Euro Crisis Research Articles

Dynamic spillover between crude oil, gold, and Chinese stock market sectors –analysis of spillovers during financial crisis data during the last two decades

The present study investigates the presence of asymmetric return spillovers among crude oil futures, gold futures, and ten Chinese stock sector markets. Time-varying asymmetric spillovers between commodities and the 10 sectors are shown by utilizing the spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). Our findings indicate that the industrial and discretionary consumer sectors generate and benefit the most from spillovers. Furthermore, it has been established that the basic materials sector exhibits a net positive impact on spillovers. In contrast, oil futures, gold futures, and other sectors demonstrate a net negative impact as recipients of spillovers. Moreover, the negative return spillovers outweigh the positive return spillovers. Our analysis spans from 2000 to 2023 to include various financial crises. The spillover effects of asymmetry are impacted by various factors, including the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC), the decline in oil prices, and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Including gold and oil in individual equity markets can benefit equity investors. Furthermore, implementing hedging strategies is susceptible to the global financial crisis, economic slowdown, oil price decline, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The oil futures exhibit the greatest hedging effectiveness during the COVID-19 spread. The findings indicate that gold exhibits comparable outcomes solely in the presence of positive spillover effects. At the same time, its performance reaches its peak during the recovery phase in the context of negative spillover effects.

The impact of financial tightening on firm productivity: Maturity matters

We analyse how the combination of firm-level financial fragility and country-level financial constraints affects productivity growth in France, Italy and Spain. We first show that, although high leverage weighs on firm-level productivity in all three countries, more leveraged firms seem to suffer more from financial constraints only in Italy. In a second step, we show that this apparent specificity of Italian firms is related to the relatively short maturity of their debt. These results highlight the importance of liquidity constraints during periods of financial stress such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 or the European sovereign debt and banking crisis of 2011-13.

From Menace to Mundane: Moral Hazard and the Politics of the European Central Bank's Government Bond Purchases

AbstractDuring the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis, the ideational consensus that shaped the foundation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was destabilized by disagreement on unconventional monetary policies (UMPs), specifically government bond purchases. In the ECB's 2021 strategy review, however, UMPs were confirmed as standard elements of the European Central Bank's (ECB) toolbox. What happened? One argument frequently presented to question the legitimacy of UMPs is that they undermine the prior objective of the EMU of avoiding moral hazard. We analyse the politics of UMPs by focusing upon how top officials in four major Eurozone central banks have discursively constructed the relationship between the ECB's purchase of sovereign debt and moral hazard. We find that top central bank officials aligned to a large degree on the non‐necessary causal relationship between government bond purchases and moral hazard, which reinforced its legitimacy and eventual acceptance as ‘conventional’.

Differentiated Integration in the EU Regarding the Migration Crisis: Disputes Between the Member States

The European Union (EU) has been challenged by several crises lately. In addition to Brexit, the Euro crisis, and the migration crisis; global issues such as the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian attack on Ukraine affected the EU. The migration crisis, on the one hand, differs from the above-mentioned crises with one remarkable feature. The member states have no real consensus about forming a common migration policy. Besides, for geographic reasons, some member states put much more burden on immigrants. Agreeing on immigration becomes impossible for the border countries on the migration route and also transit countries. The paper argues that, unlike the other crises of the EU, the migration crisis reinforces EU integration in such a way that disputes between member states prevent the EU from making institutional changes about the issue. The study results assume that the other above-mentioned crises, on the other hand, stimulated institutional change throughout the EU. In light of this information, this study evaluates, using a method of relevant literature review and comparing the arguments of the researchers, how the migration issue became a subject of dispute between member states by evaluating the 2015 crisis.

