analysis highlight the changing patterns of age- and cause-specific contributions to the differences in life expectancy. Finally, we focus on the variations in the progress in reducing the burden of cardiovascular diseases and external causes of death, which were known to be responsible for the long-term mortality crisis during the period of communist rule. Our findings suggest that the collapse of the communist regimes led to immediate positive changes in the Central European countries. At the same time, health disadvantages persisted and even worsened in the Baltic countries. Later on, joining the EU in 2004 was not accompanied by immediate systematic convergence of life expectancy. However, very rapid progress in the initially worst performing Baltic countries after 2007 and especially during the 2010s, may suggest a delayed positive impact of EU enlargement leading to decreasing longevity disadvantage. The convergence process after 2004 was generally slower in the initially better-performing four Central European countries. Despite these country-specific variations, Czechia, Poland, and, especially, Estonia remain clear health vanguards in the region. Further progress requires much more systematic efforts to combat cardiovascular diseases and the persisting burden of excess male mortality at adult working ages.
 * This article belongs to a special issue on “Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries”.

War in Ukraine and Russian Goals in the Western Balkans

Russia has always had a keen interest in the Western Balkans. It was historically realised in the context of geopolitical continuities of the expansion of its territory and influence. Russia has tried to gain influence in this region for political, economic, identity and strategic reasons. However, after the start of military aggression against Ukraine in 2014, Russia opted for a confrontation in the Western Balkans where it opposes the EU and NATO expansion policies and influence of the West in this region. Key Russian leverage for spreading its influence in the region is the Serbian geopolitical design of military neutrality and the convergence of strategic interests of the two countries. Russia wants to exert a strong influence on the Western Balkans, and thus on the security of the EU. On the other hand, Serbia wants to position itself as the main actor of power in the region with simultaneous support from both Russia and the West.

TWITTER COMMUNICATION OF FRENCH POLITICIANS AS A REACTION TO RUSSIAN FULL-SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE (BASED ON THE ACCOUNTS OF VALÉRIE PÉCRESSE, ÉRIC ZEMMOUR AND MARINE LE PEN)

Nowadays the civilized world is in the process of instant developing, scientific progress and active implementation of modern technologies. New media as a part of modern technologies can be a tool for preventing wars or media coverage of them. Starting February 24, 2022, social networks were flooded with information about Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine coming from Ukrainian and foreign political actors who used social media to communicate with their target audience. In this article Twitter has been explored as a means of political communication, Twitter accounts of French politicians (Valérie Pécresse, Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen) and their reaction to the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine over a period of January-April 2022 has been analyzed. Due to the versatility of the topic our research has been conducted using quantitative content, qualitative content, and thematic analysis, as well as elements of critical discourse analysis. The article concludes that despite belonging to right wing political parties, French politicians instrumentalise the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine differently. Center-right Valérie Pécresse supports Ukraine, approves sanctions against Russia, calls for help and decisive action from the EU and NATO, does not approve of EU expansion, referring to Ukraine's accession to the EU, and the end of cooperation of French industries with Russia. Whereas far-right Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen demonstrate an ambiguous attitude: they respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, call for humanitarian aid and condemn the Russian invasion, but at the same time they demonstrate a pro-Russian position, continue Russian narratives about the responsibility of the USA and NATO, use Russian transliteration of Ukrainian cities and territories, oppose sanctions, and call for peace, avoiding the direct nomination of war.

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN THE NEW GEO-POLITICAL CONTEXT

The opportunity of this research topic lies in the current extremely challenging geopolitical context that has led to the outbreak of multiple crises: energy, economic, social, financial, food, etc. The European Union has thus positioned itself in the face of these phenomena by creating several instruments to manage crises and increase resilience: civil protection mechanism, integrated mechanism for political response to crises, cross-border cooperation and solidarity mechanisms, food security crisis plans, resilience measures against physical and digital risks.The paper aims to analyse the necessity of changing the regional approach across the EU under the impact of the pandemic. Specific regional socio-economic indicators for EU NUTS2 regions are analysed during 2010–2021. The main objective of this research is to quantify the regional socioeconomic and to realise comparative analysis related to three moments in time: the latest EU enlargement, the economic crisis and the pandemic. The novelty of the study was the building of a new dynamic multi-criteria model assessing the strategic perspective, which was built to offer pertinent solutions for the regional decision makers in order to ensure cohesion and sustainable development on short and medium term.

