EU Leaders Research Articles

Современные геополитические перспективы Турции в Европейском союзе

Geopolitical vectors of the modern Republic of Turkey are considerably subject to changes recently. Before balancing between a pantyurkizm, Pan-Islamism and a pro-European vector, modern Turkey under the direction of the conservative-minded Justice Party drifts towards a neoottoman vector. The constant conflicts with the management of the European Union and the certain European countries of political and ideological character only fuel tension of Ankara and Brussels. As a subject of scientific research questions and the prospects of the European integration of Turkey are in details considered and analysed by both the European, and Turkish experts and analysts. In the analysis of the set problem it is necessary to emphasize lack of intra elite consensus in Turkey on the prospects of the European integration. It is separately necessary to emphasize positions of the key European states concerning the prospects of the European integration of Turkey: if France and Germany are rather skeptic about accession of Turkey to the European Union owing to authoritative character of a political regime of Erdogan and continuous human rights violations from their point of view, then Great Britain up to a referendum of 2016 rather loyally treated a possibility of the entry of Ankara for weakening of influence of Berlin and Paris in the EU and braking of processes of internal integration. It is important to emphasize that the modern Turkish leaders don't consider the European integration as the direction, priority for itself any more. Therefore now the EU leaders and Turkey are anxious with search of the options of further cooperation accepted for both parties in those areas where the parties have common interests or can compromise.

Migrantes forzosos e irregulares y la actuación de la UE en la gestión de la crisis transfronteriza

El artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación sobre la respuesta de la UE a la crisis provocada por el crecimiento de la afluencia de inmigrantes irregulares llegados a Europa en 2011 y en los años posteriores. La primera sección examina las causas de los flujos migratorios actuales en términos generales y explica por qué muchos ciudadanos europeos y líderes políticos se muestran hostiles a la llegada de los inmigrantes, cuando la mayoría de ellos se han visto obligados a abandonar sus hogares. En la segunda sección, se analiza la gestión de la crisis migratoria por parte de los líderes de la UE a través de los conceptos y herramientas del proyecto TransCrises, una investigación Horizonte2020 sobre la gestión de riesgos y crisis transfronterizos. En concreto, esta sección analiza cómo los líderes de la UE han llevado a cabo las siete tareas de gestión que los expertos consideran importantes para que una crisis no produzca consecuencias dañinas. En la sección final, se evalúa la gestión de la crisis migratoria en la UE y se brindan consejos para mejorar su gestión.

Salvaging the European Union: The Inclusive Multi-Track Supranational Option

AbstractThe EU has many supranational accomplishments to its credit. Frictions nonetheless exist within the EU because some members want to rollback parts of the consensus (“less Europe”) and others want to expand them (“more Europe”). The conflict cannot be amicably resolved as EU leaders are trying to do in a one-track supranational regime because both factions disagree about whether confederation or federation is best. A solution in a one-track system requires one side to capitulate to the other. This is why the EU is at an impasse. However, the conflict is easily resolved by switching from a one-track to a multi-track supranational system that allows advocates of “more Europe” and “less Europe” to do as they like in some areas, while acting collectively wherever consensus permits. The EU already accepts the multi-track principle with regard to the euro and non-euro zones, and could restore harmony to the European project by applying the principle more broadly.

Brexit and its Implications for European Integration

On the eve of 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, the UK voted to withdraw from the EU (so-called Brexit). The implications for European integration and EU policies are far from clear and require further investigation. This paper aims to answer: what does Brexit imply for European integration? What messages were sent to the EU from the UK referendum? Did EU leaders interpret these messages and implications correctly and did they respond with the right policy? After examining the competing interpretations, this paper argues that the sharp divisions between different socio-economic classes shown in voting behaviour highlight the imperative of addressing economic inequality and distributive injustice, which are rooted in the structural flaws of EU governance and have been aggravated by the mismanagement of the Euro crisis. To move European integration forward and to keep a ‘political Europe’ sustainable, a ‘social Europe’ making an ‘economic Europe’ more inclusive and fair is required.

