Casualty Estimation Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Tsunami Casualty Estimation Approaches: Agent-Based Modeling versus Simplified Approach in Japanese Coastal Cities

AbstractEstimating potential casualties from a significant earthquake and tsunami event is crucial to enhance disaster preparedness and response. Although various approaches exist to assess potential casualties, few studies have made direct comparisons between them. The present study aimed to clarify the differences in the estimation of casualties between an agent-based model (ABM), which can capture detailed evacuation behavior but demands significant computational resources, and a simplified approach at less computational cost by assuming that evacuees would move along a straight line from their initial location to the closest evacuation destination. These different approaches were applied to three coastal cities in Japan—Mihama, Kushimoto, and Shingu in Wakayama Prefecture—revealing significant differences in the estimated results between the ABM and the simplified approach. Notably, when the effects of building collapse due to an earthquake were considered, the mortality rates estimated by the ABM were higher than those estimated by the simplified approach in the three cities. There were also significant differences in the spatial distribution of the estimated mortality rates between the ABM and the simplified approach. The findings suggest that while the simplified approach can yield results more quickly, casualty estimates derived from such models should be interpreted with caution.

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas

Accurately and reasonably assessing earthquake casualties is crucial for seismic disaster planning and governmental decision-making. However, current research on earthquake casualty assessments often lacks sufficient consideration of the uncertainties related to seismic scenarios and influencing factors. To enhance the authenticity and reliability of casualty assessments, this study proposes a seismic casualty assessment model capable of simultaneously considering multiple influencing factors. It quantitatively evaluates each influencing factor and comprehensively integrates the uncertainty characteristics associated with seismic occurrence time, building damage states, and the number of occupants. Using a residential area as an example, the research compares casualty assessment results with and without considering apartment layouts and the age structure of residents. It also explains the probabilistic method for quantifying casualties and constructing vulnerability models for seismic events in the residential area. Additionally, a simplified analytical method applicable to probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in masonry residential areas in Beijing is proposed. The research findings indicate that the apartment layouts within buildings have a relatively minor impact on the assessment results of casualties in the residential area, while the age structure of residents significantly affects earthquake casualty estimates. Casualty rates in the residential area, considering uncertainties in the three factors, approximately follow a log-normal distribution. For seismic intensities ranging from VI(0.05g) to IX(0.40g), the standard deviation of casualty rates across different seismic intensities exceeds 0.4. The probabilistic analysis method proposed in this study enhances existing models for earthquake casualty assessments and addresses the shortcomings in probabilistic evaluation research.

SIMULATING VICTIM HEALTH STATE EVOLUTION FROM PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL INJURIES IN MASS CASUALTY INCIDENTS

The field of discrete-event simulation for medical disaster management is relatively new. In such simulations, human victims are generated using pre-determined transitions from one health state to the next, based on a set of triggers that correspond to treatment or the clinical progression of untreated injuries or diseases. However, this approach does not account for subtle differences in clinical progression. We propose a parameter-based model to characterize the evolution of symptoms at first for physical and nerve agent chemical injuries. We used a Gompertz function to predict the time of death in trauma based on forensic data. Then we separately considered the effects of the chemical warfare agent sarin (GB) being the origin of the chemical injuries for the purpose of modelling a GB attack in a metro station. We emphasize that our approach can be extended to other CBRN threats pending knowledge of clinical progressions available in the literature for the purpose of casualty estimations. The intent is to provide an estimate of time to death without any treatment and overlay this model with a treatment model, improving the evolution of the health state. A modification for non-life-threatening injuries is included without losing generality. Improvement functions modelling medical treatment are proposed. We argue that the availability of injury scores vs mortality can greatly enhance the validity of the model.

