European Crisis Research Articles

European Energy Crisis Analysis: The Background of Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

This paper argues that the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly impacts the energy crisis in Europe. The conflict economy will destabilize the trade between Russia and the EU countries that mainly support Ukraine. This new international conflict opens up a new space for analyzing the impact of global conflicts on the economy and trade. In this article, the economic issues raised by the conflict will be from the energy market, trade position, financial market, and GDP, and how the two sides should adjust their domestic economic policies to cope with the crisis. The article shows that ruthless unilateral economic decisions can have a negative impact on the domestic economies of both sides. International conflict is also a significant reforming influence on the global economy.

Introduction: EU external migration policy and EU migration governance: introduction

ABSTRACT While the EU’s external migration policy arguably constitutes the most dynamic strand of EU migration policy, especially since the 2015/2016 asylum crisis in Europe, and while there is also a growing body of research on this dimension, more comprehensive, conceptually informed social science publications analysing this policy area in a more encompassing fashion are scarce. In an attempt to make progress on this front, this special issue focusses on four sets of issues: (1) conceptualising EU external migration policy; (2) identifying the drivers and conditioning factors of EU policy; (3) analysing interdependencies and interactions between different policy areas and instruments; and (4) tracing the influence and reactions of third country actors and non-European host countries of migration. After describing key developments and aspects of EU external migration policies over time and after reviewing the state of the art in research on EU external migration policy, the key contributions of the individual papers are identified and contextualised.

‘Plausible Enough’: The IRO and the Negotiation of Refugee Status After the Second World War

National Socialism, the Second World War, Stalinism, the expansion of the Soviet Union, and other political crises in Europe led to millions of people fleeing or being abducted in the 1930s and 1940s. The ‘European refugee problem’ led to the establishment of several international organizations. With the founding of the International Refugee Organization (IRO) in 1946, the concept of refugees changed. For the first time, those that had previously been inevitably labelled refugees – whether as groups or individuals – now had to apply for this status. I argue that refugee status was not simply granted or denied by the IRO, but rather negotiated between IRO officers and applicants, often via a protracted, multistage process. These negotiations were based on the applicants’ portrayal of their own personal history and not (only) an objective history itself. However, the question is not only whether people told the ‘truth’ or not; rather, the applicants’ individual ‘negotiation skills’ and individual perceptions of the IRO officers also played a decisive role. Whilst most current research looks at the actions and strategies of ethnic, religious, national, or social groups, I expand this perspective with a focus on individual negotiations of being recognized as a refugee or Displaced Person by the IRO.

Financial Analysis and Valuation on Carrefour SA

As one of the largest retailers in the world, Carrefour SA performed outstandingly in FY 2021. In the face of the post-pandemic recovery of economy, in order to provide information and suggestions on investment, the paper analyses the accounting and performance of Carrefour in FY 2021. The accounting of essential factors in retail industry such as revenue, inventory, depreciation and goodwill was reliable and precise comparing to its most competitors. Performance was surprising and showed an increasing trend. Based on previous data and recent news, the paper forecasts the revenue, costs, interest and tax charges and the balance sheet. The continuous demand of the market and the expansion in Brazil market may have positive effects while the high inflation and developing energy crisis in Europe are the opposite. Using discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, the earnings per share (EPS) of Carrefour SA in FY 2022 and FY 2023 are calculated. Both Yahoo and Bloomberg give similar predictions that the EPS are expected to have a positive prospect.

The Rise of Ping-Pong as a Sport in France (1932–1933)

Abstract Following the 1929 stock market crash, the “fashionable” sport of ping-pong in France took advantage of the European crisis and international restructuring to recruit foreign players and promote the image of table tennis as a legitimate sport. During a period in which hygiene and eugenics were promoted through the practice of collective and orderly gymnastics, table tennis was a driving force behind a shift in French physical culture. Modern representations of sport are analyzed through the corporal values conveyed (speed and sweat), which contributed to the adoption of a more energetic lifestyle that was still uncommon in French physical culture. Moreover, the transformation of ping-pong into a sport between 1932 and 1933 was also visible in the display of the standardization of its equipment, the work of the written press, and manufacturers and retailers, even if the latter sometimes used it as a simple promotional technique.

