Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi (India): Interdisciplinary Requirements in Triage Management.

Samir P Desai,Frederick M Burkle,William C Bell,Curtis Harris,Cham E Dallas

doi:10.3390/ijerph18041740

Abstract

The human casualties from simulated nuclear detonation scenarios in New Delhi, India are analyzed, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments and the theoretical application of a nuclear-specific triage system with significant innovation in interdisciplinary disaster management applicable generally to urban nuclear detonation medical response. Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI’s ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency’s WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA’s) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for New Delhi, India for single and multiple (six) 25 kt detonations and a single 1 mt (1000 kt) detonation. Major issues related to the emergency management of a nuclear incident are discussed with specific recommendations for improvement. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Of particular importance is the interdisciplinary cooperation necessary for such a large-scale emergency response event, which would be exemplified by efforts such as the application of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce.

Highlights

The Kargil war of 1999 was significant as it occurred under the shadow of nuclear weapons possessed by both India and Pakistan
This study aimed to evaluate the potential human casualty impact of a nuclear weapon detonation in New Delhi, India utilizing injury distribution by trauma, thermal burns, and radiation exposure
Planning for urban nuclear detonations requires a programmatic approach to the distribution of limited resources for the massive medical and public health needs, which injury category distribution estimation has a significant potential to address

Summary

Introduction

Since their inception in 1947, the rivalry between India and Pakistan has resulted in four major military conflicts between the two nations in 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999. The Kargil war of 1999 was significant as it occurred under the shadow of nuclear weapons possessed by both India and Pakistan. Following the Cuban missile crisis, when the US and the Soviet Union came close to a nuclear weapon exchange, the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between nuclear powers was readily apparent, eventually leading to a substantial reduction in the nuclear arsenals of both nations. By contrast, repeated military conflicts between India and Pakistan have only led to an in-crease in rhetoric and brinksmanship.

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