Estimation of Human Casualties Due to Earthquakes: Overview and Application of Literature Models with Emphasis on Occupancy Rate

Estimation of Human Casualties Due to Earthquakes: Overview and Application of Literature Models with Emphasis on Occupancy Rate

Loss Functions for the Risk Assessment of Residential Buildings

Within the ReLUIS 2019–2021 research project (Network of the University Laboratories of Seismic Engineering) supported by the Civil Protection Department (DPC), the Work Package WP4 “Seismic Risk and Damage Maps at National scale—MARS” aimed to update the 2018 version of the National Risk Assessment (NRA). One of the goals of the WP4—MARS was to collect, analyse and upgrade loss models to estimate direct economic losses, unusable buildings and casualties (Task 4.4—“Risk: evaluation of consequences and economic losses”). Task 4.4 aimed to carry out a critical review of the models available in the literature and subsequently specific comparisons to better understand the capability and reliability of the different models, in particular those adopted to calculate the seismic losses in the 2018 NRA. Furthermore, the derivation of new models in order to improve the results of the previous study was another goal of the project. The paper focuses on the assessment and calibration of models and tools to derive human casualties (deaths and injured) and usability rating as well as repair costs and population assistance costs associated with residential buildings damaged by seismic actions. In detail, the available literature on Casualty Estimation Models (CEMs) is analysed, and an updated model is calibrated to estimate human casualties for the Italian context. The model emphasises a relationship between the casualties and the severity of the damage. A strong correlation exists between the post-earthquake usability of buildings, damage state (DS), repair costs and time required to assist the population. According to data collected in the reconstruction processes of recent Italian earthquakes, fragility curves in terms of loss-of-usability for partially unusable and unusable buildings and the correlation between usability ratings (immediately available post-earthquake) and DS (easily computable by using existing empirical- or mechanical-based fragility functions) are defined. Finally, consequence functions able to associate direct costs (repair costs) and indirect costs (population assistance) have been calibrated as a function of buildings’ usability or damage state.

Bias in Flood Hazard Grid Aggregation

AbstractReducing flood risk through disaster planning and risk management requires accurate estimates of exposure, damage, casualties, and environmental impacts. Models can provide such information; however, computational or data constraints often lead to the construction of such models by aggregating high‐resolution flood hazard grids to a coarser resolution, the effect of which is poorly understood. Through the application of a novel spatial classification framework, we derive closed‐form solutions for the location (e.g., flood margins) and direction of bias from flood grid aggregation independent of any study region. These solutions show bias of some key metric will always be present in regions with marginal inundation; for example, inundation area will be positively biased when water depth grids are aggregated and volume will be negatively biased when water surface elevation grids are aggregated through averaging. In a separate computational analysis, we employ the same framework to a 2018 flood and successfully reproduce the findings of our study‐region‐independent derivation. Extending the investigation to the exposure of buildings, we find regions with marginal inundation are an order of magnitude more sensitive to aggregation errors, highlighting the importance of understanding such artifacts for flood risk modelers. Of the two aggregation routines considered, averaging water surface elevation grids better preserved flood depths at buildings than averaging of water depth grids. This work provides insight into, and recommendations for, aggregating grids used by flood risk models.

Estimation of earthquake safety escape time and casualties in Chinese masonry buildings

To predict the number of casualties in dwellings when a strong earthquake occurs, this paper investigated the seismic performances of masonry buildings located in a rural town where earthquake occurs frequently with high earthquakes. The incremental dynamic analysis method was employed to estimate the available escape time and the collapse probability of building under those selected ground motions with a series of peak accelerations. Meanwhile, the required safety escape time of the building was obtained through evacuation simulation analysis. According to the safe evacuation criteria, the probability of casualties in terms of earthquake intensity measure was predicted. The results show that available escape time decreases with the increase of peak ground acceleration level. While the required safety escape time increases with the number of building layers subjoining; residents on the upper floors have a lower probability of escape. The present work implied that the residents on the higher floors must seek temporary security zones in their rooms to reduce casualties.

In Challenge of Approaching Casualties and Injured People Due to a Damaging Earthquake

During big earthquakes, one of the challenges for the decision maker is the estimation of the resources for the attention of the disaster which is computed based on the casualties and injured people, which is generated by damaging earthquake. In this investigation, two criteria for the estimation of casualties during damaging earthquake were presented forMw>6.5 in one target area, namely, Chorrillos district in the Lima metropolitan. First criterion considers the compilation of existing data that reports the casualties on damaged cities with a population density involved, considering the lifestyle, the time of occurrence, the season of the year, that could influence in the number of victims, which is normalized to avoid temporary effects in the estimation. The second criterion considers the output generated prior computed process such earthquake hazard, microzoning and risk analysis of the target area. Here a series of identification of parameters has been computed such as location of the source of earthquake, depth and epicentral distance, distribution of population, social levels, and others, to estimate the risk. For the computing of the number of casualties in the affected area, a relation between the magnitude and risk is developed. Both criteria provided results which with an uncertain measure, but not so far from each other. That gives us confidence in this approach. Also, we evaluate the estimation with the major earthquake’s scenarios for the region especially in Peru, with reasonable results.