Structure of Ego-Alter Relationships of Politicians in Twitter

We analyze the ego-alter Twitter networks of 300 Italian MPs and 18 European leaders, and of about 14,000 generic users. We find structural properties typical of social environments, meaning that Twitter activity is controlled by constraints that are similar to those shaping conventional social relationships. However, the evolution of ego-alter ties is very dynamic, which suggests that they are not entirely used for social interaction, but for public signaling and self-promotion. From this standpoint, the behavior of EU leaders is much more evident, while Italian MPs are in between them and generic users. We find that politicians, more than generic users, create relationships as a side effect of tweeting on discussion topics, rather than by contacting specific alters.

Local Governance in the Age of Austerity in Greece and the Impact of the EU Leader Approach in the Region of Peloponnesus

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the austerity measures that have been introduced in Greece since 2010 in the patterns of local governance, with a specific focus on the case of the Leader approach for rural development in the Greek region of Peloponnesus. It deploys mixed qualitative techniques in order to outline the changes in local governance capacity and autonomy that resulted from the implementation of the two Memorandums of Understanding and the mid-term Fiscal Strategy since 2010. The diminished local governance capacity and autonomy, and the significant trends towards recentralization are revealed. These are more profound in the case of the five Leader programmes implemented in the region of Peloponnesus. The conclusions drawn by the paper put into serious doubt the mainstream assumptions concerning the impact of austerity measures on the patterns of governance in Greece in general and on local governance in particular.

Lessons Learnt from the EU‐Turkey Refugee Agreement in Guiding EU Migration Partnerships with Origin and Transit Countries

AbstractSince it took effect, the EU‐Turkey refugee agreement has been the subject of intense debate. While critics argue that it was politically short‐sighted, others point out that quick action was necessary to avert both a humanitarian crisis in Greece and the collapse of the Schengen system due to the unwillingness of EU member states to share responsibility. Since the agreement took effect, the most serious problems lay in the implementation process, which has revealed a troubling tendency among EU leaders to disregard the fundamental human rights abuses in Turkey. In the southeast, for example, the Turkish government is waging a full‐blown war against its Kurdish population, while a failed coup d’état in July 2016 put the country under a state of emergency that has led to even greater repression and growing reports of violations of asylum law. Ultimately, this agreement may fail, but it will remain necessary for the EU to cooperate with Turkey in order to control migration and work towards developing a comprehensive migration policy. Drawing on lessons from the agreement, this paper shall consider ways forward for future EU migration agreements with third countries.

Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote

This article investigates forces that shaped the decisions voters made in the 23 June 2016 referendum on the UK’s continued membership in the European Union. A multivariate model informed by previous research on voting in major ‘‘polity-shaping’ referendums is employed assess factors affecting how voters cast their ballots in the EU referendum. Employing data gathered in a national panel survey conducted before and after the referendum, analyses document that economic- and immigration-focused benefit-cost evaluations strongly influenced voters’ decisions. Risk assessments, emotional reactions to EU membership and leader image heuristics were other major proximate forces driving the choices voters made. National identities were influential as well, but operated further back in the set of forces affecting attitudes towards the EU. The June 23rd Brexit decision thus reflected a diverse mix of calculations, emotions and cues. Given the close division of the vote, it is plausible that a substantial change in any of these factors could have changed the referendum outcome.

Relacje bilateralne Ukraina–Rosja w trakcie prezydentury Wiktora Janukowycza – miesiąc miodowy czy przymusowe małżeństwo?

