Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote

Abstract

This article investigates forces that shaped the decisions voters made in the 23 June 2016 referendum on the UK’s continued membership in the European Union. A multivariate model informed by previous research on voting in major ‘‘polity-shaping’ referendums is employed assess factors affecting how voters cast their ballots in the EU referendum. Employing data gathered in a national panel survey conducted before and after the referendum, analyses document that economic- and immigration-focused benefit-cost evaluations strongly influenced voters’ decisions. Risk assessments, emotional reactions to EU membership and leader image heuristics were other major proximate forces driving the choices voters made. National identities were influential as well, but operated further back in the set of forces affecting attitudes towards the EU. The June 23rd Brexit decision thus reflected a diverse mix of calculations, emotions and cues. Given the close division of the vote, it is plausible that a substantial change in any of these factors could have changed the referendum outcome.