Effects of absolute levels of neighbourhood ethnic diversity vs. changes in neighbourhood diversity on prejudice: Moderation by individual differences in personality

This paper examines drivers of prejudicial attitudes among adults in the UK, focusing on the interaction between ethnic out-group size and personality traits. Leveraging data from the National Child Development Study (NCDS), we use two survey waves carried out in 2000 and 2008, just before and after the EU enlargement policy that drove a wave of immigration in the UK. We test the extent to which personality traits moderate the relationship between both absolute levels and changes in ethnic diversity at the local level, respectively, and prejudice. Key findings suggest that personality traits, in particular one's agreeableness, are important for conditioning how the proportion of non-white British in one's neighbourhood affects out-group attitudes. We observe a tendency towards polarisation in prejudicial attitudes between low-/high-agreeableness residents as their neighbourhoods become more diverse. These findings have important implications for theorising how contextual and individual characteristics jointly affect intergroup relations.

Regional Transformation as Reterritorialisation: Examining the Distorted Image of EU-ropeanisation

The European Union’s (EU) mission to promote its idea of European-ness across the continent led to its eastern enlargements and later the Eastern Partnership of the European Neighbourhood Policy. Along the way, this mission encountered competing norms and regional integration efforts shaped by sociocultural and historical ties connecting state, society and territory. These ties inform the barriers to Europeanisation and the backsliding from EU-managed policy reforms. They can illuminate where the EU’s self-image and constructed European identity do not reflect perspectives abroad or those of EU member countries. Such inconsistencies in the EU-constructed identity that shaped related policy mechanisms prevented sustainable regional transformation and integration. Further policy integration and future EU enlargement remain strong possibilities, as does the risk of basing the next generation of policy mechanisms on a distorted image of the EU and its capacity to transform. In this article, I apply a novel critical theory perspective on the entwined processes of de- and reterritorialisation to this context, and argue that this perspective clarifies and informs the EU’s aim to transform and unite Europe.

The Effect of the 2004 EU Enlargement on the Development and Similarity of the Insurance Sectors in the EU

The enlargement of the European Union to new countries in 2004 introduced mechanisms to support the development of various social and economic areas, while also aiming to level the differences between the member states. The primary purpose of this study is to analyse the development and similarities of the insurance markets in the old and new member states of the EU after the enlargement in 2004. We examine the insurance sector of both groups of countries, i.e., those that were members before 2004 and those that joined in 2004, using Hellwig’s development measure, which takes into account several characteristics. Additionally, we analyse the similarity of these countries using three statistical methods of unsupervised classification: Ward’s method, the k-means method, and the Partitioning Among Medoids. Our results indicate that there was a significant variation in the insurance characteristics of these compared groups of EU members after 2004. In general, the insurance markets of the old and new EU countries developed differently. Since the enlargement in 2004, the insurance markets of the old and new EU countries have not yet aligned.

Down (my) Memory Lane: Has Economic Analysis Impacted CAP Reforms?

SummaryThis article elaborates the role of economic analysis in influencing the reform path of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) between 1992 and 2022 on the basis of publicly available information from a personal career experience in the European Commission. Analyses about the trade distorting impact of the pre‐1992 CAP were dominant in influencing the internal Commission debate before the Uruguay Agreement on Agriculture, and were mostly external from academia and international organisations. Developments leading to the Fischler reform in 2003 led to the broadening of analytical scope to cover the impact of food safety issues on market developments, non‐tariff barriers to trade, or alternative scenarios about an enlarged EU based on the increasing use of internal and external models. Evaluations and Impact Assessments played a major role in assessing options for CAP reforms after 2007, with the increasing role of NGOs and think tanks gradually shifting the analytical and policy focus in identifying CAP weaknesses in its environmental delivery. The new institutional reality of co‐decision complicated the link between analysis and policy decision making. However, though economic analysis is clearly not sufficient, it is still necessary and essential to jointly address the twin challenges of food security and climate change.