Drivers and Limits of the Geoeconomic Turn in EU Infrastructure Policy

In recent years, the EU has increasingly applied state-interventionist practices to initiate and implement infrastructure policy projects. This stands in stark contrast to a phase of liberalization of infrastructure networks and services accompanying European integration and fiscal consolidation and infrastructure decay during the euro crisis. This article argues that the new state interventionism is strongly driven by the changing global constellation of a “new triad competition” where the EU is increasingly competing over infrastructures with the US and China. As a consequence, EU infrastructure policy undergoes a geoeconomic turn that aims to control transnational value chains and related political-economic spaces. Drawing on concepts of critical geography and international political economy, the article outlines the core features of this geoeconomic design logic of infrastructures and contrasts it with complementary or competing ones. The article substantiates these arguments by analyzing EU decision-making on two cases of high-tech infrastructure in the fields of communication and energy: the federated data infrastructure Gaia-X and the Hydrogen Strategy. Both cases provide evidence for the geoeconomic turn in EU infrastructure policy. Yet, the analysis also highlights that the turn is at times supported but also hampered by a capitalist logic that is reflected in the positioning of European and non-European businesses, as well as the EU’s reliance on private action. Furthermore, it illustrates that an ecological and a social-integrative design logic to key infrastructures are largely subordinated. The conclusions reflect on the discrepancy between the EU’s geoeconomic agenda and its less far-reaching implementation.

The asymmetric response of sovereign credit default swaps spreads to risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks

This paper investigates the determinants of sovereign credit default swaps spreads in the case of European countries. More specifically, it purposes to yield insight into how sovereign credit default swaps spreads respond to changes in investor sentiment, risk aversion, and monetary policy shocks during different market states. Using monthly data from May 2009 to December 2021 and running the quantile regression model, we show that risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy affect the sovereign credit risk changes, and their effects vary across countries and markets states. More importantly, Risk aversion and monetary policy display the major asymmetric role in explaining CDS premia. However, limited asymmetric explanatory power is shown for investor sentiment. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the recent European debt crisis has significantly shaped the sensitivity of the sovereign credit risk spreads to the studied determinants. The findings of this study are helpful for investors in forecasting sovereign European credit spreads and hedging the countries default risk.

The Impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Grain Prices --Based on the TVP-VAR-SV Model

Grain products are essential for human survival and economies, and their price fluctuations significantly impact global economic stability. Recent frequent uncertain events have made global economic policy uncertainty a major factor in global food price fluctuations. This study choose European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russo-Ukrainian war as three typical type of uncertainty event. And used TVP-VAR-SV model to examine the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the prices of beans, maize, rice, and wheat. The result shows policy uncertainty leads to fluctuating grain prices, with food grains (rice, wheat) and feed grains (beans, maize) reacting differently. And different types of uncertainty events have different effects, with the pandemic having the greatest effect. Finally, the paper suggests strategies for global food security, including improved information communication, policy control, early warning systems, stable economic policies, and supervision of the agricultural futures market.

Contagion and linkages across international currencies

This paper examines dynamic linkages among international currencies in the face of several turmoil episodes including the global financial crisis (GFC), eurozone sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We utilize weekly data from August 2005 till December 2022. Our empirical strategy consists of identification of crisis periods using a Markov-switching VAR, followed by estimation of the dynamic conditional correlations using an ADCC-GARCH model and testing for the impact of the crises using a regression model with robust standard errors. We compare impact of the episodes on the dynamic correlations across the currency pairs. Our findings suggest that correlation between developed economy exchange rates increased significantly during these episodes implying existence of a contagion effect. While significant negative correlation coefficients were observed across all pairs with Japanese Yen during GFC and ESDC, indicating flight to quality. We analyse factors that may be responsible for changes in co-movement of the currencies during the study period and find that financial stress, emergence of the pandemic and geo-political risk have a significant role to play.

The anatomy of austerity in Finnish media: The journalistic point-of-view towards Europe from the North

This article investigates how four Finnish media outlets, Helsingin Sanomat, YLE, Iltalehti and STT, framed the discussions about austerity policies and their impacts on Finland's national identity from 1998 to 2019. Using historical discourse analysis, the article shows the arc of austerity reporting and how Finland's position and role in the Euro crisis changed during the years. The analysis reveals something about the national self-understanding of Finland, as presented in the media in relation to other European countries. The article addresses three research questions. (1) How did the journalistic treatment of austerity change over time and what were the key turning points? (2) What kinds of perspectives and narratives did journalism construct in the coverage of austerity? (3) How was Finland as a nation represented and compared to other nations in the context of the Euro crisis and austerity? The article shows that the journalistic coverage of austerity evolved from a local issue affecting municipal economies to a global issue linked to the Euro crisis, and that Finland's national identity was constructed through a contrastive comparison with other Northern and Southern European countries. The article contributes to the discussion on media coverage of austerity by providing a longitudinal comparative analysis.