Early Report of the Source Characteristics, Ground Motions, and Casualty Estimates of the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.5 Turkey Earthquakes

Early Report of the Source Characteristics, Ground Motions, and Casualty Estimates of the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.5 Turkey Earthquakes

Evaluating post-earthquake functionality and surge capacity of hospital emergency departments using discrete event simulation

Past earthquakes have illustrated the impacts of reduced hospital functionality due to physical damage resulting in a health service deficit immediately after a major seismic event. In this article, a methodology was developed to quantify the deficit in health care anticipated due to a loss of functionality of a hospital emergency department (ED) and a surge in demand due to regional damage in an earthquake scenario. Earthquake-induced patient arrivals were calculated using multi-severity casualty estimation for the catchment area of the hospital. The surge in patients (demand) was then compared to the ability of the hospital to treat patients (capacity) based on anticipated functionality. Nonlinear response history analysis of the hospital building was performed using simplified structural models, and the structural and non-structural component damage was estimated based on FEMA P-58. Expected damage was linked to the post-earthquake functionality of the ED service areas on each floor by incorporating the fault-tree analysis method. Finally, discrete event simulation was used to evaluate the ED surge capacity, providing hospital performance metrics, such as wait times (WTs) and length of stay (LOS) for patients of ranging acuity. A case study of a hospital in the City of Vancouver subjected to an Mw9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone scenario earthquake was presented. Emergency rooms (ERs) were identified as the ED bottleneck during the emergency response. The mean ER WT exceeded its limit of 2 h and reached up to 17 h in the most unfavorable simulation. Likewise, the mean LOS nearly doubled from 6.5 to 12 h, also exceeding the established target of 10 h. The deployment of field hospitals for less severe patients as an emergency plan to mitigate the ED overcrowding was also analyzed to demonstrate that the methodology can be used as a decision support tool to improve healthcare disaster planning.

Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm: neurosurgical experience and transformative legacy for operational medicine.

Operation Desert Storm (ODS) was an astounding success for combat arms and logistical units of the US Military. In contrast, Department of Defense (DOD) medical units struggled to keep pace with combat operations and were fortunate that casualty estimates for a Cold War-era battle failed to materialize. The medical support plan included a large contingent of active-duty and reserve neurosurgeons in anticipation of care requirements for more than 500,000 deploying service members engaged in a large-scale combat operation. Here, the authors review the clinical experience and operational challenges encountered by neurosurgeons deployed in support of this conflict and discuss legacies of ODS for both surgeons and the military medical system.

Citizens to Soldiers: Mobilization, Cost Perceptions, and Support for Military Action

Abstract Policymakers have long assumed, and scholars have long argued, that how a government raises military manpower affects public support for military action through two obvious mechanisms: the likelihood any given individual will be personally affected by the conflict, and the expected aggregate cost of the conflict. Increased costs are thought to cause the public to be more critical of the use of military force. But do they? We gain leverage on this question in the US context by employing a survey experiment that allows us both to compare reactions to a range of manpower policies—an all-volunteer standing force, conscription, and mobilization of the reserves—and to explicitly test multiple mechanisms—expectations of bearing personal cost, expectations of aggregate cost, and effects not explained by these cost expectations. Our results strongly suggest that manpower policies’ effects are not straightforward. Consistent with previous studies, we find that an expectation of conscription lowers public support for military action. Mobilization of the reserves, however, fails to diminish support, despite the fact that it should also affect more people and signal a larger conflict. While casualty estimates (proxy for scale) are negatively correlated with mission support, personal cost expectations are not. Furthermore, much of the variation between manpower treatments is not explained by either tested cost mechanism, suggesting a role for norms and values. These findings have implications for whether military manpower policies designed to impose political costs on policymakers are likely to work and for wider discussions of public support for military operations.

