Eurasian Land Research Articles

Морфологический анализ аномалий пространственного распределения весенних запасов снега в горных территориях Евразии в период 2001–2019 гг.

Морфологический анализ аномалий пространственного распределения весенних запасов снега в горных территориях Евразии в период 2001–2019 гг.

One Belt, One Road between Three Seas: China’s soft-power policy towards ‘new’ EU members

China’s soft-power practice in its international activity boils down to four areas: culture, education, diplomacy, and economy. The most important element of China’s soft-power policy seems to be the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Announced in 2013, the BRI is a complex, long-term and large-scale strategic political and economic project by the Chinese government with an infrastructure character. In this way, China is seeking to invest its capital surpluses in resurrecting the ancient Silk Road to create railroad and maritime networks with its most important trading partner – the European Union. In these circumstances, in September 2015, the presidents of Central and Eastern EU member states announced the establishment of the separate Three Seas Initiative (TSI), a political and economic project bringing together 12 EU states, including 11 ‘new’ members and Austria. These entities constitute an informal bloc of states between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black seas, though without a permanent secretariat but with rotating leadership. In addition to the lack of a formal structure, the TSI region, located mainly in the EU’s eastern part, is characterized by a weaker infrastructure network than Western Europe, lower GDP (except Austria), and high dependence on gas supplies from Russia (except Croatia). To overcome these disparities, the TSI has developed a catalogue of 48 investment priorities in three economic areas: energy, transport, and digitalisation. China’s soft-power policy towards the ‘new’ EU members may be decided by the American patronage of the TSI and the fact that one of the flagship projects is the North-South Gas Corridor, which will enable the sale of American LNG in Central Europe, which has been dependent on gas supplies from Russia, China’s partner in the BRI. In the context of the US-China trade war, White House planners recognise Central Europe as both a peripheral and key area for their policy and seek to strengthen the Three Seas project, which may lead to limiting areas of cooperation under the ‘17+1’ format, involving CEE countries and China. On the other hand, the development of better energy, transport and digital connections in the EU’s east clearly intersects with China’s idea of building a New Eurasian Land Bridge under the BRI to connect the most economically developed edges of Eurasia. The new US strategy towards the countries of the CEE seems to boil down to involvement in specific energy-related projects. Instead of blocking or diminishing BRI-related infrastructure projects in China, they seem in fact to complement the Chinese activity in the CEE. Increased investment by American enterprises in the region may allow the administration in Washington to maintain control of Chinese infrastructure investments, and the US involvement may even lead to the participation of American companies in projects originally started by Beijing.

Memory effects of Eurasian land processes cause enhanced cooling in response to sea ice loss

Amplified Arctic warming and its relevance to mid-latitude cooling in winter have been intensively studied. Observational evidence has shown strong connections between decreasing sea ice and cooling over the Siberian/East Asian regions. However, the robustness of such connections remains a matter of discussion because modeling studies have shown divergent and controversial results. Here, we report a set of general circulation model experiments specifically designed to extract memory effects of land processes that can amplify sea ice–climate impacts. The results show that sea ice–induced cooling anomalies over the Eurasian continent are memorized in the snow amount and soil temperature fields, and they reemerge in the following winters to enhance negative Arctic Oscillation-like anomalies. The contribution from this memory effect is similar in magnitude to the direct effect of sea ice loss. The results emphasize the essential role of land processes in understanding and evaluating the Arctic–mid-latitude climate linkage.

The iron Silk Road: how important is it?

ABSTRACT Container transport by railway between Europe and China is a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Trade, economic and geopolitical aspects of the BRI have been widely analysed, but data on real traffic flows are scarce. A variety of data sources are examined to identify the structure and evolution of cargo volumes along the Eurasian Land Bridge in the light not just of the development of new railway freight services between Chinese cities and Europe but also of trade between Japan and South Korea and European countries. The roles of subsidies and new infrastructure investments in shaping past, present and futures trends are also examined.

Are Eastern Baltic Ports the drivers of Eurasian trade?

