Abstract
AbstractWe demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2–1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) to 0.0–0.6 Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication.
Highlights
The material properties of coastal and shelf seas are largely controlled by atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial forcing and by their circulation (Gröger et al, 2013; Holt et al, 2012)
Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st century
We present downscaling shelf sea model experiments that demonstrate the potential for a substantial reduction in the North Sea circulation arising from changes in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans
Summary
The material properties of coastal and shelf seas (e.g., salinity, nutrients, carbon, and pollutants) are largely controlled by atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial forcing and by their circulation (Gröger et al, 2013; Holt et al, 2012). There have been many national and international programs exploring climate impacts in the North Sea (Quante & Colijn, 2016), arising from the societal requirement to ensure and maintain its Good Environmental Status and its delivery of environmental services, such as fisheries and carbon sequestration (Thomas et al, 2004). To date, these have largely neglected a detailed treatment of the circulation and in particular the far-field oceanic impacts on this. An ecosystem model is used to illustrate some potential environmental implications of such a change in the North Sea (section 3.3)
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