REVIEW OF ESTIMATION METHODS AND SYSTEMS USED TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKE CASUALTIES

Earthquake casualty estimation is key to earthquake resistance and hazard prevention planning prior to earthquakes and emergency rescue efforts after earthquakes. Scholars in the fields of earthquake engineering, geophysics, sociology, public health etc. have performed multi-perspective studies on this issue. Earthquake casualty assessment models are divided into global/regional models and local models. According to their relevant factors, they are categorized based on the appropriate seismic parameters and building fragility factors, and some researchers additionally consider the influence of secondary disasters and population characteristics. Following an introduction to the importance of earthquake casualty assessment work, traditional casualty estimation methods, and emerging methods combined with artificial intelligence, big data and spatial information technology are summarized in this review. The framework, technical foundation and application of earthquake loss estimation systems are introduced, and future development trends are envisioned.

Review of Military Casualties in Modern Conflicts-The Re-emergence of Casualties From Armored Warfare.

ABSTRACTIntroductionThe re-emergence of armored warfare in modern conflicts has resulted in a higher number of extremity injuries, burns, and brain injuries. Despite this dramatic increase, little is reported on the type of injuries caused and their management. This review summarizes the publicly available literature and reports on the rate and type of injuries related to armored warfare, their medical outcomes, and management limitations.Materials and MethodsThis rapid evidence review involves a systematic literature search, followed by a non-systematic literature review. The reason for choosing this approach was the inherent lack of quantitative outcome data in the literature to satisfy the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist. The study also used content analysis to study all peer-reviewed articles, focusing on similarities and differences in the findings necessary to formulate tentative results. The electronic search included PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, using the following search string: “Armored; Injuries; Mechanized; Morbidity; Mortality; War; Warfare”, alone or in combination.ResultsModern conflicts are associated with higher number of extremity injuries, burns, and brain injuries among military casualties. Several publications claim that the characteristics of armored warfare and anticipated injuries in this type of warfare might require the far forward deployment of medical support supported by a reliable casualty evacuation chain. Still the quality of the available casualty data is low.ConclusionsBecause of the limited availability of reliable data or military trauma registries, up-to-date military casualty estimation remains a recognized knowledge gap, which needs to be addressed by armed forces worldwide. The future management of modern war casualties requires professional and well-trained staff in all levels, indicating a need for educational initiatives to provide both nurses and medics a greater proportion of medical care and management capabilities and responsibilities than in past conflicts.

Developing GIS-based earthquake loss model: a case study of Baqiao District, China

Large earthquakes frequently occurred and caused substantial damage and losses in Chinese densely populated urban areas. It is worth clarifying that the existing earthquake loss assessment tools in China do not consider its special characteristics (e.g., tectonics, geology and building inventory). In this paper, an integrated framework for earthquake loss assessment in China is proposed and a geographic information system (GIS)-based system, referred to as China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System, is developed. The individual building is considered as the basic geographical unit and described in three levels (i.e., basic attributes, structural performance parameters, and functional parameters. A three-step data collection method is proposed, and the mobile GIS-based field collection tool is developed. A broad, reasonable, and upgradeable building typology is then presented for the seismic fragility assessment of building blocks. A new economic loss model and casualty model are also presented by considering the characteristics of economics and population. The proposed methodology is implemented in Baqiao District, and the estimation of economic losses and casualties under a scenario earthquake is discussed, which can provide information for urban disaster risk assessment and mitigation.

Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi (India): Interdisciplinary Requirements in Triage Management.

The human casualties from simulated nuclear detonation scenarios in New Delhi, India are analyzed, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments and the theoretical application of a nuclear-specific triage system with significant innovation in interdisciplinary disaster management applicable generally to urban nuclear detonation medical response. Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI’s ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency’s WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA’s) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for New Delhi, India for single and multiple (six) 25 kt detonations and a single 1 mt (1000 kt) detonation. Major issues related to the emergency management of a nuclear incident are discussed with specific recommendations for improvement. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Of particular importance is the interdisciplinary cooperation necessary for such a large-scale emergency response event, which would be exemplified by efforts such as the application of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce.

Early casualty estimates and medical help management after the M7.3 Kermanshah earthquake of November 12, 2017 in Iran.