SME’s bond issuance and access to bank credit: evidence from Italy

AbstractIn this paper, we rely on the information asymmetries framework and relationship lending theory to study how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)’s access to bank credit improves after the issuance of a Minibond. Minibonds are fixed-income securities issued by SMEs aimed at supporting growth projects and refinancing operations. They were introduced by different European countries only recently, in response to the European sovereign debt crisis, which considerably constrained bank credit for SMEs.Using a representative sample of Italian companies that issued Minibonds in the 2012–2020 period, we find support to our hypotheses. Issuing Minibonds helps SMEs access higher amounts of debt and improves credit conditions in terms of cost of debt and debt maturity, but with some caveats: only Minibonds issued with lower interest rates and longer maturities lead to better access to credit. Moreover, we find that some companies more exposed to information asymmetries (i.e. younger), with better access to transaction lending (depending on their location) and with larger amounts of collateral available (i.e., tangible assets) benefit more from Minibond issuance.

Consumer and business confidence connectedness in the euro area: a tale of two crises

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model. Findings The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis. Originality/value The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research.

Asymmetric effects of macro policies on women’s and men’s incomes. An empirical investigation of the eurozone crisis in a gender perspective

We study how macro policies affected women’s and men’s incomes during the financial crisis in Europe. We consider the monetary stance, proxied by benchmark interest rates, and the fiscal stance, measured by the variation in public expenditures and public revenues, and investigate how they are associated to women’s and men’s labor and capital incomes, using microdata for 27 European countries between 2008 and 2016. We individualize household-level data by considering four scenarios of intra-household sharing of resources. We also explore how and to what extent macro-policies affect the distribution of labour incomes for men and women by applying a conditional quantile regression approach. Results highlight that the ECB’s expansionary policies had a positive effect on both labor and capital incomes for both men and women, while austerity policies had a mixed impact. Reductions in public expenditure had the effect of reducing labor incomes for both men and women, particularly at the median of the wage and labor distributions. In contrast, increases in public revenues benefited capital incomes, for all income quantiles.

Governing public investment in Europe: The politics of off-balance-sheet policymaking, the rise of Eurostat and contrasted regional policies in Belgium

This paper focuses on a neglected yet crucial feature of public investment policies in the European Union (EU): the politics of statistical harmonization and off-balance-sheet policymaking. Drawing upon the instrument-centred approach and the sociology of quantification and accounting, it refines the concept of ‘fiscal ecosystem’ by highlighting the controversial and evolving nature of the boundary between on- and off-balance-sheet recording. It is argued that the accounting aggregates giving effect to EU fiscal rules favour marketized and privatized modes of public service delivery, including ‘market-based but state-led’ off-balance-sheet investment tools such as public–private partnerships. However, the effectiveness of this policy has decisively hinged upon the work of harmonizing public finance statistics carried out by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the EU. This contested process has led to acute power struggles between statistical agencies and governments, and a substantial increase of Eurostat’s power in the wake of the Eurozone crisis. The comparison of the two main Belgian regions highlights contrasting responses to this European strategy of governing (sub)national investment policies through fiscal rules and statistical harmonization: while Flanders has consolidated the financialization of its investment policy, Wallonia has so far opposed this trend. This demonstrates that although financialization of public investment is promoted by EU fiscal integration, it is not inevitable; governments do have some leeway to follow an alternative path. As Wallonia also benefited from extraordinary economic and political circumstances, it remains to be seen whether its distinctive investment policy will withstand rising interest rates and tighter fiscal rules.