When did the austerity era of European crisis management end? On the failure of National competitiveness boards

ABSTRACT The National Competitiveness Boards were supposed to become a central building block in European crisis management and enable European steering of wage developments. However, they failed and were institutionalized under the name ‘National Productivity Boards’ as largely non-binding advisory bodies. This article examines the policy-making process of the National Competitiveness Boards against the background of the EU’s current social and labor policy initiatives and argues from the perspective of a critical theory of European integration that the failure of the National Competitiveness Boards represented an important breaking point with the austerity policy continuity in the EU.

Dynamics of systemic risk in European gas and oil markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A quantile regression neural network approach

The Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC) has triggered a serious natural gas (hereafter referred to as gas) and oil supply crisis in Europe. We propose a quantile regression neural network model to capture the non-linear evolution of systemic risk in the European gas and oil markets. We find that the RUC significantly increased systemic risk in both the European gas and the oil markets. The systemic risk is higher, and rises much more quickly and falls much more slowly in the gas market than in the oil market. The dynamics of systemic risk are closely linked to major events during the RUC. The US-dollar-to-ruble exchange rate contributes most to this systemic risk, followed by Europe’s gas stocks and gas imports from Russia. In terms of risk exposure, the gas market is more vulnerable than the oil market. We propose an elasticity coefficient of systemic risk to evaluate its sensitivity to stress scenarios. Our study provides important insights into managing the systemic risk in European gas and oil markets after the RUC.

Using Landfill Sites and Marginal Lands for Socio-Economically Sustainable Biomass Production through Cultivation of Non-Food Energy Crops: An Analysis Focused on South Asia and Europe

Food security and energy transition are among the current major global environmental challenges. Although these issues individually are significant in their own right, they are connected to each other in a nexus with different interrelationships and dependencies. In the quest for non-fossil alternatives for energy, cultivation of bioenergy crops has become an important part of the energy policy in many countries. In this regard, the use of fertile agricultural land for growing crops for energy production rather than for food supply affects the global food security. Recent conflicts and the geopolitical crisis in Europe, leading to increased food, fuel, and fertiliser prices, the existing climate crisis, and the crisis caused due to the COVID-19 pandemic, have further reinforced the understanding of this nexus, with certain countries mulling limiting biofuel production from agricultural land and others banning food grain exports to safeguard food supply. The idea of growing non-food energy crops on marginal lands in general and closed landfill sites in particular is hence ever more relevant, to avoid land-use concurrence between food needs and energy needs. Landfilling has been the dominant waste management strategy until recently in European countries and is still the dominant mode of waste management in low-income regions like South Asia. This paper provides a review of the economic as well as environmental benefits of growing Ricinus communis L., Jatropha curcas L., and Populus deltoides as energy crops on closed landfill sites in the South Asian context. While as the cultivation of Miscanthus X Giganteus, Silphium perfoliatum L., and Panicum virgatum (Switchgrass) is reviewed in the European context. The cultivation of non-food energy crops like these on closed landfill sites and marginal lands is presented as a potential component of an integrated food-energy policy, with an increased relevance in the current times. In the current times of multiple crises, this measure is of increasing relevance as a part of the overall strategy to achieve resilience and environmental sustainability.

Saving the Children: Humanitarianism, Internationalism, and Empire by Emily Baughan

<i>Saving the Children: Humanitarianism, Internationalism, and Empire</i> by Emily Baughan

Leadership in European crisis politics: France, Germany, and the difficult quest for regional stabilization and integration

ABSTRACT Over the past decade, the European Union (EU) has faced a number of severe crises threatening its core policy regimes and the future of its polity. Potentially existential crises, such as the Eurozone, migration, and Covid-19 crises, require political leaders who are able and willing to give orientation and provide stability. This article argues that France and Germany, as the Union’s two largest member states, have been key for EU stabilization and (further) integration, especially in times of crisis. Thanks to their ‘embedded bilateralism’, France and Germany have available important resources that other member states and the EU’s supranational institutions are lacking. Yet, the emergence of Franco-German leadership and its impact on EU stabilization and integration depend on the demand for leadership, reflecting the status quo costs across the EU and the supply of leadership as the result of relevant Franco-German capacities. Demand and supply factors explain the varying record of Franco-German leadership and stabilization in the three EU crises under consideration.