Medical responses to fatal earthquakes have to be rapid to save lives. Here we report the QLARM alert that was issued less than an hour after the magnitude 7.3 Kermanshah, Iran, earthquake of 2017 and the following medical response. The near-real-time estimates of fatalities were 520, on average, and it took official and news reports about 2 days to settle on a minimum of 630 fatalities as a final count. The response of various Iranian agencies was rapid and effective, facilitated by the relatively small area of the disaster (radius of about 50 km). Although this disaster was not large enough to require international first responders to rush to the scene, it is clear that in very large earthquake disasters, a fast, accurately informed response saves lives. For international teams to be of optimal use, the locations and functionality levels of health facilities should be known. This information could be included in the earthquake alerts, but the necessary worldwide data on hospitals are currently not available.

Reconstituting social contracts in conflict-affected MENA countries: Whither Iraq and Libya?

Abstract This article discusses the prospects for forging new social contracts in highly fragile and conflict affected countries. Building on analytical insights from the political settlements and state fragility literature, conceptualising peacebuilding processes as efforts to forge social contracts enables us to address the roles of governments, social groups, citizens and external stakeholders. We discuss the potential for peacebuilding processes to realise social contracts by assessing societal perceptions of the core public good that citizens expect the state to provide, namely protection. We address two cases where ‘stateness’ was destroyed by foreign intervention and civil war: Iraq (since 2003) and Libya (since 2011). We discuss the troubled recent trajectories of efforts to build peace in Iraq and Libya along the substantive, spatial and temporal dimensions of the social contract. Drawing on interviews, survey results and estimates of civilian casualties, we take a ‘bottom-up’ perspective of their societies’ experiences and expectations regarding protection. We conclude that in both countries the provision of protection by the state and others runs counter to the expectations of significant parts of the population. At the national level, major social groups have been unable to overcome mutual distrust, while continued threats to physical security reduce the prospects that any social contract able to deliver other public goods can ever emerge. Existing political settlements in both countries have rewarded the politicization of ethno-sectarian identity (especially in Iraq) and have benefited economic war lordism (especially in Libya). We conclude that as social contracts at the national level are unlikely to emerge, the consequences of de-facto break ups of both countries must be acknowledged if social contracts at sub-national levels are to have any chance of delivering peace.

Optimization of the Casualties' Treatment Process: Blended Military Experiment.

At the battalion level, NATO ROLE1 medical treatment command focuses on the provision of primary health care being the very first physician and higher medical equipment intervention for casualty treatments. ROLE1 has paramount importance in casualty reductions, representing a complex system in current operations. This study deals with an experiment on the optimization of ROLE1 according to the key parameters of the numbers of physicians, the number of ambulances and the distance between ROLE1 and the current battlefield. The very first step in this study is to design and implement a model of current battlefield casualties. The model uses friction data generated from an already executed computer assisted exercise (CAX) while employing a constructive simulation to produce offense and defense scenarios on the flow of casualties. The next step in the study is to design and implement a model representing the transportation to ROLE1, its structure and behavior. The deterministic model of ROLE1, employing a system dynamics simulation paradigm, uses the previously generated casualty flows as the inputs representing human decision-making processes through the recorder CAX events. A factorial experimental design for the ROLE1 model revealed the recommended variants of the ROLE1 structure for both offensive and defensive operations. The overall recommendation is for the internal structure of ROLE1 to have three ambulances and three physicians for any kind of current operation and any distance between ROLE1 and the current battlefield within the limit of 20 min. This study provides novelty in the methodology of casualty estimations involving human decision-making factors as well as the optimization of medical treatment processes through experimentation with the process model.

Seismic estimation of casualties and direct economic loss to Byblos city: a contribution to the ‘100 resilient cities’ strategy

ABSTRACT Byblos, a Lebanese City, a UNESCO world heritage and one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities, is a member of the 100 Resilient Cities project. To help mitigate its stresses and chocks, Byblos is implementing its resilience strategy enclosing the five pillars: Connected, Resourceful, Peaceful, Cultural, and Thriving. Since the earthquake threat is not selected in this strategy, this study proposes to complement the 100 RC efforts and aims to urge Byblos Municipality authorities and governmental institutions to act based on concrete results offered, to provide emergency, prevention and recovery plans for the city and to enhance the civil protection. Therefore, first, we present the Byblos resilience strategy, identifying the city stresses and shocks, discussing its seismic threat and presenting complementary measures. Second, we model structural building damage, casualties, and buildings direct economic damage, including structural and nonstructural damage. Finally, results and recommendations are offered for an improved resilience strategy.