European Shelf Research Articles

The impact of meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on the Atlantic nutrient supply to the northwest European shelf

Abstract. Projected future shoaling of the wintertime mixed layer in the northeast (NE) Atlantic has been shown to induce a regime shift in the main nutrient supply pathway from the Atlantic to the northwest European shelf (NWES) near the end of the 21st century. While reduced winter convection leads to a substantial decrease in the vertical nutrient supply and biological productivity in the open ocean, vertical mixing processes at the shelf break maintain a connection to the subpycnocline nutrient pool and thus productivity on the shelf. Here, we investigate how meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS), not yet taken into account, impacts the mixed layer shoaling and the regime shift in terms of spatial distribution and temporal variability. To this end, we have downscaled sensitivity experiments by a global Earth system model for various GIS melting rates with a regionally coupled ocean–atmosphere climate system model. The model results indicate that increasing GIS meltwater discharge leads to a general intensification of the regime shift. Atlantic subpycnocline water masses mixed up at the shelf break become richer in nutrients and thus further limit the projected nutrient decline on the shelf. Moreover, the stronger vertical nutrient gradient through the pycnocline results in an enhanced interannual variability of on-shelf nutrient fluxes which, however, do not significantly increase variations in nutrient concentrations and primary production on the shelf. Due to the impact of the GIS meltwater discharge on the NE Atlantic mixed layer depth, the regime shift becomes initiated earlier in the century. The effect on the onset timing, though, is found to be strongly damped by the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A GIS melting rate that is even 10 times higher than expected for emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 would not lead to an onset of the regime shift until the 2070s.

A meta-analysis of microcosm experiments shows that dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production in polar waters is insensitive to ocean acidification

Abstract. Emissions of dimethylsulfide (DMS) from the polar oceans play a key role in atmospheric processes and climate. Therefore, it is important to increase our understanding of how DMS production in these regions may respond to climate change. The polar oceans are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). However, our understanding of the polar DMS response is limited to two studies conducted in Arctic waters, where in both cases DMS concentrations decreased with increasing acidity. Here, we report on our findings from seven summertime shipboard microcosm experiments undertaken in a variety of locations in the Arctic Ocean and Southern Ocean. These experiments reveal no significant effects of short-term OA on the net production of DMS by planktonic communities. This is in contrast to similar experiments from temperate north-western European shelf waters where surface ocean communities responded to OA with significant increases in dissolved DMS concentrations. A meta-analysis of the findings from both temperate and polar waters (n=18 experiments) reveals clear regional differences in the DMS response to OA. Based on our findings, we hypothesize that the differences in DMS response between temperate and polar waters reflect the natural variability in carbonate chemistry to which the respective communities of each region may already be adapted. If so, future temperate oceans could be more sensitive to OA, resulting in an increase in DMS emissions to the atmosphere, whilst perhaps surprisingly DMS emissions from the polar oceans may remain relatively unchanged. By demonstrating that DMS emissions from geographically distinct regions may vary in their response to OA, our results may facilitate a better understanding of Earth's future climate. Our study suggests that the way in which processes that generate DMS respond to OA may be regionally distinct, and this should be taken into account in predicting future DMS emissions and their influence on Earth's climate.

Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling

Changes in ocean properties and circulation lead to a spatially non-uniform pattern of ocean dynamic sea-level change (DSLC). The projections of ocean dynamic sea level presented in the IPCC AR5 were constructed with global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Since CMIP5 GCMs have a relatively coarse resolution and exclude tides and surges it is unclear whether they are suitable for providing DSLC projections in shallow coastal regions such as the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES). One approach to addressing these shortcomings is dynamical downscaling – i.e. using a high-resolution regional model forced with output from GCMs. Here we use the regional shelf seas model AMM7 to show that, depending on the driving CMIP5 GCM, dynamical downscaling can have a large impact on DSLC simulations in the NWES region. For a business-as-usual greenhouse gas concentration scenario, we find that downscaled simulations of twenty-first century DSLC can be up to 15.5 cm smaller than DSLC in the GCM simulations along the North Sea coastline owing to unresolved processes in the GCM. Furthermore, dynamical downscaling affects the simulated time of emergence of sea-level change (SLC) above sea-level variability, and can result in differences in the projected change of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea level of over 0.3 mm/yr. We find that the difference between GCM and downscaled results is of similar magnitude to the uncertainty of CMIP5 ensembles used for previous DSLC projections. Our results support a role for dynamical downscaling in future regional sea-level projections to aid coastal decision makers.