The victory of Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential election seemed to have normalized the relations between official Kyiv and Moscow. Yet, a number of strategic issues in bilateral relations were not solved. The Ukrainian leaders were deeply concerned about the Russia’s rigid position in the energy sector. The Russian leadership made little concession in Ukraine’s moving toward European integration. Moreover, at the turn of the summer and autumn of 2013, the Russian Federation totally blocked the movement of goods between the two countries for an uncertain period of time, thus forcing official Kyiv to refuse to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. The growing Russian pressure initially provoked resistance from Viktor Yanukovych. The steps he took proved that the pro-European statements of the Ukrainian leadership were about to be carried out. However, the aggravating tension and increasing pressure from Russia and, to some extent, the reluctance of EU leaders to provide financial guarantees to the corrupt Ukrainian leadership, pushed Yanukovych to abandon the European integration altogether.

Brexit, A Drama: The Interregnum

In an earlier article I charted the legal and political events from David Cameron’s Bloomberg speech in 2013 until the outcome of the referendum, including the beginning of the legal challenge to the way in which Article 50 TEU could be triggered. This article continues the story, covering the period after the referendum to the present. The approach in the earlier article is preserved, employing the metaphor of an unfolding drama, with Shakespearian quotations appropriately chosen for each Act or Scene. This article therefore begins with Act 7, following on from Act 6 of the previous piece. Act 7 is entitled ‘In Search of a Negotiating Strategy’, and is divided into three scenes. It introduces the leading political ‘players’ in the UK, the EU and the capitals of prominent EU Member States that shaped political developments over this period, and will continue to do so during the Brexit negotiations. The analysis then shifts to evolution of the ‘plan’, connoting choice between a hard or soft Brexit strategy, how this unfolded over the Autumn of 2016 and was clarified in the Spring of 2017. The final scene of this Act focuses on the fact that the Brexit plan as it evolved in Westminster was intended to be a ‘plan for the UK’, in which the devolved parliaments and assemblies would have voice. There was, however, a significant mismatch between Westminster rhetoric and political reality, and the views of the devolved assemblies were largely ignored both substantively and procedurally. Act 8 is entitled ‘In Search of the Exit Trigger’. At the same time as the UK government was deliberating on its Brexit negotiating strategy, it was fighting a legal battle of its own making to ascertain the constitutional legal requirements for triggering Article 50 TEU. The government contended that this could be done through recourse to the prerogative, without seeking authority from Parliament. The claimants contested this assumption. The claimants won and the government lost, both in the Divisional Court and in the Supreme Court. The first scene of this Act, ‘the legal’, provides an overview of the central legal and constitutional arguments in the case. The second scene, ‘the political’, stands back and looks at the broader picture, arguing that this was a legal fight that the government was always likely to lose and never had to fight. The discussion concludes with reflection as to why the House of Commons was quiescent when afforded the opportunity for voice by the courts. Act 9 continues the motif of search, being entitled ‘In Search of an Agreement’. The story picks up after the formal triggering of Article 50, beginning with the first scene, ‘reaction’, connoting the response of the EU to the Prime Minister’s letter triggering Article 50. The ink was barely dry on this letter, when she lost the first round of the negotiations. The UK had argued strenuously that discussion concerning withdrawal and future trade should proceed in parallel. This was rejected by the European Council, and prominent EU leaders. The negotiations were instead to be phased, such that discourse concerning trade would not begin until sufficient progress had been made on withdrawal. The negotiations did not in fact begin until 19 June 2017, because of the intervening UK general election. It is the subject of the second scene, ‘temptation’, which explains why the Prime Minister could not resist calling a snap election, even though she had asseverated that she would not do so. The rest, as they say, is history, with the prospects of Prime Ministerial electoral triumph dashed on the rocks of shifting voter affiliation within but a few weeks. The scene ends with discussion of the electoral impact on the unfolding Brexit negotiations. The final scene, ‘negotiation’, charts the way in which discussions concerning the key issues of the withdrawal agreement, people, money, and borders have unfolded thus far, including the fault lines concerning future trade relations between the UK and the EU.