EU ENLARGEMENT POLICY IN 2022: KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UNION’S TRANSFORMATION POWER CONCEPT

The article examines the key conclusions and recommendations to candidate countries and potential candidates for accession, set out by the European Commission in the annual Communication on the EU enlargement policy in 2022. For better understanding of the essence of the Commission’s Communication, this article the author analyses the realities faced by the EU with the beginning of the Russian Federation’s full-scale war against Ukraine. According to scholars and experts, the war changed Europe more profoundly than any event since the end of the Cold War. It is found that the war clearly emphasized the attractiveness of EU membership and strengthened its transformative power, which was formed thanks to the values, diversity of the societies of the Member States, fundamental freedoms and way of life of the Union. In this context, one can agree with the statement of scholars that the real challenges that the EU cannot avoid if it wants to become more authoritative and strategically autonomous are the strengthening, not the weakening of the European level (institutional and legal systems, common EU policies) under a strict democratic control. The analysis of the conclusions and recommendations in the Commission’s Communication allowed us to conclude that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the policy of EU enlargement was returned to the forefront of the EU’s agenda. Evidence of this was, firstly, granting the status of a candidate for accession to Ukraine and Moldova and a potential candidate – to Georgia, and, secondly, a joint search by the EU and its Member States for ways to activate and speed up the process of European integration of the countries of the Western Balkans region. In addition, it should be noted that the cross-cutting themes of the Commission’s conclusions and recommendations are EU security and energy policy, key areas of the Green Course, in particular decarbonization of the economy, as well as the issue of recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. A separate emphasis in the Commission’s Communication is placed on the reforms continued by the countries of the Western Balkans, which are necessary to fulfill the accession criteria.

The Influence of European Identity on Integration Efforts

The EU's recurrent crises underline its complex and debated nature. Truly grasping its intricacies is key to understanding the tie between European identity and integration. Central to the discourse are questions on whether a shared European identity influences member selection or if the emphasis is on upholding democratic values. Academic discussions have often overlooked a holistic examination of integration processes, treating EU expansions as standalone events without delving deep into the relationship between integration and European identity. This paper posits that the absence of a unified European identity, and subsequently, citizens' disassociation from Europe and its political structures, steers the course of integration, potentially causing stagnation or progression. It seeks to unravel: the nature of EU expansion, the current meaning of European identity versus EU identity, and the influence of identity (or its absence) on integration. Concludingly, it suggests that the EU identity's role in integration is a balance between constructivism and rationalism. Support for the EU seems rooted in citizens' perceived overarching benefits, encompassing peace, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
 
 Received: 05 May 2023 / Accepted: 21 June 2023 / Published: 23 July 2023

European integration as a stage of systemic economic transformation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe

Eastern enlargement is still one of the most ambitious EU projects. Transformation processes in the CEE countries took place at different speeds and depths, because of which the CEE countries were divided into leading states and second-tier states. Unevenness is characteristic of a market economy and is a development stimulus. Possessing specific features, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have a significant impact on the consequences of EU enlargement. The study of the specifics of the development of these countries in the process of European integration is of particular importance for other countries in the process of transformation, including the Republic of Moldova.

Challenges of Rule of Law Conditionality in EU Accession

EU enlargement process towards the Western Balkan countries has been in place since the 2003 Thessaloniki summit. However, the expected democratic transformation and fostering of the rule of law values have not become a reality, while rule of law conditionality has been criticized as ineffective in achieving its goals. In parallel, the EU has been struggling with rule of law backsliding internally, and, in order to tackle this issue, has developed a multitude of instruments that have so far had limited effects on internal rule of law promotion. The paper supports the idea that there is a need for approximation of the rule of law standards in the EU’s internal and accession policies. After providing a bird’s-eye-view of the position of the rule of law in EU accession negotiations with WB countries, the authors go on to elaborate on the four major causes contributing to the EU’s lack of effectiveness and coherence in the WB accession process. In doing so, the authors provide recommendations on how to improve the convergence between internal and accession rule of law policies and foster a common understanding of the rule of law as a core pre-and post-accession value in the EU.