Which risks drive European natural gas bubbles? Novel evidence from geopolitics and climate

Ensuring the natural gas market's sound and ordered progress is crucial to Europe's sustainable development. This investigation employs the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approach to explore whether there are multiple bubbles in the European natural gas market. Also, we further investigate the influencing factors that contributed to these boom and bust episodes. The empirical results suggest that the multiple European natural gas bubbles are mostly accompanied by abnormal fluctuations, which is consistent with the asset pricing model. In addition, geopolitical and climate factors could increase the possibility of European natural gas bubbles, where the “cold winter” caused by the La Nina event brings more impetus to these bubbles than the “warm winter” due to the El Nino phenomenon, and Russia's geopolitical conflict with Ukraine is more likely to cause bubbles. Besides, the international oil market and European economic situation also exert positive effects on such explosive behaviours. Against the backdrop of an increasingly serious energy crisis in Europe, the above conclusions provide valuable implications to promote European sustainable development by reducing over-dependence on Russian energy and preventing dramatic surges in natural gas demand.

Sustainability of coal mining. Is Germany a post-mining model for Colombia?

For centuries, coal mining played a crucial role in Germany's socio-economic history. It not only drove its industrialization but also supported its recovery after World War II. Since the middle of the 20th century in Germany, this industry entered a deep crisis mainly due to its high production costs. This led to the final closure of German hard coal mining in 2018. In Colombia, coal mining has also played an important economic role, especially since the 1980s when the large concessions began. In Germany, the closure of this industry has entailed great challenges, which have been addressed through regional structural transformation processes that continue today. Likewise, Germany's plan to phase out coal from its energy matrix has also entailed great challenges that have increased due to the current energy crisis in Europe. In the case of Colombia, global trends to reduce coal consumption will inevitably affect its national finances in the medium term. A comparative analysis of scenarios of these two countries, along with some projections of energy and coal consumption at world level, show that certain German experiences, especially regarding the processes of regional structural change, can be useful in the definition of strategies for the Colombian context.

Extreme dependencies and spillovers between gold and stock markets: evidence from MENA countries

This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia. It contributes to the existing literature by (i) revisiting this question for the principal stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and (ii) using the copula-quantile-on-quantile and conditional value at risk methods to detail the risks facing market participants provided with accurate information about various gold and stock market scenarios (i.e., bear, normal, bull). The results provide strong evidence of quantile dependence between gold and stock returns. Positive correlations are found between MENA gold and stock markets when both are bullish. Conversely, when stock returns are bearish, gold markets show negative correlations with MENA stock markets. The risk spillover from gold to stock markets intensified during the global financial and European crises. Given the risk spillover between gold and stock markets, investors in MENA markets should be careful when considering gold as a safe haven because its effectiveness as a hedge is not the same in all MENA stock markets. Investors and portfolio managers should rebalance their portfolio compositions under various gold and stock market conditions. Overall, such precise insights about the heterogeneous linkages and spillovers between gold and MENA stock returns provide potential input for developing effective hedging strategies and optimal portfolio allocations.

Who is afraid of emergency politics? Public opinion on European crisis management during Covid-19

After a decade of crisis management, the democratic implications of emergency modes of governance in the European Union (EU) are under the spotlight. The prevailing analysis is critical. Scholars point to an emergent, distinctly European trend of transnational crisis exploitation where elite appeals to exceptional pressures serve asymmetric power and influence, overriding democratic norms and potentially fuelling Eurosceptic backlash. However, the literature does not ask whether citizens consider themselves disempowered by the EU’s emergency politics, with its alleged emphasis on urgency and technocratic problem-solving. The relative symmetry and simultaneity of the Covid-19 crisis across Europe offers an opportunity for an empirical examination of public opinion on traits of emergency politics. We juxtapose the implications of emergency politics for public opinion with the transnational cleavages literature and use survey data from 15 member states on EU- and national-level pandemic responses to examine the competing hypotheses. Our findings indicate perceptions of crisis management are largely determined by prior views on EU integration and democracy. More generally, the results suggest that the transnational cleavage remains overall a key driver and delimiter of Euroscepticism in crisis times. Though there is some variance between emergency politics dimensions, we do not detect a widespread perception of disillusionment motivated by EU emergency rule.