Abstract Since “Belt and Road initiative” (BRI) has been launched, the major volume of academic studies focus on the consideration of Eurasian land and maritime transport routes. Experts on Chinese foreign policy and geopolitical strategy emphasize possible positive and negative aspects of the initiative for the states involved. The business and political circles from Eastern Baltic Sea region are looking for possible ways to attract cargo to its ports. Yet, the possible transformations of Chinese foreign trade flows in the context of BRI are now under academic consideration. We focus on the evaluation of ports’ possibilities to handle Chinese cargo. The key issues of our study include the choice of cargo transportation routes and opportunities to attract Chinese investment to expand port and logistics infrastructure. The methodology of the research is based on statistical data analysis for the further comparison of transport routes. Our empirical results demonstrate that Eastern Baltic Sea ports can attract little part of Chinese trade flows.

Kuşak ve Yol Projesi Koridorlarının Karşılaştığı Güvenlik Tehditleri

This paper tries to identify security problems exist on the Belt and Road Initiative corridors. Although it is one of the most ambitious economic projects in the 21 st century, Belt and Road Initiative is afflicted by separatist and terrorist activities. The paper selected three cases: Xinjiang, Balochistan, and Myanmar. In Xinjiang, oppressed Uyghur people sporadically rise against Chinese rule, afflicting the security of the New Eurasian Land Bridge and China-Central Asia-West Asia corridors. Balochistan province, which has witnessed several rebellions since Pakistan’s independence threaten China’s 46 billion investment in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims are unwanted hosts of the territories which Belt and Road corridors pass through. In response to these threats, China implements a set of security measures including strengthening its presence in Xinjiang and abandoning its traditional non-interference policy in its interactions with relevant countries to provide stability Belt and Road corridors. In Xinjiang, it establishes a security state; in Balochistan it propels Pakistan to increase the number of troops; for Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar China backs Myanmar army’s atrocities in the global arena.

The Eurasian Land Bridge: linking regional value chains along the New Silk Road

This article argues that the establishment of the China–Europe Land Bridge predated the announcement of China’s One Belt One Road (Belt and Road Initiative) and has been market-driven, as service providers identified and responded to demand for efficient freight services along pre-existing railway lines. Governments’ role was trade facilitating, that is reducing delays and costs at border crossing points, rather than investing in hard infrastructure. Service providers responded by linking European and Asian value chains (for example in automobiles and electronic goods) and reducing costs for traders shipping between China and Europe. In sum, market forces were the catalyst for the rail links between China and Europe that are often analysed in the context of China’s economic rise and Chinese international relations.

One Belt one Road, but several routes: A case study of new emerging trade corridors connecting the Far East to Europe

Under the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, two new emerging trade corridors connecting the Far East to Europe have been built. One is the China-Europe Sea-Land Express Line (CESEL) and the other is the New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB). This paper aims to understand the attitude of relevant stakeholders towards the performance of the Traditional Sea-Land Line (TSLL) alongside the two emerging container routes under the B&R initiative. To achieve this objective, we first of all built a performance evaluation system to understand the relative performance of these trade routes. A questionnaire survey was carried out to reveal the differing views on route performance, and Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was then used to examine and interpret the survey data. Secondly, by dividing the interviewees into two groups, we examined whether the government’s development priorities are at variance with the preferences of industry practitioners. Thirdly, we explored the reasons for the variance by conducting an intensive interview with ten key stakeholders and then explain the findings from the perspective of institutional theories. Finally, we addressed the uncertainty and dynamics of route development under three different scenarios. Several managerial implications are proposed on the basis of our findings.

China’s One Belt and One Road: Implications of ‘New Eurasian Land Bridge’ on Global Power Play in the Region


 
 
 China’s ‘One Belt and One Road Initiative’ (OBOR) transliterated from Chinese ‘Yi Dai Yi Lu’ is the prime focus of international politics. No other development has gained so much importance after Global war on terrorism. This paper will focus on impact of OBOR on regional politics with narrowed down focus on New Eurasian land bridge. This analysis of Eurasian belt will lead to study of counter policies of international players like USA and Russia to counter Chinese influence in the region. This analytical and prognostic study will bring into focus the impact of OBOR on international power play especially on the regional peace in Eurasia. To analyze the importance of OBOR and regional complexity we need to understand the theoretical aspects of connectivity and cooperation. Inter- Regional integration theory proposed in the work of Luk Van Langenhov with major tenants of regional integration is the best description of China’s initiative. Another important corridor will come under discussion given its role as ‘zipper’ in Belt and Road Initiative that is China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The last part of study will bring to attention international response of key players towards OBOR whose strategic and economic interest in this part of world are at stake which makes current global power play much more complex and uncertainty prevails. But in this age of economic interdependence, finding ways for peaceful co-existence is crucial as no one can afford otherwise.
 