European integration of Ukraine: problems and prospects

The paper is devoted to the process of Ukraine's integration into the European Union, namely, to the analysis of the historical path, comparison of opinions of domestic and foreign experts, and forecasting of possible economic and legal disadvantages and advantages. The authors analyze the economic and legislative provisions of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. The authors emphasize that international integration processes are currently having a significant impact on the functioning of not only regional and state systems, and the establishment of a new international order, but also on the internal policies of individual communities and countries and the daily life of each citizen. The authors note that the opinions of domestic and foreign experts on Ukraine's integration into the EU differ, reflecting different perspectives and interests. Domestic experts may focus on potential economic and political benefits, such as increased trade opportunities, access to EU funding, and increased stability. Conversely, foreign experts may take into account factors such as geopolitical considerations, regional security implications, and the impact on EU cohesion and enlargement capacity. By comparing these perspectives, a comprehensive understanding of the benefits and challenges can be achieved. The author concludes that Ukraine's accession to the EU is a complex decision that requires a thorough analysis of all possible consequences and benefits for the country. Ukraine's integration into the European Union is a consequential decision with wide-ranging implications. The historical path, opinions of domestic and foreign experts, and an assessment of economic and legal factors are crucial for understanding the potential consequences. By carefully weighing the pros and cons, considering the interests of the country and its citizens, and seeking expert advice, Ukraine can make an informed decision that maximizes the benefits and minimizes the disadvantages of EU integration.

The impact of the EU enlargement on the speed of decision-making

This paper presents a quantitative empirical study of the impact of the EU enlargements in 1995 and 2004 on the speed of the decision-making process (legislative process). The research is based on two methods: interrupted time series analysis and survival analysis (Cox model). The use of these methods increases the validity of the present study. The empirical data consists of the EU secondary law directives and regulations. The methodology and research design allow to distinguish between the impact of enlargement and the impact of changes of the institutional parameters of the decision-making process. The findings demonstrate that the legislative process significantly accelerated at the time of the 2004 enlargement. Most likely this was because 1) the preferences of the new member states were generally within the range of preferences of the old members and a new axis of conflict (Western versus Eastern member states) emerged only in a limited number of EU areas of activity; 2) the Council adopted new Rules of Procedure immediately before the entry of new members, which significantly increased the effectiveness of the Council. As for the 1995 enlargement, due to the low reliability of estimations, it can only be cautiously concluded that it did not have a visible slowing effect on the decision-making process. The conclusion that the 2004 enlargement did not entail a slowdown of the EU legislative process is of fundamental importance for understanding the specifics of the functioning of the EU.

Intra‐EU migration, public transfers and assimilation

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the assimilation of EU migrants via the receipt of public transfers using high‐quality administrative panel data for the Netherlands. Research on this topic has relevant implications for EU expansion policy, migration policy, and perception of migrants in host societies. The data that we employ contain comprehensive information on all public transfers that individuals can receive. Results show that free entry from other EU countries decreases both the share of individuals who receive public transfers and the average amount received. The differences between EU migrants and natives are particularly large during the first years after arrival in the Netherlands, and become indistinguishable from zero after seven years. This indicates a process of gradual assimilation into public transfer receipt. Further exploration using an Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition reveals important composition effects that are due mostly to differences in age and variables related to family structure.

Alexandre Kostov, ed. Contemporary Balkans. The Challenges of the 21st Century

Alexandre Kostov, ed. <i>Contemporary Balkans. The Challenges of the 21st Century</i>

Territorial Disputes in the Post - Yugoslav Space

This analysis of a sample of territorial or border disputes 30 years after the ‎beginning of Yugoslavia’s disintegration is informed by a pluri-angle analytical‎ framework. With territorial disputes, a single reading of the phenomenon ‎by international law with its established principles and standards of peaceful‎ dispute settlement can be insufficient. More often than not, territorial disputes‎ not only relate to territorial sovereignty per se, but also to issues of nation-‎building and statehood, identity narratives, ontological security, and‎(perceived) legitimacy as to whether a border is ‘just’. In the context of EU enlargement, ‎the level of power (a)symmetry between actors also plays a role. ‎Looking at the case studies (i) Croatia v. Slovenia, (ii) Serbia v. Croatia, and (iii)‎Serbia v. Kosovo, this paper demonstrates why States sometimes do not comply ‎with EU conditionality and that the behaviour of State actors is by no means ‎irrational, but can well sustain a dispute and/or pose a threat to dispute settlement‎ by international law.‎