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

We assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the Southern European crisis of the early 2010’s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one in Calvo (1988). Key for multiplicity is an output process featuring long periods of either high growth or stagnation that we estimate using data for those countries. We find that expectations-driven debt crises are quantitatively relevant but state dependent, as they only occur during stagnations. Expectations are a major driver explaining default rates and credit spread differences between Spain and Argentina.

The Impact of the Energy Crisis in Europe

The Impact of the Energy Crisis in Europe

Revisiting the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: sectoral evidence from the USA.

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between sectoral renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the US economy for the period 1950-2020 by using the Fourier component augmented unit root, cointegration, and causality analyses for the transportation, industrial, residential, electric power, and commercial sectors. Our results reveal in the long run that renewable energy will Granger cause growth through the new jobs it will create, the restructuring of the economy which is a prerequisite for replacing fossil energy with renewable energy. On the other hand, causal relationships are less stable and methodology and sector specific in the short run. Accordingly, the electric power and industrial sectors experience conservation patterns in terms of renewable energy consumption, while the growth hypothesis is confirmed for the commercial sector. Different implications are generated for each sector, which are now more important than ever given the current energy crisis in Europe and the urgent need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

The financial, health, and social crisis in Europe. Developments and challenges from the Social Work perspective.

We conducted a descriptive documentary review study using a sequential design of the assessable indicators of European social policies developed between 2008 and 2019. The period between the 2008 financial crisis and the current COVID-19 health crisis was studied using Eurostat indicators to compare variables related to social risk and the governmental response offered by the sample countries to provide social protection. We attempted to understand the current crisis by examining the key social factors and potential connections with previous trends in the development of social policies in the European Union. On this basis, we identified effective strategies for managing the crisis. The data suggest that, in general, the European social protection model has not prevented the growth of inequality and social risk, thus calling for new ways and approaches to the design, implementation, and assessment of public policies to ensure their effectiveness. These new strategies involve re-envisioning social work as a key profession and discipline to promote social transformation.

Defence organizations in emergency networks: the early response to COVID-19 in Europe

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyse the crisis network response of European countries and the role played by defence organizations (DOs) during the early response phase of the pandemic, here set to encompass 75 days.Design/methodology/approachPublished materials – reports, news and communications – provided by authorities and DOs were used. Some of the authors actively participated in national pandemic response networks. An exploratory approach and qualitative content analysis were applied. The data were collected in national languages from 13 European countries, and they were coded and analysed using the actors, resources and activities (ARA) framework.FindingsThis study identified three main categories of activity structures in which the DOs interacted with civilian members of response networks, health-related services, logistics services and public support services. These networks among actors were found within formal response systems and emergent networks. The DOs engaged as actors that provided a range of services when civil authorities could not cope with the huge demand for specific services and when resources were scarce in the initial response phase.Originality/valueThis study contributes by filling an important research gap with regard to the civil-military relations associated with the use of DO resources in the civil response to the pandemic crisis in Europe, which is described as an untraditional response. The ARA network approach provides a framework for arranging ARA and extends the wider civil-military network to expand the formal networks of the early crisis response. The study lays knowledge about the co-operation between civilian and military actors in different contexts and provides a broader understanding of the roles that DOs played in the response operations.

Implementasi Kebijakan Angela Merkel Terhadap Gelombang Pengungsi Timur Tengah

This study aims to analyze the implementation of Angela Markel's policy towards the Middle East refugee wave through the CEAS policy and the Open Door Policy that was implemented, in response to the refugee crisis in Europe in 2015. This is a problem because of the many different perceptions of refugees coming from the Middle East and because Germany is the leader of the European Union in enforcing its members to implement these policies. This study uses a qualitative method with a descriptive analysis approach using secondary data. At the national or domestic level, this policy has drawn many protests and criticisms from the public, opposition parties, and Merkel's own party, interest groups and the European Union regarding this policy. Despite receiving many rejections, Merkel remains adamant and continues to implement the policy in Germany, this is because Merkel has a point of view or perception about refugees who must be assisted in seeking protection and security. This study uses the theory of Angela Merkel's Foreign Policy and the Theory of the Copenhagen School in examining the policies issued by Merkel regarding Middle Eastern refugees.