Assessment of HPAC urban modelling capabilities using data from the Joint Urban 2003 field experiment

Abstract

An independent evaluation was conducted of four urban prediction models included in the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) (Version 4.0). This evaluation focused on comparing HPAC predictions with data obtained during the Joint Urban 2003 (JU03) field experiment in Oklahoma City. These models were run using a variety of meteorological inputs, including the results of forecast models and meteorological observations from the JU03 experiment. A particularly significant finding was a difference in model performance for daytime vs. nighttime tracer gas releases. Consistent significant differences in performance between models were only observed for nighttime releases.