Buying into new ideas: the ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity

Abstract In 2012, Draghi put an end to rising euro area sovereign bond yield spreads by resolving to do ‘whatever it takes’. The crisis rhetoric and institutional practices of unlimited liquidity have since become commonplace, as countermeasures to recent market turmoil show. This article sets out to explain how and why ‘unlimited liquidity’ ideas moved to the ECB’s center of economic analysis during the euro crisis. Previous work fails to decipher that the ideational shift was highly anomalous when viewed against German ordoliberalism or scholarly support for ‘expansionary austerity’. Addressing this relative neglect in other accounts, we draw on qualitative text analysis and expert interviews to argue that this shift was due to norm entrepreneurs who capitalized on the uncertainty of the crisis. We employ constructivist arguments to identify four scoping conditions that account for the ascendance of ‘unlimited liquidity’: an indicative reference, credibility, institutional positioning and—as an extension to the literature—intellectual sensitivity. Our analysis suggests that the euro crisis changed economic ideas, and fundamentally remodels the constructivist framework for studying monetary policy in crisis times.

Https://armgpublishing.com/journals/sec/volume-8-issue-1/article-5/

In the 21st century, various socio-economic crises have revealed that traditional economic science and (neo)classical thinking are unable to explain all the complexity of current economic problems, therefore the application of more complex and non-trivial economic concepts is gaining relevance. In addition to behavioral and evolutionary economic thinking, models of quantum economics have been developed in recent years, which allow solving economic problems, using mainly quantum thinking and the principles of quantum physics, in particular particle-wave dualism, the principle of uncertainty, the absence of a subject-object distinction, superposition and confusion. The article addresses 3 research questions (RQ). According to RQ1, the paper finds that quantum economics research is dominated by the following topics: quantum economics, quantum finance, quantum decision making, and quantum game theory. According to these four thematic descriptors, the article carries out a systematic modern review of scientific works in the period from 1978 to 2022 (if only 50 works were published in 1978-1999, then in 2000-2022 already 3430), with an emphasis on the most cited (Google Scholar) English-language journal articles. The analysis showed that articles on this topic are published mainly in journals of a non-economic profile, that the peaks of publication activity occur at times of powerful socio-economic upheavals (for example, the dot.com bubble, the substandard/financial crisis, the European debt crisis, the coronavirus pandemic, etc.). In accordance with RQ2, the article defines the key characteristics of the quantum economic model: in contrast to neoclassical economics (based on mechanistic classical physics, is rational and deterministic, with the help of the invisible hand of the market it leads to a stable equilibrium), the quantum approach, on the contrary, considers the economy as more complex, empirically oriented, uncertain, probabilistic, superpositional, as an archetypal example of a quantum social system that has its own versions of duality, measurement, and entanglement. According to RQ 3, the article determines to what extent quantum economics can update (neo)classical economics (integration of new ontological premises into economic thinking, more experimental and practical approach, connection between the concept of entanglement and sustainable development, management of financial risks based on the concept of quantum probability, rethinking the concept of randomness by quantum probability, introduction of quantum money, equilibrium using quantum games, etc.).

Beyond ‘responsibility vs. responsiveness’: reconfigurations of EU economic governance in response to crises

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic led to an important reconfiguration of economic governance in the European Union towards deeper economic integration. This fits uneasily with predictions of an inevitable political ‘lock-in’ stemming from a responsibility–responsiveness dilemma, or an inexorably constraining politicisation. Investigating the evolution in discourses on and policies of economic governance in the EU, the papers in this collection approach the relationship between prevailing notions of responsible and responsive government as socially constructed and critically contingent upon politicisation processes. The special issue explores the reconfiguration of economic governance in the EU through multi-level analysis of politicisation, ranging from citizens’ attitudes to conflicts over central banking mandates, using a variety of methodological toolkits. As the collection shows, the shift towards investment, fiscal sharing, and green transition in the new recovery programme followed the emergence of a form of ‘responsive responsibility’ dating back to the aftermath of the euro crisis and which has led to the incorporation of responsiveness imperatives in prevailing notions of ‘responsible government’.