Winter weather controls net influx of atmospheric CO2 on the north-west European shelf

Shelf seas play an important role in the global carbon cycle, absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and exporting carbon (C) to the open ocean and sediments. The magnitude of these processes is poorly constrained, because observations are typically interpolated over multiple years. Here, we used 298500 observations of CO2 fugacity (fCO2) from a single year (2015), to estimate the net influx of atmospheric CO2 as 26.2 ± 4.7 Tg C yr−1 over the open NW European shelf. CO2 influx from the atmosphere was dominated by influx during winter as a consequence of high winds, despite a smaller, thermally-driven, air-sea fCO2 gradient compared to the larger, biologically-driven summer gradient. In order to understand this climate regulation service, we constructed a carbon-budget supplemented by data from the literature, where the NW European shelf is treated as a box with carbon entering and leaving the box. This budget showed that net C-burial was a small sink of 1.3 ± 3.1 Tg C yr−1, while CO2 efflux from estuaries to the atmosphere, removed the majority of river C-inputs. In contrast, the input from the Baltic Sea likely contributes to net export via the continental shelf pump and advection (34.4 ± 6.0 Tg C yr−1).

Wake field study of tidal turbines under realistic flow conditions

Numerical modelling of the flow interactions between tidal turbines in arrays is a prerequisite to assess the energy production potential and to optimise the layout of tidal stream energy farms. It requires (i) a refined representation of the tide propagation and (ii) a reliable estimate of the flow characteristics around the turbines. The Actuator Disk (AD) theory is recognised as a reliable parameterisation to approach the far wake of fixed horizontal-axis turbines and was therefore implemented to provide recommendations as regards to the design of arrays, especially the optimal spacing between devices. However, analysis of the arrangement of tidal stream turbines are typically restricted to schematic test cases with idealised bathymetry and inflow conditions. The present study aims to investigate the flow interactions between turbines in a stream energy site with spatially- and time-varying tidal conditions. The site of application is the Alderney Race (English Channel), an area with strong potential for the exploitation of tidal energy in European shelf seas. The three-dimensional numerical model Telemac3D is used to capture the flow at both the regional and the array scales. Predictions are first assessed against ADCP measurements acquired around the island of Alderney. A series of simulations, representing turbines with the AD theory, are then performed to investigate the influence of the wake interactions on the energy production of individual devices. In those simulations, the turbines are represented with the AD theory. The zone occupied by the turbines is 20D-long and 15D-wide (D is the turbine diameter). Different layouts (isolated, aligned and staggered turbines) and different longitudinal and lateral spacings are considered to investigate the effect of the turbines’ arrangement and density on the array energy production. The results show that, for a given turbines density within the array, the staggered layout produces more than the aligned layout (+16%). When the turbines are staggered, a minimal lateral spacing of 5D is required to avoid wake overlapping. However, when the turbines are aligned, the lateral spacing has a small influence on the turbines production. It is therefore possible to pack the turbines close to each other in the lateral direction. The simulations also outline that the turbulence develops much faster within the array when the turbines are aligned.

The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system

Abstract. The North-West European Shelf ocean forecasting system has been providing oceanographic products for the European continental shelf seas for more than 15 years. In that time, several different configurations have been implemented, updating the model and the data assimilation components. The latest configuration to be put in operation, an eddy-resolving model at 1.5 km (AMM15), replaces the 7 km model (AMM7) that has been used for 8 years to deliver forecast products to the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service and its precursor projects. This has improved the ability to resolve the mesoscale variability in this area. An overview of this new system and its initial validation is provided in this paper, highlighting the differences with the previous version. Validation of the model with data assimilation is based on the results of 2 years (2016–2017) of trial experiments run with the low- and high-resolution systems in their operational configuration. The 1.5 km system has been validated against observations and the low-resolution system, trying to understand the impact of the high resolution on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Although the number of observations is a limiting factor, especially for the assessment of model variables like currents and salinity, the new system has been proven to be an improvement in resolving fine-scale structures and variability and provides more accurate information on the major physical variables, like temperature, salinity, and horizontal currents. AMM15 improvements are evident from the validation against high-resolution observations, available in some selected areas of the model domain. However, validation at the basin scale and using daily means penalized the high-resolution system and does not reflect its superior performance. This increment in resolution also improves the capabilities to provide marine information closer to the coast even if the coastal processes are not fully resolved by the model.