 

Economic Cooperation Between Latvia and China on the Background of Belt and Road Initiative with Focus on Cargo Potential

Latvia is a Belt and Road Initiative country and can contribute to its Eurasian Land Bridge. The existing railway infrastructure can be used for establishing the Eurasian Land Bridge Northern Branch via Latvia, but the problem is a lack of cargo for this route. It can be integrated into the existing Eurasian Land Bridge with specialization to connect China and some European countries—the Scandinavian countries. The aim of the study is to assess the potential volume of Latvian cargo for the Eurasian Land Bridge Northern Branch through Latvia. The methods of the study are statistical analyses and the forecasts of experts. Forecast of experts is an innovative method for investigating this topic. The study contributes to the discussion regarding One Belt One Road and Eurasian Land Bridge. The research shows that it is possible to establish regular container block train between Latvia and China for distribution of Chinese goods in the Scandinavian countries and vice versa because cargo potential for this route is growing, the seaport of Riga in Latvia is the shortest route to the seaport in the European Union and previous demonstration trains were successful.

Prerequisites for the Creation of a High-Speed Container Transport System

The new scope of application for vehicles equipped with magnetic suspension is the fright container transportation. In order to realise the transit potential of the country, the increase in mean speed of the container trains is required. Objective. The purpose of the work is to explore the possibilities to develop the highspeed transport system equipped with magnetic suspension for container transportation along Eurasian land bridge. Methods. The following methods and analysis have been used as research instruments: case study, computer modeling, transport geography and technical and economic analysis. Results. The market analysis results of the transit container transportation have shown that the major challenge for Russian transit development is the constrained traffic capacity of the existing transport corridors. The drastic solution of the problem can be the construction of a new high-speed transport system. The following factors determining the conditions for the creation of the new transport system have been identified: the use of the Azov-Black sea basin transportation facilities, provision of the accessibility of the northern areas; the development of technical solutions ensuring the design of the transport system with low cost infrastructure. The combined traction levitation system has been developed based on the extremely simple design of the linear switched reluctance motor. The experimental researches of the full-functional physical model of the transport platform have been performed. The assessment of investment project efficiency has shown that despite large start-up investment in the track infrastructure, the project has positive economic effect. Practical importance. The computer model of the combined traction levitation system based on the linear switched reluctance motor has been designed. The concept of the new transport system construction has been introduced taking into account the characteristics of the supposed operating test sites in poorly developed areas. The high-speed route has been proposed connecting the Azov-Black sea basin with the Pacific coastline and completely passing through the territories of Russia including some northern regions. The transit potential assessment has shown that due to the transit time reduction it is possible to attract the container freights with traffic volume of 1.52 million in twenty-pounds equivalent.

Towards Contested ‘Spheres of Influence’ in the Western Pacific: Rising China, Classical Geopolitics, and Asia-Pacific Stability

ABSTRACTThe evolution of US-Sino great power competition in East Asia has emerged as a key geostrategic issue in international politics. A central question is whether the ‘geography of the peace’ will prevail where, despite their natural predisposition to compete for regional hegemony, the two great powers respect each other’s ‘spheres of influence’. This concept assumes that, as a major continental power, China remains preoccupied with securing its land borders and expanding its influence on the Eurasian land mass. In contrast, this article argues that the Sino-US rivalry likely leads to the emergence of a ‘geography of conflict’ in East Asia because of overlapping zones of strategic interests. Applying a classical geopolitics approach, it shows that the geopolitical models of British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder, US naval strategist Alfred Thayer and Dutch-American geostrategist Nicholas Spykman are useful to explain the current behaviour of China and the United States, and why, as a result, East Asia is becoming more contested.

