Dynamic spillover between crude oil, gold, and Chinese stock market sectors –analysis of spillovers during financial crisis data during the last two decades

Abstract

The present study investigates the presence of asymmetric return spillovers among crude oil futures, gold futures, and ten Chinese stock sector markets. Time-varying asymmetric spillovers between commodities and the 10 sectors are shown by utilizing the spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). Our findings indicate that the industrial and discretionary consumer sectors generate and benefit the most from spillovers. Furthermore, it has been established that the basic materials sector exhibits a net positive impact on spillovers. In contrast, oil futures, gold futures, and other sectors demonstrate a net negative impact as recipients of spillovers. Moreover, the negative return spillovers outweigh the positive return spillovers. Our analysis spans from 2000 to 2023 to include various financial crises. The spillover effects of asymmetry are impacted by various factors, including the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC), the decline in oil prices, and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Including gold and oil in individual equity markets can benefit equity investors. Furthermore, implementing hedging strategies is susceptible to the global financial crisis, economic slowdown, oil price decline, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The oil futures exhibit the greatest hedging effectiveness during the COVID-19 spread. The findings indicate that gold exhibits comparable outcomes solely in the presence of positive spillover effects. At the same time, its performance reaches its peak during the recovery phase in the context of negative spillover effects.