Advection of Mesozooplankton Into the Northern Svalbard Shelf Region

The northern Svalbard shelf region is part of the Atlantic advective contiguous domain along which nutrients, phyto- and mesozooplankton are advected with Atlantic Water from the Norwegian Sea along the Norwegian shelf bream and into the Arctic Ocean. By applying the SINMOD model we investigated how much mesozooplankton is advected into the northern Svalbard shelf region. We also compare this supply with the local mesozooplankton production. To achieve this, we selected a box north of Svalbard and calculated the in- and outflux of Atlantic Calanus finmarchicus and Arctic C. glacialis. The average biomass inside the box ranged between 0.5 to 3.0 g C m-2 in March and August, respectively. Annually 18.8 g C m-2 of advected (and locally produced) mesozooplankton would be available for predators inside the box before it is advected out again. The advection of mesozooplankton is about 12 times bigger than the average biomass within the box, implying that grazing upon mesozooplankton in the Atlantic advective contiguous domain is greatly advantageous for pelagic predators. It could represent an important food source for fish and whales in the pelagic. It is suggested that the mesozooplankton encountered on the shelf north of Svalbard derives from populations along the North Norwegian shelf break, in some years as far south than the Lofoten/Vesteralen region. This illustrates the extent and significance of the Atlantic advective contiguous domain for the ecosystems of the European shelf of the Arctic Ocean that depend on feed supply and are thus presumably net-heterotrophic.

Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction

Abstract. Atmospheric forcing applied as ocean model boundary conditions can have a critical impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. This paper assesses the sensitivity of an eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) regional ocean model of the north-west European Shelf (NWS) to the choice of atmospheric forcing and atmosphere–ocean coupling. The analysis is focused on a month-long simulation experiment for July 2014 and evaluation of simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in a shallow near-coastal region to the south-west of the UK (Celtic Sea and western English Channel). Observations of the ocean and atmosphere are used to evaluate model results, with a particular focus on the L4 ocean buoy from the Western Channel Observatory as a rare example of co-located data above and below the sea surface. The impacts of differences in the atmospheric forcing are illustrated by comparing results from an ocean model run in forcing mode using operational global-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with an ocean model run forced by a convective-scale regional atmosphere model. The value of dynamically representing feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean state is assessed via the use of these model components within a fully coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere system. Simulated SSTs show considerable sensitivity to atmospheric forcing and to the impact of model coupling in near-coastal areas. A warm ocean bias relative to in situ observations in the simulation forced by global-scale NWP (0.7 K in the model domain) is shown to be reduced (to 0.4 K) via the use of the 1.5 km resolution regional atmospheric forcing. When simulated in coupled mode, this bias is further reduced (by 0.2 K). Results demonstrate much greater variability of both the surface heat budget terms and the near-surface winds in the convective-scale atmosphere model data, as might be expected. Assessment of the surface heat budget and wind forcing over the ocean is challenging due to a scarcity of observations. However, it can be demonstrated that the wind speed over the ocean simulated by the convective-scale atmosphere did not agree as well with the limited number of observations as the global-scale NWP data did. Further partially coupled experiments are discussed to better understand why the degraded wind forcing does not detrimentally impact on SST results.

Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?

Abstract. Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which are independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves, and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean–atmosphere interface is represented through ocean–wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the north-west European Shelf (NWS) region. A series of 2-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) north-west European Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean–wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes–Coriolis forcing, and wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered. Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the ocean–wave coupled system is a viable evolution for future operational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges.

How quick was marine recovery after the end-Triassic mass extinction and what role did anoxia play?

Oxygen restricted conditions were widespread in European shelf seas after the end-Triassic mass extinction event and they are reported to have hindered the recovery of marine benthos. Here we reconstruct the redox history of the Early Jurassic Blue Lias Formation of southwest Britain using pyrite framboid size analysis and compare this with the recovery of bivalves based on field and museum collections. Results suggest widespread dysoxia punctuated by periods of anoxia in the region, with the latter developing frequently in deeper water settings. Despite these harsh conditions, initial benthic recovery occurred rapidly in the British Jurassic, especially in shallowest settings, and shows no relationship with the intensity of dysoxia. A stable diversity was reached by the first recognised ammonite zone after the end-Triassic mass extinction. This contrasts with the deeper-water, more oxygen-poor sections where the diversity increase was still continuing in the earliest Sinemurian Stage, considerably longer than previously reported. Similar recovery rates are seen amongst other groups (brachiopods and ammonites). Oxygen-poor conditions have been suggested to delay recovery after the Permo-Triassic mass extinction, but this is not the case after the end-Triassic crisis. We suggest that this was because the European dysoxia was only a regional phenomenon and there were plenty of well-ventilated regions available to allow an untrammelled bounce back.