Social Challenges of Electricity Transmission: Grid Deployment in Germany, the United Kingdom, and Belgium

The European Union needs to decarbonize its energy generation to reach its goals of climate change mitigation and energy security policies. In 2011, the European Commission published a road map to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) by at least 80% by 2050. The road map foresees five pathways, and, across all of them, renewable energy generation plays a significantly stronger role today. The deployment of renewable energy sources (RES ) to generate electricity is one possible option to decarbonize energy generation. The goals of the European energy security policy require restructuring energy generation toward a greater share of lowcarbon energy generation. In October 2014, EU leaders agreed on the 2030 policy framework for climate and energy, which settles the GHG reduction target of 40% compared to 1990, as well as an increase of the share of renewable energy to at least 27% of EU energy consumption by 2030.

As British leaders look to slow things down, EU leaders may push for faster exit

As British leaders look to slow things down, EU leaders may push for faster exit

THE ISSUE IS NOT CLOSED: WHICH SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAMIGHT BE LIFTED

THE ISSUE IS NOT CLOSED: WHICH SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAMIGHT BE LIFTED

The Five Presidents’ Report: the dogs bark but the caravan moves on?

ABSTRACTWhile both the academic literature and public discourse criticized EU measures, taken to pull out of the economic and financial crisis that started in 2008, for including counter democratic elements, EU leaders seem to be using the crisis as leverage towards obtaining full financial and economic integration. Analysing the ‘Five Presidents Report’ the article explores this growing dichotomy, trying to assess whether it reflects a growing, unbridgeable ‘democratic deficit’, or alternatively, whether the report acknowledges this critique, thus suggesting ways to decrease the ‘democratic deficit’.

The impact of EU governance and rural development policy on the development of the third sector in rural Poland: A nation-wide analysis

Governance and rural development programmes such as the European Union's LEADER programme are claimed in the policy literature to mobilise the involvement of the third sector in local development decision-making. Tracing the emergence of the third sector from the collapse of the socialist regime in the late 1980s to the aftermath of Poland's EU LEADER programme, this paper presents nation-wide data relating to the changing profile of the third sector in Poland's rural areas over time. Our analysis suggests that the implementation of the Polish LEADER + Pilot Programme (2004–2006) and the LEADER 4th Axis in Rural Development Programme (2007–2013) resulted in a significant increase in the number of third sector organisations. Using secondary data to examine the factors attributed to this increase, we found that the financial support offered by the LEADER programme incentivised the formal registration of third sector organisations. However, an analysis of primary data found that third sector organisations' dependence on acquiring funding constrained how they identified and achieved their own objectives. Nonetheless, we found that active involvement of the third sector in LAGs had a positive impact on the latter's engagement with local inhabitants in activities such as formulating local development strategies. We conclude that now, over a decade since the initiation of the Polish LEADER programme, the third sector has grown exponentially but its institutional character remains in flux. The presence of the third sector, its resources, and its power in rural governance is patchy. A greater period of time and targeted policy supports are required for the third sector to have a more defined and powerful presence in inter-sectoral partnerships and in rural areas more generally.

The Great European Unraveling?

After Britain voted to leave the EU, the European dream of a united continent is at risk but not dead. The Atlantic Council's Alina Polyakova argues that EU leaders must create opportunities for young people to reap the benefits of the economic bloc's accomplishments. Unless a new generation is made a political priority, it could be on the verge of being lost to the far-right populist parties sweeping across Europe.

Broken Systems: The 2014 Humanitarian Crisis in the Us and Policy Insights for Europe

Both the US and Europe are grappling with migration systems in need of reform and repair. The US has made several attempts towards a comprehensive reform of its immigration system, but partisan divides stand in the way. With large numbers of migrants and asylum seekers coming to Europe, EU leaders have been forced to address the broken Dublin system. It has become clear that the current refugee crisis is not just a European crisis. The US has also been facing a humanitarian crisis, one less noticed by Europeans. With an unprecedented number of unaccompanied minors trying to make their way to the US from Central American countries, the US–-like Europe–-is tasked with balancing humanitarian protection and border control requirements. In response, the US has employed policy responses to bring down the number of unaccompanied minors. These measures can provide insights for Europe.