Jacobins, Bolsheviks, and the Dream of Revolution: October 1917 in the Trajectory of a Brazilian Metalworker of African Descent

Jacobins, Bolsheviks, and the Dream of Revolution: October 1917 in the Trajectory of a Brazilian Metalworker of African Descent

On service network improvement for shipping lines under the one belt one road initiative of China

This paper aims to reconstruct the shipping service network between Asia and Europe by considering the improvement of New Eurasian Land Bridge rail services and Budapest-Piraeus railway. In particular, to reflect the decision making process in reality, a bi-level programming model is established to maximize the total profit of the liner shipping company in the upper level and meanwhile to minimize the total cost of the shippers in the lower level. Computational experiments considering different scenarios are conducted to obtain the new optimal networks under different cases. Several insightful findings are observed, further leading to useful managerial insights.

China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom

:China’s increasingly significant economic and security interests in the Middle East have several impacts. It affects not only its energy security but also its regional posture, relations with regional powers as well as the US, and efforts to pacify its north-western region of Xinjiang. Those interests are considerably enhanced by China’s “One Belt, One Road Initiative” that seeks to patch together a Eurasian land mass through inter-linked infrastructure, investment and expanded trade relations. Protecting its mushrooming interests is forcing China to realign its policies and relationships in the region.

The CPEC and China-Pakistan Relations: A Case Study on Balochistan

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will not only enhance the strategic cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad, but also open up new avenues of economic development for the people of Balochistan. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has declared that Gwadar will be connected with main cities to expose the full potential of Balochistan. According to statistics from the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform, Balochistan is estimated to receive $7.1 billion initial investments through the CPEC, ranking second in its share from the total of $46 billion. The CPEC will connect Pakistan to Central Asia via the Eurasian Land Bridge planned under China’s “Belt and Road” initiative. The Pakistani government plans to hook up the country with Central Asia via Termiz (Uzbekistan), making Balochistan the central point of economic activities in the region. Balochistan, in general, and Gwadar, in particular, will hopefully become the linchpin of the CPEC. Significantly rich in mineral resources, Balochistan can contribute to regional economic integration and, in turn, benefit from this economic opportunity greatly.

Looking at China’s Belt and Road Initiative from the Central Asian Perspective

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a potentially transformational geopolitical development initiative, launched by China, which encompasses 65 countries, accounting for roughly 32 percent of global GDP, 39 percent of global merchandize trade, and 63 percent of the world’s population. The BRI, also referred to as the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR), is a geopolitical initiative put forth by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which goes well beyond building infrastructure along the ancient “silk road.” The initiative seeks to develop a wide network of connectivity and cooperation spanning the entire Eurasian land mass and parts of Africa, including Central Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and North and East Africa. The magnitude of investments anticipated under the BRI is massive. According to the Chinese government, US$890 billion worth of investments have already been disbursed under the BRI umbrella, with an expected total Chinese investment of US$4 trillion over the course of the initiative. Developments suggest that BRI could ultimately evolve beyond a mere Chinese-financed initiative. However, the bulk of BRI-related investments still appear to be conceived, driven, and primarily financed by China and financial institutions controlled by Beijing. This could change, however, as national governments that host BRI projects, multilateral institutions, and private sector gets more actively involved.

Silk Roads and Strings of Pearls: The Strategic Geography of China’s New Pathways in the Indian Ocean

ABSTRACTControl over access to the Indian Ocean is often seen through a highly securitised lens. Strategic actors have long sought to use geographical constraints to maintain the region as a relatively enclosed strategic space. It has only a few narrow maritime entrance points and the littoral is not well connected to the interior of the Eurasian continent. These factors have contributed to the historical domination of the Indian Ocean by a succession of extra-regional maritime powers and the virtual exclusion of Eurasian land powers such as China and Russia. This paper considers how the physical geography of the Indian Ocean has contributed to its control by some powers and the exclusion of others. It then discusses China’s Maritime Silk Route/One Belt One Road initiative, which includes growing interests in Indian Ocean ports and plans to build new overland pathways to connect China with the Indian Ocean. The paper concludes that while China’s growing maritime interests in Indian Ocean are strategically important, it is the new overland routes connecting the Eurasian hinterland with the ocean that have the potential to change the entire geostrategic character of the region.