Submerged Landscapes of the European Continental Shelf: Quaternary Paleoenvironments

Submerged Landscapes of the European Continental Shelf: Quaternary Paleoenvironments

North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Decadal Sea Level Change During the Altimetry Era

Regional sea-level rise is characterized by decadal acceleration and deceleration periods that typically stem from oceanic climate variability. Here, we investigate decadal sea-level trends during the altimetry era and pin down the associated ocean circulation changes. We find that decadal subpolar gyre cooling (warming), strengthening (weakening), widening (shrinking) since the mid-2000s (early 1990s) resulted in negative (positive) sea level trends of −7.1 mm/yr ± 1.3 mm/yr (3.9 mm/yr ± 1.5 mm/yr). These large-scale changes further coincide with steric sea-level trends, and are driven by decadal-scale ocean circulation variability. Sea level on the European shelf, however, is found to correlate well with along-slope winds (R = 0.78), suggesting it plays a central role in driving the associated low-frequency dynamic sea level variability. Furthermore, when the North Atlantic is in a cooling (warming) period, the winds along the eastern boundary are predominantly from the North (South), which jointly drive a slowdown (rapid increase) in shelf and coastal sea level rise. Understanding the mechanisms that produce these connections may be critical for interpreting future regional sea-level trends.

Fine particle retention and deposition in regions of cyclonic tidal current rotation

Benthic sediments in continental shelf seas control a variety of biogeochemical processes, yet their composition, especially that of fine sediment, remains difficult to predict. Mechanisms for mud or fine sediment deposition and retention are not fully understood. Using sediment data and a hydrodynamic model of the Northwest European shelf seas, a relationship is shown to exist between fine benthic sediment composition and regions of cyclonic tidal current rotation. The reduced thickness of cyclonic tidal benthic boundary layers compared with the anticyclonic case promotes deposition of fine sediment and trapping of resuspended material. Adding the effects of the benthic boundary layer thickness, as influenced by ellipticity or not, sheds some light on the limitations of approaches only focusing on bed shear stress and sediment pathways to predict the location of mud deposits. A tidal boundary layer predictor that includes ellipticity alongside tidal current magnitude and depth was shown to spatially agree with maps of mud deposits.

Shelf sea subsurface chlorophyll maximum thin layers have a distinct phytoplankton community structure

The Western English Channel is a seasonally stratified temperate coastal sea where a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) is typically detectable within the seasonal thermocline. The SCM often develops as a thin layer (< 5 m) that may contain elevated concentrations of phytoplankton (subsurface chlorophyll maximum thin layer; SCMTL). During summer 2013 a study was conducted offshore of Falmouth, UK to assess spatial and short-term temporal variability in SCM thickness in relation to water column structure and physical conditions and to evaluate any associated changes in phytoplankton community structure. SCMTLs were observed in 18 of 52 vertical profiles, typically characterised by higher chlorophyll concentrations than broader SCMs. SCMTLs were generally associated with a ‘stepped’ thermocline, likely representing the presence of one or more shallow mixed layers forming above/within the seasonal thermocline, and related to increased stratification compared to broader SCMs. Pseudo-nitzschia was almost exclusively the dominant diatom taxon in SCMs, yet statistically distinct differences in community structure existed between SCMTLs and broader SCMs. Within the phytoplankton, the distinction was largely due to a greater biomass of Proboscia alata and other rhizosolenid diatoms, and the dinoflagellate Ceratium lineatum in SCMTLs, and a smaller population of the diatom Chaetoceros spp. There was also a distinction amongst heterotrophic dinoflagellates, with enhanced biomass of Gyrodinium spp. in SCMTLs and a reduction in Diplopsalis lenticula. We propose that this observed difference resulted from promotion of phytoplankton better adapted to environmental conditions more specific to SCMTLs compared to broader SCMs. With more intense and prolonged stratification projected for the NW European shelf, there may be increased prevalence of SCMTLs and the associated larger-sized specialised taxa, with implications for increased carbon export. This study adds to a growing body of evidence of the importance of SCMTLs in coastal and shelf seas, and highlights the requirement for improved understanding of physical forcing and the ecology and physiology of key taxa, particularly as predicted changes in stratification could alter the role of SCM phytoplankton in a future influenced by climate change.

Climate‐Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea

AbstractWe demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2–1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) to 0.0–0.6 Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication.