The role of network bridging organisations in compensation payments for agri-environmental services under the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Compensation payments to farmers for the provision of agri-environmental services are a well-established policy scheme under the EU Common Agricultural Policy. However, in spite of the success in most EU countries in the uptake of the programme by farmers, the impact of the scheme on the long term commitment of farmers to change their practices remains poorly documented. To explore this issue, this paper presents the results of structured field interviews and a quantitative survey in the Walloon Region of Belgium. The main finding of this study is that farmers who have periodic contacts with network bridging organisations that foster cooperation and social learning in the agri-environmental landscapes show a higher commitment to change. This effect is observed both for farmers with high and low concern for biodiversity depletion. Support for network bridging organisations is foreseen under the EU Leader programme and the EU regulation 1306/2013, which could open-up interesting opportunities for enhancing the effectiveness of the current payment scheme for agri-environmental services.

The Deeper Euro-Crisis or: The Collapse of the EU Political Culture of Total Optimism

Although several dimensions of the present euro-crisis have been analysed by students of European integration, the impact of the crisis on the political culture of EU leaders has been largely overlooked. The political culture of a nation, a social class or, in case of the EU, an elite consists of a system of beliefs, symbols, and values – the latter including conceptions of purpose – that defines the situation in which political action takes place. One of the roots of the traditional political culture of EU leaders was the Monnet strategy of fait accompli, which consisted in pushing ahead with integration without worrying about either public support or democratic legitimation. This approach was supported by the prevailing emphasis on the process of integration rather than on the concrete results of specific collective decisions. The most serious consequence of the political culture shared by most EU leaders was the tendency to disregard both feasibility constraints and the limits of collective action. Under the impact of the euro-crisis total optimism has been replaced by panic-driven austerity. The paper concludes by calling attention to the fact that there are various alternative approaches to regional (in particular, European) integration. One approach deserving particular attention in the present situation is the functional – rather than territorial – approach advocated by David Mitrany in the 1940s and by Ralph Dahrendorf in the 1970s.

How to not speak the ‘F‐word’: Federalism between mirage and imperative in the euro crisis

AbstractThe recent financial and debt crisis has resuscitated the debate about European federalism – a theme that seemed not to have survived the painful constitutional adventure that ended with the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009. With the adoption of significant policy and institutional measures for tightening macroeconomic and budgetary coordination (including a constitutionally enshrined debt brake), the reforms of the monetary union have undisputedly brought the European Union further on the path towards an ever closer union. In an era where EU integration has been increasingly politicised, and Euroscepticism has been on the rise and exploited by anti‐system parties, national leaders have to face a political hiatus and respond to increased needs for symbolic and discursive legitimation of further federalisation. This is all the more crucial for French and German leaders who have brokered the main decisions during the crisis of the eurozone. Against this background, the purpose of this article is not to assess whether, or to what extent, the recent reforms of economic and monetary union have made the EU more federal. Rather, the purpose is to tackle the following puzzle: How have EU leaders legitimised the deepening of federal integration in a context where support for more European federalism is at its lowest? To elucidate this, a lexicographic discourse analysis is conducted based on all speeches held by the German Chancellor Merkel and the two French Presidents Sarkozy and Hollande, previous to, or after European summits from early 2010 until the spring of 2013. The findings indicate that federalism is both taboo and pervasive in French and German leaders' discourse. The paradox is barely apparent, though. While the ‘F‐word’ is rarely spoken aloud, two distinctive visions co‐exist in the French and German discourse. The coming of age of a political union through constitutional federalism is pictured as ineluctable, yet as a distant mirage out of reach of today's decision makers. At the same time, the deepening of functional federalism in order to cope with economic interdependence is a ubiquitous imperative that justifies further integration. The persisting gap between the constitutional and the functional vision of European federalism has crucial implications. Insofar as the Union is held responsible for not delivering successful economic policy, political leaders will fail to legitimise both functional and constitutional federalism.