The impact of the EU enlargement on the speed of decision-making

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative empirical study of the impact of the EU enlargements in 1995 and 2004 on the speed of the decision-making process (legislative process). The research is based on two methods: interrupted time series analysis and survival analysis (Cox model). The use of these methods increases the validity of the present study. The empirical data consists of the EU secondary law directives and regulations. The methodology and research design allow to distinguish between the impact of enlargement and the impact of changes of the institutional parameters of the decision-making process. The findings demonstrate that the legislative process significantly accelerated at the time of the 2004 enlargement. Most likely this was because 1) the preferences of the new member states were generally within the range of preferences of the old members and a new axis of conflict (Western versus Eastern member states) emerged only in a limited number of EU areas of activity; 2) the Council adopted new Rules of Procedure immediately before the entry of new members, which significantly increased the effectiveness of the Council. As for the 1995 enlargement, due to the low reliability of estimations, it can only be cautiously concluded that it did not have a visible slowing effect on the decision-making process. The conclusion that the 2004 enlargement did not entail a slowdown of the EU legislative process is of fundamental importance for understanding the specifics of the functioning of the EU.