The future regime of Atlantic nutrient supply to the Northwest European Shelf

Abstract Downscaling simulations for emission scenario RCP8.5 with a regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system model indicate a regime shift in the dynamics of Atlantic nutrient supply to the Northwest European Shelf. Reduced winter convection in the Northeast Atlantic leads to a substantial decrease in upper ocean nutrient concentrations. Yet, vertical mixing processes at the shelf break maintain a connection to nutrient-enriched subpycnocline water masses and decouple the nutrient supply to the shelf from upper ocean conditions in the North Atlantic. As a consequence, primary production on the shelf does not weaken as strongly as it was expected from declining nutrient concentrations in the open ocean. Furthermore, nutrient fluxes to the shelf become increasingly variable due to a positive feedback between the winter mixed layer depth near the shelf break and the density of the upper water column, making the productivity on the shelf more sensitive to the major modes of variability in the North Atlantic.

Harmful algal blooms and climate change: exploring future distribution changes

AbstractHarmful algae can cause death in fish, shellfish, marine mammals, and humans, via their toxins or from effects associated with their sheer quantity. There are many species, which cause a variety of problems around north-west Europe, and the frequency and distribution of algal blooms have altered in the recent past. Species distribution modelling was used to understand how harmful algal species may respond in the future to climate change, by considering environmental preferences and how these may shift. Most distribution studies to date use low resolution global model outputs. In this study, high resolution, downscaled shelf seas climate projections for the north-west European shelf were nested within lower resolution global projections, to understand how the distribution of harmful algae may change by the mid to end of century. Projections suggest that the habitat of most species (defined by temperature, salinity, depth, and stratification) will shift north this century, with suitability increasing in the central and northern North Sea. An increase in occurrence here might lead to more frequent detrimental blooms if wind, irradiance and nutrient levels are also suitable. Prioritizing monitoring of species in these susceptible areas could help in establishing early-warning systems for aquaculture and health protection schemes.

Euxinic conditions and high sulfur burial near the European shelf margin (Pieniny Klippen Belt, Slovakia) during the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event

Abstract The Toarcian oceanic anoxic event (T-OAE; 183 Ma) was accompanied by severe biotic and geochemical perturbations that are considered as some of the most severe of the Mesozoic era. Nevertheless, paleoceanographic conditions during the T-OAE in the Tethyan domain remain poorly understood owing to the relatively low number of marine successions from this area investigated so far. In this study, we report new geochemical, palynological and pyrite framboid size data from Zazriva, northwestern Slovakia, a Lower Toarcian marine succession recording organic-rich sedimentation at the margin of the NW-European shelf. The lowermost Serpentinum ammonite Zone records high total organic carbon (TOC) contents (2 to 5 wt%) and very low organic carbon isotope values (from −30 to −32‰) characteristic of the T-OAE negative carbon isotope excursion in coeval sites. The size of the pyrite framboids, the high S contents independent on TOC, low sulfur isotope values (δ34S

Ocean Circulation in the Toarcian (Early Jurassic): A Key Control on Deoxygenation and Carbon Burial on the European Shelf

AbstractThe Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T‐OAE, ∼183 Myr) was a long‐lasting episode of ocean deoxygenation during the Early Jurassic. The event is related to a period of global warming and characterized by major perturbations to the hydrological and carbon cycles with high rates of organic matter burial in shelf seas. Ocean circulation during the Toarcian and its influence on marine biogeochemical cycles are still not fully understood. Here we assess the spatial extent of anoxia in the NW Tethys Ocean during the T‐OAE, the relationship with ocean circulation and the impact on organic carbon burial, using new and existing sedimentary records from the European Epicontinental Shelf in combination with general circulation model results. We demonstrate that bottom waters on the southwestern part of the shelf were mainly oxic during the T‐OAE, while those in the northeastern basins were mostly anoxic or even sulfidic. Results for two ocean‐atmosphere models (Fast Ocean‐Atmosphere Model and Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model) suggest the presence of a strong clockwise gyre over the European Epicontinental Shelf, which brought oxygenated equatorial waters from the Tethys Ocean to the southern shelf. The northward limb of the gyre was significantly weakened due to the rough bathymetry of the northern shelf, making this relative small region highly sensitive to local ocean stratification. These sluggish ocean dynamics promoted bottom water anoxia and enhanced burial of organic carbon in the northeastern basins, which accounted for 3–5% of the total carbon extracted from the ocean‐atmosphere system as recorded by the positive carbon isotope shift.

What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Abstract. Sustainable management and utilisation of the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly to seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: (A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office's GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; (B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5 and the state of the NWS; and (C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We show that the GloSea5 system can be inadequate for simulating the NWS directly (approach A). We explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis (approach B). We find some statistically significant relationships and present a skillful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We find large-scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible (approach C). We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated with the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS and consider the research priorities for their development.