Corporate sensitivity to sovereign credit distress: the mitigating effects of financial flexibility

This paper investigates the role of financial flexibility in sovereign-corporate rating nexus. Using a panel data of non-financial European firms rated by S&P during 2005–2022, we show that financially flexible firms are more protected from the consequences of sovereign rating downgrades than their financially inflexible counterparts. Financial flexibility becomes particularly valuable for corporates in GIIPS countries, during the European sovereign debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, private firms benefit more from financial flexibility than public firms due to their financing constraints. Our findings have implications for corporate managers, governments, and regulators alike, as financial flexibility can act as a shield against sovereign risks’ shocks.

Ideational robustness of economic ideas in action: the case of European Union economic governance through a decade of crisis

Abstract Is it possible to develop a robust crisis management response in a system where governance is characterized by coercive power and adversarial bargaining rather than the diversity, inclusion, and openness highlighted by extant scholarship as conducive factors for robustness? Using two instances of crisis in the European Union—the Eurozone crisis (2010‒2015) and COVID-19 pandemic (2020‒2022)—the paper argues that how actors reinterpret existing rules and institutions offers an important source of robustness in crisis management. Based on the employment of a disaggregation of robustness into degrees of robustness, as well as the concepts of ideational and institutional power, we show how actors can counter the coercive power of dominant coalitions and open up for rule adaptation through reinterpretations of existing rules that, at least in the short term, can solidify the functioning of existing institutions faced by turbulence. In the context of the Eurozone crisis, ideational and institutional power thus enabled a moderately robust response without treaty reform. In the case of the pandemic, it was possible to convince (particularly German) policymakers of the need to employ new ideas about common debt. This meant less need to employ ideational and institutional power by other actors, leading to significantly more effective crisis management than in the Eurozone crisis, what the paper terms maximal robustness.

Carbon pricing and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the Eurozone: a contribution to the climate policy debate using the EU ETS and Macroeconomic Performance Index

This article contributes to the carbon pricing debate by providing new evidence on the aggregate macroeconomic effect of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in the Eurozone. To this end, a novel macroeconomic performance index is created to capture the overall economic performance of the Eurozone countries. The index is a weighted aggregation of key macroeconomic variables—GDP growth rate, inflation rate, employment rate, exchange rate, and long-term inflation rate—for the 19 member countries of the group. The effect of the EU ETS on this macroeconomic performance index is then empirically examined while controlling for the effects of physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation and regulatory quality. A panel framework covering the period 2005–2022 is set up to achieve this objective and the relationship is examined using panel method of moments quantile regression with fixed effects, as well as fixed and random effects regressions of Driscoll and Kraay. A number of important revelations are made. Firstly, the behavior of the macroeconomic performance index constructed clearly reflects the economic reality of the Eurozone, with downward spikes visible in periods corresponding with the economic crisis of 2007–2009, the Eurozone debt crisis of 2010/2011, the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2016, and periods around the outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Hence, a case is made for the use of the macroeconomic performance index as a superior aggregate measure of the overall economic performance in empirical research. Secondly, a statistically significant negative effect of the EU ETS on aggregate macroeconomic performance in the Eurozone is confirmed. This shows that there are significant economic costs associated with the use of carbon pricing as a means of lowering pollution. Thirdly, the findings further show that the negative impact gradually decreases (in absolute values) from lower to higher quantiles. Overall, higher carbon prices cause greater economic disruption when macroeconomic performance is relatively poor but have less damaging effect when aggregate economic performance is relatively strong. Policy recommendations based on the study findings are also provided.

Embedding past, present and future crises: time and the political construction of the Covid-19 pandemic in the EU

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the construction of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis by EU elites. It addresses the puzzling relationship between the spread of the new virus with a large-scale reconfiguration of economic governance in the EU which was unimaginable a few months earlier. Drawing from a constructivist approach to political economy, we argue that the discursive construal and framing of this crisis was instrumental to embed the emergency of the pandemic with broader levels of conjunctural, historical, and even civilizational temporal references. Providing a frame analysis of public statements by the heads of the European Commission, the European Council, and European Central Bank during 2020, we show how the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 was framed as a catalyst for tackling the EU’s historical crisis of purpose, the socio-economic imbalances left over from the euro crisis, as well as the predicament of the climate crisis.