The Effects of the New Eurasian Land Bridge on International Trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian Countries in the Context of the “One Belt and One Road”

신 유라시안 대륙교(NELB)는 중국 신장에 위치하고 있어, 국제적 물류의 중요한 통로로 퍼포먼스 통로와 운송비를 분석하는 것은 매우 가치 있는 연구이다. 본 연구에서는 중국의 신장과 중앙 아시아 국가들 간 NELB가 양국 국제 무역에 미치는 영향에 대해서 집중적으로 다룰 것이다. 사회 및 운송 조건, 퍼포먼스 통로를 조합한 제안, 운송비 절감 및 경제와 사회 요인들은 중국의 해외 무역을 촉진 시킬 것이 다. 그리고 확장된 심화모델에서는 인구, FDI와 다른 관례적인 요인들을 검토하고, 퍼포먼스 통로와 관련하여 지리적인 거리를 운송비로 대체한다. 퍼포먼스 통로에 관한 실증연구에서는 운송비는 신장과 중앙아시아 국가들 사이의 무역에서 주된 방해요소이지만 중앙아시아 국가들의 경제의 규모, 인구, FDI는 무역의 발전에 도움이 된다. 그리고 중국의 WTO가입은 무역의 규모에 많은 영향을 미치지 않는다. 퍼 포먼스 통로는 신장과 중앙아시아 국가들 간의 무역에 분명한 상관관계가 있으며, 통로의 발전은 신장의 국제무역 규모를 크게 만들 것이 다. “the Belt and Road” 맥락에서, 중국은 국제적인 협력, 자본수출, 퍼포먼스 통로를 이용하여 중앙아시아 국가들에 미치는 영향을 강화 해야한다.While the New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB) places Xinjiang of China at a vantage point and facilitates foreign trade along this route, its corridor performance and transport costs are still worthy of further study. In this article, we will focus on the effects of the NELB on foreign trade between Xinjiang of China and Central Asian countries by constructing a mechanism of action on the basis of economic, social and transport conditions, and suggest that a combination of corridor performance, transport cost reduction and economic and social conditions will promote China’s foreign trade. Then, based on an extended gravity model, we will examine population, FDI and other conventional factors, substitute geographic distance with transport cost in connection with corridor performance, and strive to give a better explanation of factors that affect Xinjiang’s foreign trade performance. Empirical study indicates, of corridor performance, transport cost is a main hindrance to trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries; in Central Asian countries, size of economy, population and FDI are conducive to trade development; WTO accession does not affect trade volume in any significant manner. Corridor performance is significantly correlated to trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries, and its improvement may promote Xinjiang’s foreign trade growth. In the context of the “the Belt and Road” (B&R), China needs to strengthen its influence in Central Asian countries through international cooperation, outbound investment and corridor performance.

Hungary's place on Eurasian rail land bridges and the eastern opening

In early 21st century global financial crisis changed economic position of many states, including EU, which is only slowly recovering, and quickly emerging economies of Asia. Several factors in global transportation have driven countries to fi nd alternative transport links and methods, including between Europe and Asia. Since 2010 government of Hungary has shift ed focus of Hungarian foreign policy towards the East, which can be perceived as an interest-based real policy. The above factors and Hungary's landlocked position gave a renewed impetus to so-called Eurasian land bridge issue, which intends to connect Central and Eastern Europe and East Asia on land. As authors argue, after comparing foreign strategies of CEE countries, eastern opening of Hungary is not a unique move in region, neither is renewed interest in rail land bridges. However, aft er examining all possible land routes towards East Asia, authors agree with those who see these routes as unsustainable in short run. On other hand, moves of Chinese private and state-owned companies in Southeast Europe and CEE, New Silk Road concept of Chinese diplomacy and expansion of Suez Canal may foresee establishment of micro land-bridges from SEE ports via Hungary towards Western Europe, significantly shortening routes and avoiding congested northwestern ports. In this regard Hungary may play an important role on these alternative routes providing economic and geopolitical benefits.